Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday April, 10

Marc Lawrence

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
Prediction: San Diego Padres

The Padres and Diamondbacks open a three game series at Petco Park in San Diego Tuesday evening when Edinson Volquez matches serves with Trevor Cahill in a matchup of former aces residing on new teams this season. Volquez had a strong spring camp for the Padres going 2-0 with a 3.48 ERA, while posting a WHIP of 1.11. On the other side of the coin, Cahill was punched hard throughout spring, going 0-3 with a 4.86 ERA. The feeling here is Volquez will love hurling in pitcher's park in San Diego this season as opposed to the hitter's park he leaves behind in Cincinnati. We recommend a 1-unit play on San Diego.

Vegas Experts

New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls
Play: New York Knicks

Bulls are a big favorite here at home revenging that tough overtime loss against the Knicks on Easter Sunday, and while we expect the Bulls to win outright we'll take the generous points here. Knicks have covered 12 of their last 15 games overall, including a SU loss but ATS cover here in Chicago to start that streak. Bulls offense still struggling, and they can't win this one in a blowout.

Rob Vinciletti

Knicks vs. Bulls
Play: Over 186.5

This game fits a totals system that has cashed 14 of the last 16 times and plays to the over for home teams that scored 90 or more as a road favorite of 4 or less with a total that was 180 or higher and shot 45% or less vs an opponent that scored 90 or more as a home dog of 4 or less. These two teams both shot under 40% in the first game of the back to back home and home series on Sunday at the Garden. In that game over time is what pushed the game over. The Bulls were adapting to the return of D. Rose and looked out of sync early in the game and were done in by missed free throws and the late heroics of Carmelo Anthony. Tonight both teams should shoot much better. The Bulls have gone over in 3 of 4 this month and the Knicks 2 of 3 the last here in April. These two teams played here in Mid March and the Posted total was 198.5.

Dave Cokin

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets
Pick: Washington Nationals

Great start for the Mets, but the unbeaten streak might end here. Ross Detwiler beats Dillon Gee in most of my key categories and I'm looking for the Nationals to deal the Mets their first loss tonight.

Jim Feist

Bobcats vs Cavaliers
Pick: Under

Charlotte winds down a lost season and is in the second of a back to back spot. This offense is terrible, amd the under is 8-2 in the Bobcats last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The under is also 9-1 in Bobcats last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400. The Cavaliers' offense has struggled since losing star rookie PG Kyrie Irving and the under is 4-1 in the Cavaliers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. And when these teams meet, the under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Cleveland. Play the Bobcats/Cavaliers under the total.

EZWINNERS

St. Louis Cardinals -101

The Cardinals starting pitcher Kyle Lohse took a no-hitter into the seventh inning of his Opening Day win against the Marlins and I expect him to pitch well in this road start at Cincinnati. The Reds starting pitcher Mike Leake had a 5.14 ERA during the spring and has a career 6.97 ERA vs. St. Louis. The Cardinals are off to a nice start this season and St. Louis is 10-4 in Lohse's last fourteen starts going back to last season. Play on St. Louis.

Jeff Scott Sports

2 UNIT PLAY

Detroit/ Tampa Bay Over 8.5: Matt Moore was brought up late last year and looked like a solid pitcher. Moore went 1-0 last year with a 2.89 ERA allowing nine hits and three earned runs while striking out 15 in 9.1 innings of work. He will not have an easy time in his first start of the 2012 season as he takes on a Detroit Tigers team that is just Killing the ball right now as they hit .336 and scored 26 runs in their opening series vs Boston. Tampa Bay wasn't a slouch on offense as they scored 18 runs on .296 hitting vs the Yanks over the weekend. Rick Porcello hasn't faced the Rays since 2010 and he has a 3.46 ERA vs them in 2 starts, but Comerica Park is not a place that he has pitched well in as he has a 4.59 ERA in 44 career starts here, including a 5.75 ERA in this park last year. Rick is also a slow starter with a 6.04 ERA in 14 career starts in March/ April. This game has too much offense and not enough pitching to think that these teams can't hit at least 9 runs.

