Karl Garrett
NY Mets (+110) at FLORIDA
The Indians for FREE last night, now 6 straight comp play winners from the G-Man!
Let's keep it going with the Mets this Thursday evening.
New York will send out Johan Santana to face Josh Johnson. These 2 met back on April 5th, Santana picking up the opening day win over Johnson and the Marlins at Citi Field.
Santana is a positive 3-1 his last 5 starts against the Marlins, and has allowed no more than 3 runs in any of those 5 assignments against Florida. That bodes wll for the southpaw, as he is looking to put his last 2 starts in the rear view mirror after getting shelled for 14 runs in 12 innings of work.
Johnson is a perfect 3-0 at home this year, and while he is 3-1 his last 5 starts against New York, he has allowed 12 runs in his last 24 innings of work against the Mets.
I like Santana to get back on track in a close one tonight against Florida.
G-Man on the Mets in the dog role to make it 7 straight freebies in the win column.
2♦ NY METS
Chris Jordan
Seattle at BALTIMORE (+120)
Looking at the home pup in this one, even though it appears there's a pitching mismatch. Don't forget that Kevin Millwood spent enough time in Texas to familiarize himself with this Mariners team in the American League West. Millwood has 22 starts against the Mariners.
And though his record may not indicate it, Millwood has pitched much better than one might think, and is the right spot to score a huge win, which this would be against "King Felix" Hernandez.
Millwood is in after allowing three earned runs over seven innings in a tough loss to the Twins last Saturday. Though it was a quality start, the lack of run support has diminished his chances. The O's have scored a total of 12 runs in the seven starts he's been on the bump - a stretch that spans 47 innings.
The Orioles could very well buck that trend today against Hernandez, who is in after allowing eight runs in 3-1/3 innings of an 8-0 loss to the Angels. The right-hander has now allowed 16 runs over 14-2/3 innings over his last three outings.
Hernandez is 5-3 with a 3.41 ERA in 11 starts against Baltimore, so it appears he's been hittable at times, and with the way he's been pitching, I'd say this is one of those times, especially since the Orioles are in after a 5-2 win over the M's and get to come right back for an early game with the West Coast M's.
Take the home underdog here.
2♦ ORIOLES
MTi Sports
New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers
Prediction: New York Yankees
The Tigers are 4-17 as a dog in the last game of a home series when they are off a loss and the Yankees are 20-2 after shutting out their opponent. Also, the Yankees are 15-1 when CC Sabathia starts vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date and the Tigers are 2-12 as a dog when they won the last two games their starter started. Take the Yanks.
Steve Merril
Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Cleveland Indians +1.5
Kansas City’s Zack Greinke is 0-4 with a 2.51 ERA in seven starts. The team is 1-6 in those seven games as the bullpen has been the reason why Greinke is winless. The right hander is 5-7 against Cleveland with a 3.17 ERA in 18 career starts. In Greinke's last 10 starts against the Tribe, five were losses while two others were one run victories. Grady Sizemore (11-36), Travis Hafner (10-32), Shin-Soo Choo (7-22), Asdrubal Cabrera (9-20), Luis Valbuena (5-14) and Mike Redmond (3-5) all have good numbers against Greinke. The Indians are entering the game in good offensive form. They have scored four runs or more in six straight games. Should this come to the Royals bullpen, it's definitely an advantage for the Indians. Kansas City’s bullpen has a 7.20 ERA at home where they are 2-5 as a unit. David Huff gets the start for Cleveland. While his numbers aren't that good this season, he is 2-0 in his career against the Royals. Last season, he was able to pick up those wins while giving up five runs and 14 hits in 12 innings of work. Alberto Callaspo (1-6), Mitch Maier (0-6), Willie Bloomquist (1-5) and Jason Kendall (0-3) all struggle against the lefty. As a team, Kansas City is 1-6 against left-handed starters and just 5-8 in daytime games. This should be a close game throughout so we’ll recommend a play on the run line with the road team in this spot.
EZWINNERS
Florida Marlins -129
The Mets starting pitcher Johan Santana is not pitching like the ace of the Mets staff. Santana has allowed 14 earned runs in his last two starts spanning 11 2/3 innings and has an ERA of 4.54 for the season. Santana allowed four runs against the Giants on Saturday and gave up four long balls in his previous start against the Phillies in which he allowed 10 runs. The Marlins starting pitcher Josh Johnson is a workhorse for the Florida pitching staff. Johnson has pitched at least six innings in five straight starts and has allowed no more than three runs in every start since his first of the season which was against these Mets. I expect Johnson to revert back to his dominate ways against New York as he is 7-1 in his career against the Mets with an ERA of just 2.69. The Marlins are 20-6 in Johnson's last twenty six home starts and I expect those winning ways to continue. Play on Florida.
