MLB Predictions
St Louis Cardinals -1.5 -109
The New York Mets have dropped the first three of this four game series to fall to 14-23 on the year and 5-11 on the road. Meanwhile the St Louis Cardinals are one of the best teams in baseball right now at 26-13 and 12-6 at home. They've scored 20 runs in their three games with the Mets so far (compared to the Mets with 9 runs) and have a good chance at a handful more this afternoon. New York sends Jon Niese to the mound who is 2-4 on the year with a 5.93 ERA, .301 OBA and 1.76 WHIP. Over his last two starts he has gone just 8.1 innings combined allowing 15 hits and 15 earned runs against. He walked 9 in those two starts and struck out just 4. On the road he is 1-2 with a 8.40 ERA this season. Going for St Louis will be Adam Wainwright who took a no hitter into the eighth in his last start, but ended up giving up 2 hits and 0 earned runs in a complete game shutout. Wainwright improves to 5-2 on the season with a 2.30 ERA, .245 OBA and 0.99 WHIP. His numbers are microscopic at home where he is 2-1 with a 0.72 ERA, .131 OBA and 0.56 WHIP over three starts. The Mets are 0-5 in Niese's last 5 starts, while the Cardinals are 6-1 in Wainwright's last 7 starts. St Louis is also 10-3 in Wainwright's last 13 home starts, 44-19 in their last 63 home games, and 6-1 in their last 7 vs a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Cardinals have won 29 of their last 40 meetings with New York in St Louis and I look for that to continue this afternoon. Take the Cardinals by 2 or more.
Miami Marlins +1.5 -115
The Red have won the first two of this series 6-2 and 4-0 and are 5-1 on the season vs the Marlins, but Miami has possibly their best starting pitcher on the mound today. Jose Fernandez is 2-2 with a 3.65 ERA, .213 OBA and 1.16 WHIP. Over his last two starts he has pitched 13 innings giving up 3 earned runs with 16 strikeouts and 3 walks. Those three runs all came in the first inning of his last start on a homerun, and other than that he has looked solid. While the Marlins have only won 11 games all season they are 4-3 in games he starts, and 3-0 in his last three starts. The Reds will counter with their ace in Mat Latos who is 4-0 on the year with a 3.04 ERA, .259 OBA and 1.27 WHIP. His last start he was roughed up for 9 hits and 6 earned runs over 6 innings, and he has given up 9 earned runs over his last two starts (11 innings). His command hasn't been as good as it was to start the season where he went 5 straight starts with just one walk, as he has given up 3 walks in each of his past three starts. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Marlins score a few runs tonight and that could be enough to win with Fernandez on the mound. I will take the Marlins getting a 1.5 runs at a fair price.
Wunderdog
New York Rangers at Boston
Pick: Boston -130
These teams come into this round both flying high as the Rangers defeated the Washington Capitals on the road in Game seven decisively 5-0. The Bruins did something that may have never happened in a Game Seven before, and that was to come from a 4-1 deficit with under 11 minutes remaining in the game, to win a 5-4 overtime decision. Only the Los Angeles Kings had more home wins (19), than the Bruins (18) in the regular season. The Rangers won just 10 times on the road, where they did not play very well. The difference here is the Bruins' explosive offense that saw them score an NHL high 165 goals on the season. That offense has also produced a 24-9 mark in their last 33 following a game where they scored 5+ in their previous contest. The Rangers' road woes show them at just 1-5 in their last six vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Make the play on Boston.
NHL Predictions
Rangers / Bruins Over 5
The New York Rangers advanced to the second round with a Game 7 victory in Washington, while the Bruins also won a Game 7 doing the improbable coming back from down 4-1 half way through the third at home vs Toronto. New York faced some good goaltending in round 1 but managed just score 4+ goals in three of the seven games, including their final win a 5-0 victory. The Bruins also faced some good goaltending from Toronto but they managed to score 4+ goals in four of their seven games. Tuuka Rask allowed 17 goals in the last 6 games (2.83 against per game). These two teams met three times this season with Boston winning the first 3-1, and New York winning the final two 4-3. We saw totals of 4, 7 and 7 when these two teams met and the total shots on goal were 69, 62, and 55. Although Henrik Lundqvist has been great in two straight shutouts he will be facing a Bruins team that managed 40, 41, 44, and 35 shots on goal in their four home games in the opening round. Getting a total at 5 and a good price I like the OVER in the first game.
