Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Oakland A's -130
The A's bounced back from a Game 1 loss to win the second game of this series last night, and I expect them to take the series with another win tonight behind Gonzalez. Gonzalez is 5-3 on the season with a 3.46 ERA and he is coming off back-to-back wins, including an 8-inning 2-hit shutout against San Francisco. Bergesen has an ERA of 6.09 on the season and he has been shelled in his last 2 starts, giving up 10 runs in just over 11 innings of work. The A's have owned the O's, winning 14 of the last 17 meetings, and we'll ride with them here.
Dwayne Bryant
LAL -7.5 vs PHO
The Lakers find themselves in a war after losing both games in Phoenix. With the series tied at two games each, I expect the Lakers to take back control of this series tonight at the Staples Center. These two have squared off four times in LA this season (2 regular season games & 2 in this series). The Lakers have won (and covered) all four of those meetings with the final margins of 19, 20, 21, and 12 points. The change in venue makes all the difference when these two lock horns. And the Lakers are very good at bouncing back from consecutive losses. Including the playoffs, the Lakers are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season when coming off back-to-back losses. Lay the points with the Lakers.
Andre Gomes
Minnesota Lynx @ Connecticut Sun
In my opinion this is a good example of how the last results can create a false perception about the superiority of one team against the other. Connecticut is coming from an impressive 15-point win against Washington while Minnesota lost at home by 12 points against Tulsa despite being 6.5/7 points favorites. Saying that I just don't think that difference between these two teams right now is good enough for such large spread, obviously I'm with the underdog in here…
The Lynx home loss against the Shock was uncharacteristic as they fell into Tulsa's style of playing trap = TO's + Fast Break points + Points in the paint! Minnesota have committed 23 turnovers and allowed whopping marks of 30 fast break points and 48 points in the paint! This won't happen tonight simply because the Sun doesn't play the same style as of the Shock.
Connecticut can't overpower anyone right now in the front despite having the #1 rookie (they are without two great interior players to start the season) and in the first three games of the season they scored only 24, 30 and 24 points in the paint. The Lynx are in a similar position however they have one good interior player back for tonight Rebekkah Brunson and they might have a good edge in here.
With both teams struggling to score easy points in the paint I expect this contest to be a long range shooting contest and the Lynx have their own weapons to be competitive and on the road they are a fearless team: 2-0 ATS to start the season.
I'm also taking the Under in here as according to my projected line we should have been dealing with a 156/158 points line. This line is inflated due to the last h2h results but we are dealing with different teams right now that play a slow paced game when compared to last season and the matchup favors a low scoring game as both teams can't score in transition and it will be tough for them to score easy/cheap points in the paint.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 601 Minnesota Lynx (+7)
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 162
Michael Cannon
I’m now 52-44 with my last 96 free plays.
Take the Braves for the road win over the Marlins.
Hard to go against Atlanta when Tim Hudson is on the mound.
The right-hander has won four straight starts, has allowed a total of two runs and 12 hits in 22 innings and is 4-0 with a 1.26 ERA in five May starts.
Hudson has also owned the Marlins, going 8-2 with a 2.92 ERA in 15 career starts, including a 6-1 record in Miami.
Florida will counter with Ricky Nolasco, who has had his problems with Chipper Jones in his career. The veteran switch-hitter is 11 for 26 with four home runs lifetime against the Marlins’ right-hander.
The Braves’ 128 runs scored in May are more than any other NL team.
Take the Braves as they grab the road win.
4♦ ATLANTA
JAY MCNEIL
Call me nuts, but I'm taking one of the biggest underdogs on the card.
I know Johnny Cueto has been outstanding, but this is a pitching rematch, and Charlie Morton will be out for revenge from a May 11 outing.
Morton produced a quality start, allowing just three runs over six innings in that game, and though he has the majors’ highest ERA of any pitcher with at least five starts, the due theory comes into play.
Morton is crafty and can throw an 89- to 94-mile per hour fastball with sinking action down in the strike zone. He'll mix in a curveball with good rotation to keep the Reds off balance.
Take the road pup here.
4♦ PIRATES
JEFF BENTON
Bad call on the Orioles on Wednesday. Still, I remain on runs of 80-48-2 and 41-26 with plays that I’m giving away! For Thursday, play the Mets as a home underdog against the Phillies.
Two teams going in opposite directions here, as New York has won four in a row and five of six, while the Phillies have dropped four in a row and six of eight. The Mets not only have won the first two games of this series, they’ve outscored Philadelphia 13-0.
And that underscores another problem for the Phillies: Their offense has hit the skids big time, producing just 15 runs in their last eight games, including five runs in their last six defeats (and they’ve been shutout three times). At the same time, the Mets are crushing the ball, scoring 35 runs during their current 5-1 surge (and that includes a 2-1 loss to the Yankees).
New York has been dynamite at home this year (18-9), and a big reason has been right-hander Mike Pelfrey, who is 4-0 with a 2.43 ERA in six home starts (and 6-1 with a 2.86 ERA overall). The Mets are 7-2 when the right-hander starts, including 6-0 in night games (in those six night contests, Pelfrey has given up just eight runs in 39 innings for a scant 1.85 ERA).
As for Phillies starter Cole Hamels, he’s been on his game of late (seven runs allowed in his last four starts). But he’s been a different pitcher on the road (5.32 ERA) than at home (2.95 ERA), and Hamels got pounded in his first two starts at Citi Field (eight runs and 21 hits allowed in 10 innings). Beyond that, Philly is just 2-4 in Hamels’ last six starts against the Mets, who, by the way, are killing left-handed pitching (.324 average vs. lefties at home; .336 average vs. lefties last 10 games).
4♦ N.Y. METS