SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Cleveland (6-4, 4-6 ATS) at Boston (7-3 SU and ATS)
The fourth-seeded Celtics will look to finish off the upset of LeBron James and the top-seeded Cavaliers in Game 6 of this best-of-7 conference semifinal series at TD Garden.
Boston manhandled Cleveland on Tuesday night in Game 5, steamrolling to a 120-88 victory as a 7½-point road underdog to move within one game of advancing to the conference finals for the second time in three years. Ray Allen had a game-high 25 points, hitting 6 of 9 from three-point range, Paul Pierce (21 points, 11 rebounds, seven assists) had his best game of the series, and Kevin Garnett chipped in 18 points. The Celts shot a stout 55 percent (44 of 80), making 8 of 15 from beyond the arc (53.3 percent) after going 1-for-14 in a Game 5 win at home.
Cleveland looked nothing like the team that earned the overall No. 1 seed for the playoffs, with James alarmingly ineffective in scoring just 15 points on 3-for-14 shooting and a 9-for-12 effort at the free-throw line. Aging Shaquille O’Neal had 21 points to lead the Cavs, who put just three players in double figures, compared with six for Boston. Cleveland shot 41.8 percent (28 of 68), going 5 of 15 from long distance (33.3 percent), and the Cavs got beat on the boards 41-31. They’ve been outrebounded by a combined 131-96 in their three losses in this series.
The Cavs and Celts split Games 3 and 4 in Boston, with Cleveland rolling 124-95 as a one-point pup last Friday and Boston responding with a 97-87 win Sunday as a 1½-point ‘dog.
Boston now holds a 5-4 SU and ATS edge against Cleveland this season, and the SU winner has covered in all nine games. In fact, the SU winner has cashed in 12 straight overall in this rivalry. The underdog is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four in this series and 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six clashes overall. Also, despite dropping the last two games SU and ATS, Cleveland remains on ATS runs against the C’s of 20-10-2 overall, 8-4 in postseason play and 8-4 at the Garden.
Boston is 28-18 SU but just 16-29-1 ATS in Beantown, where it averages 99.8 ppg (48.6 percent shooting) and gives up 96.2 (45.8 percent). In the playoffs, the Celtics are 4-1 SU and ATS at home. Cleveland is 28-17 SU (24-20-1 ATS) on the road this year (2-2 SU and ATS in the playoffs), averaging 101.7 ppg on 47.6 percent shooting while allowing 97.0 ppg (44.5 percent).
Along with their 7-3 ATS mark in the postseason, the Celtics are on pointspread upswings of 4-0 after a day off, 4-1 at home, 5-2 as a playoff chalk and 17-8 when laying less than five points. Still, Doc Rivers’ troops shoulder negative ATS streaks of 7-15 in second-round play, 3-9 after a SU win, 3-8 after a spread-cover and 11-25 as a home favorite.
The Cavaliers are on a handful of spread-covering slides, including 6-14 overall, 0-6 after a day off, 2-9 against winning teams and 4-10 after a SU defeat. On the flip side, they also carry positive pointspread streaks of 24-7 after a SU setback of more than 10 points, 4-1 after a double-digit home loss, 10-3-1 in second-round play and 8-3-1 as a road pup.
Boston is on “over” sprees of 13-6 overall (6-2 last eight), 7-3 inside the Garden, 9-3 against the Central Division and 6-0 after either a SU or an ATS win. Likewise, Cleveland is on “over” surges of 5-0 after a non-cover, 6-2 in roadies, 13-3 against the Atlantic Division and 4-1 as a playoff pup, though the Cavs also sport “under” stretches of 9-2 as a pup, 7-1 when getting less than five points on the road and 19-8 in second-round games.
