Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday May, 3

Lenny Del Genio

Pittsburgh Pirates at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals

This one has blowout written all over it. The Cards destroyed the Bucs 12-3 last night and have now scored 22 runs on Pirates pitching so far in this series. We look for them to sweep the visitors right out of town this afternoon. St. Louis has outscored its opponents 49-18 in winning five of six, pounding out 75 hits over that span, and Jake Westbrook (3-1, 1.30 ERA) should not feel threatened in the least by a Pirates lineup averaging just 2.8 runs per game. Pittsburgh lefty Erik Bedard on the other hand must deal with a St. Louis lineup averaging 7.3 runs per game at home and eight full runs per game vs. lefties. Take St. Louis.

Rob Vinciletti

Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa is nearly a 2-1 favorite here so we will make it the free play as we don't release games your grandmother can pick for the late phones. Tampa does qualify in a 14-1 system that plays on certain home favorites off a home favored win if they were -200 or higher and scored 5 or more runs with 5 or more men left on base, and are playing a road dog off a loss and scored 4 or less runs on 5+ hits and had an error in the loss. Seattle is 4-16 on turf and 1-5 this season averaging under 2 runs per game on the artificial surface. They have dropped 26 of 35 on Thursdays and have a hideous 5.11 road bullpen era. Millwood makes the start and he has a 5 era vs Tampa Bay. Niemann goes for Tampa and he is 4-0 with a 2.87 era vs Seattle. Tampa is 11-1 at home this season and has won 9 of 13 vs losing teams. They also have a solid 2.12 home bullpen era and have taken 10 of the last 12 overall here vs Seattle. Look for them to take another here today.

JR O'Donnell

Arizona D-Backs -110

Arizona should have won last night, and self destructed after "3" wins n a row, as the bullpen blew the lead and surrendered "2" runs in the bottom of the 9th! Washington won for only the first time "6" games, and we believe that will not happen here! Ian Kennedy (3-0 3.38 ERA) goes for the D-Backs, against Ross Detweiler (2-1 1.64 ERA) for the Nat'ls. Interestingly enough, Detweiler has yet to get by the "6th" inning, and Washington is outscored at home. Arizona scores more, 5 r/g on the road and will win this one!

Dave Cokin

Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays

The Halos are on a nice little streak, but they're in tough today. The Blue Jays will be focused to rebound after getting no-hit and Brandon Morrow looked very good in his last start. Dan Haren is rock solid but is not exactly getting lucky. The underdog Blue Jays are the choice.

Jim Feist

Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants
Pick: Miami Marlins

Miami goes with a red-hot arm in Anibal Sanchez and the Marlins are 8-3 in Sanchez's last 11 starts vs. National League West. He has a 2.73 ERA and has fanned 33 in 26 innings with only 19 hits allowed and 8 walks! The Marlins are 5-2 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter and face aging Ryan Vogelsong (0-1, 4.19 ERA). San Francisco has a weak offense and the Giants are 8-18 in their last 26 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Play the Marlins.

EZWINNERS

Philadelphia Phillies +115

The Phillies starting pitcher Joe Blanton is coming off of his best outing in years in his last start against the Cubs and I like him to keep rolling in this game. I look for the Phillies to provide Blanton with the run support that he needs against the Braves, and their struggling pitcher Randall Delgado. Delgado has a 6.30 ERA so far this season as he has not had any command over his breaking pitches and has relied heavily on his fastball. I look for the Philadelphia lineup to sit on that fastball and put some runs on the board for Blanton. Play on Philadelphia.

SPORTS WAGERS

Oklahoma City +150 over DALLAS

Give the Mavericks a lot of credit for going into Oklahoma City and nearly stealing both games. Dallas could conceivably be up 2-0 in this series with some bounces going its way. However, they didn’t and they’re down 0-2 after playing two near perfect road games. The Mavs give OKC some matchup problems with their heavy dose of zone defenses but the Thunder will make some more adjustments here. Ultimately, Dallas' offensive woes give the Thunder a great chance to win game three, as the Mavericks finished 20th in the league in offensive efficiency. The Mavs have wobbled along like a one-and-done team all season long and while they'll make the Thunder look ragged and impatient at times, they’re a risky proposition at best. Ok City has a chance to win it all and this is a great opportunity to show the killer instinct needed to win a championship. At this price, the reward is too great to pass up on. Play: Oklahoma City +150 (Risking 2 units).

