Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday May, 17

Marc Lawrence

St Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: San Francisco Giants

The Giants and Cardinals wrap up a two-game miniseries in San Francisco Thursday afternoon where Matt Cain matches serves with Adam Wainwright. Cain toes the slab in great KW form with 48 strikeouts and 9 walks this season. He is also 8-3 in his last eleven home team starts during the month of May. With Wainwright in off a rocky outing in his last start, look for Cain to improve to 3-1 in his last four starts at home against St. Louis today. We recommend a 1-unit play on San Francisco.

Charlie Scott

Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Miami Heat -1

In Today's Technology era, sometimes bettors must take a stock market approach in Sports Betting. Tonight Miami ---1 is such a Good Buy, even Mad Money's Jim Cramer endorses it ! However it's with Lenny Dykstra's money. Consider Playing anything -2 or lower. Miami is by far the better team with alot more talent. Add that Miami players will be focused coming off Tuesday Nights loss at Home to Indiana when Miami could only score 75 points in loss. Keep in mind that when Miami last played a lackluster game & gave away a game in round #1 vs the Knicks they came out ready to play the next game.

Rob Vinciletti

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros
Play: Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers fit a solid angle as they are 38-9 as a favorite of -140 or higher in division games vs an opponent they are ahead of in the standings. They are averaging over 5 runs per game at night and have S. Marcum on the mound and he has allowed no runs in 14 innings here in Houston. He has a fine 2.77 road era and 1.80 in his last 3 starts. Tonight he opposes J. Happ who has a 5.40 home era and 7.16 in his last 3 starts. He has a 5.70 career era vs the Brewers. The Astros are 4-12 vs losing teams. Look for the Brewers to win this one.

Ben Burns

Miami @ Atlanta
PICK: Under 7.5

Yesterday's game finished well above the total, producing a dozen combined runs. I expect much better pitching in the finale of this 2-game set.

Beachy has been outstanding for the Braves. Last time out, he allowed one run on just two hits, through six innings. For the season, he's 4-1 with a superb 1.60 ERA and 0.956 WHIP. In seven starts, he's only allowed a single home run.

Beachy has been at his best at home too. In two starts here, he has a 1.29 ERA and 0.714 WHIP.

Nolasco wasn't at his best last time out. However, he's still 4-1 with a solid 3.65 ERA on the season. Plus, he's been at his best on the road. In four starts away from Miami, he's 3-0 with a 2.15 ERA and 0.886 WHIP, averaging greater than seven innings per start.

Even with yesterday's game topping the total, the Marlins have still seen 14 of their 21 road games finish beneath the number. Consider the Under.

Freddy Wills

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros
Play: Milwaukee Brewers

For whatever reason Shaun Marcum has loved to pitch on the road as he has an ERA of 3.20 over the last three years on the road. That's much better than his home record and he's back at it again with a 2.77 ERA this year. He's been great of late posting a 1.80 ERA, but the Brewers lost 2 of 3. He should be motivated to keep that up so he can get a W and the Astros are the team to do it against. He's got a 1.80 ERA over 3 starts vs. the Astros who carry just a .637 OPS in 73 AB vs. Marcum. A few weeks ago I'd be on the Astros, but they are starting to come back to earth as they are now 24th with a .686 OPS vs. RHP while the Brewers are 8th with a .737 OPS vs. LHP.

The Brewers are 8th and they face J.A. Happ who they have dominated. Happ and the Astros are 10-30 in their last 40 with Happ on the mound. He's really not the player they thought he'd be when they traded Roy Oswalt for him. Happ has a 5.40 ERA at home right now and the Brewers have a 1.139 OPS over 80 AB in their careers vs. Happ who carries a 6.08 ERA over the last three years vs. the Brewers. Brewers are 18-7 in their last 25 after Wednesday's loss to the Astros and are 47-17 in their last 64 vs. a losing team. Mark down the Brewers as a victory for Thursday.

