Craig Trapp
Arizona vs. Los Angeles
Play: Over 8
Only a lackluster last year at the plate for ARI has this total so low. Not a problem this year for ARI, in fact the totals are averaging 11 per game in the 6 games this year. Only once this year has ARI not reached 9 runs per game and that game they totaled 8! LAD on the other side have totaled an average of 11.5 runs per game and have not gone under this total but once this season. Kershaw was beat up pretty good in first outing and really struggled with control. Kennedy was not much better in his first start either. These two pitchers will be pitching with runners in scoring position all game, which will lead to a bunch of runs. This one looks like a 6-5 game to me easily going over the listed total!
Tom Freese
Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Utah Jazz
Utah is looking to improve their seeding. The Jazz are led in scoring by Power Forward Carlos Boozer and his 19.7 points and 11.3 rebounds. Point Guard Deron Williams scores 18.7 points and 10.6 assists a game. The Jazz score 105.4 points a game. Utah is 8-2 ATS their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record and they are 10-4 their last 14 games as road favorites. Golden St is just playing out the string. They are led in scoring by Monte Ellis who is playing hurt he scores 25.5 points a game. Small Forward Corey Maggette scores 19.8 points a game. The Warriors score 108.8 points a game. Golden St is 30-61-1 ATS their last 93 games off a straight up win and they are 3-8 ATS their last 11 meetings with Jazz. PLAY ON UTAH -
Ben Burns
Colorado Avalanche @ San Jose Sharks
PICK: San Jose Sharks -240
The Sharks are the biggest favorite on the Wednesday hockey board. However, I feel that the price could easily be even higher. One of the things keeping the price in somewhat reasonable territory (It's still very expensive but teams like Washington and Chicago are currently laying even more on Thursday) is the fact that the Sharks have a less than stellar playoff history. Indeed, seemingly every year they enter the playoffs as one of the favorites, only to get upset in one of the opening rounds. That's all in the past though and I believe this will prove to be a very favorable matchup for them.
While that history is helping to keep the line down, (slightly) I expect it to have a motivating effect on the Sharks. They lost last year's playoff opener (2-0 loss to Anaheim) and ended up losing the series. They know that they absolutely cannot afford to get behind the eight ball again.
The Sharks won 27 of 41 home games this season. On the other hand, the Avalanche won 19 of 41 road games. Colorado got off to a very quick start this season but has been largely mediocre ever since. The Sharks had a couple of tough stretches, but were mostly dominant for the entire season.
The Avs can score goals. However, they don't score as many as the Sharks. San Jose finished with an average of 3.2 goals per game, including a whopping 3.5 per game at home. Colorado finished with 3.0 per game, including 2.9 on the road. The Sharks averaged 33.6 shots per game at home. The Avs averaged a mere 25.8 on the road.
The Sharks also have the edge in terms of goals against. San Jose limited opponents to 2.6 goals per game, including just 2.4 at home. Colorado allowed an average of 2.8, including 3.1 on the road.
Some may suggest that the Avs have the advantage in goal. I don't believe that's the case though. Yes, Anderson had a strong season. However, he wasn't great down the stretch and San Jose's Nabakov is coming off arguably his best season. The Sharks' netminder finished second in the league in wins (44), 6th in save percentage (.922) and 10th in goals-against-average (2.43).
The home team won all four regular season meetings. Including their two wins here, the Sharks are now 4-0 the last four times that they hosted the Avs. Looking back further and we find them at 6-1 the last seven times that they were a host in this series and 10-3 the last 13. I expect them to win both the opening game and the series. Consider laying the wood.
Gregg Price
Cincinnati Reds vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Cincinnati Reds
We like Bronson Arroyo here. Both pitchers looked good in their debuts, but Arroyo's was more impressive. Anyone can look good against the Mets. Usually the Reds weakness is pitching, but they have hung in there so far. Check out the Living Legend's packages, he has some great deals. This is a very profitable time of the year.