Miami/NEW YORK under 186½

The first game these two combined to score 167. The second game they put up 198 and this game is very likely to fall somewhere in between that pair. The Heat have put up 100 points or more in both games. That’s not the way the Knicks want to play. For New York to have any chance of winning they have to play shut down defense. They have to work the shot clock and limit Miami’s possessions. The Heat are too good and too proficient to be given the number of opportunities that they had in Miami. The Knicks have to take care of the ball better and if all that comes to pass, this game will stay under because the Knicks have numerous offensive concerns against the outstanding defense of the Heat. A road game for Miami is much different than a home game. This intruder is focused and determined to make quick work of the Knicks and they know it starts with defense on the road. Miami could surely jump out to a significant lead and that’s when the Knicks will start taking impossible shots. The Knicks are in trouble and the only way this game goes over is if they hit a high percentage and that, too, is rather unlikely. Play: Miami/New York under 186½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

SPORTS WAGERS

Pittsburgh +145 over ST. LOUIS (1st 5 innings)

Because this wager is based solely on today’s starting pitchers, we’ll play it in the first five innings. Jake Westbrook has put him Clayton Kershaw numbers (1.31 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) but he’s no Clayton Kershaw. He’s the exact same Jake Westbrook that posted a 4.66 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and .290 BAA last season and who has a career 4.28 ERA in 12 seasons of employment. Few starting pitchers have been helped more than Westbrook’s 86% strand rate. His elite groundball rate of 65% is what has caused this sudden ERA dip but a numbers erosion is on the horizon because Westbrook remains one of the most hittable pitchers in the game. Erik Bedard has pitched well for Pittsburgh but his win one win against four losses doesn't show it. He owns a 2.48 ERA and has struck out 26 batters in his 29 innings of work. In his first four starts, the Pirates scored three runs combined and that’s the only reason he’s 1-4. Bedard still has the goods to be an upper-tier starter and at age 32 the stats follow, especially ERA and strikeouts. Jake Westbrook should never be in this price range. Play: Pittsburgh +145 in the first 5 innings (Risking 2 units).

Toronto +119 over L.A. ANGELS

When Brandon Morrow is on his game, he’s dominating. He’s always had the stuff to be an elite starter and staff anchor but just can’t get over that hump. He’s coming off a dominating performance over the Mariners and has a great chance to make it back-to-back pure quality starts. Los Angeles has some ugly offensive numbers and while they’ve won three in a row and scored 17 times, it came against the Twins Nick Blackburn, Francisco Liriano and rookie Liam Hendricks, arguably the worst trio on the same team in the majors. Prior to that, the Halos had lost six of seven. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have won four of five and just took two of three over Texas. Jays have scored 37 runs over that five game stretch. Dan Haren is a consistent, underrated workhorse that puts up good numbers year after year. However, an increasing fly-ball rate that led to four jacks allowed in his first three starts in a blip worth watching. The Jays bats are going yard quite frequently these past few games and could tag Haren with a couple more. A tag on a warm Blue Jays team with a pitcher that can dominate gets the call. Play: Toronto +119 (Risking 2 units).

Lenny Del Genio

Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals

This one has blowout written all over it. The Cards destroyed the Bucs 12-3 last night and have now scored 22 runs on Pirates pitching so far in this series. We look for them to sweep the visitors right out of town this afternoon. St. Louis has outscored its opponents 49-18 in winning five of six, pounding out 75 hits over that span, and Jake Westbrook (3-1, 1.30 ERA) should not feel threatened in the least by a Pirates lineup averaging just 2.8 runs per game. Pittsburgh lefty Erik Bedard on the other hand must deal with a St. Louis lineup averaging 7.3 runs per game at home and eight full runs per game vs. lefties.

John Ryan

Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Seattle Mariners

The simulator shows a high probability that Seattle will get a huge upset win in this game. Seattle is in a strong role for this win. They are 13-3 (+13.4 Units) against the money line in road games after two straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs over the last two seasons. Rays skipper is 37-44 (-21.0 Units) against the money line after having won 8 or more of their last 10 games. This shows that the line gets over valued as the public steadily will join any team that is on an established winning streak. Baseball is a great game and one of the reason why is that unexpected results happen nearly everyday. I strongly believe this will be one of them and we are getting paid handsomely to take the Mariners in this situation.

David Banks

New York Knicks +5..5

The Miami Heat (48-20, 34-34 ATS) have taken a 2-0 series lead vs. the New York Knicks (36-32, 36-32 ATS) and the first two games have been won with totally different styles, as Miami won Game 1 with suffocating defense and Game 2 by shooting lights out. The scene now shifts for Game 3 however to Madison Square Garden in New York, NY on Thursday night at 7:00 ET in a game televised on TNT. There should be an electric atmosphere in the Big Apple as there usually is when LeBron James comes to town, but will that be enough to propel the Knicks to a much needed win to get back in this series?