Notable Hot Starters:
R.A. Dickey (2-1, 1.15 WHIP, 2.70 ERA)
Matt Cain (2-1, 0.90 WHIP, 2.14 ERA)
James McDonals (2-1, 1.05 WHIP, 2.05 ERA)
Brandon Beachy (2-1, 0.93 WHIP, 2.33 ERA)
Edinson Volquez (3-0, 1.20 WHIP, 1.47 ERA)
Doug Fister (1-2, 0.90 WHIP, 0.54 ERA)
Brandon McCarthy (3-0, 0.97 WHIP, 1.31 EAR)
Chris Sale (1-2, 1.00 WHIP, 2.84 ERA)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
On Thursday we have an ice cold starter that makes for an interesting match up in Luke Hochevar of the Royals. First of the Royals have been red hot since their cold start and Hochevar needs to get with the program. Against the Orioles he could do just that as he has great numbers vs. them in 96 combined at bats the Orioles have a .198 average and .590 OPS.

Notable Cold Starters:
J.A. Happ (1-2, 1.59 WHIP, 7.16 ERA)
Matt Moore (1-2, 1.86 WHIP, 6.43 ERA)
Matt Harrison (1-2, 1.41 WHIP, 8.27 ERA)
Chris Volstad (0-3, 1.71 WHIP, 7.94 ERA)

Dave Cokin

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies
Pick: Colorado Rockies

The Diamondbacks are not a sharp team right now, and while Trevor Cahill has pitched well on the road, Juan Nicasio has better overall metrics. I prefer the Rockies in this series windup.

Jim Feist

Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals
Pick: Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore has a sizzling road record while the Royals have been simply awful at home. The Orioles are 13-3 in their last 16 vs. the American League Central and face a Kansas City team that is 19th in runs scored. First place Baltimore is sixth in runs scored, 5th in slugging, and they've owned KC starter Luke Hochevar, who is 1-4 with a 6.63 ERA against them. Hochevar is struggling this season with a 7.20 ERA and in his last three starts he's 1-2 with a 10.80 ERA. He is off a rare win, but the outing came against an unimpressive White Sox lineup, but it should do wonders for his job security. He managed five strikeouts despite only throwing 58 of his 101 pitches for strikes. Baltimore is 3-1 in the last four starts made by lefty Brian Matusz. Matusz held the Rays to three runs (two earned) on seven hits in 5.2 innings Saturday to pick up his second win of the year. The Orioles are 12-5 in their last 17 games vs. a right-handed starter and 8-17 against the American League East. Play the Orioles.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Indiana/ Miami Under 181.5: Both of these teams have played excellent defense in the playoffs so far and I see more of the same tonight. I felt in game 2 the loss of Bosh would hurt this Miami team defensively, but they came out an played superb defense as they allowed the Pacers just 78 points in the game. Miami has now allowed just 82.5 ppg in their 7 post season games this year. Offensively the Heat also struggled without Bosh, as they were able to score just 75 points in the game and they have now scored just 85 ppg in the first 2 games vs Indiana. Tonight it may not get better for Miami as the Pacers have allowed just 92.4 ppg on 43.5% shooting at home this year, while in their last 4 at home they have allowed just 84.5 ppg. The Pacers have struggled to score vs Miami in the series, and I expect that to continue here as Miami knows that defense will be their key to getting home court advantage back. Look for a game in the low 170's here.

2 UNIT PLAY

Clippers/ San Antonio Over 194: Heading into the Memphis series I felt that the Clippers were more of an up and down the court team, but they didn't play that way in that one. Well in game 1 vs the Spurs they did play that way and they had to if they were hoping to keep pace with the high scoring Spurs. In their 15 game winning streak the Spurs have averaged 110.3 ppg and have hit at least 105 points in 13 of those 15 games. That means we need about 89 points for the Clippers to at least get a tie in this one. In a faster paced game they should get somewhere in the 90's in this game as they have enough offense to get at least that much. The Spurs have played great defense during their stretch, but they did allow 92 points in the opener and they have allowed 93.7 during their 15 game win streak, so 92 or 93 is not out of the question by the Clippers here. I expect this one to barely squeak above 200 points.

SPORTS WAGERS

Series: Miami -291 over INDIANA

We recommended playing the Pacers at +688 to win the series and that bet allows us to free roll for a profit of close to four units for that to occur. You should only make this bet if you wagered on Indiana to win the series at +688. To break this down, should the Heat go on to win this series we would win one unit on them and lose one unit on our Indiana bet to win series for a complete wash. However, if the Pacers go on to win this series, we would lose -2.91 units on this series bet but win 6.88 units on our original bet for a net profit of 3.97 units. Indiana can win this series seeing that they could be up 2-0 and have not looked out of place. Still, you cannot count the Heat out, as they’re very capable of winning one or both games in Indiana. However, the series is simply too close to call and it would be foolish to not take advantage of this “free roll”. Play: Miami -291 to win series (Risking 1 unit).

