Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, May 16

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
The Brewers look to bounce back from yesterday's 3-1 loss and take advantage of a Pittsburgh team that is 1-5 in its last 6 games after allowing 2 runs or less in the previous game. Milwaukee is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Brewers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+120)

Game 951-952: NY Mets at St. Louis (1:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Niese) 13.088; St. Louis (Wainwright) 16.153
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 3; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-220); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-220); Under

Game 953-954: Milwaukee at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Burgos) 15.115; Pittsburgh (Liriano) 13.930
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+120); Over

Game 955-956: Cincinnati at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Latos) 14.809; Miami (Fernandez) 15.325
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-180); 7
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+160); Over

Game 957-958: San Francisco at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 15.026; Colorado (Chacin) 15.956
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-115); Under

Game 959-960: Washington at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 16.440; San Diego (Volquez) 15.396
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-150); Under

Game 961-962: Seattle at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Harang) 16.516; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 16.011
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+150); Over

Game 963-964: Boston at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Doubront) 15.701; Tampa Bay (Cobb) 14.488
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+135); Over

Game 965-966: Detroit at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 14.914; Texas (Darvish) 16.114
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-120); Under

Game 967-968: Chicago White Sox at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Quintana) 14.472; LA Angels (Williams) 15.614
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 7
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-140); Under

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington Nationals vs. San Diego PadresSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Washington NationalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington fits a solid road system here that plays on road favorites off a road dog loss that scored 2 or less runs, vs an opponent that comes in off a road win. These teams have won the last 7 times the past 5 years. Strasburg makes the start for Washington, while Volquez goes for San Diego. The Padres have lost 5 of 7 here vs the Nationals. Washington is 5-0 on Thursday this season and has won 19 of 26 as a road favorite from -125 to -155. Look for Strasburg to tun things around here as Washington takes the opener of the series.

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington Nationals at San Diego PadresSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Washington NationalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When the Nationals send Steven Strasburg to the hill against Edinson Volquez and the Padres in the opener of this four-game series in San Diego they will do so knowing Strasburg is 5-2 in his MLB career team starts during May, including 3-0 away. With Volzquez in lousy KW form with 9 strikeouts and 10 walks his last three starts, look for him to fall to 1-5 in his last six May team starts here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Washington.

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Giants vs. RockiesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 9FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Matt Cain (2-2, 5.04 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Cain gave up a two-run shot in the fifth inning vs. the Braves, and that would be the only damage as the Giants would go on to win 8-2. Cain allowed three hits and two runs over eight frames of work while striking out seven. While he's 2-1 in his last four starts at Coors Field, take note that his ERA is 4.91 in that span. Cain will be opposed by Jhoulys Chacin (3-2, 2.70 ERA) who is coming off a 3-0 loss to the Cards on Saturday; Chacin gave up two runs off eight hits with three walks over five frames of work. Chacin has looked pretty sharp this year, but note that he was an unremarkable 2-2 with a poor 6.34 ERA in friendly confines last season. In the opener of this four-game set, I'm unconvinced these starters will be able to make it deep and look for this one to sneak above the posted number as the game comes down the stretch.

Steve JanusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Brewers / Pirates Over 8FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The first three games of this series have all been low-scoring. In each of those games we saw a total of 7.5 or lower and all three went UNDER. Despite the recent results, oddsmakers opened the total for Thursday's game at 8.5. It's since been bet down to 8 and I think it's time to jump all over it. The fact that oddsmakers set the total higher, has me thinking they are expecting an offensive outburst.
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I would agree. The Brewers will send out Hiram Burgous, who was lit up for 12 runs (10 earned) on 11 hits in just three innings of work in his last start. He's clearly not going to come in with much confidence. The Pirates will counter with Francisco Liriano. In his first start of the season on Saturday, Liriano allowed just one run on six hits while striking out 9 against the Mets. However, he lasted just 5.3 innings and likely won't pitch deep in this game. You also have to remember that Liriano has a history of some pretty ugly starts. Both starters have the potential to give up 5+ runs in this game. Even if one starters pitches well, there's a good chance the other will make up the difference.