It certainly will not be easy as the Heat have already proven that they can beat the Knicks regardless of the tempo. Game 1 was dominated by Miami's defense in a 100-67 rout where they held the Knicks to a microscopic 35.7 percent shooting and forced an incredible 27 turnovers. The defense was not nearly as tight in a 104-94 win in Game 2 where the Heat still covered the spread as 9-point favorites. Miami allowed the Knicks to shoot 49.4 percent in that contest but it still did not matter, as the Heat shot a fantastic 52.1 percent overall including 42.9 percent from beyond the three-point arc! The scoring was spread out too as six players scored in double-digits, led by Dwayne Wade with 25 points followed by LeBron with 19. Even back-ups Mike Miller and Shane Battier scored 11 points apiece off the bench, and both had very similar stat lines as each hit on three of their five attempts from three-point land. Winning games regardless of the style is nothing new for the Heat though, as they finished ranked seventh in the NBA in scoring and fourth in field goal percentage on offense during the regular season, as well as fourth in points against and fifth in field goal percentage allowed on defense.

Now the good news for the Knicks returning home is that they have been basically unbeatable at Madison Square Garden since Mike Woodson took over as head coach, going 11-1 both straight up and against the spread in their last 12 games here. What is the bad news, you ask? Well, the one loss came to the Heat 93-85 on April 15th. Still, the Knicks were not embarrassed that day and they were much more competitive in Game 2 after Miami blew the doors open early in Game 1. The best news about Game 2 was that while Carmelo Anthony led the way as usual with 30 points, the Knicks had four other players score at least 12 points including J.R. Smith providing 13 off the bench. New York will need that kind of balance if it hopes to pull off an upset here.

The Knicks have yet to beat the Heat all year as Miami swept the three regular season meetings. The Knicks did barely cover the spread in the first meeting of the year, losing by 10 points as 12-point underdogs, but the Heat have covered the last four matchups. That aforementioned April 15th battle was the only meeting in New York however, and it was the only meeting that Miami has not won by double-digits.

MLB Predictions

St Louis Cardinals -149

The Cardinals have won 5 of their last 6 games including the first two of this three game series vs Pittsburgh. St Louis has scored 22 runs over the two games (10-7 and 12-3 wins) and have improved to 16-8 on the season and 8-3 at home. The Pirates are now 10-14 and 5-10 away from home. Pittsburgh is averaging just 2.83 runs per game, while the Cardinals are averaging 5.62 per game (and a higher 7.27 at home). The Pirates send Erik Bedard to the mound, who has had some bad luck with a 1-4 record. Bedard has pitched better than the 1-4 record indicates with a 2.48 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and .266 opponents batting average, but those numbers don't look special next to St Louis' starter this afternoon. Jake Westbrook is 3-1 with a 1.30 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and .210 opponents batting average over his first 4 starts. His shortest outing was 6.2 innings, and he gave up a season "high" 2 earned runs against in that start. Westbook has allowed just 4 earned runs over 27.2 innings of work. Take note that the Pirates are hitting just .218 against right-handed pitchers, and have an OBP of just .270. The Cardinals are hitting .282 against lefties with a much better .356 OBP. The Pirates are 66-155 in their last 221 road games, and nothing has changed this season with their 5-10 road record. The Pirates are also 19-52 in their last 72 road games vs a team with a home winning % of .600 or higher. The Cardinals are 23-8 in their last 31 home games, 19-7 in their last 26 games as a favorite, and 4-0 in their last 4 vs a left handed starter. St Louis has taken 6 of the last 7 meetings with Pittsburgh, and everything is pointing to St Louis here again this afternoon. Laying some chalk but I still think we got a great price with the Cards today. This is an early start.

WUNDERDOG

Miami at San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco +110

The Miami Marlins have won just four games on the road all season at 4-9, but two of them have come in the first two games in San Francisco. The big reason has been a bolstered lineup which is failing miserably on the road, as the Marlins have generated 13 runs in their last nine road games, or less than 1.5 per contest. They won't win a lot of games like that. Despite the pair of losses, the Giants still have a winning record at home. On the bump for the Giants is Ryan Vogelsong, who has led them to a 10-3 record in his last 13 starting in a game when facing an opponent that allowed 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Marlins on the other hand have not been up to the task when taking on an opponent that scored 2 or less in their last game at 5-16 in their last 21. We have a live dog here, so play on San Francisco.

Steve Janus

Arizona Diamondbacks -110

I suffered a heartbreaking loss on the Diamondbacks +115 last night, as the Nationals hit a walk-off 2-run home run in the bottom of the ninth. That won't stop me from backing Arizona again on Thursday, as they continue to show great value behind one of their top starters.

The Diamondbacks will send out Ian Kennedy, who is 3-0 with a 3.37 ERA in five starts this season. Kennedy also has an impressive 1.46 ERA in two starts on the road. He is respectable 2-1 with a 2.52 ERA in four career starts vs the Nationals, and has been dominate at Washington. In two starts at Washington he is 2-0 and has allowed just two runs over 14 innings of work.

It's also worth noting that Kennedy is 22-8 against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons and 15-3 against the money line vs. terrible power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons.