DUNKEL INDEX
NBA
San Antonio at Oklahoma City
The Thunder look to take advantage of a San Antonio team that is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 playoff games as an underdog. Oklahoma City is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Thunder favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-3 1/2)
Game 709-710: San Antonio at Oklahoma City (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 123.971; Oklahoma City 129.296
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 5 1/2; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 3 1/2; 206
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-3 1/2); Over
MLB
Milwaukee at LA Dodgers
The Brewers look to build on their 5-1 record in Zack Greinke's last 6 starts against the NL West. Milwaukee is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Brewers favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-115)
Game 901-902: Houston at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Norris) 13.927; Colorado (Guthrie) 15.265
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Colorado (-120); 10
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-120); Over
Game 903-904: Milwaukee at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Greinke) 15.735; LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 15.030
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-115); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-115); Under
Game 905-906: Detroit at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 15.687; Boston (Beckett) 15.443
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+120); Over
WNBA
Phoenix at Atlanta
The Dream look to take advantage of a Phoenix team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 road games. Atlanta is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Dream favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-5 1/2)
Game 601-602: Phoenix at Atlanta (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 107.173; Atlanta 116.688
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 9 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 5 1/2; 185 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-5 1/2); Over
Ben Burns
Brewers @ Dodgers
PICK: Over 6.5
While I respect both starters, given their current form, I feel this number is a little low.
Greinke gave up seven runs last time out, lasting only 2 1/3 innings. In that short stretch, he gave up 10 hits and walked three. In five road starts this season, he's 2-2 with an awful 7.03 ERA and 1.932 WHIP. Not surprisingly, four of those five games finished above the total.
Billingsley has also been very good to "over" bettors. In fact, the "over" is 7-2-1 in his 10 starts.
Billingsley hasn't been very sharp lately. Over his last three starts, he's got a poor 5.40 ERA and a terrible 2.00 WHIP. In 15 innings, he's given up 21 hits and walked nine batters.
Both teams average more than four runs a game. Consider the Over.
Jesse Schule
Tigers @ Red Sox
PICK: Under 9
The Tigers will try to to avoid the sweep against the Red Sox in Boston on Thursday, but they will need to beat Josh Beckett in order to do so. Beckett's numbers on the season aren't so impressive, and he has angered Red Sox fans with comments made earlier this month."We get 18 off days a year. Off days should be for the way I want to spend them ... I think we deserve a little bit of time to ourselves,' Beckett told reporters.
He doesn't seem to realize that the average working class fan will never in his lifetime earn as much as he does in one season, and obviously this wasn't going to sit well with fans. His poor start to the season had fans questioning a golf outing, just two days before missing a scheduled start with an injury. Beckett might not have earned his paycheck earlier in May, but he has been worth every penny in his last two starts, going 2-0 with a 1.25 ERA.
The Tigers will hand the ball to Max Sherzer, who has also struggled earlier this season. Like Beckett though, he has been lights out in recent outings, striking out 24 batters and allowing just one walk in his last two starts. Sherzer leads the major leagues with 12 strikeouts per nine innings.
This one has all the signs of becoming a pitchers duel, I am going to recommend a play on the UNDER!
Dave Cokin
Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox
Pick: Detroit Tigers
The Red Sox are going better lately and Josh Beckett gas gotten on track. But my numbers say the value here is with the road team at the price, so the Tigers are the choice tonight.
Jim Feist
Brewers vs Dodgers
Pick: Under
A weak Milwaukee offense is in Dodger stadium, a great pitcher's park. Milwaukee clearly misses Prince Fielder, ranked 26th in batting average and 22nd on on-base percentage. At least they can attack the Dodgers with a strong strikeout pitcher in Zack Greinke (5-2, 3.66 ERA), who has fanned 62 in 59 innings with only 15 walks. The under is 22-10-3 in the Brewers last 35 vs. the National League West. LA starter Chad Billingsley is also a strong strikeout artist with 52 Ks in 55+ innings and the under is 5-1-2 in the Dodgers last 8 games as a favorite. And when these teams meet the under is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings. Play the Brewers/Dodgers under the total.
SPORTS WAGERS
Houston +106 over COLORADO (1st 5 innings)
Over the past five years as an Oriole, Jeremy Guthrie has proven that he’s a middle of the road pitcher that will never be anything more than a four or five guy. As a soft tosser with control issues, pitching at Coors Field, Guthrie is about as risky a proposition as any pitcher in the majors. In 41 innings, Guthrie has already walked 17 batters while striking out just 18. His WHIP in May (1.71) is alarmingly high and his 5.31 ERA is right in line with his 5.03 xERA. Pitching for the 20-29 Rockies, Guthrie deserves to be favored over few pitchers and Bud Norris isn’t one of them. The Astros have won eight of Norris’s 10 starts. Norris has had one bad outing all year and has allowed just one jack over his last six starts. He has an elite strikeout rate of 62 batters in 62 innings while issuing just 22 free passes. The Astros have dropped five in a row and their bullpen is shaky, especially after last night’s debacle. However, we certainly like Norris to outpitch Guthrie over the first five frames and that’s the way we’ll play this one. Play: Houston +106 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
Stephen Nover
Houston Astro's +110
Generally it's advisable to stay away from the Astros when they are on the road. But this matchup is an exception.