Teddy CoversFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Washington vs. San DiegoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Nationals lineup has gone ice cold. They’ve plated just ten runs in their last five games, and nearly half of those runs came in three innings against Josh Beckett, who went on the DL following that outing. The Nats have 46 strikeouts during that span, while hitting .133 with runners in scoring position.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Padres starter Edison Volquez threw seven innings of three hit, one run ball in his lone start against Washington last year. And Volquez has been dominant in each of his last two home starts here at Petco: 13.2 innings of work, nine hits and one run against two pretty good hitting lineups – Milwaukee and Arizona. Its surely worth noting that the Nats have been held to three runs or less in six of their last seven games in the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the majors.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Stephen Strasburg hasn’t won since opening day, and he’s allowed four runs in each of his last two starts; his worst back-2-back showings since right before he needed Tommy John surgery in August of his rookie year. Don’t think for a minute that something is ‘not right’ with Washington’s ace – his peripheral numbers are just fine, and half of those eight runs allowed were unearned.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The San Diego native is making his first career start at Petco tonight in front of hundreds of friends and family; an optimal spot for a gem against a Padres squad coming off a cross-country flight last night. I don’t play many Unders in this total range, but this is one spot where the Under is primed to cash! Take the Under.
Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Detroit vs. TexasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
I won a total as my free play yesterday, taking the Over in Royals/Angels. The day previous I cashed the Tigers on the Run Line. Today, I like the total, this time an Under, in the Tigers game as we have an outstanding pitching matchup of Justin Verlander vs. Yu Darvish in the opener of a weekend series between Detroit and Texas....
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
You know Verlander's credentials. He carries a 1.93 ERA in eight starts (1.208 WHIP), but somehow has only a 4-3 WL record for his efforts. He's off arguably his worst effort of the year, losing to Cleveland, allowing four runs (three earned). But in his five starts before that, he had allowed a total of just five runs in 34 innings of work. On the road, Verlander has actually been better this season with a 1.08 ERA. Detroit's offense curtails significantly on the road, down from more than six runs per game at Comerica Park to 4.6 runs per game.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Darvish is one of the few pitchers in MLB than can match Verlander. He has a 2.73 his eight starts, seven of which have resulted in Rangers victories. The Under is 24-13 in all Texas games this season. That includes a 12-2 mark after back to back errorless games. With two great starting pitchers on the mound, the natural tendency is to take the Under and I can't disagree.
Will RogersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Washington vs. San DiegoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: WashingtonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
I've had a lot of success with my free plays, cashing the Cardinals each of the last three days, yesterday doing so on the run line. With St. Louis playing during the daytime Thursday, I'm going to look elsewhere on the card for some value and I think I've found it here with Washington against San Diego.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Here are my keys to the game.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
1. Stephen Strasburg - The ace of the Nationals staff has had a tremendously disappointing start to the season. His TSR is just 2-6 in spite of a very solid 3.10 ERA. He gave up four unearned runs in an 8-2 loss to the Cubs in his previous start. His last win came on Opening Day, which sounds ridiculous considering he has 48 strikeouts over 42 1/3 innings. The problem has been a lack of run support as the offense has given him just 13 runs of support during that same period of time. Facing San Diego's weak offense should lead to a turnaround for Strasburg.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
2. Nats Offense - This obviously has to improve. The Nats are averaging just two runs per game over the last five games while barely batting .200 and also striking out a total of 46 times. Facing Edinson Volquez (5.15 ERA) should help turn things around tonight.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
3. X-Factor - Washington is 5-1 its last six visits to Petco Park
Dave PriceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
SF Giants -109FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Giants have won 37 of their last 52 versus the Rockies, including 6 of their last 7 in Colorado. They'll have an excellent chance to continue their dominance with Matt Cain on the rubber. San Francisco has won his last 3 starts while he's posted an ERA of 2.95. It has also won his last 5 starts versus the Rockies, and he hasn't given up more than 3 earned runs in any of those. The Rockies are only 11-25 in Jhoulys Chacin's last 36 starts. They are 0-5 in his last 5 starts versus the Giants and 0-4 in his last 4 home starts against them. Take the defending World Series Champs with their ace on the mound at a nice price.
Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Yankees/Mariners Over 8½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Mariners are at their best scoring when playing against a left handed starter. They should make this game look like batting practice when they face a struggling Andy Pettitte today. Pettitte has posted a 6.61 ERA and 1.531 WHIP in his last three starts. In his career Pettitte is barely over .500 when facing Seattle in his career and has a 1.370 WHIP against them.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Yankees should also be able to take batting practice against Seattle’s starting pitcher. Aaron Harang has a 7.30 ERA on the season and he is 1-4 in his 5 starts. He has been horrible on the road posting a 0-2 record with an 8.43 ERA. While neither team has a great batting average they have both been able to score runs. With these two struggling pitchers on the mound the value is on the over for today’s game.
Jeff AlexanderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Tigers +101FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Detroit gets the call as my free play as it is showing value in the underdog role with arguably the best pitcher in baseball on the mound. Verlander has a 1.93 ERA on the season, and that number is down to 1.08 in 4 road starts. Darvish has been good, but his 3.60 home ERA doesn't stand up to Verlander's road work. Darvish beat Detroit 3 times last season, but he posted a 3.60 ERA in those contests. Verlander is more proven against the Rangers over a longer period of time. He's 8-3 all-time against them with an ERA of 2.50. Gotta go with the more proven Verlander and the Tigers in this one.
Jack Jones
Detroit Tigers +101
It's rare that you get the opportunity to back arguably the best pitcher in all of baseball as an underdog. Well, that is what has been given to us tonight as Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers are a dog to the Texas Rangers Thursday.
I'll gladly take advantage and back Verlander at his best price of the season. The 2011 AL MVP & Cy Young winner has gone 4-3 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.208 WHIP in 2013. Verlander is also 8-3 with a 2.50 ERA in 13 career starts against Texas.
Yu Darvish has been putting up solid numbers in his own right, but he's no Verlander. Plus, Darvish has posted a 4.50 ERA in his last three starts. He has also given up seven earned runs over 13 2/3 innings in his last two home starts against Detroit for a 4.61 ERA.
The Tigers are 51-22 in Verlander's last 73 starts overall. Detroit is 37-14 in its last 51 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Tigers are 65-26 in Verlander's last 91 starts with 4 days of rest. Detroit is 8-3 in Verlander's last 11 starts vs. Texas. Bet the Tigers Thursday.
SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
TAMPA BAY -1½ +148 over BostonFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Red Sox are coming off a 9-2 win last night but that was just their second win in their past eight games. Felix Doubront is set to return to the rotation after being temporarily moved to the bullpen. In his last two appearances, one of which was out of the bullpen, Doubront has allowed 23 hits and 12 earned runs over nine innings. His strikeout rate and control are all almost identical to last season but his confidence has slipped and so has his velocity. In three starts versus Tampa Bay last season, he was hit pretty hard and the Rays have been hitting left-handed pitching well this season, to the tune of a .286 BA and .790 OPS. Additionally, The Rays are 14-7 at home and against southpaws at home they are 7-2.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Alex Cobb had an extremely unusual start in his last time out, striking out 13 in just 4.2 innings, while throwing 117 pitches. That is an example of how dominating this right-hander has the potential to be. The Rays have won four of Cobb’s last five starts and all of those win were by three runs or more. Cobb is 3-0 at home with an ERA of 1.95. He’s always enjoyed pitching at home, where he has a career 3.32 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 127.1 IP. Cobb is on the verge of something special with a sinker that he’s beginning to master. Batters had a .333 BA and .523 SLG % against his sinker in 2012. They have a .143 BA and .179 SLG % against it so far in 2013. He also has a 52% groundball rate and, 46 K’s in 47 innings and a very impressive 3.03 xERA. This one sets up perfectly for Cobb to dominate and for the Rays to continue to thrive at home against lefties.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Milwaukee +130 over PITTSBURGHFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
