SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Phoenix (10-4 SU and ATS) at L.A. Lakers (10-4, 8-6 ATS)
The Lakers return to Staples Center looking to get back on track in the Western Conference finals when they face the revived Suns in Game 5.
After posting double-digit victories in Games 1 and 2 at home, Los Angeles dumped Games 3 and 4 in Phoenix. On Tuesday night, the Lakers fell 115-106 as a 1½-point road favorite, their second consecutive SU and ATS setback after an eight-game winning streak (7-1 ATS). Kobe Bryant piled up 38 points, along with 10 assists, but although he hit 6 of 9 from three-point range, L.A. finished just 9 of 28 from beyond the arc (32.1 percent).
Phoenix won the battle of the benches in Game 3, with its reserves outscoring L.A.’s subs 54-20, though starters Amare Stoudemire (21 points, eight rebounds) and Steve Nash (15 points, eight assists) still led the way. The Suns also posted a huge 53-36 rebounding edge, and Alvin Gentry’s troops hit 22 of 32 from the free-throw line, while L.A. got to the free-throw line just 13 times, making seven.
Los Angeles is still 5-3 SU and ATS in eight meetings with Phoenix this season. The home team has cashed in nine of the last 10 meetings, and the chalk is 4-1 ATS in the last five matchups. These squads also met in the first round in 2006 and 2007, with Phoenix taking both series, rallying from a 3-1 deficit in ’06 while going 4-3 ATS, and rolling in five games in ’07 (2-3 ATS).
The SU winner is 15-1 ATS in the last 16 Lakers-Suns clashes (8-0 this year). Also, the SU winner has cashed in 23 straight games for Phoenix (including all 14 playoff contests), and the SU winner is 12-2 ATS in Los Angeles’ 14 playoff games this year.
Los Angeles is 41-7 inside Staples Center this season, but just 21-25-2 ATS. The Lakers are 7-0 SU (5-2 ATS) at home in the playoffs. Phoenix is 26-22 SU (27-21 ATS) on the highway (4-3 SU and ATS in the postseason).
The Lakers sport positive pointspread streaks of 7-3 overall (5-1 last six) and 5-2 at home (all as a favorite), but they are also 4-13 ATS in their last 17 starts following one day of rest. The Suns are 2-4 ATS in their last five conference finals outings, but the pointspread streaks are all positive from there, including 35-16-1 overall, 6-1 after a SU win, 5-2 as a ‘dog, 20-7-1 after an ATS victory and 36-15-1 after a day off.
Los Angeles is on “over” surges of 10-1-1 overall (7-0-1 last eight), 5-0 at home, 6-1 in the conference finals (5-0 last five), 6-0-1 after a day off and 7-2 as a favorite. Likewise, Phoenix is on “over” stretches of 7-1 overall (5-0 last five), 5-1 in conference finals and 5-1 after either a SU or an ATS win, though the under is 7-3-1 in the Suns’ last 11 roadies.
Finally, the over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this rivalry, including 4-0 in this series, and the total has gone high in 13 of the last 17 clashes between these Pacific Division rivals. Plus, the over has been the play in 10 of the last 13 meetings at Staples Center (including five of the last six).
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS and OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia (26-19) at N.Y. Mets (24-23)
Cole Hamels (5-2, 3.92 ERA) shoots for his fourth straight victory and tries to snap his team’s four-game losing skid when he matches up against the streaking Mets and Mike Pelfrey (6-1, 2.86) in the finale of a three-game series at Citi Field.
New York has blanked Philadelphia in the first two games of this series, following up Tuesday’s 8-0 win with Wednesday’s 5-0 victory. The Phillies have followed up a four-game winning streak and a 10-2 hot streak by losing six of their last eight games, including the last four in a row. The offense has gone stone cold, getting shutout three times in the last four games while managing just five runs in their last six losses.
The Mets have rebounded from a 3-10 slump by winning four in a row, all at home. They’re now 18-9 at Citi Field compared with 6-14 on the road. Also, while the Phillies’ offense has stumbled, New York has tallied 24 runs during the four-game winning streak and 35 runs in the last six games (five wins). The Mets now trail the Phillies by just three games in the N.L. East.
The Mets now hold a slim 3-2 edge in the season series, but the Phillies are still 13-5 in the last 18 clashes in this N.L. East rivalry, going 5-3 in the last eight in New York. That said, the host has won 14 of the last 21 meetings.
