DUNKEL INDEX
NBA
Miami at Indiana
The Pacers look to stay alive in the series and build on their 7-2 ATS record in their last 9 games as an underdog of 1 to 4 1/2 points. Indiana is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+3 1/2)
Game 545-546: Miami at Indiana (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 125.222; Indiana 123.910
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 1 1/2; 178
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 3 1/2; 182 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+3 1/2); Under
MLB
San Francisco at Miami
The Giants look to take advantage of a Miami team that is 1-4 in Anibal Sanchez' last 5 starts as a favorite of -150 to -200. San Francisco is the pick (+140) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+140)
Game 951-952: San Diego at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stults) 14.698; NY Mets (Hefner) 14.380
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+105); Over
Game 953-954: Atlanta at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Delgado) 15.476; Cincinnati (Bailey) 16.127
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-115); Under
Game 955-956: San Francisco at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Vogelsong) 15.431; Miami (Sanchez) 13.739
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Miami (-160); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+140); Under
Game 957-958: Philadelphia at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Blanton) 14.501; St. Louis (Westbrook) 16.170
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-145); Over
Game 959-960: Detroit at Cleveland (12:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 14.634; Cleveland (Masterson) 15.642
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-170); 7
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+150); Over
Game 961-962: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (DeVries) 15.549; White Sox (Humber) 14.766
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+140); Under
Game 963-964: LA Angels at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Haren) 16.812; Seattle (Vargas) 15.775
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 7
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-120); Over
Ben Burns
Angels @ Mariners
PICK: Under 6.5
This O/U line is low for good reason. Vargas is 2-0 with a superb 1.27 ERA and 0.844 WHIP in three home starts. He's averaging better than seven innings per home start and hasn't given up a home run here. All three of his home starts have fallen below the total, each producing five or fewer combined runs. They had scores of 2-1, 2-3 and 4-1.
Going back further finds the "under" at 6-0 in Vargas' last six starts here, dating back to last season. He went at least six complete innings in ALL six of those starts and never allowed more than a single earned run in any of them.
Vargas has enjoyed some success in this series. In nine starts vs. the Angels, he has an outstanding 2.20 ERA and 1.027 WHIP. Six of those nine games finished below the number, his last start against them finished with a score of 1-0.
Haren has gotten off to a bit of a tough start. However, he's still a highly capable starter and he should be pleased to be facing Seattle. He's 10-5 with a 2.60 ERA vs. the Mariners. (The "under" is 10-5-4) Note that each of Haren's last three starts have fallen below the total. Each finished with five or fewer combined runs.
With a 3-1 final yesterday, the Angels have now seen five straight games produce five or fewer combined runs. Consider the Under.
Steve Merril
Phillies @ Cardinals
PICK: Over 8
The Phillies hit the road after a rough series with the Nationals to take on the Cardinals. Philadelphia's offense hopes to get Jimmy Rollins back from paternity leave as they get a crack at Jake Westbrook who is 4-3 with a 2.41 ERA in eight starts. Westbrook’s last two starts have been rough as he gave up 8 runs and 18 hits against the Dodgers and Cubs. All four of Westbrook's home starts have gone Over the total this season. Last year, he took on the Phillies twice and gave up 3 runs and nine hits in those outings. Hunter Pence (7-12), Placido Polanco (9-28), Jimmy Rollins (5-9) and Ty Wigginton (5-15) all have had their success against the Cardinals’ starter. The Phillies are hitting .257 on the road with 13 of their 21 games away from home going Over the total. The team is hitting over .280 in their last eight games. The St. Louis bullpen is still below 50% in converting saves at home so they can be touched up.
Joe Blanton makes his ninth start of the season. The righty is 4-3 with a 3.61 ERA striking out 39 while walking only seven. He was rocked his last time out giving up 7 runs and nine hits in just over four innings pitched at home against Boston. Blanton last faced the Cardinals back in 2010 and gave up 9 runs and 17 hits in those games. The Cardinals’ offense continues to put up over 6 runs per game at home while hitting nearly .300. They have gone Over in almost 75% of their home games because of that. The Phillies’ bullpen is 2-5 with a 5.33 ERA on the road so they are vulnerable and they give up runs. We recommend playing the Over in this game tonight between the Phillies and Cardinals.