More later

JR O'Donnell

Cincinnati -110

Jr O Doubles Up & Doubles Down with a strong Tuesday MLB members move to the Leake led 2-2 Reds tonight over Lohse at the Great American Ball Park........ Quiet & Solid 8-5 62% +6.40 units this short Mlb season.......... Power Rated @ -137 for the Reds .. Lohse who is a solid 1-0 & 1.23 ERA will CRASH back to earth tonight ... he checks in @ 2-3 with a 3.86 ERA in seven starts against his former club since joining the Cards in 2008. Vegas respect to the home team tonight as no doubt about it the Cards are killing the Rock so far.... 31 runs.... 9 dingers ... .317 BA... REDS SHOCK THE WORLD CHAMPS TONIGHT

SPORTS WAGERS

BALTIMORE +121 over N.Y. Yankees

The Yanks are overpriced on most days and we see another example of that here. Freddy Garcia as road chalk is an automatic fade almost every time. While it looks like Garcia’s ERA improved, thank a high strand percentage (76%) for that. Garcia’s xERA shows the skills were similar to 2010 in which he posted an ERA of 4.64. At this middling level, that's not a good thing. He's lost velocity each of the past three years, the dominant starts are dwindling, and line-drive % is creeping up. Those are signs that Garcia is too big a risk. Wei-Yin Chen is a wildcard and probably a low-upside one at that. He was a good pitcher in Japan, but might profile more as a lefty soft-tosser at this level. He showed excellent command during spring, which is a trademark of Japanese pitchers and overall he went 2-2 in 20 spring innings with an ERA of 3.60. Let’s call it what it is. This is both teams’ fifth starter. They are both risky but the difference here is that Chen has not been seen, he’s taking back a tag, the Orioles are 3-1 and batting .295 and they’re at home. Play: Baltimore +121 (Risking 2 units).

Kansas City +106 over OAKLAND

The battle for fifth starter for the A’s came down to Jarrod Parker and Graham Godfrey and Godfrey won out by way of elimination because Parker was that bad. Godfrey is a sinkerball pitcher that had a low ERA and good command at AAA. He made a few starts as an injury replacement for the big club last season and while he got his feet wet he didn't really see enough time to be tested. At this point, he's spring training rotation fodder after allowing 19 hits and 10 runs in 17 spring innings for an ERA of 5.09. Danny Duffy had a 5.64 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 105 IP with KC in 2011 so his value is low. His skills with KC weren't great but they were encouraging and he has the arsenal to be a good one. Armed with a 93 mph fastball, he's no lefty soft-tosser. Duffy has been working on a cut fastball this spring and as a result, he struck out 17 in 15 spring innings while walking just four. Duffy could be a big time sleeper and against the light hitting A’s in a pitchers park, he has a great chance to succeed. Play: Kansas City +106 (Risking 2 units).

**BPV (Base Performance Value)

This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors. In tandem with a pitcher's strand rate, it provides a complete picture of the elements that contribute to a pitcher's ERA, and therefore serves as an accurate tool to project likely changes in ERA. BENCHMARKS: A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.

Wunderdog

Magic @ Wizards
Pick: Under 195

The Orlando Magic have had a lot of controversy surrounding their coach, and star player Dwight Howard. It is doubtful that they will be motivated here, and that may lead to one of their offensive lapses. Those lapses have seen them score 80 or less eight times on the season. The Wizards found some offense vs. Charlotte, but the Bobcats are the worst team in the league. Prior to their 113 against the "Badcats" the Wizards haven't tasted the century mark in each of their prior 11 games, and just one time in their last 18. This is a pretty tall total considering the offensive lapses of the Magic, and the lack of punch by the Wizards. Orlando comes into this one at 17-6 to the UNDER in their last 23 without rest. Play this one UNDER the total

Sean Murphy

Boston @ Miami
PICK: Miami -7

I'll back the Heat in a clear revenge spot on Tuesday night.

