MATT RIVERS
After unders in the first three games of this series, the tide has turned as the last pair of games have seen the over come through.
I like the over again tonight if only for the fact that this is an elimination game, and when elimination is on line, teams tend to play a little more desperate tending to foul a little more often. They also tend to shoot a little more from behind the arc, as more scoring chances materialize.
Four of Indiana's last seven playoff games have ended up over the total, and with Miami having posted triple figures in the last two games, I have a strong feeling that it will be five of the last eight having landed in the over column this postseason.
Go with the Heat-Pacers to play their third straight over tonight at Bankers Life Field House.
1♦ OVER
JEFF BENTON
Your Thursday freebie is the Atlanta Braves to avoid the four game sweep in Cincinnati tonight.
Season series concludes for the Braves and Reds, and after a short two game split in Atlanta earlier this month, the Reds are on the verge of pulling off a huge four game sweep of the Braves tonight at the Great American Ball Park.
Four game sweeps are pretty darn rare, and I am banking against the broom coming out tonight when Randal Delgado and Homer Bailey toe the slab.
The Braves have been held to just five runs total in the three games played, but Reds starter Homer Bailey's ERA is over five for his last three starts, and that does include allowing just one run to Atlanta in a no-decision two starts ago.
Randal Delgado has allowed two earned runs or less in three of his last four starts, and he did hold the Reds without an earned run two starts ago in a no-decision.
Calling for the Braves to avoid the humiliating four game sweep tonight as they head back home with a salvage win.
3♦ ATLANTA
Jack Jones
Padres/Mets UNDER 8
Because two little-known starting pitchers are going at it tonight in New York, I believe oddsmakers have set the bar too high tonight. Both Eric Stults and Jeremy Hefner are better than they are getting credit for. Plus, they'll be up against two of the worst line-ups in baseball.
Scheduled to make his first major league start for the Mets is Jeremy Hefner (0-1, 2.25 ERA), who gave up two runs, four hits and struck out five over five innings of relief after replacing the injured Miguel Batista during Saturday's 2-0 loss to the Blue Jays. Hefner compiled a 2.72 ERA over seven starts at Triple-A Buffalo before being recalled last week.
The Padres will give the ball to Eric Stults (0-0, 2.70 ERA), who was claimed by San Diego two days after being designated for assignment by the Chicago White Sox last week. The Padres didn't waste much time throwing Stults into action - the left-hander yielded two runs, four hits and three walks over 6 2-3 innings but didn't factor in Saturday's 3-2 win over the Los Angeles Angels.
Stults is 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA in three career starts against the Mets. Hefner should have success against a San Diego team that is batting a major league-worst .191 with men on second or third. The Padres went a combined 2 for 22 (.091) in such situations during a three-game sweep in St. Louis. The Mets are hitting just .240 and scoring 3.2 runs/game at home this year. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
Jeff Alexander
Seattle Mariners +107
Seattle has proved to be no pushover. It just took 2 of 3 from Texas and is now showing value in the home dog role versus an Angels club that is just 9-15 on the road. LA's Dan Haren is struggling. He is just 1-5 with a 4.37 ERA in 9 starts and the Halos have lost 8 of those. He's carrying a 6.61 ERA over his last 3 starts. The Mariners are in good hands with Jason Vargas, who is 5-3 with a 3.34 ERA, including 2-0 at home with an ERA of 1.27. The M's are 5-1 in his last 6 home starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a home underdog. Take Seattle.
Bryan Power
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets
PICK: New York Mets
San Diego's four road wins are the fewest in baseball and considering how much this team is struggling to produce runs, they are the perfect opponent for the Mets right now. Sure New York has its own fair share of offensive issues right now, but those of the Padres are much worst as San Diego is dead last in MLB with a .191 batting average with runners in scoring position. This includes a dreadful 2 of 22 against St. Louis where they were swept the last three days. The Mets figure to get back on track here.
WUNDERDOG
Miami at Indiana
Pick: Under 182
Clubs that had that poor a defensive game, like Indiana did in Game 5, come back with the "A" game defense in the next contest. And although Indiana gave up 115 points to the Heat in Game 5, their defense is pretty good - especially at home. Indiana has held playoff opponents to just 88 points per game. The Heat enter this game at 24-6 to the UNDER in their last 30 games on a single day of rest and has kept their opponents to only 84.8 points per game. Also, when facing a winning team this season, Miami is 29-17 UNDER and over the past two seasons the Heat are 29-10 UNDER after a game they won by 20+ points. The Pacers have followed a double-digit loss with 70% UNDERs in their last 10, and both of these teams are 60% to the UNDER in the playoffs. Take the UNDER.
Tony George
Atlanta Braves +110
I lost out on Tuesday with the Braves as a top play damn it, and Cincy is looking for a four-game sweep at home here, and I think the Braves avoid it and get their offense going against a winless pitcher (Bailey) this year with over a 4 ERA. Atlanta's offense in a funk, but with a heart-breaking loss last night and staring at a four-game sweep, I like the Braves to make a stand and avoid a sweep. Atlanta way too good of a team to lose four in a row, and even without Chipper Jones in the rotation I like them tonight.