Bryan Leonard
San Francisco Giants -105
In terms of players looking to improve on their 2013 performance, Matt Cain has to be near the top of the list. Cain, who threw six consecutive 200-inning seasons from 2007-12, posted his highest ERA since his first full season in the Majors in 2006. Look deeper into Cain's numbers and not that much actually changed from the previous season. Realistically, the problem for Cain was that he started out the season poorly and had to play catch-up with his statistics throughout the rest of the season.
In Cain's first nine starts, he posted a 5.43 ERA and allowed 13 home runs. Over Cain's final 128 innings he posted a 3.38 ERA. The home run explosion was definitely an anomaly for Cain, who has always exhibited plus command and was in the top 10 for the NL Cy Young Award in both 2011 and 2012. The expectation for Cain would be a season more along the lines of what he has traditionally accomplished and he's being undervalued in this start.
There are some concerns about Wade Miley entering this season and his five-and-fly effort in Australia didn't do a whole lot to help matters. Miley fought with both his control and command in that start and that was last season's issue as well. Miley's home run and walk rates both went up as his strikeout rate ticked down a notch. Miley relies on command to get by because he's not a big strikeout pitcher. He posted 3.33 and 3.51 ERAs over the last two seasons, but his SIERAs of 3.91 and 3.96 do signal some regression in his future.
Opposing batters slugged .424 at Chase Field against Miley last season when he posted a 4.15 ERA and an ugly 4.59 FIP. That FIP signals that it could have been worse for Miley. Also consider that Miley's control numbers with runners on base underwent a precipitous drop from his numbers from the windup. With men on base, his K/BB ratio fell to 1.94 and all the way to 1.32 with runners in scoring position. Even though Miley posted much better second half numbers, hitters made more solid contact with a line drive percentage of 22.6 percent. Those are a lot of numbers going in the wrong direction and there aren't enough signs of them stopping to like Miley against Cain.
MLB System Tracker
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros
Play: New York Yankees -140
Sabathia has had a good spring while Feldman has been less than stellar. The Yankees are 12-1 against Houston in the last thirteen and will keep that record going.
Jimmy Boyd
Toronto Blue Jays +143
The Rays are showing some solid value in Game 2 of their series against the Rays. Toronto will be sending out 23-year-old youngster Drew Hutchison, who impressed enough in the spring to earn the No. 2 spot in the rotation behind R.A. Dickey. Hutchison has a live fastball that can reach 95-96 mph and it resulted in 19 strike outs in just 15 innings during camp. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he out-pitched the Rays Alex Cobb.
The Blue Jays were one of the most disappointing teams in 2013. Many had Toronto pegged to win the AL East. To no surprise, the public is completely off this team after they finished last in the division with a 74-88 record. I believe Toronto is going to bounce back and surprise in 2014 and as long as they are showing this kind of value they are worth a look.
We do find a strong system in play favoring a fade of Cobb. American League teams with a starting pitcher whose previous season ERA was 4.20 or better after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs are just 52-82 over the last 5 seasons. That's a 61% system in favor of the Blue Jays.
Marc Lyle
Rockies vs. Marlins
Play: Over 7
After watching yesterday's game we learned that Miami can put up runs on a good Pitcher. Today Miami will be facing Anderson for Colorado who is not in that league. I don't see Miami having any issues putting up runs today. In the same manner Colorado doesnt have to face the young flamethrower tonight. Eovaldi is a good young Pitcher but he can become undone very easily. With guys like Tulo and Gonzo in the middle of your order you know you can put up runs. I see this one being to low at 7.
Timothy Black
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -149
The Dodgers are 9-3 in Greinke's last 12 road starts and 16-5 in his last 21 starts as a favorite. Also, the Dodgers are 4-0 in Greinke's last 4 starts against the Padres and they're 7-2 in their last 9 meetings overall vs. the Padres. After getting beat on "Opening Night" Sunday, I look for L.A. to get back to their dominance of San Diego on Tuesday.
Steve Janus
Arizona Diamondbacks -103
I feel like this is a great spot to jump on the Diamondbacks as basically a pick'em at home. Arizona is showing great value here because of their 0-3 start and on top of that I believe they have a slight edge on the mound.