L.A. Clippers +11 over SAN ANTONIO

The Spurs have won 16 in a row. They have yet to lose in the post-season and in five playoff games they’ve barely broken a sweat. San Antonio beat the Jazz by 25 and 31 points respectively in the first two games played in San Antonio, in round one. They opened the second round by clobbering the Clippers by 16. This team is winning easy and what that has done is created an inflated number on them. After an exhausting series against the Grizzlies, the Clippers could be excused for that 16-point loss. Being an 11-point pooch in game two is not only an insult, it’s bulletin board material that the Clippers will use to get even more motivated. They have flaws, the Clippers do, but they also have Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. When two of the five players on the court are that good, you always have a fighting chance. Look for the Clip Joint to regroup and play a much better game this time around. The Spurs simply can’t keep blowing out opponents. Who could blame them for entering this game with some complacency? Asking the Clippers to hang around here is not a tall order. Nobody is talking about this series or the Clippers. They’re supposed to go down in four straight. They’re being completely disrespected and that’s something pros hate more than anything. A big response from this forgotten group is a must. Play: L.A. Clippers +11 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

SPORTS WAGERS

Seattle +150 over CLEVELAND

Zach McAllister was acquired from the Yankees in ’10 and started four games with Cleveland in ’11, posting a 6.11 ERA. He’s pitched 30 major league innings in his brief career and has surrendered 40 hits and 24 earned runs for a BAA of .315 and an ERA of 5.28. He doesn’t walk many and in two games this season he’s struck out 13 in 13 frames but his BAA is still high at .280. The latter stat makes him too big of a risk to be spotting 1.62 with. With this being a day game after a night game, a couple of Indian starters could also be given a day off. Of course that holds true for the Mariners as well but the difference is they’re not heavily favored side. Hector Noesi comes in with some rather ugly numbers that include an ERA of 6.32. However, he’s been much better in three starts in May that has seen Noesi post a 0.97 WHIP and a 4.12 ERA. His strand rate of 55% is one of the lowest in the majors among qualified starters and that’s a number that suggests he’s had a lot of misfortune. His BAA is just .248 and his xERA in his last three starts was 3.27. Noesi is better than his surface stats indicate and he certainly qualifies as a buy low candidate. Play: Seattle +150 (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. METS +109 over Cincinnati

Basketball players look forward to playing at places like Madison Square Gardens or the Staples Center. NFL players look forward to playing on Monday Night Football and baseball players want to play at Yankee Stadium. The Reds get their chance to play at Yankee Stadium tomorrow night for the first time since ’08 and it figures to be on their minds. They also have a tough task here, having to face knuckleballer R.A. Dickey. Dickey’s consistent track record in two years since being inserted into the rotation cannot be ignored. He throws strikes, he keeps hitters off balance, he has a strong groundball profile and he wins games. The Reds unloaded four prospects to acquire Mat Latos and with that comes some added pressure to perform. Latos was expected to be the staff anchor and so far he has not delivered. His 39% groundball rate, his 5.40 ERA on the road and his early season injury suggests he might be pitching through some health issues. His two wins have come against the Giants in San Fran and the Pirates. Latos has been hit hard by just about every other team he’s faced and the Mets are swinging well these past 10 days. Cincinnati is batting just .230 against right-handers. All signs point to the host here. Play: N.Y. Mets +109 (Risking 2 units).

Minnesota +218 over DETROIT

Weren’t the Tigers supposed to run away with the AL Central this season en route to a sure playoff spot? It’s early but the Tigers are a game under .500 after losing to Nick Blackburn and the Twins last night. The bullpen has been a disaster, the Tigers have allowed 26 runs in their past three games and they’ve now lost four of six. This is a team that is currently in peril. Doug Fister's numbers have been strong in his first two starts after a stint on the disabled list but bear in mind that those assignments were against a pair of weak AL West rosters in pitcher-friendly parks (at Seattle and at Oakland). His 0.54 ERA is unsustainable. Suddenly, since recalling some players from the minors, the Twinkies are playing much better. Minnesota is 3-3 over its last six. They took two of three from the Blue Jays last weekend and won the opener here last night. P. J. Walters didn’t walk a batter in his season debut against the aforementioned Blue Jays and was the hard luck loser in a 2-1 final. At the age of 27, Walters has compiled solid minor league numbers and could finally be ready to take that next step. The Twins are playing with house money this season. They were expected to lose a lot games while the Tigers are playing under some early season pressure to wake up. Imagine getting swept by the Twins in a brief two game series. Current form suggests it could happen. Play: Minnesota +218 (Risking 2 units).