Lenny Del Genio
Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers
Texas got the best of Oakland yesterday smashing the A’s 10-1. Today, in the rubber match of the series the A’s send out Sheets while the Rangers counter with Wilson. Look for a low scoring game this afternoon with Wilson on the hill. In his six starts this season he’s been super with a 1.73 ERA with all six of his starts going under the total. Oakland struggles against lefties hitting only .231 on the season, and they’ll struggle again today having to face Wilson for the first time. The A’s are 16-4 under playing with revenge from getting beat by six or more runs. Low scoring game this afternoon in Texas!
Play on: Under
VEGAS EXPERTS
Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals
We’ll back the Indians here Thursday afternoon in a good value spot. Cleveland has won the first two games of this series by a combined score of 12-2, and Kansas City has now lost seven games overall. While they do have the pitching advantage today with Greinke on the mound, the fact of the matter is that the Royals can’t seem to score a run to save their life, and Greinke has to be getting frustrated at this point. Cleveland starter David Huff hasn’t been awful for Cleveland, and against a weak lineup he should be able to hold off Kansas City long enough for his team to get to the KC bullpen and start doing some real damage. We’ll take the big underdog here.
Play on: Cleveland Indians
Ben Burns
Mets at Marlins
Play: Under
These pitchers faced each other on 4/5. That one finished just slightly above the total, a 7-1 Mets win. This one figures to be lower-scoring.
Johnson didn't pitch well in the loss at New York. However, he's still got great career numbers (7-1, 2.69 ERA) vs. the Mets. Additionally, he's almost always tough to beat at home. This season, he's already 3-0 with a 2.42 ERA in four starts here.
Santana's overall numbers aren't great. That's largely due to one really bad inning at Philadelphia though. He's a much better pitcher than those numbers indicate and he's had great success against the Marlins. Including last month's victory, he's 6-1 with a 1.66 ERA and a WHIP of 0.939 in eight starts against them.
While the Mets have been seeing the majority of their recent games finish above the total, the Marlins have seen four straight stay below the number. In fact, they allowed an average of less than three runs per game in those four games and they've scored four runs or less in eight straight games. For the season, they're averaging only 3.5 runs in games vs. southpaw starters. With the Mets hitting only .214 on the road, consider a play on the UNDER
Scott Rickenbach
Cleveland @ Boston
PICK: Under 196.5
When the Cavaliers essentially "quit" in Tuesday's Game Five, the floodgates were opened for a huge performance from the Celtics offense. Look for a much different result tonight. First off, the Boston defense has done a solid job in nearly every game in this series. Secondly, we know that the Cavaliers defense is going to bring an intense effort here after being totally embarrassed in Game Five. This one sets up perfectly to be a much lower-scoring affair as the focus tends to change when it's an elimination game setting. The Celtics are looking to close this series out and want to continue to frustrate the Cavs offense just as they have done in the last two games. As for the Cavaliers, they are fighting for their playoff lives and a chance to send this series back to Cleveland for a decisive Game Seven. The pressure is on, the intensity is up, look for a much more defensive mindset in this match-up. Considering how well these defenses are capable of playing, there is great value here with the big total posted on this game. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Boston on Thursday night.
Tom Freese
New York Mets at Florida Marlins
Prediction: Florida Marlins
Florida starter Josh Johnson has a 5 to 1 Strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. The Marlins are 20-7 their last 27 games as home favorites. Florida is 20-6 at home with Johnson on the mound and they are 6-1 with Josh Johnson vs. the Mets. New York starter Johan Santana has allowed 14 runs in his last 2 starts. New York is 17-42 their last 59 games vs. NL East teams and they are 7-21 vs. losing teams. The Mets are 16-38 their last 54 road games. PLAY ON FLORIDA -
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Nationals/Rockies UNDER 9.5
This series has been all about the Under recently with 5 of the last 7 meetings playing to the Under. Plus, the Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in Colorado. This total range is significant also when you consider that the Under is 6-0-1 in the Nationals' last 7 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5 runs and 4-1 in the Rockies' last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5 runs. Lannan takes the hill for Washington tonight and the Under is 14-2-2 in his last 18 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5 runs. Looking back even further, the Under is 22-7-3 in his last 32 overall starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5 runs. In addition, the Under is 6-1-1 in his last 8 road starts. It is also comforting to know that the Under is 8-0 in Lannan's last 8 starts versus an NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better over the last 2 seasons, and we are only seeing an average of 7.3 runs scored in these games. While this play largely has to do with Lannan, it is also certainly worth noting that Chacin is 2-0 with an ERA of 0.00 on the season. We'll bet the Under.
John Ryan
Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Washington Nationals
3* graded play on Washington Nationals as they take on the Rockies set to start at 8:40 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Nationals will win this game. Certainly no one, including myself, saw the Nationals above 500 at this point in the season. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 100-93 making 70.3 units since 2004. Play against all favorites with a money line of -150 or more averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game on the season and after a win by 2 runs or less. Washington is also 10-4 (+11.2 Units) against the money line versus NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season this season. Skipper Riggleman is a solid 20-9 (+21.7 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better. Take the Nationals.