The Giants will send out veteran Matt Cain, who is coming off an ugly 2013 campaign. While most expect Cain to rebound, he didn't exactly get off to a strong start this spring. He had a 7.47 ERA in four outings and in his final start he allowed 6 runs on 9 hits in 5 innings of work. I look for those struggles to carry over and for Cain to be a good fade in April.
Arizona will counter with Wade Miley, who started Game 1 of the Diamondbacks series against the Dodgers in Australia. While Miley ended up on the losing end, he allowed just 3 runs on 3 hits and struck out 8 over 5 innings. Odds are certainly in Miley's favor to beat San Francisco. His team has lost all 5 starts against the Giants, despite the fact that he's not allowed more than 3 earned runs in a single outing. It's also worth mentioning that each of the last four starts were all on the road.
Bryan Power
Philadelphia vs. Texas
Pick: Under
The pitchers definitely weren't "ahead of the hitters" Monday in Arlington....
The 14-10 win by the Phillies was more reminiscent of an Eagles-Cowboys score. (Fun fact: according to Elias, the cities' NFL rivals have NEVER played to that final score!) Making his 1st career start on Opening Day (1st time since Fernando Valenzuela), the Rangers' Tanner Scheppers was pretty much a disaster, giving up seven runs over four innings. The Phillies got to 13 through six innings. Overall, the 24 total runs were tied for the third most on Opening Day in the last 50 seasons.
An automatic decrease in production should be expected tonight and I think it will be quite significant. Because of Monday's result, this is the highest total on the board, tied w/ two other games. You might think that the number would be even higher and perhaps even more surprising was that at some shops it has been bet down a half run. Makes sense to me as there's simply no way these two will come even close to what they did at the plate yesterday.
I don't like the Phillies at all this year and in the Spring they scored only 102 runs while hitting a league low .222. Starters AJ Burnett and Martin Perez should do a lot better than their counterparts did yesterday.
Sammy P
Washington -115
The smell of playoff hockey is in the air as teams stare down the last 6-8 games in the regular season. Despite what always appears to be a log jam in the standings come this time of year, we see that only a couple teams are legitimately fighting for the last playoff spots. In the Eastern Conference there are eight teams fighting for four spots (Detroit, NY Rangers, Philadelphia, Columbus, Washington, Toronto, New Jersey, and Ottawa). It really comes down to Columbus, Washington, Toronto, New Jersey, and Ottawa in my estimation. The other teams have separated themselves enough to control their own destiny.
In the Western Conference we see much of the same as the top teams (St. Louis, Anaheim, Chicago, San Jose, and Colorado) have already clinched playoff berths. The Los Angeles Kings are in that group as well with one more win needed to secure a playoff spot and Minnesota having a big enough lead for me to send them into the postseason. That leaves just one spot open in the Western Conference with Phoenix and Dallas battling it out for all the marbles. The good news for those teams is that they meet up in Phoenix to end the regular season Sunday, April 13.
Dallas comes into Washington tonight where both teams feel the desperate need to grab a point – preferably two. Dallas is riding a 4-1 streak whereas the Capitals have lost four of their last five. Teams that appear to be headed in different directions, but I am not ready to throw in the towel on the Capitals just yet. Washington’s power play is its lifeblood and they face a Stars penalty kill tonight that is 22nd in the NHL – they've let opponents capitalize on the PP with at least one goal in six of their last nine games. This is no doubt going to be a desperate effort from both teams tonight. You have to look at specific matchups in this scenario and I see a distinct advantage on the special teams tonight for Washington. Add in the fact Washington is on home ice and Dallas is a dreadful 15-21 away from home and we have the makings of plenty of value tonight. Take Washington at a cheap price.