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Mets at CardinalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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First place St. Louis has a terrific offense, 11th in baseball in runs scored and 10th in on base percentage. The over is 5-2 in the Cardinals last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and they face struggling Jonathon Niese (2-4, 5.93 ERA), who is 0-3 with a 9.60 ERA his last three starts. At least the Mets offense likes facing Adam Wainwright, who is 1-3 with a 7.90 ERA against NY! NY is on a 7-3 run over the total and the over is 7-1-1 in the Mets last 9 road games vs. a right-handed starter. And when these rivals meet the over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in St. Louis.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Chicago White SoxFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Angels continue to be priced as if they're a good baseball team. Maybe they will be at some point this season, but for the time being the Halos are pretty ordinary, and that might even be overrating them to an extent. The White Sox have been a disappointment as well, but they're coming into Anaheim off a couple of good wins and have a little positive momentum.
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This is the second battle in just a handful of days between Jose Quintana and Jerome Williams. Quintana stumbled at the outset of the clash last Saturday, as Mike Trout got him right out of the gate for a two-run homer. Quintana really settled in after that and I thought he slightly outpitched Williams, but Angels righty collected the win. This is one of those matchups that I like, in that Williams has a better ERA than Quintana but all the metric indicators actually favor the Pale Hose southpaw. Ditto for the career marks. Quintana has also been a solid pitcher on the road, while Williams has average at best stats at home. BR>
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If it gets to the bullpen, give the White Sox an edge. The Angels have the more explosive offense. But the Chisox have swung it pretty well the last couple of days, and the fact Adam Dunn is suddenly making contact makes this lineup more dangerous than it has been. Keep an eye on Dayan Viciedo tonight, as he's 5/5 lifetime against Williams and he also belted a bomb on Wednesday in the romp over the Twins.
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This game looks like a coin flip to me. That's where the price enters the equation as I'm getting +130 right now with the road team. Anytime I can score that kind of value, I'm likely to get involved, and I will here with the White Sox.

Don Best ConsensusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle at New YorkFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: New YorkFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Whoa, were the Yankees embarrassed last night, losing to the Mariners 12-2. Phil Hughes didn't make it out of the first inning as Seattle scored 7 runs in that inning. With Pettitte on the mound for the Yanks on Thursday, it's time to take back control and win the series. New York is 7-2 in their last 9 games overall and 21-8 in their last 29 games on grass. The Mariners are 8-20 in their last 28 meetings in the Bronx. Play the Yankees.

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New York at St. LouisFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: St. Louis -1.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We might as well ride the trends for another day. And in this case, it's all Cards, who look for the sweep of this 4-game set on Thursday afternoon, while the Mets are at risk of a seventh straight defeat. Which is going to be hard for New York to avoid with an offense that has now scored just 23 runs in the last nine games and is batting just .195 in the current 6-game tailspin. Not to mention relying upon recently-shaky starter Jonathon Niese, who is 0-4 with a 7.71 ERA in his last five starts. Much prefer to lay the run with the Cards, even at this premium price, with Adam Wainwright (off a near no-hitter vs. the Rockies last Saturday; 0.72 ERA and 0.56 WHIP at home this season) on the road at his preferred Busch Stadium. Play Cardinals on Run Line

Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle vs. New YorkFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: New YorkFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Yankees ran into a hot pitcher yesterday, while Phil Hughes failed to get out of the first inning. The result was a 12-2 throttling at the hands of Seattle. It might be their turn to return the favor today, as the Mariners send a struggling Aaron Harang to the mound in Game 2 in the Bronx.
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Harang (1-4, 7.30 ERA) has been terrible all season, although he's coming off consecutive quality starts. He allowed just a pair of runs on five hits over six innings his last time out, but lost 4-1 to the Pirates. His last two starts have come in parks that favor the pitcher, but his luck is due to run out at Yankee Stadium today.
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Lyle Overbay has seen more of Harang than anyone else in New York's lineup, and he hasn't been fooled. Overbay was 2-for-3 with a double yesterday, and he's hitting 4.58 in 24 career at bats versus Harang.
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The Yankees hand the ball to veteran Andy Pettitte, who appears to be turning things around after going through a rough patch. Pettitte (4-2, 3.83 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on five hits over seven innings in a 3-2 win over the Royals his last time out. After an excellent start to the season, he had lost three straight prior to his last outing.
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We can expect Pettitte to take care of business today, facing a Mariners team that ranks near last in the majors in runs scored. Harang on the other hand has his work cut out for him, and he might be looking at an early exit and another loss.