INSIDER ANGLES
This series between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Boston Celtics has been a strange one, and the Celtics now have the chance to wrap up the upset at home in Game 6.
What has made this series so unpredictable is that Boston has posted two blowout wins at Cleveland, where the Cavaliers lost just six games the entire regular season, and the Cavaliers rebounded from their first blowout loss at home with a blowout win of their own here in Boston in Game 3, as LeBron James has his best game of the series.
So now the question becomes will the Cavaliers respond to that second bad loss the same way they did in Game 3, or will Boston take advantage and end this series at home? Well, while we do not expect yet another romp, we do feel that James and the Cavs will rise up to the challenge and find a way to win and force a seventh game back in Cleveland.
After all, the Cavaliers have played their best ball on the round throughout these playoffs, as in addition to Game 3 of this series, they took control of their opening round series with the Chicago Bulls with a 23-point road win in Game 4. In fact, for the whole year, Cleveland has a much better record against the spread on the road (24-20-1) than they do at home (18-29).
The pressure may now be squarely on the Celtics here, as they went from being decided underdogs before this series started vs. the team with the best record in the NBA to now being slight favorites in a potential close-out game, and they have already publicly said that this is like a Game 7 to them, which is like admitting they do not feel that they can win for a third time in Cleveland if there is a Game 7.
Well, we think they will get to find out, as we will back the better team as slight underdogs in this spot, and we also look for LeBron to come closer to his great performance in Game 3 than to his dismal no-show on Tuesday night.
Pick: Cavaliers +1.5
Mike Rose
Colorado Rockies -1½
The surprising Washington Nationals invade Denver Colorado to get the first of four match-ups in with the Colorado Rockies on Thursday night.
Lefty John Lannan has been battling throwing elbow issues of late, and most recently had his spot skipped in the rotation as a precautionary measure. He hasn’t thrown a pitch in live game action since his May 2nd loss at Florida where he surrendered nine hits and six ER’s through just five IP.
Overall, Lannan is 1-2 overall with a 6.34 ERA & 1.93 WHIP. He’s been plagued by big innings and slow starts all season long. The Nats are 3-3 in his six overall starts;1-2 on the road.
So far so good for Jhoulys Chacin through a pair of starts to the youngster’s 2010 campaign. He’s coming off a brilliant effort at Dodgers Stadium where he limited Los Angeles to six hits and no ER’s while K’ing six and walking two through 7.1 total innings of work.
He’s allowed just seven hits and is yet to give up a run on the season. This will be his first career look at Washington.
Washington has been an excellent story on the young season, but there’s a number of factors playing against them in tonight’s spot.
For one, they’re coming off a huge series win at Citi Field that marked their third straight series win against divisional opponents.
Second, they’re invading a venue they’ve had no luck in of late to take on a Rockies club that should feed off the momentum gained from their walk-off win against the Phillies.
Finally, Lannan’s hurting and I don’t foresee him long for this one. He’s also matched up against a rookie that’s caused nothing but headaches for each of his first two opponents. Until there’s enough tape on the youngster for opposing teams to dissect, continue riding the rookie!
O.C. Dooley
Cavaliers / Celtics OVER 194
We certainly have excellent value with tonight's total which in most offshore locales opened up at the 196 mark. It is certainly no stretch that LeBron James will be more productive for the Cavaliers tonight on the heels of a dreadful "3 for 14" shooting performance. What will be key to the team that has the NBA's best overall record is for other personnel to help out King LeBron who will be drawing plenty of defensive attention. Speaking of defense Cleveland had to change their gameplan after Rajon Rondo's phenominal performance (29 points, 18 rebounds, 13 assists) in a recrd setting game-four. On Tuesday evening LeBron James was asked to shadow Boston's emerging star guard which finally freed up veteran Paul Pierce who had been shooting just 31% from the floor. On Tuesday Pierce (21 points, 11 rebounds, 7 assists) busted loose while Ray Allen connected on 6-of-9 long range attempts from behind the arc. Boston's "veteran three" of Pierce, Allen and Kevin Garnett combined to put 64 POINTS on the scorebaord. To make a long story short the Celtics have a myriad of scoring threats that include veteran Rasheed Wallace off the bench. My database research indicates that Boston is a whopping 13-4 OVER the total when off 3 consecutive contests where they committed less than 15 turnovers. In the past three years Cleveland is 13-4 OVER the spot when "revenging" a loss against an opponent who out at least 100 points on the scoreboard. Here is an eye opening 78-PERCENT SYSTEM (25-7 the past five years) which plays ROAD teams like Cleveland off a humiliating game where they allowed 110+ points OVER the total, against an opponent who is off a "double digit" triumph. Even though their head coach preaches defensive intensity, it is interesting to note that Cleveland is 5-2 OVER the last 7 times they have been in a near "pick em" situation like tonight