SC Live Dogs
Arizona Diamondbacks -105
This game lies on the pitching. With a low total for Chase Field set at 8.5, the Bookmakers believe that one pitcher will have a better outing than the other and our money will be on Wade Miley and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Miley comes into this start after coming off of a very good spring training where he posted a 2.41 era through 18 innings with 4 BBs, 13 Ks while allowing 0 HRs. When we look at Miley’s first outings from 2012 & 2013, we can see that he looks to get the season off on the right foot where he allowed just 1 run through 10 innings on 8 Ks. Miley’s first start of the 2014 season came on March 22nd where he allowed 3 runs through 5 innings on 3 hits & 8 Ks. The Giants have a combined 110 ABs off of Miley but with little success as they hit .273 with just 1 HR off of Miley. Matt Cain, on the other hand, did not show much success during his spring training as he posted a 7.47 era through 15 innings on 6 BBs, 13 Ks and 2 HRs. When we look at Cains first starts of the 2012 & 2013 season, Cain allowed 5 runs through 12 innings on 10 hits, 2 BBs & 2 HRs. It is interesting to note that Cains debut of 2012 came AT Arizona where he allowed the 2 HRs. Cain made 1 start AT Arizona in 2013 where he allowed 4 runs through 6 innings on 5 hits, 4 BBs and 3 HRs. The Diamondbacks have shown good success against Cain as they have posted a .242 average with 7 HRs through a combined 252 ABs. With the Diamondbacks having already faced three aces in Clayton Kershaw, Bumgarner and Ryu, we will take our chances with them on Tuesday.
Playersbet
Houston/Brooklyn Under 210
We are going with the under in tonight's Nets/Rockets game as we have this total right around 204 points. We see this line coming down a little so grab 210 while you can. Head to head the over/under is 7-3, but tonight we are seeing the highest line ever between these two. We believe the lines-makers have made this line to high as we see the Nets controlling the tempo of this game and keeping this total in bay.
Calgary Flames at Toronto Maples Leafs
Play: Toronto Maples Leafs
Maple Leafs are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. Pacific and 20-6 in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. On the other hand Calgary is just 14-41 in their last 55 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Tom Barton
Toronto at Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa -155
Alex Cobb is a star in this league but people just don't know it yet. Cobb posted the 4th best ERA in the American League last season and yet most of the public wouldn't consider him an ace quite yet so let me tell you more. Cobb allowed more than 4 runs in exactly one game all year lst season and more than 3 just 3 times. He was spectacular in the playoffs as he went 12 innings against Boston and Cleveland allowing just 2 runs, both wins. In fact the Rays won each of his last 5 games to end the year and was an incredible 7-0 at home last year. The Jays already lost Jose Reyes in game one so that bat is out of the lineup today but Cobb also faced them last season pitching 6 innings allowing just one solo home run. The Jays will throw Hutchinson who missed almost 2 seasons and while he looked good in the spring that's still spring numbers. Cobb is a star and I'll take the better starter who excels at home.
SPORTS WAGERS
TAMPA BAY -1 -105 over Toronto
Yesterday we suggested that the Blue Jays may be an under the radar team and although it’s just one game, they looked like anything but. Poor fundamentals, hitting into rally-killing double plays, shaky fielding and missing pitches by a foot are only some of the things that hampered Toronto’s opener. Meanwhile, the Rays were aggressive at the plate, they had a serious game-plan to attack R.A. Dickey and from where we sit, Joe Maddon made John Gibbons look foolish. Drew Hutchison was one of the most impressive starters at spring training. He had a fantastic 19/4 K/BB in 15 IP as well as a 2:1 groundball/fly-ball ratio. Hutchison emerged as a solid prospect at age 20 in 2011 when he posted an outstanding 171/35 K/BB in 149 IP across three levels in the minors. Then he went under the knife for TJ surgery in late 2012 and rehabbed his elbow for most of 2013. Being just 23 years old, Hutchison has a high ceiling but facing a savvy Rays’ lineup on the road in his first start back is a play worth fading.
A.J. Cobb took a line drive off his head in June, which resulted in a mild concussion and a two-month absence. However, it didn't seem to affect his performance, as seven of his nine starts after his return were of the *pure quality start variety. The magnitude of Cobb’s breakout was a bit surprising but his strikeout rate/groundball % combo says it's legit. Overall last year, Cobb had a nifty 2.76 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. His base skills supported a near-3.00 ERA: 8.4 K’s per nine, 2.8 walks, and a 56% groundball rate. Cobb's success comes primarily due to his changeup, a pitch that generated a high 18% swinging strike rate and his curveball, a pitch that produced a crazy 74% GB%. It’s tempting to spot the 1½-runs and take back 40 cents here but we’ll go the safer route and spot a run.
*NOTE ABOUT PURE QUALITY STARTS:
The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
In pure quality starts, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts.
-The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a poor start unless he was injured.
