Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Philadelphia/ Miami Under 8: While the Miami offense has been a bit better in their last 2 games, i don't see it continuing here vs a hot pitcher in Kyle Kendrick. Kyle comes in with an 0.82 ERA and an 0.77 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Who did he face in those 3 starts? Oh Just the Mets (7th in scoring), St Louis 11th in scoring) and the Reds (14th in scoring). The Mets and Reds games were on the road and he allowed 0 ERs in 16 innings. Now he is home and gets to face a Miami squad that is last in nearly every offensive category. On the road the Marlins have averaged just 3 rpg and they hit .244, but it will be very hard for them to improve on those numbers, especially since Kyle has a 1.53 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Fish, not allowing more than 2 runs in any of those games. Alex Sanabia is not off to a great start with a 4.45 ERA, but the Phils are 26th in scoring (3.57 rpg) and he did face the Phils once in his career (2011), allowing just 1 ER in 6 innings. The Phils will have to do the bulk of the scoring in this one for it to go over, but I just don't see them putting up much in this one, especially in Kendrick starts mowing down Marlins from the get go. I look for a 4-2 or 3-2 type game here.
St Louis Milwaukee Over 8.5: So how long will Westbrook continue to carry an 0.98 ERA? I say that ends at this game. Jake has a 4.24 ERA in his career, including a 4.46 road ERA, plus we note that this is his worst month (ERA wise) as he carries a 5.00 ERA in 39 career starts during May. Making it even harder on him in this one is the fact that Milwaukee is very strong offensively at home, where they average 5.53 rpg and hit .271 on the year. Milwaukee is swinging real hot bats of late as hey have averaged 6.4 rpg in their last 5 games. On the other side we have Wily Peralta, who is 3-2 in his teams start on the year, but with a high 5.04 ERA. At home he has 3 starts and is 1-1 in those starts with a 6.19 ERA. His home starts this year have averaged 11.33 rpg, while his night starts have put up 11.75 rpg. The Over is 4-1 in his starts this year and 4-0 in his night starts. The Cardinal offense is scuffling some as they haven't scored more than 4 runs in 9 of their last 10 games, but a visit to the 22nd ranked staff and one of the worst pens in the league should change that. Oh and BTW, the Cardinals do have the worst pen in the league. I see early and late runs in this one, which should get us to 12 or more runs scored.
BRAD WILTON
Thursday's comp play comes in the American League, and it goes on the Angels as they return home after a road trip that saw them go just 2-5 versus division rivals Oakland and Seattle.
Not that the Halos or tonight's starter, the 0-4 Joe Blanton are setting the world on fire this spring, but they do catch the Baltimore Orioles a little road-weary. The O's did come up on the short-side last night at Safeco to put them at 4-3 on their current road swing, but after a late night in the Emerald City, I have to believe that even though the Orioles are playing the better brand of baseball, they will be just a little tired when they hit the field in Orange County tonight.
Chris Tillman rates the edge over Blanton and is coming into this start off a win in Oakland, but the Orioles are just 2-8 the last 10 series meetings versus the Halos, and the Angels are back at home where they have won 6 of their past 8 games.
In a near pick situation, will side with the Angels at home over the Orioles.
1* L.A. ANGELS