Stephen Nover
It was another good day on Wednesday as I went 2-0, easily winning a 40-dime play on the Orlando Magic and also cashing my complimentary selection of the Mets to beat the Phillies.
I am now on a 13-4 run with my free baseball selections.
Today I'm going with the Cincinnati Reds on the run line against the Pittsburgh Pirates. I see Cincinnati winning by at least two runs with a pitching matchup of Charlie Morton versus a hot Johnny Cueto, who has a strong history versus Pittsburgh.
Morton is the worst regular starting pitcher in the National League. He's 1-8 with an 8.71 ERA. The Pirates have lost by at least four runs in seven of his eight defeats.
The Pirates have no confidence in Morton, who has the highest ERA of any pitcher in the majors with at least five starts. Pittsburgh has been outscored 25-4 during Morton's last four starts. Morton figures to have problems pitching at Great American Ball Park, a real hitter's park.
Morton and Cueto hooked up on May 11 in Pittsburgh and the Reds won, 9-0. Cueto held the Pirates to two baserunners and one hit in going the distance.
Cueto is holding hitters to a .190 average this month. His pattern is to start the year strong. He's 8-4 with a 3.23 ERA in 15 career May starts. He's also 6-2 with a 3.88 ERA in nine lifetime starts versus the Pirates.
"Every day, I feel stronger," Cueto was quoted as saying on the Reds' website. "My arm feels good. My legs feel good. I'm throwing the way I was throwing the first year -- 94, 95, 96 mph."
2♦ REDS -1.5
Karl Garrett
The G-Man is well aware that all 4 series meetings between the Suns and Lakers have gone over the posted total, and that 7 of the last 10 overall played between the teams have also eclipsed the posted total, but my gut feeling is telling me that Thursday's critical 5th game is going to feature some tougher contested possessions, and will also feature some misfires from behind the arc.
That feeling is strong enough for the G-Man to come with my Thursday comp play winner on the under between the Suns and Lakers.
There really isn't a set of statistics I can throw at you to support this play other than to say after closely watching these 4 games, I have to believe that the points have got to come to a little bit of a halt, and we will finally see an under in this series.
I know I am going against the grain with this comp play, and I don't expect the scoring to come to a screeching halt, but at the end of the day, this Game 5 falls just shy of the over.
4♦ UNDER
Tom Freese
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins
Minnesota starter Nick Blackburn has allowed 9 runs total in his 4 starts and the Twins are 7-1 in his 8 starts this year. The Twins are 9-0 at home when the money line is -100 to -150. The Twins are 30-16 against the money line after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. New York starter Javier Vazquez is 2-5 in his 7 starts this year. The Yankees won a doubleheader vs. the Twins yesterday. Look for Vazquez to get lit up tonight.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
Play: New York Mets
We’ll back the Mets at home going for the sweep over Philadelphia tonight. New York is coming off back-to-back shutout, dominant wins over the Phillies after winning 8-0 on Friday night and then 5-0 yesterday. And tonight they send Mike Pelfrey to the hill, who has been dominant here at home with a 4-0 record (4-1 TSR) and a very nice 2.43 ERA. Philly’s bats are ice cold, and have scored just three runs in their last four games overall. Mets get the sweep!
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Atlanta Braves +101
Hudson and the Braves get the call as my free play tonight. Hudson is in the zone. He is 5-1 with a 2.09 ERA this season and 3-0 with a 2.27 ERA on the road. And he's been even better lately. Hudson is 3-0 with an ERA of just 0.82 over his last 3 starts with the Braves winning those games by scores of 7-0, 13-1 and 11-3. Also, Hudson has owned the Marlins in his career, going 8-2 (11-4 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.92. Nolasco is talented pitcher, but he has not had it going early on, especially at home where he is 1-2 (1-3 on the money line) with an ERA of 6.14. He's just 3-4 (4-7 on the money line) with an ERA of 4.57 in his career against the Braves. We'll bet the Braves with the edge on the hill tonight.