Finally, Tuesday’s tilt soared over the 193½-point total, giving the over a 7-2 mark in this season’s nine meetings (3-2 in the playoffs). Furthermore, the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Boston, with only Sunday’s Game 4 contest falling short of the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Diego (21-12) at San Francisco (18-14)
The Padres go for their second three-game sweep of the Giants this season when they send young right-hander Mat Latos (2-3, 4.19 ERA) to the AT&T Park mound, while the hosts counter with southpaw Jonathan Sanchez (2-2, 3.00 ERA)
San Diego followed up Tuesday’s 3-2 victory with a 5-2 triumph on Wednesday. The Padres have climbed to the top of the division standings thanks to an 18-6 overall run, going 8-3 on the highway during this stretch (6-1 last seven on the road). On top of that, Bud Black’s team is on positive runs of 9-3 against N.L. West foes, 22-8 against winning teams and 6-0 against left-handed starters. On the downside, San Diego has dropped nine of 13 on Thursday and four straight when playing the third game of a series.
San Francisco has lost four of five overall, but despite losing the last two nights, the Giants are 14-7 in their last 21 at AT&T Park (10-7 this year). However, Bruce Bochy’s bunch have now dropped seven of nine divisional contests, going 0-5 against the Padres this season.
San Diego has held the Giants to a total of six runs in five meetings this season. Also, the Padres have won eight of the last 10 matchups dating to last September, going 5-1 in San Francisco. Still, the home team remains on a 16-7 roll in this rivalry.
Latos is coming off his best performance of his brief career, allowing just two hits over eight innings in Friday’s 7-0 victory at Houston. The 22-year-old Virginia native didn’t walk a batter and had a career-best nine strikeouts. Since getting destroyed in a 10-1 loss at Florida (seven runs allowed in 2 2/3 innings), Latos has surrendered just two runs and eight hits in 14 innings against the Brewers (2-1 home loss) and Astros.
In addition to his outstanding performance at Houston and a horrible outing at Florida, Latos’ only other road start this season came in Colorado in his season debut, and he gave up four runs in six innings, getting a no-decision in San Diego’s 5-4 win. Also, in his only career start at San Francisco, Latos outpitched Sanchez in a 1-0 home win on April 20, scattering four hits and a walk in seven shutout innings.
Sanchez gave up a season-high four runs on seven hits in seven innings at the Mets on Friday, failing to get a decision in the Giants’ 6-4 home loss. It was the first time in eight starts dating to last year that Sanchez surrendered more than three runs in a game. In his first five outings in 2010, the lefty surrendered just eight runs in 29 innings (2.48 ERA), going 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA four home starts. San Francisco is 4-1 in his last five at home.
Sanchez suffered the tough-luck 1-0 loss in San Diego on April 20 despite surrendering just the one run on one hit with three walks and 10 strikeouts in seven innings. On July 10 last year, Sanchez threw a no-hitter against the Padres in an 8-0 home victory. He’s 2-3 with a 2.56 ERA in 14 career games (seven starts) against San Diego, including 1-2 with a 1.65 ERA in his last four starts versus the Padres.
The Padres are on “under” streaks of 5-0 overall, 20-7-1 on the road, 19-7-1 versus the N.L. West, 13-4 against winning teams, 25-11-2 as an underdog, 17-5-1 as a road pup and 3-1 in Latos’ last four starts. However, 17 of San Diego’s last 22 Thursday contests have hurdled the total.
