Jeff Benton
Still on a 19-5 free-play hot streak despite Monday’s loser on the Nets. Beyond that, I’m on runs of 58-27-2 and 45-20-2 with plays that I’m giving away!
For Tuesday, I’ll take a shot with the Warriors plus the points at home against Utah. Obviously, this game means more to the Jazz (who are fighting for playoff positioning) than the Warriors (whose playoff hopes were dashed months ago). However, you could’ve said the same thing leading into Sunday night’s game in Golden State, when the Warriors took down the playoff-bound Thunder 120-117 as a 7½-point underdog – an absolutely killer loss for Oklahoma City, which is now slotted to face the Lakers in the first round.
It’s not so much that the Warriors are eager to play spoiler (although that’s part of it), but they’ve got a lot of young kids (led by Rookie of the Year candidate Stehpen Curry) who are simply trying to get better. Golden State has won six of its last 10 games (both SU and ATS), and more impressive than that, it is on a 15-8 spread-covering streak, going 9-1 ATS at home.
Also, no team plays the “disrespect” card quite like the Warriors, who after Sunday’s upset of the Thunder are 49-19-2 ATS in their last 70 games as a home underdog and 35-12-4 ATS in their last 51 when catching five to 10½ points at home. And with this being the home finale – FYI, Golden State has one of the most underrated crowds in the NBA – I fully expect an inspired, 48-minute effort from the Warriors. And if the Jazz (just 3-5 ATS in their last eight) aren’t careful, they’re going to suffer the same fate the Thunder did when they went to Golden State on Sunday night.
5♦ GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Stephen Nover
I won both of my complementary selections on Monday cashing with the Cubs against the Brewers and on the Hawks against the Bucks in the NBA. I am 13-6 on the season on all of my 2009 baseball selections - both free and paid.
The New York Mets are residing in last place in the NL East. That hasn't happened to them since 2005.
The bad thing is the 2-4 Mets played their first six games at home. Already the New York media is calling this a crucial series for the Mets.
Crucial is too strong of a word. I mean c'mon this is just the second week of the season! But the Mets will be taking this matchup seriously following an off day yesterday, which allowed them to reflect on a horrendous Sunday loss to the Nationals. Washington's Livan Hernandez out-pitched Johan Santana, a -$2.50 favorite in that matchup.
Getting out of New York for the next six games is probably the best thing for the Mets. They've had a day to clear their heads. Jose Reyes is back and has had two games to get off the rust.
The biggest thing the Mets have going for them in this matchup is facing a rusty Greg Smith. He didn't pitch in the majors last season because of various aliments. He did make three minor league stops last year and turned in a very unimpressive 6.57 ERA.
Smith was roughed up in his 2009 debut by Milwaukee this past Tuesday. He allowed five earned runs in five innings with the Brewers smacking two homers and a double off him.
The Mets are going with John Maine, who also is on the comeback trail after missing three months last year with shoulder problems. None of the Rockies are very familiar with Maine. Todd Helton and Miguel Olivo have seen Maine the most and they have just eight at bats against him.
Some are doubting that Maine's full velocity is back. Maine disagrees. We'll see. But I'll take him over Smith, especially at this 'dog price.
There's a chance the Rockies could be without center fielder and leadoff hitter Carlos Gonzalez. He injured his hamstring in the Rockies' last game and is day-to-day. Gonzalez has at least one RBI or run in each of Colorado's first six games.
The Rockies need Gonzalez because another of their promising outfielders, Dexter Fowler, is slumping. Fowler is just 4-for-18.
This is a night game. All of Colorado's victories this season have come in day games so far.
1♦ METS
Scott Delaney
Tampa Bay at Baltimore
Jeff Niemann will be out for avenge last week’s start against the Orioles and Brian Matusz, as these two met last Thursday night. His season debut was reduced to 12 pitches by a line drive off the bat of Miguel Tejeda.
He threw a bullpen session on Sunday, and reportedly looked good in doing so. His arsenal will work just fine against a Baltimore team that has scored only 20 runs through seven games, and just three over the last three contests.
Last Thursday, Matusz turned in five innings of two-run baseball and struck out seven Rays en route to Baltimore's first win of 2010, he still walked a career-high five batters over the first 3-1/3 innings and wasn’t exactly in control of his pitches.
And since Tampa Bay has won 15 of 22 games in Baltimore thanks to a .283 batting average and 26 homers, I don’t see any issue with the Rays getting it done in Game 2 of this series. Carl Crawford powered the Rays to a 5-1 win over the Orioles in last night’s series opener, going 4 for 4 with a double and a solo shot. Crawford is 6 for 14 with four RBIs in four games against Baltimore this season.
Take the road team here.
2♦ RAYS
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on the Boston Celtics. I will often times (not always) go against the team that NEEDS the win more. There is simply too much emphasis on the Bulls playing better when their playoff lives are on the line, and since this game is in Chicago, oddsmakers had no choice but to bump the line a little. Since Boston can't help themselves with a win or a loss tonight, I think you're going to see a "looser" effort from the Celtics tonight, and I wouldn't doubt for a minute their defense will suffocate the younger Bulls for four quarters. Paul Pierce probably won't play tonight, but don't be surprised to see the rest of the starters in the lineup to make sure they are all on the same page before they get to the post-season. I like Boston getting points pretty much anytime I can get them.
2♦ BOSTON