Matt Rivers
Brian Bannister can be pretty solid at times but the righty also can implode with the best of them and I do think here at Fenway we are going to see the latter side show up.
The Red Sox are starting to play a whole heck of a lot better as Bigi Papi is now finally bashing away to help out Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia. Terry Francona's club has certainly dug themselves a nice little hole allowing both the Rays and Yankees to get some distance ahead but right now Boston is starting to show their quality true colors and things are beginning to get a lot brighter for them and I can see that continuing and making things a bit miserable for Bannister today.
The Royals are the Royals. I don't necessarily mind Kansas City in the right big dog circumstance as Billy Butler and a few others have potential but I don't think this is the right spot for this pup to bark under. Boston just demolished the Rays in that sweep at the Trop and when this team is going well they pummel inferior clubs and I see that being the case today.
I'm not saying that I can fully trust Dice-K because once you do then you are in for a rude awakening but the Japanese righty was sensational in that last start and should at least feel confident enough and finally part of the Red Sox nation once again after a frustrating last season and a half.
I just don't see how KC can keep pace today as the Sox are starting to roll and that should equal a 7-3 type of a victory today!
Pick: Boston -1.5
Nelly
Kansas City at Boston Under
The Red Sox are rolling with wins in eight of the last night games and now with the schedule softening it may be time for Boston to make a major move in the standings. The Red Sox are back at home after six tough road games so this could be a bit of a flat spot with the Royals in town coming off a sweep of the Rays. Boston is only hitting .269 in home games this season and the projected lineup for Thursday's game is a far cry for the ideal batting order for Boston. Jacoby Ellsbury and Victor Martinez are both doubtful tonight and J.D. Drew and Victor Martinez could both also be rested. The Royals are also possibly without a few key bats as Rick Ankiel is on the DL and David DeJesus and Yuniesky Betancourt could also miss this game. Kansas City is hitting .280 for the year but the run production has not matched that average. The Royals are scoring just 4.3 runs per game and scoring could be tough against Daisuke Matsuzaka. After missing April on the DL Matsuzaka has had mixed results but two of his last three starts have been dominant, including his last home effort. Opposing Dice-K will be Brian Bannister who has been a reliable arm for the Royals. Bannister has allowed three or fewer runs in six of his nine starts and his overall road numbers are skewed based on one bad early season outing. Both teams have worse than average bullpen ERA statistics for the year but in the last ten games the relief pitching has been excellent. Fenway Park has a high-scoring reputation but the scoring has been down a bit in recent weeks and this is an inflated total for a game with two solid pitchers.
Vernon Croy
1* Atlanta Braves
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and we are getting very good value with the Braves tonight who have Tim Hudson (5-1, 2.09 ERA) on the mound. Hudson has pitched solid this season with an ERA of just 2.27 on the road this season and an ERA of just 0.82 over his last 3 starts. Hudson has lasted an average of 7.3 innings per game over his last 3 starts and he has only allowed 3 hits per game over his last 2 starts. Hudson has also pitched great against the Marlins during his career with an ERA of just 2.92 over 15 career starts. Ricky Nolasco (4-3, 4.50) takes the mound for the Marlins and he has struggled at home this season with an ERA of 6.14 while giving up 6 homeruns over just 4 home starts.
Mr. Vegas
Suns/Lakers
This has been an over series all the way, a pair of uptempo teams with loads of scoring options. Phoenix was No. 1 in the NBA in scoring and tops in three point shooting. Their defense, though, hasn’t been able to contain the Lakers, especially on this court, scoring over 120 points in both games 1 and 2. The Lakers are on a 12-3-1 run over the total. Play the Suns/Lakers Game 5 Over the total.