San Francisco topped the total in four of its last six games overall, but otherwise the Giants carry “under” trends of 11-1 at home, 9-0 in divisional games, 9-3 as a favorite, 5-0 as a home chalk, 30-13-2 in the third game of a series, 4-1 in Sanchez’s last five starts overall and 3-0 in his last three home efforts.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under has cashed in seven straight clashes overall and 11 of 15 in San Francisco.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
DUNKEL INDEX
Cleveland at Boston
The Celtics look to close out the series and take advantage of a Cleveland team that is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games when playing with 1 day of rest. Boston is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Celtics favored by 11. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-1)
Game 741-742: Cleveland at Boston (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 118.311; Boston 129.512
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 11; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 1; 196
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-1); Over
MLB
Oakland at Texas
The A's look to bounce back from yesterday's 10-1 drubbing and build on their 6-0 record in their last 6 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Oakland is the pick (+155) according to Dunkel, which has the A's favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+155)
Game 901-902: Houston at St. Louis (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Norris) 13.808; St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.105
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-270); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-270); Over
Game 903-904: San Diego at San Francisco (3:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Latos) 15.961; San Francisco (Sanchez) 14.997
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+120); Under
Game 905-906: NY Mets at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Santana) 15.167; Florida (Johnson) 15.947
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-130); Under
Game 907-908: Washington at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Lannan) 16.530; Colorado (Chacin) 15.513
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-210); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+180); Over
Game 909-910: Seattle at Baltimore (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 15.191; Baltimore (Millwood) 14.531
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Seattle (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-130); Under
Game 911-912: NY Yankee at Detroit (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.843; Detroit (Verlander) 16.203
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-130); Under
Game 913-914: Oakland at Texas (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Sheets) 16.597; Texas (Wilson) 16.229
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+155); Over
Game 915-916: Cleveland at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Huff) 15.556; Kansas City (Greinke) 14.814
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+170); Over
Matt Fargo
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Money Line: 121
The Yankees snapped their three-game skid with a win in the second game of Wednesday’s doubleheader behind yet another strong effort from Phil Hughes. New York hardly needed another strong arm in the rotation but Hughes has provided that in the fifth spot. The Tigers remain solid at home despite that late defeat as they are 11-4 at home on the season and remain three games behind Minnesota in the American League Central. Now the Yankees go with their ace C.C. Sabathia who has been strong again this season with just a couple lapses. Both of his non-quality efforts, which amount to just two in seven starts, both came in Boston against the Red Sox and I can see him struggling here against a potent Tigers lineup. Detroit has not hit lefties particularly well this season but it is a respectable 4-3 against southpaw starters. Sabathia has had more success at home this year and he has struggled in the past with the Tigers. In 28 career starts he has a very average 4.50 ERA and only three of his last seven starts against Detroit have been quality performances. He has a 5.89 ERA over those seven outings including an 8.25 ERA in two starts in Detroit. Detroit counters with its ace in Justin Verlander and he too has been up and down although it looks like he has fixed whatever ailed him early on in the season. He has a 1.80 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over his last three starts with two of those being quality and the lone exception was a game where he allowed no runs but missed the quality tag by just a third of an inning. He faced the Yankees twice last season and both results were quality performances including the one game in Detroit where he allowed no runs in seven innings of work in a 4-2 Tigers win. Play on home teams with a moneyline between +125 and -125 with a starting pitcher whose strikes out five or more batters per start and with a WHIP of 1.00 or better over his last three starts. This situation is 71-36 (66.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 3* Detroit Tigers
Cajun Sports
New York Mets vs. Florida Marlins
Play: New York Mets