Philadelphia’s last win came on Friday when Hamels held the Red Sox to a run on three hits and one walk while striking out eight en route to a 5-1 home victory. The Phillies have won five straight games in back of Hamels, with the lefty posting a 2.36 ERA in his last four outings. Also, Philadelphia is 3-1 when Hamels pitches on the road, even though the San Diego native has given up 14 earned runs in 23 2/3 innings (5.32 ERA) on the highway.
Hamels is 2-4 with a 4.12 ERA in nine career starts against the Mets, with Philadelphia going 2-4 in the last six. He faced New York a combined five times in 2008 and 2009 and gave up exactly four runs in the first four contests before a dominating 4-2 win last September (one run allowed in 6 2/3 innings). In two games at Citi Field, he’s allowed eight runs and 21 hits in 10 innings (7.20 ERA), getting a no-decision in one game (Philly won 5-4) and losing 4-2 in the other.
Pelfrey is coming off consecutive wins over the Braves (two runs allowed in 7 2/3 innings of a 3-2 road victory) and Yankees (one run allowed in six innings of a 5-3 home triumph). Including a one-inning relief stint in a 20-inning game at St. Louis on April 17, the Mets are 8-2 with Pelfrey on the hill this season, and the right-hander has given up two earned runs or fewer in six of his nine starts.
Pelfrey is 4-0 with a 2.43 ERA in six home starts this season and 4-3 with a 5.43 ERA in 10 starts against Philadelphia. In his last two versus the Phillies – both in Philadelphia – Pelfrey surrendered a combined 14 runs (all earned) on 18 hits (four home runs) in 10 innings, with the Mets winning 10-9 (last September) and losing 10-0 (on May 1 of this season). In fact, his worst start of this season came in that May 1 contest (six runs allowed in four innings).
The Phillies are on a 5-1-1 “under” streak, and they’ve stayed under the total in Hamels’ last four starts overall after topping the total in four of his first five outings. Also, the under cashed in Hamels’ last two outings against the Mets after six of his first seven versus New York topped the total.
The Mets have stayed low in six of their last nine games overall, but the over is 4-1 in Pelfrey’s last five starts overall (3-0 at home) and 4-1 in his last five starts against Philadelphia.
Finally, the under is 12-4 in the last 16 Mets-Phillies battles, including 6-1 in the last seven at Citi Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (28-18) at Minnesota (26-20)
The Yankees look to complete a three-game sweep of the Twins at new Target Field, where Javier Vazquez (3-4, 6.69) is set to pitch for the visitors opposite Nick Blackburn (5-1, 4.50).
Monday’s opener of this series was suspended after five innings because of rain, and when the game resumed Tuesday, Derek Jeter hit a home run in the sixth and that was all New York needed as it held on for a 1-0 victory. The Yankees then got a solo homer from Nick Swisher in the ninth inning to break a 2-2 tie and prevail 3-2.
Despite taking two on Wednesday, the Yankees are still just 7-10 in their last 17 games (4-6 on the road), which comes on the heels of a six-game winning streak. Still, the defending champs are on several positive runs, including 104-49 overall and 41-15 against the A.L. Central.
The Twins are just 5-9 in their last 14 games – including losing four of five to the Yankees – but they’re still 14-9 through 23 games at Target Field. Going back to their days in the Metrodome, the Twins have won 24 of 35 home games. On the flip side, they’ve lost 49 of 71 to A.L. East opponents.
Not only have the Twins lost four of five to New York this season, but they’re 17-54 in the last 71 meetings (playoffs included). The Yankees have won six straight in Minnesota, including a victory in the deciding Game 3 of last year’s best-of-5 divisional playoff series at the Metrodome.
Vazquez started out his second tour of duty with New York by going 1-3 with a 9.78 ERA in his first five starts this season, but he’s been much better in his last two starts, allowing just two runs on six hits in 13 innings. On Friday, he picked up a 2-1 victory at the Mets, scattering a hit and two walks over six innings, striking out seven. That victory came four days after Vazquez pitched one-third of an inning in relief against the Red Sox, and he was credited with a victory when New York scored four times in the bottom of the ninth inning to turn a 9-7 deficit into an 11-9 home win.