Houston has the better pitcher going and is an underdog. The Rockies are starting Jeremy Guthrie, who has yet to prove he can successfully pitch at Coors Field, and most likely are going to be missing star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, who left Wednesday's game with a sore groin.
Guthrie has yet to win at Coors where his ERA is a fat 9.92. He has surrendered six earned runs in each of his last three home starts. Making this even worse is that those opponents all were weak-hitting teams - the Mariners, Padres and Giants.
Norris has allowed just four earned runs during his last five starts spanning 30 2/3 innings. The Astros are 5-1 in Norris' last six starts. Norris is Houston's best strikeout pitcher, a key when pitching at Coors.
Bryan Power
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
PICK: Los Angeles Dodgers
All of a sudden, the Dodgers have lost three straight to the Brewers and are now facing the rare four-game sweep at home. Despite the pitching matchup seemingly in favor of Milwaukee here, I look for the Dodgers to break through and salvage the final game of this series.
Zack Greinke has been outstanding at home since coming over to Milwaukee last year. The team has only lost one of his 20+ starts at Miller Park the last two seasons, that coming earlier this year. However, throughout his career, the road has been a different story. His TSR (team start record) is just 12-23 away from home since joining Milwaukee and that includes a 4-14 mark if the team is off a win in its previous game. In five road starts this season, Grienke has a very poor 7.03 ERA. This includes a terrible showing in his last trip to the mound, an 8-5 loss to Arizona where he surrendered seven runs off 10 hits and failed to make it out of the third inning. This will be his first ever start at Chavez Ravine.
The Dodgers have been a great home team all season at 21-8 (keep in mind they were 21-5) and they are also 21-9 this season vs. right-handed starters. Chad Billingsley has certainly been less than spectacular, but he's coming off a solid showing in his last start plus the team is 5-1 in his six home starts this season (3.66 ERA).
Jack Jones
Boston Red Sox -133
The Boston Red Sox are playing their best baseball of the season right now. Boston (26-24) has gotten to two games over .500 for the first time all year thanks to three straight wins over the Detroit Tigers to open this series. The Red Sox have scored a combined 19 runs in the three victories.
After a shaky start, Josh Beckett has pitched very well of late. Beckett is 2-2 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in five home starts this season, and 2-0 with a 1.25 ERA and 0.877 WHIP in his last three outings. He has allowed just 3 earned runs over 21 2/3 innings in his last three starts.
Max Scherzer is one of the most overrated starters in the big leagues. The right-hander is 4-3 with a 5.67 ERA and 1.537 WHIP through 10 starts this season. Scherzer has never beaten Boston, going 0-2 with a whopping 11.81 ERA and 2.313 WHIP in four career starts against the Red Sox. He has allowed 14 earned runs over 4 2/3 innings in his last two starts against them.
Detroit is 5-20 against the money line in road games vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. The Red Sox are 30-11 in Beckett's last 41 starts as a home favorite. Boston is 9-2 in their last 11 home games. The Tigers are 26-59 in their last 85 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Bet Boston Thursday.
Steve Janus
Milwaukee Brewers -113
The Brewers are quietly turning things around. They have won three straight and five of their last seven overall. My money is on Milwaukee to cash in again on Thursday, as they send out their ace Zach Greinke against the struggling Chad Billingsley.
Greinke really struggled in his last outing at Arizona, allowing 7 runs in just 2.3 innings of work. Even the elite starters have an off night. Prior to that performance, Greinke had allowed 1 earned run over his previous three starts.
Greinke has made three starts against the Dodgers in his career. He is 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA, while his team has went on to win all three starts. With the Dodgers losing Matt Kemp to another injury, look for their offense to continue to struggle. Los Angeles is 2-5 over their last 7 games, averaging just 2.2 runs in those five losses.
The Brewers should be able to give Greinke plenty of run-support in this one. Billingsley is 2-3 with a 3.88 ERA in 10 starts this season. He comes into tonight's game really struggling to get people out. Over his last three starts, his ERA has climbed to 5.40 and he has an awful 2.00 WHIP.
The Brewers are 13-1 in Greinkes last 14 starts following a team loss in his previous start. They are also 27-6 in Greinkes last 33 starts as a favorite and 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Bobby Conn
San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Play: Oklahoma City Thunder -4
The public is going to be all over the Spurs here on Thursday night but I'm going with the Thunder to catch a win on their home floor. San Antonio has been great on the road and all the talk is about them being the first team to go undefeated through the playoffs, but Oklahoma City has been dominant on their home floor and they aren't getting swept. This is a good spot and a low number tonight.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Oklahoma City/ San Antonio Under 206: After seeing game 2 the obvious way to look would be to the Over, but I will head the other way here. Despite all the points that San Antonio has put up during their win streak, they do not want to run with this Thunder team. The Spurs allowed 111 points in their last game and 98 points in game 1 an that is unlike this team as they allowed just 88.8 ppg in their first 8 playoff games this year. I expect the Spurs to tighten it up a bit at the defensive end in this one. For the Thunder they have played good defense at home this year, allowing just 95.5 ppg at home overall and just 90.5 ppg at home in the playoffs. This team can not be happy about allowing 120 sand 101 points in the first 2 games of this series. Thunder home games have averaged 200 ppg, while their home playoff games have averaged just 191 ppg. I expect a bit more defense in this one than in games 1 and 2 as this game is played in the 190's.