The New York Mets travel to south Florida for a four-game weekend set against the host Marlins with the first game set for Thursday night at 7:10PM Eastern Time. The Mets will send left-hander Johan Santana to the bump with his 3-2 record and ERA of 4.54. His ERA took a major hit after giving up ten earned runs in a loss to the Phillies back on May 2nd. That result raised his ERA by more than two runs from 2.08 to 4.50. Santana rebounded though in his next trip to the hill throwing 7.7 innings giving up four earned runs on eight hits with six strikeouts as the Mets defeated the Giants 5 to 4. Johan now faces a Marlins team that gave him his first victory of the 2010 campaign winning 7 to 1 in New York throwing for six innings giving up one earned run on four hits with five strikeouts. For his career Johan Santana is 6-1 versus the Marlins with an ERA of 1.66 and a WHIP of 0.939. Santana’s ability to strikeout batters triggers a league-wide system that tells us to Play ON all MLB underdogs in this price range with a starter who strikes out five or more batters per start and catchers who allow 0.35 or fewer stolen bases per game. These underdogs have been outstanding in this situation since 1997 posting a record of 118-88 for 57.3 percent winners and +53.1 Units of profit. Johan Santana is 33-5 (+25.9 Units) after a game where he did not walk a batter since 1997. The Marlins will send right-hander Josh Johnson to the hill on Thursday night and he has a solid record versus the Mets over his career posting a 7-1 mark with an ERA of 2.69. He started against Johan in the opener this season taking the loss giving up four earned runs on five hits in five innings of work. The Marlins have struggled to score runs against left-handers this season averaging 3.5 runs per game with a batting average of only .249. We have another league-wide system that is active for tonight’s contest and it tells us to Play AGAINST NL teams with a batting average of .255 or worse facing a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.33 or better on the season. Playing against these National League teams has produced a record of 101-46 for 68.7 percent winners and a profit of +46.9 Units the last five seasons. We are going to back the visitor here as Johan and company grab another victory over the Marlins on Thursday night in south Florida.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* New York Mets 4 Florida Marlins 3
Rob Vinciletti
New York Mets vs. Florida Marlins
Play: New York Mets
We played against the Mets on Wednesday nailing the 5* on Washington. Today, we will jump on the their coat tails with J.Santana on the mound. The Mets are 3-1 as a road in this range this year. Florida is 0-3 as a home favorite in this range. Santana has been dominant in starts vs there Marlins going 6-1 with a 1.66 era. In his last start here in Florida he allowed 0 earned runs in 7 innings. The Marlins are averaging just 3.5 runs per game vs leftys this season and have lost 4 of 5 times in the first game of a home series this far this year. The Mets have a big bullpem edge too with a 2.60 era. New York is also hitting over .300 the past 7 games. Florida will counter with hard throwing righty J.Johnson. In his starts vs the Mets Johnson has been very good. However when we look at his last 2 starts vs the Mets we note that he has allowed 7 earned run in 11 innings with 14 hits. The Mets have won 5 of 7 when J.Sanatan starts. Tonight they get the call as our free play.
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Cleveland @ Boston
PICK: Boston -1
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in Game 6 is on the home side:
After dominating through the first four games of this series, the Celtics finally slowed down Lebron James as he scored just 15 points on 3 of 14 shooting; and he was held scoreless in the first half.
Cleveland won Game 3 in Boston 124-95 but lost there two days later 97-87.
Cleveland is a horrible 2-6 SU its last eight on the road; also just 2-11 SU its last 13 on the road vs. the C's.
On the other side of the court: The "Big 3" combined for 64 points in the 32 point Game 5 beatdown.
Kevin Garnett's presence has been huge and he should once again dominate the Cav's on the defensive end in this game.
Not only is Boston 4-2 ATS its last six vs. Cleveland, its also 7-3 ATS its last 10 overall and 4-1 ATS its last five at TD Garden.
Bottom line: No need to overanalyze this contest; I expect Boston to continue to do what its done to Cleveland over the last two games; hit the Cavaliers with a steady, relentless dose of Rajon Rondo and get a quiet and efficient game from Boston's Big 3; you may want to consider a second look at the CELTICS in this situation.
BIG AL
New York Mets @ Florida Marlins
PICK: Florida Marlins
Josh Johnson will take the mound for the Fish, and he's been simply brilliant, for the most part, this season. Johnson's overall ERA is 3.35 in seven starts, and it gets even better in his home ball park: 2.42 with a 1.07 WHIP. Overall, he's undefeated at home (3-0), and Florida even won one of his home starts in which he received a no-decision. Thus, the Fish have won all four of his home games this year. That's in stark contrast to the work that Mets' ace Johan Santana is putting in on the road. Away from Citi Field, Santana is a disastrous 0-1 (in two starts) with an 8.43 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. Overall, this year, Santana is 3-2, with an unsightly (for him) ERA of 4.54. New York is an awful 16-45 on the road at night over the last two seasons, and with the odds of this game priced very reasonably (Florida is currently -120), we'll step in and take the Marlins behind Johnson.