Chase DiamondFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle vs. New YorkFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: New YorkFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This game features the 19-21 Mariners at the 25-15 Yankees. The Yankees were taken apart yesterday as they got beat 12-2. Today Andy Pettitte 4-2 3.83 ERA goes against maybe the worst starter in the league Aaron Harang 1-4 7.30 ERA. Public is pounding the Yankees at a tune of 79% but so will we for a 8* easy win.

Jason Sharpe

Indiana / New York Over 179

Going against the grain here and playing the over in this one. The New York Knicks head coach Mike Woodson has talked extensively about how the Knicks have to start scoring more points. It's obvious that playing faster and making this more of an offensive contest is New York's game plan coming into this must-win game for them here. The slow-it-down, grind-it-out style of basketball these two teams have been playing so far in this series plays right into the hands of Indiana. I am expecting a much faster-paced game between these two squads here in this one. The Knicks know exactly what they have to do to win this game. Go over the total in this one. I have a big play coming Thursday in NBA post-season action. It's my five-Unit NBA Game of the Week selection. I am on the best run of my life betting the NBA, having gone 23-10 my last 33 plays. Even more impressive than that is the fact I have crushed my bi! g-play selections also, going 12-3 my last 15 plays rated four units and higher. In the playoffs I am a perfect 4-0 in 5-unit plays and higher in the NBA. Join me Thursday and get your weekend started off on the right foot.

Matt FargoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Milwaukee BrewersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee will be looking for a series split tonight before heading to St. Louis for another big divisional series. The Brewers have been struggling as they are 5-14 over their last 19 games which has completely negated their nine-game winning streak which came right before this skid. After winning the opener, the offense has been handcuffed the last two games but I expect that to reverse out tonight. They send Hiram Burgos and he is coming of an absolutely dreadful start as he allowed 12 runs, 10 earned, on 11 hits in three innings at Cincinnati . He had pitched three very strong games prior to that with two of those being quality outings so we can chalk up that last start as an aberration. In addition, he was pitching on 10 days rest which certainly could have messed him up but now he is back on regular rest. He has already posted a quality start against the Pirates as he allowed two run in seven innings two starts back. The Pirates are now six games over .500 after a 5-1 run over their last six games as the pitching has been outstanding. This includes a great start from Francisco Liriano at New York against the Mets where he allowed one run in 5.1 innings but I think that is where it ends. After some dominating years in Minnesota, he has really struggled the last few seasons as injuries cut down what was looking to be a very promising career. Milwaukee is hitting .283 against left-handed pitching this season and it busts out to salvage the series split.

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3 UNIT PLAYSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Indiana/ New York Over 179: Before game 4 the Knicks stated that they must make this an uptempo game in order to beat the Pacers. Well they weren't able to do that in Indiana, but now with their backs against the wall and at home I feel they will able to do just that. They have to o they will be out of the playoffs. Both New York and Atlanta has had problems scoring in Indiana, but on the road in the playoffs the Pacers have allowed 93 ppg and the Knicks have scored 101.5 ppg at home this year. The Knicks do allow just 93 ppg at home and the Pacers have put up just 91 ppg on the road, but still his should be more of an uptempo game, giving them more scoring chances. New York home games have averaged 194.5 ppg, while Indiana road games have put up 182.7 ppg and in a desperation game for the Knicks I expect this one to fall in between those two averages.
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San Antonio -1 over GOLDEN STATE: Gregg Popovich has made all the right adjustments in this series and has for the most part bottled up Curry the last 4 games. After putting up 44 points in game 1, curry has been held to just 34.8% shooting in his last 4 games. In game 5 he was held to a mere 9 points and it shows that his ankle has really been hampering him. The Spurs have made the right defensive adjustments in this series and the experience factor should also weigh in here. San Antonio is the better team here, even on this floor and they will end the Warriors season tonight.