Miami was embarrassed in a 91-72 rout at the hands of the Celtics in Boston back on April 1st.

We've seen the Heat make some adjustments since, inserting Ronny Turiaf into the starting lineup in place of Joel Anthony, while shaking things up as far as the bench goes, giving Terrel Harris more playing time at the expense of Norris Cole.

Not only that, but the Heat have welcomed Mike Miller back from injury, and saw the re-emergence of James Jones in Sunday's rout of the Pistons. All in all, it seems that things are looking up again for the Heat right now.

Miami has certainly been able to step it up against elite opponents here at home this season, and has had its way with Boston on this floor over the last year-and-a-half. The Heat are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five home meetings with the Celtics, winning each of those games by at least eight points.

The Celtics gained an ounce of revenge themselves, beating the 76ers 103-79 on Sunday night. We cashed with the C's on that night, but we'll switch gears on Tuesday.

Despite Boston's recent surge, it remains 12-14-1 ATS on the road this season. With a three-game lead atop the Atlantic Division with only 10 games to play, there isn't a real sense of urgency right now, especially after that win over the 76ers. With that being said, I'm not convinced they can match the Heat's intensity on this night.

Jack Jones

Dallas Mavericks -9

Clinging to one of the final three playoff spots in the Western Conference, the Dallas Mavericks are not about to take any opponent lightly the rest of the way. Off back-to-back losses, I look for the Mavericks to bounce back with a blowout victory over the Sacramento Kings Tuesday.

At 31-26, Dallas is just one game ahead of ninth-place Phoenix and 1.5 games clear of tenth-place Utah. There's no question that there is a sense of urgency for this team right now. Whatever Dallas has inside of them, they'll be laying it all on the line over these final nine games.

The Mavericks could not be facing a more ideal opponents than the Kings tonight. Dallas will be going for a 16th consecutive home win over Sacramento tonight. No. 15 in a row came with a 99-60 home victory over the Kings on January 14th. Sacramento is just 2-9 SU & 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

Dallas comes in well-rested having not played since Saturday. The Mavericks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 2 days rest. Sacramento is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the Kings are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 meetings in Dallas. Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.

Steve Janus

Boston Celtics +7

The Celtics come into tonight's huge showdown against the Heat having won 9 of their last 12 games, which included a 91-72 win at home over Miami. Boston is playing at a whole different level right now. If the Celtics continue to play like this the rest of the way, they could surprise everyone and make another run at an NBA Championship.

There is no question that the Heat are going to come into this game with some serious revenge on their mind, but with the way Boston is playing defensively I can't see them turning this game into a blowout. The Celtics defense knows how to contain LeBron James and it will only help matters that Dwayne Wade is playing on a bum ankle.

The Celtics are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games overall and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. On the other hand, Miami is just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

Jimmy Boyd

Magic/Wizards UNDER 196

Orlando's 30-point win over Detroit and Washington's 28-point win over Charlotte last night sets up a solid under opportunity.

Plays under on any team off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, provided they are matched up against an opponent off a road win by 10 points or more, are 89-43 (67%) since 1996. We have only see an average of 190.0 total points scored in this situation.

In addition, plays under on any team after a huge blowout win by 30 or more against an opponent that led in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 35-8 (81%) since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation have combined for just 185.5 total points.

It's also important to note that plays under on all teams when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points after a blowout win by 20 points or more and up against an opponent that lead in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 48-17 (74%) since 1996. We've see just 186.8 total points in this situation.

The under is 17-6 in Orlando's last 23 games when playing without a day of rest. It is also 43-21-1 in the Wizards' last 65 games as a home underdog. We'll bet the Under.