-He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
-His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
-He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he gets a pure quality start, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
Cleveland +126 over OAKLAND
Scott Kazmir squares off against the team he pitched for last season, the Indians, in his first start as an Athletic. A 3.22 xERA, 9.7 K’s per nine and decent command in the second half of 2013 certainly grabbed the attention of Oakland, who greeted him with a two-year deal worth $22 million. However, Kazmir’s high fly-ball rate of 40% makes him susceptible to the long ball and the move to Oakland (RHB HR -9%) doesn't help him as much as you might think, as Progressive Field in Cleveland suppresses RHB HR by 25%. There is also damage potential to any pitcher that allows too many walks and Kazmir is bordering on trouble in that area. Kazmir is a high risk/high reward pitcher, meaning we’ll be happy to back him as a pooch but not as the chalk this early. Additionally, the A’s didn’t score yesterday and that’s not the way any player or team wants to start off the year, as it often gets tougher at the plate the next day after putting up a bunch of goose eggs.
Corey Kluber’s skills are on positive trends. His strikeout rate, command and groundball rate are up and his xERA says more growth ahead. He did skirt some line-drive danger and his past includes ample base runners, but Kluber’s second half dominant start/disaster split says he was grooving despite losing time to a strained finger. Kluber’s 5.60 spring ERA has many backing off him this early but we’re not following suit. His spring skills were really strong with 7.6 K’s per nine, outstanding control and a spring xERA of 2.98. Breakout targets don't get much better than Kluber and we’re glad to be backing him and the Indians here at a price.
SPORTS WAGERS
New Jersey -½ -103 over BUFFALO
Regulation only. The Sabres have allowed 16 goals against in their past four games. They’ve also allowed four goals or more in six of their last 10. Buffalo has scored one goal or less in eight of its past 12 and will now face a Devils team that gives up very few scoring opportunities. With 11 losses in their past 12 games and with weak goaltending by two back-ups, Buffalo is in no position to compete with the Devils here.
New Jersey played Florida last night and won 6-3 but allowed just 22 shots on net. The Panthers scored three times but that’s only because Marty Brodeur was in net. Tonight, Cory Schneider gets the call. The Devils have allowed 27 shots on net or fewer in six straight and will no doubt stick to that strategy again here. New Jersey can make a huge move with a victory here, as they sit a point behind Toronto, two points behind Washington and just three behind Columbus for the final playoff spot. The Devils can potentially leapfrog over two teams tonight while a loss would be absolutely devastating. The Devils have played their best hockey all season in the second game of back-to-backs. In fact, the Devils have picked up points in 14 of 19 games in the tail end of these back-to-back situations and as a cheap favorite in this scenario they are very worthy of spotting a half puck against the lifeless Sabres.
Dallas +101 over WASHINGTON
Regulation only. Is there any difference between the Capitals and the Maple Leafs? Yes, there is, as Toronto’s goaltending is better. Washington has dropped four of its last five games with only win over that span occurring against San Jose in a game the Caps were outshot 36-25. The Capitals last win prior to that came in Anaheim in a game they were outshot 45-30. Against Los Angeles, Boston and Nashville in its last three games, the Caps were outshot in all of them and allowed four goals or more in all of them. The Caps, like the Maple Leafs, spend most of their games in their own end and as a result they’re losing games like they should be. With seven games remaining, the Caps are on the outside looking in at a Wild Card spot and that doesn’t figure to change here. The Capitals 25 regulation and OT wins (excluding shootouts) rank ahead of only the Islanders, Florida, Buffalo and Edmonton. This is a weak hockey team and the weak almost always fade away this time of year.
Meanwhile, Dallas has won four of its last five with only loss over that span occurring against Chicago. Both these teams recently played Nashville. Washington lost in Nashville on Sunday, 4-3 while the Stars whacked the Preds 7-3 this past Friday. Dallas followed that up with an impressive 4-2 win in St. Louis on Saturday. The Stars have scored 11 times over their past two games. They are a point out of a playoff spot behind Phoenix but Dallas has a game in hand on the Coyotes. Phoenix hosts Winnipeg tonight. Huge game with playoff ramifications for both teams but at the end of the day, we not only get the West vs. East angle, we also get the vastly superior team in much better form and that’s a wager we’ll make almost every time.
