Nick Parsons
San Jose Sharks at Detroit Red Wings
Prediction: Detroit Red Wings
I believe the Wings will play their best game of this series and stave off elimination with a concerted effort in front of the home town crowd:
San Jose is well on its way to reaching the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2004.
Evgeni Nabokov has consistently been the better goaltender in this series; that said, I expect the Sharks to come out a bit flat-footed in this one, giving the Wings enough of an edge to win one game of this series, as San Jose will look to finish off the defending Western Conference champs in Game 5 in its own barn.
Although San Jose won Game 3, the fact remains that the Sharks always struggle at the Joe; 6-18-1 their last 25 when playing on the road against Detroit.
On the other side of the rink: Only two teams in NHL history have come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series, and while I don't believe that will be the case here, I do believe the Wings will play a complete game in this one and do just enough to secure their first victory of the second round.
And this is a position that the Wings have excelled in all year; 6-1 (+4.8 units) after three or more consecutive losses.
Bottom line: Look for DETROIT to get its first victory of the second round.
Mike Anthony
Braves vs. Nationals
Play: Under 8.5
I don’t think that these awful offenses will go OVER on 3 straight nights. Atlanta has had problems scoring all season. Washington had a run of eight straight ‘unders’ last week. These are two division rivals that will both be fighting hard for this game. Washington wants the series win and so does Atlanta. These are two very clear ‘under’ teams and they will stay low scoring tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
PHILADELPHIA –1½ +1.01 over St. Louis
Note the 1:05 PM EST start. After pitching and dominating for years in the AL, Roy Halliday is making minced meat out of these NL squads. His career ERA before this season started was 3.38 and even in that hitter’s paradise in Philadelphia he’s shattering that this season. The AL is simply a much more talented league and Halliday is making these NL hitters look like minor-leaguers. His ERA this season is 1.47 in six starts. At home his ERA is 1.06. He’s walked four batters in 49 frames while striking out 39. So what’s that genius, Tony LaRussa, going to do today? Insert the pitcher into the seventh spot in the batting order? The Cards have scored one run over the last two games here. They were shutout yesterday by Kyle Kendricks. Yeah, they’re 18-10 and they’re going to win that division going away. However, it’s not because they’re a great team. They’re just the best team in the weakest division in baseball, the NL Central. The Cards can finish under .500 and win that division. You want to know what’s incredible….Kyle Loshe is making more money than Tim Hudson. Lohse will earn 9.1M this season while Hudson will earn 9M. Lohse is a career stiff that has seen his FO/GB ratio soar this season in favor of the fly-out. It stands at 39 groundouts to 60 fly-outs right now and the fact that nobody has gone yard on him yet this season is a minor miracle. Lohse has an 11.00 ERA on the road in two starts and when he pitched in a similar park in Arizona he didn’t make it to the fourth inning. Lohse’s three decent starts this season have all come at pitcher-friendly Busch and they came against the feeble hitting Astros, Braves and Reds. This looks like a mismatch on paper and when they play it out, chances are it will end that way too. Play: Philadelphia –1½ +1.01 (Risking 2 units).
WASHINGTON +1.25 over Atlanta
Tim Hudson has been rock solid in five starts this year with an ERA of 2.87 but a close look reveals that he really hasn’t pitched as good as that ERA suggests, not even close. First off, Hudson has pitched at San Diego, San Fran and St. Louis and those three parks can make anyone look good. He’s also faced the Astros at home and that team could’ve made Ernie Harwell look good three days ago. Fact is, Hudson has walked 12 and struck out 12 in 31 innings and that’s a sign of sure trouble. A pitcher’s Base Performance Value or BPV (this formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success. Roy Halliday’s BPV is 139. Tim Hudson’s BPV is 11 after five starts. Scott Olsen’s BPV is 60. So, when you read between the lines, Hudson cannot sustain that low ERA much longer. He’s been hit hard but it just does not show yet and he’ll face a very dangerous offense here. The Braves are 1-3 on the road vs southpaws and will face another one here. Olsen has tossed 13 scoreless innings over his last two starts against the Dodgers and Marlins. He’s capable again of doing well here but this choice is more about taking back a tag against Hudson on the road and win or lose here, the true value is on the Nats. Play: Washington +1.25 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago –1½ +1.10 over PITTSBURGH