With the victory at the Mets on Friday, Vazquez improved to 2-3 with a 5.86 ERA in his five road starts this season. Also, he’s made six career starts against Minnesota, going 6-6 with a 5.11 ERA. Going back to 2007, the Twins are 1-5 the last six times they’ve faced the veteran right-hander.
The Twins are 6-0 in Blackburn’s last six starts, with the right-hander delivering a quality outing in each of the last four (nine total runs allowed in 30 1/3 innings for a 2.67 ERA). Most recently, he matched up against the Brewers on Friday at home and was staked to a 7-0 first-inning lead and cruised to the 15-3 victory, surrendering all three runs in 7 1/3 innings.
Blackburn is 3-0 with a 3.49 ERA in four starts at Target Field, with Minnesota winning all four while scoring 31 runs. He also pitched the Twins to a 6-3 win at Yankee Stadium on May 16, giving up three runs on nine hits in seven innings. He’s now 1-1 with a 4.65 ERA in six career starts against New York, including a no-decision in his team’s 4-3, 11-inning loss in the Bronx in last year’s playoffs.
New York has topped the total in six of nine overall, but otherwise the Yanks are on “under” streaks of 7-2 on the road and 8-1 against the A.L. Central. Also, New York has stayed low in Vazquez’s last two starts following a 4-1 “over” surge. However, the over is 6-0-1 in Vazquez’s last seven starts against the Twins.
Minnesota is on “under” tears of 10-3 at home, 25-7-3 against the A.L. East and 25-7-2 following a loss. Also, the under is 3-1 in Blackburn’s last four trips to the mound, and his last two starts against New York fell short of the posted total.
Lastly, the under has cashed in seven of the last eight Twins-Yankees battles, including the last four in a row.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
DUNKEL
Phoenix at LA Lakers
The Lakers look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games when tied in a playoff series. LA is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-7 1/2)
Game 519-520: Phoenix at LA Lakers (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 120.837; LA Lakers 129.444
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 8 1/2; 224
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 7 1/2; 217 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-7 1/2); Over
MLB
Houston at Milwaukee
The Astros look to take advantage of a Milwaukee team that is 0-3 in its 3 games this season as a home favorite from -125 to -150. Houston is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Astros favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Houston (+115)
Game 901-902: Houston at Milwaukee (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Myers) 14.490; Milwaukee (Bush) 13.867
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+115); Over
Game 903-904: LA Dodgers at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Ely) 16.050; Cubs (Lilly) 15.496
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-125); No Total
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+105); N/A
Game 905-906: Arizona at Colorado (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Haren) 15.500; Colorado (Hammel) 15.258
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Arizona (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-120); Over
Game 907-908: Washington at San Francisco (3:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Stammen) 13.566; San Francisco (Zito) 14.354
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-175); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-175); Over
Game 909-910: St. Louis at San Diego (6:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Walters) 15.012; San Diego (Leblanc) 16.706
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-135); Under
Game 911-912: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 14.223; Cincinnati (Cueto) 16.369
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-200); Under
Game 913-914: Atlanta at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 15.098; Florida (Nolasco) 16.014
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-110); Under
Game 915-916: Philadelphia at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.152; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 15.232
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+110); Under
Game 917-918: Oakland at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gonzalez) 14.149; Baltimore (Bergesen) 14.818
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+100); Over
Game 919-920: Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 15.035; Tampa Bay (Niemann) 16.564
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-175); Over
Game 921-922: Kansas City at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Bannister) 16.315; Boston (Matsuzaka) 16.971
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Boston (-180); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-180); Over
Game 923-924: NY Yankees at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Vazquez) 14.151; Minnesota (Blackburn) 15.842
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+105); Under
WNBA
Seattle at Chicago
The Sky look to take advantage of a Seattle team that is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 road games. Chicago is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sky favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+4 1/2)
Game 601-602: Minnesota at Connecticut (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 104.721; Connecticut 113.312
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 8 1/2; 167
Vegas Line & Total: Connecticut by 7; 161
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-7); Over