EZWINNERS

Detroit Tigers -230

Doug Fister has been impressive in his two starts this season, posting fourteen strikeouts in sixteen and two thirds inning of work to go along with an ERA of just 0.54. Despite those great numbers, Fister does not have a win to show for it thanks to a lack of run support from his teammates. I expect Fister to have another great start against the light hitting Twins and I do expect the Tigers to put some runs on the board for him against the Twins starting pitcher T.J. Walters who will be making his first road big league start for Minnesota. Play on Detroit.

JR O'Donnell

SF Giants -127

We love the G-Men here despite their anemic ability to score runs, as they have one of the best home record for runs scored allowing only 2.8/g. Meanwhile they send out Matt Cain who is 2-2, 2.28 ERA in "7" starts & a strong .74 WHIP. He averages 7& 1/3 per outing, and has almost a 4:1 K to BB ratio. In his last "6" games he has allowed only "8" runs. His mound opponent is 2-4, huge 6.16 ERA & 1.50 WHIP. In "7" starts he seldom gets into the "6th" inning, and has surrendered "45" hits in "38" innings plus "7" home runs & a .300 batting average. In his last start he went only 4.1 innings and had a 108 pitch count.

CHRIS JORDAN

My free winner is in the NBA Playoffs tonight, as I take a look at the Indiana Pacers, plus the single point, over the Miami Heat, as I have to question who moved this line after it opened Indiana -1. I watched this line carefully, pretty much since the end of Game 2, and I can tell you there is probably only one person in the sports-betting world who has enough power to cause a domino effect with a betting line, like the one I watched over the last 24 hours.

And since the public isn’t exactly the type to worry about an NBA Playoff game the night before a game, there has to be a reason the point spread has moved from the Pacers laying -1 point – or -1-1/2 at some places, to the Heat now laying the single digit. And that's to draw enough interest on to the Heat, a vivid decoy play, so the real wager can be made tonight at tip-off, on Indiana.

Seriously, we have the a Miami team traveling off a loss without a key component (Chris Bosh) to its scoring, and having to face a very dangerous basketball team that brings a 25-11 record back home with it.

And in my opinion, the Pacers seized the opportunity to take control of this series with an outright win in Game 2, in Miami, the overwhelming favorite to win the Eastern Conference now that the Chicago Bulls are out-of-the-way.

The Pacers are well-rounded, more balanced team than the Heat, believe that, as they've had five players average double figures, with George Hill and Tyler Hansbrough close behind, contributing 9.6 and 9.3 points, respectively. And with Miami minus the services of Bosh – he was averaging 18 points and 7.9 rebounds per game – I think it poses more of a problem than most South Beach residents would like to believe.

That all being said, I'm still not sure if the sophistication of the world's No. 1 sports-betting group is manipulating the line tonight in this game - heck, it might have already taken the summer off and halted betting at the end of the NBA regular season - but I'll certainly be intrigued and will be tuned in to my odds page right up to the 4 p.m., pacific tip-off, to see where the line closes.

Regardless of the situation, the play for me is on the Pacers.

1♦ INDIANA

JEFF BENTON

Your Thursday freebie comes in hoops, play the Over between the Clippers and the Spurs. This one is just too easy. Game One was an Over as the game eclipsed the total by nearly ten points.

The Clippers and Spurs have played four straight Overs now, and Overs in six of the last eight meetings overall dating back to the 2010 season.

It is practically a given that the Spurs will wind up with at least 100 points, as Coach Popovich's team has scored 102 points or more in four of their five playoff games thus far, and dating back to the regular season the Spurs have cracked the century mark in 14 of their last 15 games.

So if the Spurs are able to get their usual triple digits, there is a better than average shot that Game Two finds its way Over the total much the way Game One did.

With the Clippers a little "antsy" not to get blown out of the building again, look for Los Angeles to do their best to keep pace points-wise.

I am playing Game Two to find the Over column.

2♦ OVER