Black Widow
1* on Florida Marlins -120
Josh Johnson is the Ace of this Marlins' staff, and rarely will you find him as just a small home favorite. He is up against Johan Santana, who is coming off his two worst starts of the season. Santana is 0-1 with an 8.43 ERA in two road starts this year. In his last 2 starts, Santana has allowed 14 earned runs, 18 base runners and 4 home runs in 11.1 innings. Johnson is 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.810 WHIP in his last three starts so he comes in with the hotter hand. Johnson is 3-0 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in four home starts this year, and the Marlins are 4-0 in those outings. It's also worth noting that the Marlins are 8-2 in Johnson's 10 career starts vs. New York. Johnson is 7-1 with a 2.69 ERA in 10 lifetime starts against the Mets. The Mets are 3-14 in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Marlins are 14-3 in Johnsons last 17 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Marlins on the Money Line.
Jim Feist
Nationals vs. Rockies
Take: Over
You don't want to allow free passes in Coors Field or it will eat you up. The thin Denver air is tough on pitchers and Washington comes to town with struggling John Lannan (1-2, 6.34 ERA). He has more walks (18) then Ks (12) in 32 innings. This will be the first start for 22-year old Colorado righty Jhoulys Chacin. How fresh with the Colorado bullpen be? They played a double header yesterday in this park. Look for plenty of runs, play the Nationals/Rockies Over the total.
Info Plays
3* on Houston Astros +1.5 +108
Reasons the Astros win on the Run Line:
1.) Bud Norris. Yes, he has struggled this season with bigger numbers than the Astros would like. But if there's one team that he would love to face to get back on track Thursday, it would certainly be the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards just cannot seem to figure this guy out. Norris is 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA in three career starts against St. Louis, pitching 18 scoreless innings while striking out 17 batters.
2.) The Cardinals are just 1-3 in Chris Carpenter's last 4 starts vs. the Astros. Even on the Run Line Thursday the Astros are still an underdog, so we are getting excellent value here behind Norris as the Astros go for their fourth straight victory over the Cardinals. Bet Houston on the Run Line.
Jack Jones
New York Yankees -126
Good value here with C.C. Sabathia of the New York Yankees as he's usually a -200 favorite when he takes the mound. Sabathia is 4-1 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.077 WHIP this season. The Yankees are 22-5 in Sabathia's last 27 starts. The Yankees are 8-0 in Sabathia's last 8 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. New York has won 6 of their last 8 meetings with Detroit and with Sabathia on the mound Thursday there's a very good chance he gets the victory.
The Yankees are 63-23 in their last 86 games vs. a right-handed starter. New York is 46-15 in their last 61 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Any time you can find New York as a favorite of less than -150 they are certainly worth a look, especially with their Ace on the mound. Justin Verlander is Detroit's Ace but he's off to another slow start this year with a 4.50 ERA. I'll take Sabathia and the Yankees at this price any day. Bet New York.
SPORTS WAGERS
TEXAS –1½ +1.20 over Oakland
Note the 2:05 PM EST start. Man, you watch these A’s play and you shake your head and wonder how they’ve won 18 games and lost just 16. They’ve had some solid pitching but its offense resembles that of a minor-league team. Barton i9s hitting .297 and Sweeney is hitting .296 and after that you have a bunch of guys hitting between .200 and .255. Now this lame hitting line-up will face C.J. Wilson. Wilson has not had a PQS (see under these write-ups for an explanation of PQS and other terms used) under 3 in any of his six starts and let’s not forget where he’s pitched half of them. He has a BAA of .207, an ERA of 1.51 and he’s pitched into the sixth inning or longer is all of his starts. Wilson keeps the ball down, he works quickly and he’s been one of the most, if not the most reliable pitcher in the majors this season. Oakland made another lefty, Dave Holland, making his first start of the season, look like Sandy Koufax yesterday. Ben Sheets offers up nothing except a washed up arm and a big inning waiting to happen. Sheets is coming off a two-run, eight-strikeout effort against Tampa but so what. That game was in Oakland and when he wasn’t in pitcher-friendly Oakland in his previous two starts he yielded 17 earned runs on 19 hits in 7.1 innings. In three road starts covering 13 frames, Sheets has allowed 29 hits with five of those going yard. His BAA on the road is .446 and his ERA is over 13. It’s also worth noting that Oakland’s bullpen has been taxed quite a bit the last couple games (used for 11 IP and nearly 200 pitches over the last two games). The Rangers offense is enjoying a power surge at the moment and the team is winning. The A’s are ripe to get beat and they should get beat by a wide margin. Play: Texas –1½ +1.20 (Risking 2 units).