Hollywood Sports
Pittsburgh at San Francisco
Prediction: Under
Play Under the Total in the Pirates-Giants game as it shapes up to be a pitching duel. San Fran's Matt Cain was dominant last season with his 2.89 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. But Cain allowed three runs on 6 2/3 innings of work in his first start in Houston. He should pitch better back in the friendly confines of AT&T Park. The Pirates send out Paul Maholm who was roughed up pretty good in his first start against the Dodgers by allowing four runs in six innings. But left-handed starters struggle against the strong Dodgers' lineup that includes right-handed sluggers Manny Ramirez and Matt Kemp. Maholm typically pitches much better against the less-potent lineups of the league -- and the Giants were 13th in the National League last season in run scored. Maholm enjoyed a 2.57 ERA along with a 0.93 WHIP in two starts last season against San Francisco. With both these starting pitchers due for a good outing, take the Under.
Jimmy the Moose
Rays vs. Orioles
Play: Under 9
Prior to last night's meeting between the clubs the Rays were batting .260 as a team. Tampa opened the season with 3 games vs. the Orioles and all 3 games played under the total. Tampa then faced the Yankees for 3 games and all 3 of those played the over before facing the Orioles again last night and again playing under the total. The under is 4-3 for Tampa with all 4 unders coming against the Orioles. The under is 8-1 in the Rays last 9 games as a favorite. The under is a profitable 6-1 in the Orioles 7 games this season. As a team the Orioles are hitting a lousy .239 and the offense hasn't started to click yet. Matusz takes the mound tonight and Baltimore played under the total in his first start of the season. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts dating back to last season. All 4 meetings between the clubs have played under the total and the under is a profitable 7-0 in the last 7 games between the clubs. Look for another low scoring game in Baltimore tonight. Play the Rays/Orioles Under
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Golden State Warriors +7.5
The Warriors are having fun and playing well as a result down the stretch. They enter tonight's home finale having won 6 of their last 10 and I expect them to give the Jazz a run for the money in this one. Utah absolute destroyed the Warriors 2 weeks ago so this game will be about revenge for Golden State. The Warriors have frequently been a home dog in recent seasons and they have thrived for backers in that role. In fact, they are 49-19-2 ATS in their last 70 games as a home underdog and 35-12-4 ATS in their last 51 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. They are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. I'll take Golden State and the points here tonight.
DUNKEL INDEX
Sacramento at LA Lakers
The Kings look to build on their 7-1-1 ATS record in their last 9 games as a road underdog. Sacramento is the pick (+9 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by only 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+9 1/2)
Game 701-702: Boston at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 118.976; Chicago 121.338
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 2 1/2; 202
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 703-704: Utah at Golden State
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 124.422; Golden State 115.017
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 9 1/2; 238
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 7 1/2; 232 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-7 1/2); Over
Game 705-706: Denver at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 119.783; Phoenix 126.406
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 6 1/2; 220
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 6; 216
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-6); Over
Game 707-708: Sacramento at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 113.020; LA Lakers 121.543
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 8 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 9 1/2; 198 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+9 1/2); Under
MLB
Tampa Bay at Baltimore
The Rays look to build on their 10-1 record in Jeff Niemann's last 11 starts during game 2 of a series. Tampa Bay is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-120)
Game 901-902: Arizona at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Kennedy) 15.582; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.442
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-175); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+155); Under
Game 903-904: Cincinnati at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 15.279; Florida (Robertson) 15.021
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Florida (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+100); Over
Game 905-906: NY Mets at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Maine) 15.392; Colorado (Smith) 14.444
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Colorado (-150); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+130); Over
Game 907-908: Pittsburgh at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Maholm) 14.943; San Francisco (Cain) 15.108
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-200); Over
Game 909-910: Kansas City at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Bannister) 14.990; Detroit (Willis) 14.685
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+125); Over
Game 911-912: LA Angels at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 15.893; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.600
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-180); 10
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+160); Over
Game 913-914: Tampa Bay at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Niemann) 15.196; Baltimore (Matusz) 14.189
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-120); Under
Game 915-916: Chicago White Sox at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 15.476; Toronto (Romero) 16.026
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-120); Over
Game 917-918: Oakland at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Anderson) 15.718; Seattle (Fister) 15.173
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-135); Under
John Ryan
Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns
Play: Denver Nuggets +6
3* graded play on Denver as they take on Phoenix in NBA action set to start at 10:35 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Denver will lose this game by fewer than 6 points. This game has big time importance for both teams. Dallas has secured the number 2 spot in the Western Conference. Denver needs a win tonight to win the NBA Northwest division. Denver hasn’t won in US Airways Center in their last 10 tries. Phoenix needs to win tonight and then at Utah to secure the 3 seed. Denver is a solid 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing against teams winning between 60% to 70% of their games and with the game taking place in the 2nd half of the season for the last 2 seasons. Denver is also 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Take the Nuggets.