1st 5 innings. Francisco Liriano made his season debut last week against the Mets in New York and it was a nice looking pitching line. Liriano threw 5.1 innings, allowed six hits and struck out nine batters. He also was credited with the win and now his pitching form says 1-0 with a 1.69 ERA. What his pitching line on paper doesn’t reveal is that every ball was scorched. 42% of the batted balls were line-drives and just 25% of batted balls were hit on the ground. It was pure luck that the Mets didn’t score six or more off him. Liriano’s high-wire act has grown tiresome. Last season, neither a temporary move to bullpen nor change of scenery helped him find the plate and his GB% continues to fade. Liriano has topped 160 IP once in four seasons. Two straight years of an atrociously high percentage of disaster starts makes 2010 feel like a distant memory. Liriano is not back and offers up tremendous profit potential as a constant fade and that’s precisely what we’re going to do.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Hiram Burgos has made just four starts and he comes in with a 1-1 record to go along with an ugly 6.86 ERA. However, that inflated ERA is due to one bad start in Cincinnati, where Burgos lasted just three innings and surrendered 1o earned runs. In his other three starts against the Cubbies, Dodgers and these same Pirates, Burgos allowed just 13 hits and six earned runs in 18 innings. Burgos has been in the Brewers system since 2009 but struggled to find consistent success, never moving behind High-A in his first three minor league seasons. He really turned the corner in 2012, when he had the third lowest ERA of any minor league pitcher, posting the following numbers across three levels: 10-4, 1.95 ERA and .210 oppBA. Burgos does not have dominant stuff but he can throw five pitches—fastball, slider, change-up, cutter, and curveball—with good control in any count. Burgos will not be rattled over that last start in Cincinnati. He’s always shown the ability to bounce back after a rough start in the minors and he’ll also have some comfort in knowing he pitched his best game against these Pirates on May 1. This choice is not about backing Burgos, it’s all about fading a Liriano and it’s for that reason, we’ll play this one in the first five innings only.
SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
LOS ANGELES -½ +118 over San JoseFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Regulation only. A lot of folks were concerned that the Kings may have worn themselves out in that brutally difficult series with the Blue Notes. In Game 1 of this series, the Kings didn’t come out strongly but withstood some early San Jose pressure and L.A. got progressively better with each passing minute. By the second and third period, that 2-0 Kings’ lead felt like 6-0. Another day off, another victory, a little more momentum and the Kings are in a better position this game than they were in Game 1. Los Angeles is a powerhouse. They are now 21-6 over their past 27 playoff games. They have won 11 straight games at home and this isn’t the St. Louis Blues they’ll be facing. These are the playoff soft, San Jose Sharks.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Sharks have some nice pieces but what they don’t have is a money goaltender or the playoff grit it takes to keep advancing. San Jose had a chance to win Game 1 but when they couldn’t produce that first goal, they regressed to being the same beatable team in the playoffs that they’ve always been. They now come into Game 2 with less confidence, knowing they failed to produce a single goal in Game 1. Seeing Jonathan Quick between the pipes doesn’t help the Sharkies either. Quick ended Round 1 with a 1.58 goals against average, a .944 save percentage and one shutout and he improved those numbers after a another shutout in the first game. The Sharks were feeling pretty good after defeating the Canucks in four games. Suddenly, San Jose is not feeling so confident anymore and if the Sharks think that the first game was difficult, we can assure you that as good as the Kings were in Game 1, they will be better in Game 2.
Rob Veno
Cincinnati at Miami
Play: Under
Sometimes you have to roll with plays that look simplistic and this game shapes up as one of those. Starting pitching figures to dominate here as the Mat Latos takes on young gem Jose Fernandez. Despite the fact that Latos’ history against Miami shows an 0-3 record, he had tremendous success earlier this season when he threw seven strong innings and allowed only one earned run and posting a 10:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That game was in the hitter friendly Great American Ballpark so look for Latos to be just as effective tonight inside spacious Marlins Park. Miami’s offense continued its abysmal season last night getting shutout by the Reds 4-0 and they now own an MLB-worst 110 runs scored, .224 batting average, .322 slugging percentage, .224 OBP, and .608 OPS. While Fernandez certainly faces the superior lineup, he’s been brilliant over his last couple starts. He’s pitched a combined 13 innings and permitted only 12 base runners while striking out 16 and walking three. For the season he owns an extremely solid 1.16 WHIP. Bullpens are deep enough and strong enough to keep the back third closed here even if Aroldis Chapman doesn’t pitch due to his 26 pitches last night. Despite the low 7 number currently posted, this one sets up nicely for a play on the under.