NY Mets +1.16 over FLORIDA
Johan Santana (84 BPV, 5-4-5-0-4 PQS) draws a Marlins squad scuffling over the last seven days (.572 OPS) and with a subpar .708 mark against LHP. Not that he needs any help against a team he owns (.424 OPS, 35% SO rate, in 165 plate appearances). Uggla, Ross and Ramirez are a combined 7 for 55 (.127) against Santana. The Fish continue to make bad pitchers look good and they can’t do a damn thing against good one’s and Santana certainly qualifies. Josh Johnson is also a quality pitcher but the Mets offense is coming alive and they’re much preferred over the Marlins. This one could easily be decided in the late innings when both chuckers are gone and in that scenario the Mets are also preferred. The Marlins have lost six of its last eight games at home and they’re just 4-3 when Johnson starts. The Mets are 5-2 when Santana starts and in a game in which Florida has no edge whatsoever, the Mets with a tag gets the call. Play: NY Mets +1.16 (Risking 2 units).
JR O'Donnell
BAL (+115) vs SEA
King Felix does not have it lately boys as he has been shelled the last 2 outings and there is trouble brewing with him right now, this is a huge gut play for us as we feel that the O's are in a real nice spot early Thursday + 115. The O's will run out righthander Kevin Millwood 3.26 ERA and a retread from almost every ball club. He has been getting no run support from the O's and today we have some real Value in the O's. Baltimore O's will get our call early as the snake bitten Millwood takes out the Seattle M's real early today!
Jimmy Moore
Cleveland @ Boston
Pick: Cleveland +1.5
I just don't see LeBron having a bad game back to back and he will be very motivated to avoid elimination. Cleveland still has a strong ATS record against Boston over the past few seasons and they usually respond well to a big loss.
Bobby Maxwell
N.Y. Mets (+115) at FLORIDA
I scored a FREE winner on Wednesday with the Dodgers on the road in Arizona, improving my comp record to 95-73-3. Tonight I have another baseball road team to play, this time with the Mets as they open a three-game series in Florida against the Marlins.
While Mets’ lefty Johan Santana hasn’t been very sharp lately, I’m still going with him to deliver a quality start tonight and set the Mets up for the win in Florida.
Santana (3-2, 4.54 ERA) has given up 14 runs in his last two outings, covering 11.1 innings of work. However, that came after an outstanding three-game stretch that saw him allow just one run over 19.1 innings in wins over the Cardinals, Cubs and Dodgers. He’ll find that form tonight in the Florida air as he always seems to dominate the Marlins.
The Mets are 4-2 in his six starts against Florida the last few years, and one of the losses came in Florida when he didn’t allow an earned run (two unearned) on three hits over seven innings and struck out 13 in a 2-1 loss. Santana has never allowed more than three runs in a game against Florida and earlier this season he held them to one run on four hits in six innings of a 7-1 win on opening day.
Santana faced tonight’s starter Josh Johnson (3-1, 3.35 ERA) in that one as the Marlin lefty allowed four runs on five hits in five innings.
New York is 5-2 in its last seven series openers, 6-1 when Santana goes on Thursday and 10-4 when he pitches the first game of a series. On the other side, the Marlins are 2-6 in their last eight at home, 5-13 in series openers and 1-5 against teams with winning records.
I’m going with Santana and the Mets tonight.
5♦ N.Y. METS