Black Widow
1* on Sacramento Kings +8
With the Lakers already having wrapped up the #1 seed in the Western Conference, they are going to sit Kobe Bryant for the final two games to allow him to rest. Sacramento will be able to stay with L.A. tonight without Bryant out there. L.A. has been just going through the motions lately, losing 6 of their last 9 games overall. Sacramento is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in road games after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons. The Kings will be looking forward to visiting the defending champs with a chance to end their season on a positive note by knocking off the Lakers in the Staples Center. Take Sacramento and the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Toronto Blue Jays -107
Bottom Line: After a loss to the Sox in game 1, look for the Jays to bounce back strong tonight. Toronto is 13-3 in all games against the White Sox over the last 3 season, including 8-1 at home. Romero was sensational in his first start of the season, and I'll give him the edge against Floyd here. The White Sox are 1-6 in Floyd's last 7 starts and 0-5 in his last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Blue Jays are also 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite. Take the Jays.
Dave Price
1 Unit on New York Mets +140
Plain and simple, this is a solid value bet. The Mets have taken 8 of the last 11 in this series and they are showing good value in the underdog role tonight behind Maine, who is 5-0 against the money line in his last 5 starts during game 1 of a series. The Rockies are 0-6 in their last 6 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 as well. We'll bet the Mets at a nice price.
Jack Jones
Florida Marlins -119
Big advantage on the mound tonight for Florida. Nate Robertson has only faced the Reds once in his career, pitching 7.3 scoreless innings while striking out seven. Since the Reds have only seen him once, he should have his way with them again. Meanwhile, Bronson Arroyo has faced Florida 5 times in his career, coming away with a 1-4 record. No question that the Marlins have the advantage having seen Arroyo more. Robertson gave up just 1 earned run in a 3-1 victory at the N.Y. Mets to open the season.
This play also falls under a system that is 280-147 (66%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road teams (CINCINNATI) - where team's hitters strike out 7 or more times/game on the season against opponent starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing. Robertson has shown much better control throughout the spring and into the regular season, offering much fewer free passes. Take Florida.
Info Plays
3* on Utah Jazz -7
Reasons why the Jazz cover:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home underdogs (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off a close home win by 3 points or less. This is a 23-4 ATS System hitting 85% since 1996. The Jazz are 2-0 against the Warriors this season, winning by 24 and 11 points, respectively.
2.) Utah (52-28) is in a four-team race for the No. 2 seed in the conference and is battling Denver for the Northwest crown. The Jazz conclude the season at home against Phoenix on Wednesday night. With so much still to play for, Utah will not be taking the Warriors lightly tonight. Bet the Jazz on the road.
Glenn McGrew
Celtics at Bulls
For the things they’ve lacked — defensive rhythm, consistent focus, respect for teams with fewer than 30 wins — the Celtics have a chance to go into the postseason with arguably the most important element — health. Doc Rivers was strict about allotting minutes, allowing no one to play more than Rondo’s 36.6 a night and limiting Garnett to 29.9. The Celtics can pull into a tie for the No. 3 seed with the Hawks, so there is reason to play. The Bulls have lost two of the last three meetings with the Celtics and Boston is catching plenty of points. Play the Celtics!