Matt Fargo
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Los Angeles Angels
Despite two straight wins, the Angels are still sitting in last place in the American League West but at least they have been keeping pace with Texas which has been very average of late. Los Angeles took the final two games in Oakland behind pitching gems from C.J. Wilson and Jered Weaver and it hopes to get another one in this series opener. The Angels have struggled on the road this season but they are 3-3 on this current roadtrip and they have owned this series with wins in 36 of the last 52 meetings.
The Mariners are also hanging around as they are sitting a half-game ahead of the Angels after winning five of their last six games including two of three against the Rangers to open this homestand. The offense continues to hold Seattle down though as it is hitting only .232 which is second lowest in the American League and it is one of only three teams in baseball with an on-base percentage less than .300. the numbers get worse at home as the Mariners .201 home average is the worst in baseball.
Dan Haren takes the hill for the Angels and it has been a difficult year thus far. He has only one win on the season while the Angels have gone a dismal 1-8 in his nine starts but it has not entirely been his fault. He has a 4.37 ERA which is well above what he normally puts up but it is far from horrible. He has allowed three runs or less in six of his nine starts including three of four on the road and facing Seattle can turn things around in a hurry as Haren has tossed eight straight quality starts against the Mariners.
He will be opposed by Jason Vargas who has been pretty solid of late with four quality outings over his last five starts as well as all three of his home starts on the season. This is why we are getting value the other way. Vargas has been up and down for the most part and while he has pitched well against the Angels over the last couple years, the wins have not been coming as the Mariners have lost five of his last seven starts against them including three of four at home.
Sean Murphy
Giants @ Marlins
PICK: Under 6.5
These two teams met nine times last season, with only two of those games reaching at least seven runs.
I'm expecting another low-scoring affair on Thursday, as we see a terrific pitching matchup between Ryan Vogelsong and Anibal Sanchez.
Vogelsong is proving that last year wasn't a fluke, as he's posted a 2.27 ERA and 1.17 WHIP through seven outings, spanning 47 2/3 innings of work so far this season. He was an 'under' machine in 2011, and has picked up right where he left off here in 2012, recording a 2-5 o/u mark, with each of his last four starts playing 'under' the total.
Vogelsong has faced the Marlins three times since the start of last season, allowing a grand total of four earned runs in 22 2/3 innings.
Anibal Sanchez has become the Marlins ace with Josh Johnson struggling to regain his form. Sanchez has worked exactly seven innings in each of his last six starts, allowing two earned runs or less in six of those outings. In fact, Sanchez has held the opposition to two earned runs or less in all but one of his eight starts this season. That one outlier came in a narrow 3-2 loss to the Pirates last week.
Note that the 'under' has cashed in each of Sanchez's last six starts, with none of those games topping five runs. In four career starts against the Giants, all coming since the start of the 2010 season, he's given up only three earned runs in 31 innings of work.
Both teams are coming off fairly high-scoring series', but it's not as if either have been predominantly 'over' clubs this season. The Giants check in with a 21-22-1 o/u mark, while the Marlins have posted a 22-21-1 o/u record. Look for a pitcher's duel in Miami tonight.
Rob Vinciletti
Angels vs. Mariners
Play: Under 6½
This game fits a totals system that has cashed 12 of 15 times playing under for road favorites off a road favored win by 2 or more runs vs an opponent off a home dog win by 2 or more runs. The Angles have played under in 5 of 5 on the road when the total is 7 or less and all 3 times as a rod favorite from -100 to -125. In games vs Left handers 12 of 15 have stayed under. Seattle is hitting just .204 at home this season and have a solid 2.35 home bullpen era. Dan Haren for LA has gone under in 3 of 4 road starts and 10 of vs Seattle. Vargas has gone under in all 3 home starts and has a stellar 1.27 home era. Look for this one to stay under the total tonight.