There are some concerns about Randy Wells and some suggest he’s a one-year wonder but the former catcher-turned-pitcher could really be a diamond in the rough. Wells recorded his fourth consecutive strong performance in five starts to open the season Friday with an eight-strikeout, no-walk outing against the D-Backs. His control has been pinpoint thus far with just five walks while striking out 27 in 31 frames. His road ERA is 1.42 and the Cubbies almost always supply him with strong run support. The real kicker here is that the Cubbies will see Brian Burres. In 15 innings thus far, Burres has given up 18 hits and walked 11 batters and is constantly behind in the count. In a relief appearance against the Astros two weeks ago he was tagged for three hits and two runs in 1.2 innings and he also walked three batters. Burres produced ERA's of near six in 2007 and 2008 (the last two seasons when he saw significant major league action), so you cannot write his poor start off to a small sample size. The only reason he’s starting is because the Pirates have nobody else to fill in and after losing the first two games of this series, one has to expect Sweet Lou and the rest of the team to be in a foul mood. Play: Chicago –1½ +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
San Francisco +1.17 over FLORIDA
I’m not really sure why Ricky Nolasco and the Marlins are favored over Matt Cain and the Giants but whatever the reason, the fact is, Cain is one of the best pitchers in the game or at least in the NL. He can dominate any line-up as he has done so many times in the past and he looks as good or better this year than he has at any point in his career. In his last start he made the Rockies look silly up there. Cain throws strikes and he’s also getting more ground ball this year than he did last year and that’s also a testament to how good this guy is throwing. Cain’s ERA over his last three starts is 1.89. Nolasco is a good pitcher to be sure and he can definitely throw a gem here but the Giants are very warm here while the Marlins are not. San Fran has won six of eight while the Fish have lost six of eight and when you throw in a tag on Cain, this one is simply a must play. Play: San Francisco +1.17 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh -½ +1.01 over MONTREAL
The Penguins really haven’t played that great in this series yet. They were mostly outplayed in game three, especially in the first two periods. They lost game two and while they won handily in the first game, that was to be expected after Montreal was back on the ice after a single day off right after eliminating the Caps. Still, Montreal scored first in game one and they scored three times in that game. Sidney Crosby has just two points in this series and they came on two helpers in game one. You can’t keep Crosby off the score sheet much longer, that’s an absolute. There’s also a chance the Pens will get back one or two key bodies tonight in Jordan Stall and/or Bill Guerin. So, after three games in which they’ve played well but have not dominated, expect the Pens to play its best game of the series tonight. A loss tonight guarantees a trip back to Montreal and more than any other team, the Pens are hungriest when they smell a kill. Montreal is spent. They used up a ton of energy in that first series and they’re not blocking nearly as many shots this series. The Habs are like a fighter that keeps taking body shots in that they’re slowly but surely wearing down. They had nothing after falling behind 2-0 in the last game and they might have less tonight should the Pens score a couple of early goals. Play: Pittsburgh -½ +1.01 (Risking 2 units).
Mitch Andrews
Boston Red Sox
Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last 5 games.
134-72 (65%) since 1997
Brett Atkins
Tonight I'm handing out a free winner with the Eastern Conference playoff game as I go ahead and grab the points with the Hawks in their Game 2 matchup with the Magic in Orlando.
We see all the time in the playoffs, a team gets blown out in one game and then responds with one of their best games in the next. That’s what you’ll see tonight from the Hawks as they were humiliated by the 42-point loss on Tuesday.
No athlete just accepts an ass-kicking like that. They all want to get back on the court ASAP and show that it was a fluke. Atlanta has a very good nucleus in Joe Johnson, Josh Smith and Al Horford and Jamal Crawford is the league’s best sixth man.
The Hawks have to make the Magic work on the defensive end and put pressure on them by scoring points.
The Hawks are on ATS streaks of 11-5 against winning teams and 22-9-1 as underdogs of 5 to 10 ½ points. They have playoff experience and know what to expect from the Magic.
I’m not saying this is an outright upset, but the Hawks will keep it within single digits and get the cover. Play Atlanta.
4♦ ATLANTA
Craig Trapp
Giants vs. Marlins
Play: Under 7.5
Two really good pitchers toe the hill today as Cain takes on Nolasco in FLA. Cain has looked better each start this season and is coming off an 8 inning 0 runs allowed performance. Nolasco has been much more up and down but other than the last outing he has been going deep in games allowing about 2.80 ERA. Today look for both of these lineups to struggle with a ton of strike outs. Late in game the bullpens will take over but still don't look for more than a few runs allowed. Neither lineup has been performing great and don't look for it to change tonight. Easy Under here.