Game 603-604: Seattle at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 110.686; Chicago 112.695
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 2; 152
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 4 1/2; 146
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+4 1/2); Over
Cajun Sports
Pirates vs. Reds
Play: Over 8.5
The Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds play the final game of their four-game series in the Queen City on Thursday evening. The Pirates have trended to the over when playing on the road this season with a record of 13-10 to the high side. This is due in large part to their inability to stop the other team from scoring; they are allowing 6.3 runs per game with a .293 batting average and allowing an OBP of .362. Pittsburgh will send Charlie Morton to the bump with his 8.71 ERA on the season and 11.29 ERA when he takes the bump on the highway. The Pirates are 60-37 Over in road games in the first half of the season and 72-53 Over in road games against right-handed starters the last 3 seasons. Cincinnati has seen the total trend over when playing in the Queen City with a record of 12-9 Over. The Reds are also 18-9 Over when facing right-handed starters and 5-2 Over their last seven games overall. Cincinnati will send Johnny Cueto to the hill with his 3.96 ERA when he takes the mound at home. Even though he has a decent ERA, he has seen his starts go over the posted total at home this season. Cueto has a career total mark of 8-2 Over versus the Pirates and eleven of the last nineteen games in this series played in the Queen City have flown over the total. The Reds are 36-17 Over in home games with an on base percentage of .360 or better and 106-72 Over as a home favorite of -150 or more since 1997. Our TPR Index and Math Model project this contest to play over the posted total with that and strong technical support we will recommend a play on the over in tonight’s final game of this series.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Pittsburgh-Cincinnati OVER 8.5
Craig Trapp
Kansas City Royals vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox -1.5
Only a monumental let down by the Red Sox would give KC any chance tonight. But with over a 5 game deficit of first place Rays, don't expect one. Matsuzaka is coming off a near no hitter against one of best lineups in PHI! Even better Bannister goes for KC and he is 0-3 lifetime at Fenway. KC is 6-20 since 2003 at Fenway! KC is 1-2 head to head with BOS on the year both losses covered the R/L as well. BOS is on a tear at the plate as they have finally started playing up to potential. Expect another gem from Matsuzaka and the bats will stay hot and cover the R/L as Red Sox settle back in at home after long succesful road trip!
MATT FARGO
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs
PICK: Los Angeles Dodgers
We won with the Dodgers in this spot yesterday and we will go right back with them this afternoon. They dropped the opener of this series Tuesday as Ryan Dempster completely shut down the offense by tossing eight innings of shutout ball and ruining another solid performance from Clayton Kershaw. Last night Los Angeles held on for a three-run victory behind 5.1 solid innings from Chad Billingsley. The Dodgers were able to get to Tom Gorzelanny early and the advantage for them here is that they get to face another lefty today. The victory last night snapped a short two-game skid and after a slow start to the season, the Dodgers are 15-4 over their last 19 games so it is safe to say they are playing excellent baseball. The Cubs did manage five runs last night but they have scored more than five runs only once over their last 10 games and over the past 21 contests, they are averaging a mere 3.9 rpg. Los Angeles sends John Ely to the bump and after a rough debut where he allowed five runs, he has tossed four straight quality starts, allowing no more than two runs in any of those games while posting a solid 2.45 ERA over that span. This is his first ever start against the Cubs which is a huge advantage on his part. He goes up against Ted Lilly who has rebounded well from a tough start to the year after a stint on the disabled list to open the season. He has thrown three straight quality performances but the Cubs offense has not helped him as he has picked up no wins during this stretch as his run support has been only 2.3 rpg. He has made only two daytime starts and the results have not been good as he has posted a 6.75 ERA and 1.50 WHIP covering 12 innings. The Cubs are just 12-26 dating back to last season against teams with a winning percentage between .540 and .620. 3* Los Angeles Dodgers
DAVID CHAN
Pirates @ Reds
PICK: Reds -1.5
Take the Reds, laying 1.5 runs, and Johnny Cueto against the Pirates and Charlie Morton.
We’ve been going against the Pirates at every opportunity when Morton pitches it seems; the Bucs are 1-8 in his starts this year. Here we go again. Morton is hittable and would be in the high minors in almost any other organization.
These pitchers squared off in Pittsburgh on May 11. The Reds won 9-0 behind a complete game, 8 K performance from Cueto. Morton actually wasn’t horrible (6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H 4 K, 2 BB) but in four career starts against the Reds dating back to last August, he hasn’t been very good at getting them out. In 27.1 IP, he’s surrendered 28 hits while walking 11, and only recording 11 K. He’s a known quantity to Cincinnati, and the Reds don’t mind what they see.
Let’s get a little greedy and lay the extra run. Headed into Wednesday, the Reds are a useful 15-10 at home while the Bucs are 9-14 away from the Steel City. The cautious can lay the juice and just play the win.