Nite Owl Sports
Suns @ Lakers
Pick: Over 218
The Los Angeles Lakers looked to be in total control of the series taking a commanding 2-0 lead in LA, with Phoenix showing to be very little threat in either game. The venue changed, and along with it the momentum in this series as Phoenix took advantage of their home court to knot the series at two games apiece. We were on the Suns in both of their victories and I'm on them again tonight. Their back-to-back wins should give the Suns confidence playing in Los Angeles. The history of the conference finals have proven to bear that out. Teams that faced a 2-0 deficit and then won games three and four, now heading back on the road for a game five have historically been good bets. These teams have cashed in to a 15-6-1 ATS mark since 1991. The Lakers are a very good home team, but this is just too many points. The Suns are 19-5 ATS this season vs. teams at .600 or better and I think they fight tonight with confidence and keep it close.
We have made two totals picks so far in this series, in games 3 and 4 in Phx, going with the under both times for what we considered good line value against an inflated totals line. We went 1-1 on those two, losing what looked like a sure under in game 3 due to hot shooting by both teams and excessive fouling by Lakers in final two minutes of the game, resulting in 25 points being scored in those final two minutes and the game going over, and then prevailing in game 4 by jumping on the under early when it was 221.5, and holding on with our finger nails for a half point win – so as they say, the breaks “even out” over time, even though it seems that they really don’t, because those gut-wrenching unlucky losses “linger” more for bettors (just like for the NBA players, coaches and fans) than do the close, lucky victories.
Anyway, back to the #s and reasoning behind our pick on the OVER in this game. These two teams have gone 3-1 to the OVER vs the closing line in the four games of this series (counting game 4 as as over, vs the closing line of 220 for that game) and 4-0 vs the totals line in this game (218), but more significantly, for an average of 230 total ppg, including 235 and 236 total points in games one and two in LA. Moreover, the scoring has been consistently high throughout the four games, with with 7 of the 16 quarters played featuring 60> points (including a 73 point 2Q last game in Phx with a whopping 41 points by Suns), and just two of the 16 quarters having less than 50 total points scored. So these two offensively potent teams will score their points, and they have made up for their two scoring droughts (a 46 point 1Q in game 4 and a 40 point 2Q in game 3) with enough scoring “flurries” to catch up with and surpass the full game totals line all four times. So not really knowing when these rare scoring droughts will occur or when the more frequent flurries of scoring will happen, and with excessive late game fouling always a possibility unless one believes this game will be another home blowout victory for Lakers (which we don’t), the most logical way to play the OVER is on the full game line. So why have the line makers dropped the totals line for this game (from 220 in game 4 to 218 here), after not only four straight overs but two easy overs in games one and two in LA? Frankly, we don’t really know (because there are no significant injuries to either team) or care.
And to get a better feel for whether we are getting decent line value with the full game OVER at 218, we looked at the full game totals results in a set of recent “representative games” for both teams, all in TY’s playoffs – for Lakers, games one and two of this series, as well as their two HGs vs Jazz in round two (but we did not include their first round home games vs Okie, which were played at a much slower pace than the Lakers’ playoff games TY vs Jazz and Suns). And for Suns, we also looked at games one and two of this series, as well as games 3 and 4 in SA (but we did not include Suns’ round one games in Portland, which like LA-Okie round one games, were played at a much slower pace than their games vs Lakers and Spurs). And in those games, Lakers were 4-0 to the OVER with an average of 222 total ppg in their four, while Suns were 3-0-1 to the OVER with an average of 221 total ppg in their four. Combining and averaging those results, and counting games one and two of this series for each team due to their added relevance, we get a nice 7-0-1 edge for the OVER, and a projected 221.5 points being scored tonite. Based on that and the added support for the OVER as detailed above, plus the fact that the two games of this series in LA easily went over (with 235 and 236 totals points scored), primarily because Lakers score better at home than on the road, and they seem to get a lot more trips to the FT line in the playoffs when they are at home, we’ll go with the OVER 218 points for 3 units.