Sean Murphy
Angels @ Boston
PICK: Angels +1.5
The Angels have taken quite a beating from the Red Sox in this series, outscored by a 25-10 margin through the first three games. So why do I think they have a shot at avoiding the sweep on Thursday?
Simple. Daisuke Matsuzaka.
What has this guy done to impress since winning 18 games in 2008? Last year he was limited by injury and made just 12 starts, going 4-6 with a 5.76 ERA. He allowed 81 hits and 30 walks in just 59 1/3 innings of work.
He was activated from the D.L. this past Saturday, making his first start of the season in Baltimore. The Orioles offered him a rude welcome, tagging him for seven hits and six earned runs over 4 2/3 innings. He needed 95 pitches to get through that start.
The Angels will hand the ball to Scott Kazmir. He has had success against the Red Sox over the course of his career. His teams are 6-2 in his last eight starts against them. That includes a 4-1 record here at Fenway Park.
Kazmir is coming off a fine outing in which he allowed just five hits and one earned run over six innings in Detroit. Unfortunately, his offense didn't give him any help in an eventual 3-2 loss. The Angels have dropped just one of Kazmir's four starts this season by more than a single run.
The Red Sox have taken care of business in this series, but it's not as if they're on an extended winning streak. Keep in mind, they were swept in Baltimore this past weekend and are still just a .500 team on the season.
The Angels are winless on this road trip, and could certainly use a win to boost their confidence before heading to Seattle for a weekend series with the Mariners. Because of their bullpen struggles, I'm not confident enough to back them on the moneyline. Instead I'll grab the insurance run at a reasonable price. Take Los Angeles +1.5 runs.
Jeff Saad
Hawks/Magic
A Everyone thinks of the Magic as a run-and-gun offensive team, but remember that Orlando is No. 1 in the league allowing .438% shooting. They are also on a 3-1 run under the total in the playoffs. It helps to have NBA Defensive Player of the Year winner Dwight Howard in the low post, too. Atlanta knows it has to play better defense if it wants to have a chance. Game 1 went under the total and this one will too. Play the Hawks/Magic Game 2 Under the total.
MTi Sports
Rays at Mariners
Play: Under
The Rays are 0-6 OU when Jeff Niemann starts as a favorite and they won their last two games and the Mariners are 0-7 OU when Ryan Rowland Smith starts at home. As a team, the Rays are 10-30-2 OU as a favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games. Take these two UNDER.
Hollywood Sports
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
Lay the wood with the Cubs over the Pirates tonight. Their starting pitcher, Randy Wells, is off to a fantastic 3-0 start with a good 3.45 ERA. Wells is usually a good proposition when pitching away from Wrigley Field. In his career, he sports a sizzling 2.60 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP on the road which compares very favorably to his 3.45 ERA and 1.33 WHIP at Wrigley. And Wells has been tough against Pittsburgh as he enjoys a 2-0 record with a 2.08 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP against the Pirates over his career. The Cubbies have won 13 of their last 18 games favored with Wells on the mound. The Pirates send out Brian Burres who has struggled with a 1-1 record, 6.00 ERA and a rough 1.93 WHIP. His career numbers at home are ugly: 6.89 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of .314. And despite being a big underdog, fading Pittsburgh in this situation remains profitable as they are just 29-67 as an underdog in the +150 to +200 range. Take the money line on the Cubs while listing both starting pitchers.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -138
Expect the Rays to keep right on rolling over Seattle tonight. The M's have lost 5 straight and 9 of their last 11. They are really struggling at the plate, scoring 3 or less runs in 7 of those 9 defeats. Things don't figure to get any easier for Seattle against Niemann tonight as he enters this contest with an ERA of just 2.76. The Rays are 10-2 in Niemann's last 12 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 9-0 in his last 9 starts vs. poor power teams averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. It is certainly worth noting that the Rays have won these 9 starts by an average score of 8.7 to 2.9. Take the Rays.
Jack Jones
Los Angeles Dodgers -122
Rarely will you find the Dodgers as such a small home favorite, especially when they are facing a losing team like the 12-15 Milwaukee Brewers. I'll take the value and run with it tonight as the Dodgers look to get payback following back-to-back losses to Milwaukee and L.A. salvages this 3-game series with a victory in Game 3. Dave Bush goes for Milwaukee after going 0-2 in his last 2 starts, allowing 10 earned runs in 10.2 innings. He also has given up 5 home runs over those 2 starts, and the Dodgers are licking their chops at the opportunity to face Bush tonight.