Jimmy Boyd
Giants/Marlins Under 7
Expect a pitcher's duel between Vogelsong and Sanchez to result in a low-scoring game in Miami this evening. The under in 4-0 in Vogelsong's last 4 starts as he has limited the opposition to 1 or no earned runs in each of those outings. It is also worth noting that no more than 5 total runs were scored in any of these games. The under is 6-0 in Sanchez's last 6 starts as he has held the opposition to 3 earned runs or fewer in each of those games. It should also be noted that no more than 5 total runs were scored in any of these contests. In addition, these two clubs have played to the under in each of the last 7 times they've faced off. 7 runs in the most they've combined for during this stretch, and they have only averaged a total of 3.9 runs in these matchups. Take the under.
Brad Diamond
Philadelphia Phillies vs. St.Louis Cardinals
Play : Philadelphia Phillies
No doubt, the Phillies seem dead in the water against St. Louis versus a quality hurler. However, the Red and White have won 7 of 10 on the road and show at a incredible 23-8 in Thursday action. Finally, the Phillies are 11-3 with Blanton against winning baseball teams.
Marc Lawrence
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Minnesota Twins
The Twins and White Sox conclude a three games series when rookie Cole DeVries makes his MLB debut against Philip Humber at Comiskey Park in the Windy City Thursday evening. DeVries, a Minnesota native who pitched at the University of Minnesota, was called up from AAA Rochester for this game. With Humber still reeling after tossing a perfect game a month ago at Seattle, and 0-4 with a 5.48 ERA in his last four home starts, look for the Twins to pull the surprise here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Minnesota.
Frank Jordan
Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Los Angeles Angels
The LA Angels aren't quite where they want to be as they are in last place, five games under .500 and seven games back. With all that it seems like things are turning around as Weaver is pitching well and Pujols seems to be heating up finally, but the man person the need to get going in Dan Haren who is 1-5 with an era over 4. Some of Haren's problems has been he is trying to be perfect as the Angels have scored three or fewer runs in eight of his nine starts including three shutouts. Look for Haren to pitch a gem and the Angels to finally give him runs as they win going away 7-2. Play LA Angels
Dave Cokin
Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners
Pick: Seattle Mariners
Dan Haren is not pitching all that badly, but he sure isn't winning. The Halos are 1-8 with Haren throwing. Jason Vargas has been outstanding at home, so I'm backing the Mariners here.
Jim Feist
Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners
Pick: Seattle Mariners
Seattle is home and playing well on a 4-1 run against righties and they face struggling LA righty Dan Haren, who is 0-3 with a 6.61 ERA his last three starts. This LA offense has struggled all year and against the AL West the Angels are 3-11. Meanwhile Seattle lefty Jason Vargas is 5-3 with a 3.34 ERA and has a 2.39 ERA against the Angels in 64 innings pitched, making this a great spot for the home team. Play Mariners.
SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia +138 over ST. LOUIS
The Cardinals are coming off a sweep of the Padres but it wasn’t as easy as it seemed. The Cards had numerous chances in all three games to blow it wide open but nobody could deliver the big hit. St. Louis had lost four straight prior to sweeping the Padres and over its last five games, they’re batting just .247. Jake Westbrook is another starter who has appeared to have revitalized his career. He has a 2.41 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in his first 52 IP. Westbrook’s stock is high and that’s usually the best time to sell, as this is a pitcher with a career ERA of 4.27 and a career BAA of .276. Westbrook is the same pitcher with the same mix of pitches as the one we’ve been accustomed to seeing over the years. His 82% strand rate and 25% hit rate reveal how fortunate he’s been. Chances are his luck runs out against a Phillies team whose current players have 139 career AB’s against and are batting a combined .324. Joe Blanton appeared in just 11 games last year due to elbow problems. Blanton has been an enigma for years with a strong skill set but an inability to perform to the level suggested by those skills. This year he’s healthy and he’s pitching to his potential. Blanton has walked just seven batters in 53 frames while striking out 39. He has a solid groundball rate of 46% and his 3.74 ERA is right in line with his lower xERA of 3.41. Blanton is legit while Westbrook is more of a phony. Let's take advantage. Play: Philadelphia +138 (Risking 2 units).
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Minnesota/ Chicago Over 9: Last night I played an Under in the Yanks game and part of the reason was because they had never seen Will Smith, who was making his first MLB start. Well I was was wrong as the Yanks teed off on that kid. Tonight Im looking to take an over here despite the fact that Cole Devries will be making his first MLB start. From 2007 to 2009 Cole was a starter in the Minors, but in 2010 and 2011 he was primarily a reliever and did pretty good in that role. Back in 2009 he had 26 starts and was just 7-14 with a 4.84 ERA for AA New Britain, while in AAA Rochester this year he has gone just 1-4 with a 4.24 ERA, so as you can see he has struggled as a start in the Minors and I expect him to struggle in his first MLB start tonight. Philip Humber perfect game is a distant memory as he comes in with a 7.86 ERA since that start and his work won't get any easier tonight vs a hot hitting Minnesota squad. The Twins were shutout last night, but since the return of Justin Morneau they have been scoring a lot. Just came back at the start of this trip and the Twins have come on to score 6.3 rpg, compared to scoring under 4 rpg prior to his return. On this trip Twin games have averaged 12.1 rpg, while Chicago's last 5 at home have averaged 11.4 rpg. Both teams should be good for at least 4 runs each in this one and that will at worse give us a push. I expect around 13 runs in this one so I'm not looking for a push. It should be easy.
Atlanta +110 over CINCINNATI: So hard to get a 4 game sweep of a team in MLB these days and I don't expect the Reds to be able to pull off the trick tonight. The Atlanta offense has struggled in this series and they should be without Chipper for this one, but they still have good offense on this team and they are taking on a pitcher that has struggled in his own park. Homer Bailey is 14-12 in 46 career starts at this park, but he has a high 5.07 ERA in those starts. This year he is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA at home, but more disturbing for him may be his night stats. In his career Home has a 4.51 ERA in day starts, but a 5.10 ERA at night and this year he is 0-2 with a 6.19 ERA in 3 night starts. Randal Delgado has struggled on the road this year (1-2, 5.40 ERA), but he is opposite of Homer as he is better at night (2-1 with a 3.33 ERA in 5 starts) than in the day (0-3 w/a 5.71 ERA in 3 starts) and in his lone start this year vs the Reds he allowed just 1 run (0 ER) in 6.2 innings of work. Homer is 1-0 with a 2.13 ERA in 2 career starts vs the Braves, but i expect him to struggle tonight vs an Atlanta that just does not wanna get swept here.
Miami/ San Francisco Over 7: I kinda missed the boat on this one and should have grabbed it at 6.5 this morning, but It really did look to easy and those games don't always tend to go as easy. The fact that it looks real easy and the fact that I lost the half a run is why I have it at a 3 unit play and not higher. in the beginning it looked as if this new park in Miami would be a pitchers park, but that has changed as their home games have averaged 9.3 rpg, with the OVER going 14-4-1 in those games. We all know that San Fran home games are low scoring, but out on the road their games have averaged a solid 9.2 rpg. The Giants have struggled to score for much of the year, but they do average 4.4 rpg on the road and they have been hot offensively overall of late as they have averaged 5.14 rpg in their last 7 games. Miami cmes in averaging 4.68 rpg aat home and they have justv put up 18 runs in the 3 game series vs the Rockies, so they are swinging hot bats. Now we do have some solid pitching on the mound and both Vogelsong and Sanchez have done well vs tonight's opponents, but neith has faced these teams in this park. e also note that Vogelsong has a 3.54 ERA on the road, while Sanchez has a 3.15 ERA at home, plus both pens are not great either. We should get a few late runs in this one and thyat will help push this one over the total.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Miami -3 over INDIANA: Despite playing without Bosh and Haslem, I still expect the heat to close out the series tonight in easy fashion. after scoring just 75 points in each of game 2 and game 3, the Heat have really upped their offense and have now scored 108 ppg in their last 2 games and they know they can win here after beating Indiana on this floor by 8 points in game 4. The pacers defense that had been so good this year, has been torn apart in the last 2 games and even though Granger and West are probable for this game, i don't expect them to be 100% and that will certainly hurt at the defensive end, plus at the offensive end as well. Indiana hasn't been great on offense this year and they just won't cpome up with enough points to keep this one close. Miami has all the momentum tight now and will close out this series with an easy win.