Steve Merril
Yankees @ Twins
PICK: Twins -1.5
Minnesota will look to salvage the final game of this series with the Yankees who have taken the first two games. The Twins will see a familiar foe in Javier Vazquez who gets the start for New York. Vazquez is 2-4 with a 6.75 ERA in seven starts for the Yankees this season. The righty has faced the Twins 17 times in his career going 6-6 in those games. In 2008, he faced them three times giving up 12 runs and 23 hits in 16.3 innings pitched. Justin Morneau (14-40), Michael Cuddyer (12-35), Joe Mauer (9-30), Jim Thome (6-22), Orlando Hudson (5-18), Delmon Young (7-16), and J.J. Hardy (3-10) all have good numbers against Vazquez. The Twins are 14-9 at home and they’ve played in four straight one run games against the Yankees and Brewers.
The Twins will send Nick Blackburn to the mound tonight. He is cruising right now as he’s 3-0 with a 2.53 ERA in his last three starts including a win over the Yankees in New York. In that game, he gave up three runs and nine hits in seven innings of work. A-Rod (3-12), Nick Swisher (3-12), Robinson Cano (0-11), Marcus Thames (1-9), Brett Gardner (2-8), and Francisco Cervelli (0-2) all have poor numbers against Blackburn. New York's offense is struggling a bit right now scoring just 13 runs over their last five games on the road. Minnesota owns the pitching edge with Blackburn over Vazquez, and since the Yankees aren’t scoring a lot of runs lately, we recommend taking the Twins on the run line in this game tonight.
Jim Feist
Royals vs. Red Sox
Play: Under 10
Kansas City has a weak offense, ranked 9th in the AL in runs scored. They swing at a lot of pitches outside the strike zone, which is bad against Boston starter Dice-K Matsuzaka, who is the king of trying to paint the corners and avoid contact. He also comes off a gem, a 1-hitter. KC starter Brian Bannister is not bad, allowing 2, 3 and 4 runs his last three starts. Bannister allowed just two runs in 7.1 innings against the Rockies on Friday to earn his third win of the season. Boston's hot streak coincided with the starting pitching stepping up, going 6-1 under the total during their nice win streak. Look for a pitcher's duel, play the Royals/Red Sox Under the total.
EZWINNERS
Boston Red Sox -182
The Red Sox starting pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka looks like he is getting back to form. Dice-K took a no-hitter into the eighth inning on Saturday night against the powerful Philadelphia lineup but had it broken up by a soft liner to left field by Phillies shortstop Juan Castro. Matsuzaka is now 2-0 with an ERA of 3.66 in his last three starts and he has great success against the Royals posting a career record 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA in two career starts against Kansas City. The Royals starting pitcher Brian Bannister has been so so this season posting a 3-3 record with an ERA of 4.73, but he has not had any luck against Boston in his career. In four career starts against the Red Sox, Bannister is 0-4 with an ERA of 5.87 and he will be facing a Red Sox team that is one of the hottest teams in major league baseball right now. Play on Boston.
Gill Alexander
LOS (+110) vs CHC
Ely has 4 consecutive quality starts, including a 6IP, 2ER, 8H performance v a potent Tigers offense last time on the mound. He has a 2.45ERA over that stretch. He had an 89 batter streak in which he did not issue a walk snapped in that ballgame, but for the season still has a remarkable 28-4 SO-BB ratio. There is some solid sabermetric backup on what meets the eye, as Ely boasts a 1.81FIP figure, a mark that would be the single best in MLB if Ely had enough appearances to qualify. His .321 BABIP indicates he hasn't been lucky in that achievement, and if anything, hasn't had the ball figuratively bounce his way when in play. Lilly is coming off 3 consecutive quality starts himself, including his most recent 6.2IP, 2ER, 6H performance v Tex. Despite that, he has a 5.12ERA over his last 5 outings. He has been solid v LAD w a lifetime 3.16ERA in 5 starts. But Lilly's FIP of 4.52 coupled w his .267 BABIP in 2010 paints an opposite story from that of Ely headed into this ballgame. Finally, Ely is a Chicago kid who is coming home to pitch in front of family and friends. That's always a favorite fade scenario for bettors who believe that to be a perfect recipe for an athlete getting tight and not performing up to par. But, nothing in Ely's demeanor to this point would indicate a chink in his mental makeup and as a guy who deosn't rely on any heat whatsoever (his velocity maxes out in the high 80s), there's certainly no chronic overthrowing potential for him in this spot. I like the Dodgers as a dog.
JR O'Donnell
KAN (+162) vs BOS
Let's break this baby down: The Kc. Royals @ Fenway tonight vs. the vaunted 27-21 Red Sox + 162 gets the call. No one but JR O will step up and swing for the fences with the 19-28 quietly dangerous KC Royals. The Royals do lead the Bigs with a .280 BA. Looking @ the Red Sox hurler Dice K. we feel that he will return back into old form tonight as he is (3-1, 5.76 ERA) and prior to last outing he has been shelled for 5+ runs the last 3 games. We feel that he will bounce tonight after that gem vs the Phillies. The Royals here tonight are a huge gut play based on feel and a winning MLB touch. B. Bannister will silence the Red Sox and we will play the Royals Ugly tonight.
Rocketman Sports
Atlanta Braves vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Atlanta Braves
Atlanta bullpen has a 3.62 ERA on the road this year. Tim Hudson is 5-1 with a 2.09 ERA overall this year, 3-0 with a 2.27 ERA on the road this season and 3-0 with a 0.82 ERA his last 3 starts. Ricky Nolasco is 1-2 with a 6.14 ERA at home this year. Hudson is 8-2 with a 2.92 ERA overall vs Florida since 1997. My Rocketman line for this game is Atlanta -156 giving us good value on the Braves at even money. We'll recommend a small play on Atlanta tonight!
SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. LAKERS –7½ over Phoenix
Yes, the Suns have momentum indeed after two very impressive wins on its home court. However, they’re a different team in L.A., as all playoff teams seem to be and they just do not have the same confidence when they step on this floor. It’s almost as if they know they’re going to lose. Besides that, the Lakers have played awful in two games in Phoenix and now it’s time to step it up. You also cannot ignore the calls that will absolutely go the Lakers way in this game. The NBA needs the Lakers to go to the finals because a Lakers/Celtics final will draw about 30 times more viewers than the Suns/Celtics and an unimaginable Suns/Magic final would be a complete disaster for the league. What we do know is that the Lakers will have a game plan to counter the Suns effective zone defense in this pivotal game five. Don’t expect Phil Jackson to be knitting in his chair like he usually does, as this is now the most crucial game of the year for the Lakers. Expect the Lakers to ferociously attack the basket and with such a big edge in size, you can expect the Lakers to rebound strong as well. The Lakers have to win this game and the NBA will have it no other way. Play: L.A. Lakers –7½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Washington +1.60 over SAN FRANCISCO
Note the 3:35 PM EST start. A big day at the plate for the Giants is scoring three times. A big day on the mound for Barry Zito is when he walks less than five and gives up less than five. Now the reeling Giants with no offense and a very ordinary pitcher are a –1.70 chalk? Are you kidding? First, the Giants have dropped six of seven and over that stretch they’ve scored 16 times. Throw out a game against the A’s in which they scored seven times and the Giants would have nine runs in six games. Over its last five games the Giants are batting .192 with an OBP of .250. Zito got off to a great start but he was lucky with an unsustainable high strand rate. In his last three starts he’s allowed 12 earned runs in 18.1 IP and the opposition was San Diego, Houston and Oakland. There might not be a worse hitting group than that aforementioned trio. Zito’s fastball tops off at 85MPH and his other three pitches are just as ordinary. This guy has zero appeal laying ridiculous juice. Craig Stammen isn’t much better but he’s not laying –1.70 and the Nats offense puts the Giants offense to shame. The Nats torched Tim Linecum yesterday and that feat alone instills more confidence. The Nats remain the most undervalued team in the league and win or lose here, we’re going with the best of it by a wide, wide margin. Big overlay. Play: Washington +1.60 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +1.22 over MILWAUKEE
Note the 1:10 PM EST start. With all due respect to the Astros, the Brewers might be the most pathetic team in the league. At least the Astros have some pitching and just like they do every year, they’ll very likely go on a sizzling run for about six weeks before fading away again. Anyway, if pitching has anything to do with the outcome of this game than the Astros have a huge edge in both the starting pitchers and the bullpen. Dave Bush (-23 BPV, 3-3-2-2-0 PQS) has walked 24 batters and struck out 24. That’s a problem. Bush has a WHIP of 1.76 and that, too, is a problem. He’s made nine starts this season and the Brewers are 1-8 in those starts. Bush had an ERA last year of 6.38. In two minor league starts last season his ERA was 9.95. This season his ERA at home is 6.75 and his BAA is .341 and his ERA in May is 7.27 with a BAA of .347. There’s nothing mysterious about Bush. He’s a horrible pitcher on a horrible team and while the Astros don’t have much appeal, the Brewers have way less with Bush on the hill laying a price. Brett Myers has great stuff and he’s looking better with each outing. He’s 2-1 over his last three starts with a 2.57 ERA and that includes a seven-inning, zero earned runs gem over the Rays. Incidentally, Myers is 4-1 with a 1.77 ERA in his career against the Brewers. Play: Houston +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles +1.22 over CHICAGO
Note the 2:20 PM EST start. John Ely (132 BPV, 4-5-5-5-3 PQS) threw his first non-PQS-Dominant game of his career but still won the game against the Tigers, recording three Ks and one walk. That walk was out of character, as Ely went three straight games without issuing a walk and he now has just four walks in 31.2 IP. Ely has struck out 28 batters and has not allowed a single jack all year. In addition, the Cubbies have never seen this guy and that works in the Dodgers favor. The kid can pitch and should be extra amped up today pitching at historic Wrigley Field. Meanwhile, Ted Lilly (40 BPV, 2-3-4-3-3 PQS) has lost his propensity for Ks in May with just 11 in 26.2 IP. While other metrics such as control and HR’s per 9 innings are on a decent pace, the loss of Ks is concerning and suggests the arthroscopic shoulder surgery recovery may be a work in progress. The Cubbies have won just two of Lilly’s six starts. So, what we get here is a pitcher that throws nothing but strikes and has great stuff with a tag facing about as ordinary a squad as there is. Play: Los Angeles +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
Brett Atkins
Made it four straight free winners on Wednesday when the Roy Oswalt and the Astros did exactly as I said when he threw a gem and shut out the Brewers. Tonight I have a comp winner coming on the Phillies as they take on the Mets in New York.
The Mets have recorded back-to-back shutouts of the Phillies in this series, but there is no way they can do it three times in a row. In fact, you can probably expect Philadelphia lefty Cole Hamels (5-2, 3.92 ERA) to come close to the shutout with the way he’s pitched lately.
Hamels if looking for his fourth straight victory and the Phils have won five straight games with him on the hill. He’s got a 2.89 ERA in his last three outings and on Friday he held the Red Sox to one run on three hits in seven innings of a 5-1 victory.
On the hill for the Mets is Michael Pelfrey who has not enjoyed facing the Phillies’ lineup, allowing 14 runs on 18 hits in his last two outings, including a 10-0 loss back on May 1.
Philadelphia is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings with the Mets and they’ll get a great effort from Hamels and win this one. Go with the Phillies in this one.
4♦ PHILADELPHIA
Bobby Maxwell
Scored another FREE winner on Wednesday with the Red Sox getting the plus-money victory in Tampa over the Rays. It improved my comp record to 102-80-3. Tonight I have a freebie on the board with the Phillies getting the best of the Mets in New York.
The Mets have beaten the Phillies twice in a row now and shut them out in both games. Do you think it’s going to happen again? Not a chance. Philadelphia has dropped four straight games but tonight they will get back on the winning track with red-hot lefty Cole Hamels (5-2, 3.92 ERA) on the hill in New York.
Hamels is shooting for his fourth straight victory and had the last victory for his team on Friday when he held the Red Sox to one run on three hits over seven innings in a 5-1 win. The Phillies have won his last five starts and he’s got a 2.89 ERA in his last three starts.
Michael Pelfrey (6-1, 2.86 ERA) goes for the Mets and he’s 4-0 with a 2.43 ERA at home. He limited the Yankees to one run on six hits in six innings of a 5-3 win on Saturday. He has not been good at all against the Phillies, giving up 14 runs on 18 hits in his last two outings, including a 10-0 loss back on May 1.
Philadelphia has won 13 of the last 18 games against the Mets and five of the last eight in Big Apple. Hamels will come out and give them the solid effort to get back on the winning track.
I’ll go ahead and pay the price to go with Hamels and the Phillies in this one!
5♦ PHILADELPHIA