Calgary +129 over TORONTO
Regulation only. One has to figure that the Maple Leafs are going to play a decent game tonight. After losing its eighth straight game on Saturday, this time to the Red Wings in a crucial game on Saturday night, the Leafs have been roasted over the coals by the media, fans and every radio and TV show that covers hockey in Canada. A response is in order, much like the Canucks response after that infamous meltdown against the Islanders. It’s a similar situation but the Maple Leafs are not the Canucks and this one is not about a Maple Leaf response.
How ironic is it that Brian Burkes’ Calgary Flames can put the final proverbial nail in the Maple Leafs coffin? You can be 100% guaranteed that Burke has already or will address his players regarding how important this game is to him. For Brian Burke, a win here that will unofficially knock the Leafs out of the playoffs, will be the sweetest victory of the season by a wide margin. This is Brian Burke’s “Stanley Cup” game and he’ll make it known to his players how important it is to win because there is not a bigger ego-maniac in the NHL than Burke. So, as much as the Leafs figure to respond, so, too, will the Flames. Calgary will not get outworked, they will make fewer mistakes and they’ll go after every loose puck like their life depends on it. That’s not out of character either, as Calgary has been playing that way for many weeks now. Yeah, this game is a tossup for sure but Calgary has at least a 50% chance of winning because the Maple Leafs are much sloppier and they feel like a defeated team right now. Every player in that Flames locker room knows how much their GM wants this one (Burke probably threw in some incentives) and they’ll work their tails off to get it.
Pass NBA & CBB
Michael Alexander
Houston Rockets vs. Brooklyn Nets
Play: Brooklyn Nets -3
The Brooklyn Nets seek a franchise-record 14th straight home win tonight. Brooklyn entered Monday with a chance to wrap up a playoff berth in the Eastern Conference with a New York loss in Utah, or it can do the trick with a win over the Rockets, whose magic number to clinch a spot in the West is three. The Nets' run at the Barclays Center continued with a 114-99 win over Minnesota on Sunday, matching Oklahoma City's NBA-high 13-game run at home earlier this season.
Brandon Shively
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Portland Trail Blazers -8.5
I like Portland in this spot tonight. Portland has fell out of favor with the public and the linesmakers and Portland needs every win they can get to get the #4 seed in the West. Currently and #5 seed, they would be scheduled to play San Antonio or Oklahoma City in the first round. We know and they know that's not what they want. I like the momentum Portland is playing with as they are on a 3 game winning streak, including double digits win in their last two road games. I also like the motivation for this game as well as the Lakers beat Portland on 3/03 as a 12 point dog at their own house. Portland will be locked in for this game and with a 2 day break ahead, they have no reason to let up in this game. I look for the Trailblazers to run up the score on an undermanned Laker team that has the worst defense in the West. The Lakers don't care who scores as long as somebody scores. Their problem is they don't have enough scorers on their team to keep up. The Lakers are coming off a surprising 115-99 win vs. Phoenix on Sunday as a 9.5 point home dog. Phoenix couldn't hit the broad side of a barn (38% 2 PT FG and 22% 3 PT FG) while the Lakers couldn't miss. Kaman had the game of his life with 28 points as the Suns had no interior defense. I look for the 'bounce' factor to be in effect tonight as this is still a Laker team that in my opinion as a lineup that is just as bad as Philly. Portland will not overlook the Lakers either. Again, this is a revenge game for them after losing on their homecourt . They are also well-aware that the Lakers just beat Phoenix and the Knicks on their homecourt. I would like to look at stats over the last 5 games by both teams. Portland's defense has picked up a notch as they are holding opponents to 89 ppg and 42% shooting from the floor. As for the Lakers, opponents are shooting 50% from the floor vs. them. I will add that the Lakers are shooting 50% from the floor in these 5 games and I will call for a 'bounce' factor to be in effect tonight as the Laker's can't keep up these high shooting percentages. Looking closer, the Lakers have played some teams that don't like to play defense their last 5 games. Phoenix, Minnesota, Milwaukee, Ny Knicks, and Orlando. It will be totally different playing Portland tonight as they are looking to improve their playoff positioning and their defensive intensity is evident. Look for a comfortable win by 13+ points tonight. Play on Portland Trailblazers