Jack Jones
Chicago White Sox -115
The Chicago White Sox are showing solid value as a small home favorite to the Cleveland Indians tonight. Neither Justin Masterson nor John Danks is off to a very good start this season, but I believe the White Sox have the better hurler on the mound in this one.
Masterson has been atrocious in two road starts this season. He is 0-1 with a 12.46 ERA and 2.653 WHIP while allowing 12 earned runs and 23 base runners in 8 2/3 innings. He also has just three strikeouts away from home.
The White Sox are 7-2 in Danks' last 9 starts as a home favorite. The Indians are 2-8 in Masterson's last 10 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Cleveland is 29-60 in their last 89 games as an underdog. The Indians are 0-4 in their last 4 games following a win. Bet Chicago Thursday.
Larry Ness
Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Diamondbacks
Washington phenom Bryce Harper was a combined 2-for-9 in his first three big-leagues games, but the No. 1 pick in the 2010 draft went 3-for-4 and scored two runs last night, as the Nats broke their five-game losing streak when Ian Desmond hit a two-out, ninth-inning game-winning homer off D’backs closer JJ Putz. The Nats opened 14-4 but despite outstanding starting pitching, had lost five straight games, as the team’s offense was only able to score only SEVEN runs in the slide. Still, Washington’s 15-9 and leads the NL East as of Thursday morning. Washington’s 2.47 team ERA leads all of MLB and the Nats will send Ross Detwiler to the hill. Detwiler is typical of Washington’s starters this year, allowing 16 hits in 22 innings with a 1.64 ERA (19-6 KW ratio, going 2-1 (team is 2-2). The D’backs will counter with Ian Kennedy, who made a real run at last year’s NL Cy Young award (won by LA’s Clayton Kershaw). Kennedy finished 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA and ended up as MLB’s top moneymaker among starters, at 25-8 plus-$1784. He was 6-0 over his final seven starts last season and Kennedy is 3-0 with a 3.38 ERA through five turns in the rotation in 2012. Going back to July 8, he’s a quite remarkable 16-1 over his last 20 starts with the D’backs winning going 17-3. I’m ‘riding’ that streak here. Take the visiting team.
Jimmy Boyd
New York Yankees -135
Motivated by back-to-back embarrassing defeats to AL East rival Baltimore, expect the Yankees to bounce back strong on the road versus a Kansas City club that's 0-10 at home.
Two of those home defeats have come with scheduled starter Danny Duffy on the hill. He's 0-2 with a 5.56 ERA in those starts. Dating back to last season, the Royals are 0-5 in Duffy's last 5 home starts and 0-8 in his last 8 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. It is also worth noting that he was rocked for 8 earned runs in just 3 innings of work in his lone start against the Yankees.
Rookie David Phelps is slated to make his first major league start, and I expect him to be effective. "There's nothing that tells me he can't be a major league starter," manager Joe Girardi said. The numbers certainly support that claim as Phelps posted a 2.99 ERA in 20 minor league starts last season.
The Yankees are 65-25 in their last 90 meetings with the Royals. We'll take the Yanks.
OC Dooley
KC Royals +125
We had a pair of teams that are not used to getting national exposure take full advantage of TV appearances yesterday beginning in the afternoon when Toronto routed Texas by an 11-5 count at home (MLB Network). Last night in front of the ESPN cameras Baltimore stunningly went out and won a series at Yankee Stadium for the first time in recent memory. This evening a very young and talented Kansas City contingent gets their shot in front of the TV lights courtesy of MLB Network and they are conceivably catching the opposition at just the right time. With a starting staff that has one of the worst collective ERA’s in the American League the Yankees need to score a multitude of runs in order to come out on the winning side of the scoreboard. But for the moment the Bronx Bombers attack has been silenced as the Yankees have crossed the plate only THREE times in the past 3 games combined. In last night’s 5-0 loss at home the various batters in the New York lineup struck out a grand total of 10 times which showed a lack of plate discipline. The Yankees tonight are giving David Phelps his first starting assignment which means the bullpen which now has the “demoted” Freddy Garcia as part of the group will be called on early. Getting back to Kansas City they won at Detroit last night in a game where slugger Eric Hosmer finally snapped an 0-for-18 slump. The Royals have been profitable on the highway but check in this evening with an 0-10 mark in front of their own fans who are starved for a victory since the city will be hosting this year’s All Star Game. Here is a 62-PERCENT SYSTEM (80-48 since 1997 with a money line between +125/-125) which plays ON horrible home teams like Kansas City with a winning percentage of 38-or-lower, when off an upset victory against a “divisional” opponent
Hollywood Sports
Flyers at Devils
Play: Over
Philadelphia (52-29-2-7) looks to rebound from their 4-1 loss to the Devils in Game Two -- and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 road games. With eight players who accumulated at least 40 points in the regular season, the Flyers recipe for success is to score goals and not rely on their ever-shaky goaltending. Unfortunately for Philly, Ilya Bryzgalov has been a disappointment after being signed as a free agent. The goaltender's .909 save percentage during the regular season was his worst mark since the '08-09 campaign. Of course, Philadelphia goalies do not get much from their forwards who sacrifice defense for playing more aggressively in their opponent's end of the ice. The Over is 7-3-1 in the Flyers' last 11 games against teams with a winning record. And Philly has played 6 of their last 8 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog. New Jersey (53-31-3-4) is not focused on the defensive end as they have been in past seasons -- and with Henrik Tallinder now out of the playoffs due to his blood clot, the Devils are a bit shorthanded at their blue line. The Over is 3-1-2 in New Jersey's last 6 games following a win. And the Over is also 3-1-2 in their last 6 games after allowing two goals or less in their last game. Its goaltender's Martin Brodeur's 40th birthday on Sunday as his days of standing on his head in the Stanley Cup playoffs seem behind him. Take the Over (which is the money line underdog) in this one.
Dave Price
Arizona Diamondbacks -108
The D-backs are showing value at this price with ace Ian Kennedy on the bump versus a Washington club struggling at the plate. The
Diamondbacks are 35-17 in his last 52 starts, 11-5 in his last 16 road starts, 19-7 in his last 26 starts as a favorite and 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a road favorite. Take the Snakes.
Black Widow
Arizona Diamondbacks -108
Arizona starter Ian Kennedy is a proven winner who was deserving of the NL Cy Young award last season. Washington starter Ross Detwiler is off to a fast start this season, but he's no proven winner, and it's only a matter of time before he comes back down to reality. I'll back the proven starter in this one and side with the Diamondbacks at an excellent price Thursday. Kennedy was a 21-game winner last year, and he's 3-0 with a 3.37 ERA this season. That includes a 1-0 record and a 1.46 ERA in two road starts. Kennedy is 2-1 with a 2.52 ERA in four lifetime starts versus Washington. Enough said. Take the Diamondbacks on the Money Line.