Hollywood Sports
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
Prediction: New York Mets
Take the money line with the New York Mets over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Philly offense is struggling as they have been shut out in three of their last four games. Now they face Mike Pelfrey who has been dominant this season with his 6-1 record that is supported by a super 2.86 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Pelfrey has thrived at home in Citi Field where he is 4-0 with a 2.43 ERA while holding hitters to just a .237 batting average. Last season, Pelfrey was also much more effective at home as he produced a 3.72 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of .271 which all compare very favorably to his 6.73 ERA, 1.73 WHIP and .310 opponent's batting average. He faces off against the Phillies' Cole Hamels who is 5-2 with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. But Hamels is struggling on the road this season as he has a 5.32 ERA, 1.69 WHIP while allowing batters to hit .295 against him. Unfortunately for the former Cy Young winner, these numbers are consistent with his road numbers of last season where Hamels had a 4.99 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of .308. Hamels struggled against the Mets last year as he had a 4.86 ERA, 1.86 WHIP and an ugly .385 opponent's batting average last season. As a small underdog, the Mets are a good proposition tonight. Take the Mets with the money line while listing both pitchers.
Jack Jones
Los Angeles Lakers -7
After a rough showing in Phoenix, I fully expect the Lakers to bounce back in a big way in Game 5. This team has always been at their best when the games matter the most, and now realize they need to put the pedal to the metal to grab a stranglehold on this series. The Lakers are 18-5 ATS when tied in a playoff series since 1996. When the Thunder came back to tie their opening round series with L.A. at 2-2, the Lakers went on to win Game 5 in blowout fashion at home by a final of 111-87 as 6-point favorites. I look for another double-digit blowout in this Game 5 with Phoenix.
This play also falls under a system that is 39-13 (75%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent against opponent off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. The Lakers will play much better defensively tonight and it should lead to a win and cover for the home team. Take the Lakers in Game 5.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Atlanta Braves -103
The Braves are being undervalued with Hanson on the hill tonight when you consider how dominant he's been of late. He's perfect on the road this season (3-0, 2.27 ERA) and he's a perfect 3-0 over his last 3 starts with an ERA of 0.82. And it is certainly worth noting that the Braves have won those three starts by a combined score of 31-4. The Braves are 10-4 in Hudson's last 14 starts vs. the Marlins, including 6-2 in his last 8 road starts in this series. I'm backing Hudson and the Braves here.
Black Widow
1* on Kansas City Royals +190
This is the ideal letdown spot for the Boston Red Sox. Boston has been riding an emotional high, going 8-1 in their last 9 games against the likes of the Yankees, Twins, Phillies and Rays. After facing those four great teams, it will be very hard for Boston to get motivated to play the Royals tonight. Meanwhile, Kansas City will have no problem getting up for this game at Fenway Park. Royals' starter Brian Bannister has been steady this season, and he's 2-1 with a 4.19 ERA in his last 3 starts. His 4.73 ERA for the season in 9 starts is better than Daisuke Matsuzaka's 5.76 ERA this season in 5 starts for the Red Sox. Bannister pitched a gem in his lone start against the Red Sox last season, allowing just 1 earned run, 3 hits and 4 walks in 7.2 innings while striking out 7. In his last start vs. Kansas City, Matsuzaka gave up 3 earned runs, 6 hits and 6 walks in 5.2 innings. Boston is 17-28 (-21.4 Units) against the money line in home games off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog since 1997. The Royals are 4-1 in their last 5 during Game 1 of a series, so they have been getting off to fast starts recently. Kansas City is now 5-2 in their last 7 games as an underdog. The value in this game is too good to pass up. Take the Royals on the Money Line.
Info Plays
3* on Florida Marlins -104
Reasons the Marlins win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Any team (ATLANTA) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.250) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season-NL. This is an 84-49 MLB System hitting 63.2% and gaining +56.7 units since 1997.
2.) Marlins' starter Ricky Nolasco is 10-0 against the money line vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. The Marlins are winning in these spots 4.3 to 2.4 for an average of 1.9 RPG. Atlanta is just 2-9 against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. Bet the Marlins at home.