Bush is 7-24 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 since 1997. The Dodgers are 27-8 against the money line in home games after a loss over the last 2 seasons. The Brewers are against the money line after 2 straight games where they committed no errors this season. Milwaukee is actually losing in these spots by an average of 5.8 RPG this year. The Brewers are overvalued after winning the first two games of this series. Take the Dodgers Thursday.
Mike Rose
Chicago White Sox -170
The Blue Jays continued to be one of the best road teams in baseball yesterday afternoon at Progressive Field rallying for three runs in the top of the 9th to steal the series finale and pull off the sweep of the Cleveland Indians; the victory improved manager Cito Gaston’s club to 9-3 (+$924) as a visitor on the year.
The White Sox clawed over the .500 mark at home last night after it jumped on Royals starter Brian Bannister early with four runs in the 1st inning and cruised to the 9-2 home victory. They’re 8-7 (-$65) at “The Cell” to date.
Lefty Dana Eveland made a solid impression on his new teammates throughout his first three starts of the season. Each was a dominating effort where he allowed two ER’s or less. However, in his L/2 outings, the burly lefty has labored.
Toronto has dropped both after he allowed seven ER’s through three IP vs. the Red Sox and four ER’s through 6.2 IP vs. the A’s. All in all, Eveland stands 2-1 on the year with a 4.76 ERA & 1.59 WHIP. He’s allowed 32 hits and 15 earned runs through 28.1 IP and owns an unimpressive K/BB ratio of 13/13.
John Danks has been the one consistent hurler on manager Ozzie Guillen’s staff this season. The lefty enters his fifth start a perfect 3-0 with a 1.85 ERA & 1.00 WHIP. He’s allowed just 25 hits and seven ER’s through 34 total innings of work and boasts a rock solid K/BB ratio of 27/9.
This will be his first career start against the Blue Jays at home. In four outings at Rogers Centre, the lefty stands 1-2 with a 5.03 ERA & 1.53 WHIP. He toyed with the BJ’s offense back in mid April of this season allowing just two hits and an ER through seven IP of Chicago’s dominating 11-1 road victory.
Not a big fan of laying this type of chalk at all, but it looks to be well warranted in this spot.
Though Toronto is one of the best road teams in the game, I believe the baseball gods will punish them for pulling that win out of their behinds yesterday afternoon; the Tribe had them dead to rights and blew it.
I’m also of the belief that Eveland will continue his downward trend and get rocked by a Palehose outfit he made look foolish last month. Danks will continue to be Danks against Toronto who’s allowed two ER’s or less in 3/4 career stars vs. the BJ’s.
After getting off to a slow start, Chicago’s snagged victories in five of its L/6 home games, and its 7-1 in Danks’ L/8 outings vs. the AL East. As for Toronto, it may have taken six of its L/8 games played in Chicago, but it’s also failed to tally a “W” against each of the L/5 southpaws it’s faced.
Black Widow
1* on Tampa Bay Rays -148
We'll continue riding the best team in baseball in the Tampa Bay Rays as they finish up a 3-game set with the Seattle Mariners Thursday. Tampa Bay is now 20-7 on the season, and they've actually been playing their best baseball away from home. The Rays are 11-1 on the road this season while scoring a ridiculous 6.8 runs/game. The Seattle Mariners are struggling, losing 5 straight heading into this one while scoring a mere 2.0 runs/game during this 5-game skid. Starter Jeff Niemann remains one of the most underrated starters in the league, going 1-0 with a .276 ERA and 1.023 WHIP through 5 starts. Ryan Rowland-Smith is winless in five starts for the Mariners, going 0-1 with a 5.28 ERA. Niemann is 9-0 (+9.0 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. Seattle is the worst power team in baseball this year, hitting a mere 10 HR's through 27 games. Take the Rays on the Money Line.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Houston Astros +114
After ending its 8-game losing streak last night, look for Houston to rattle off another win Thursday. Arizona is not a strong road team. In fact, it is just 14-31 in its last 45 road games. Even with ace Dan Haren on the hill, the D-backs are only 2-7 in his last 9 road starts. They will have their work cut out for themselves against the southpaw Rodriguez tonight as they are only 8-20 in their last 28 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Astros are 16-5 in Rodriguez's last 21 home starts and a perfect 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a home underdog. We'll take the Astros.