Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, April 16

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Arizona at NY Yankees
The Diamondbacks look to take advantage of a Yankees team that is 0-4 in Ivan Nova's last 4 starts in Game 1 of a series. Arizona is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Diamondbacks favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+120)

Game 951-952: St. Louis at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Westbrook) 16.068; Pittsburgh (Sanchez) 16.468
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+130); Over

Game 953-954: Washington at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Haren) 15.452; Miami (Sanabia) 13.682
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-165); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-165); Under

Game 955-956: Philadelphia at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Kendrick) 15.162; Cincinnati (Bailey) 14.578
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+125); Over

Game 957-958: San Francisco at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 16.447; Milwaukee (Peralta) 14.511
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 2; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-120); Under

Game 959-960: NY Mets at Colorado (8:40 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Laffey) 15.220; Colorado (Francis) 16.215
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-150); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-150); Under

Game 961-962: San Diego at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Marquis) 14.860; LA Dodgers (Capuano) 14.500
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-185); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+165); Over

Game 963-964: Chicago White Sox at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Axelrod) 15.186; Toronto (Johnson) 14.539
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+130); Under

Game 965-966: Boston at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Doubront) 15.817; Cleveland (Jimenez) 14.629
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+100); Over

Game 967-968: Tampa Bay at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Hernandez) 15.731; Baltimore (Arrieta) 15.182
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+100); Under

Game 969-970: LA Angels at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Vargas) 13.574; Minnesota (Pelfrey) 15.303
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+110); Over

Game 971-972: Houston at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Peacock) 13.791; Oakland (Griffin) 17.074
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 3 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-210); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-210); Over

Game 973-974: Detroit at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Fister) 15.391; Seattle (Harang) 15.790
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+120); Under

Game 975-976: Arizona at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (McCarthy) 15.830; NY Yankees (Nova) 15.361
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+120); Under

Game 977-978: Kansas City at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Guthrie) 15.243; Atlanta (Medlen) 17.574
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-185); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-185); Over

Game 979-980: Texas at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Holland) 14.773; Cubs (Wood) 14.920
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-135); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+115); N/A

Game 981-982: NY Mets at Colorado (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Gee) 15.479; Colorado (Nicasio) 15.162
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-135); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+115); Over

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston Red Sox at Cleveland IndiansFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Cleveland IndiansFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When the Tribe sends erratic Ubaldo Jimenez to the mound against the Red Sox at Progressive Field Tuesday evening they will do so knowing he is 2-0 at home in his career team starts against Boston. With the Indians 8-4 the last 12 games in this park in this series, and Jimenez off a solid spring but rocky outing here in his last start, we'll look Tribe to hold the upper hand here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.

Ryan JamesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia Phillies +138FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Based on the way this season has started for the Reds it appears they are going to be going through a rebuilding year. Cincinnati does have a few key players on the DL so as we get deeper into the season the Reds may be able to snap out of this funk, but for right now the Phillies are the value play in this game. Philadelphia is 27-9 against the money line over the last two seasons when playing against a bad team whose win percentage is 38% to 46% on the season.

Rob Vinciletti

San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: San Francisco Giants

The Giants have several solid advantages in this one. They are scoring 6.6 runs the past week and are hitting.310. They are 5-0 the past 2+ years as a road favorite off a road win by 5 or more runs. In night games they are 4-0 and 6-2 off a win. The Brewers have been hit by the injury bug and are 0-6 in night games, scoring just over 2 runs per game. They have dropped 5 of 6 at home and are 1-5 vs winning teams. In games vs Left handers they are 1-4. Even their bullpen has been mediocre with a 5.11 home era. Tonight they will Send W. Peralta to the mound and he has allowed 7 runs over his first 2 starts spanning 12 innings while allowing 17 hits and walks. He will oppose a rejuvenated Barry Zito and his 85 mph fast ball. Zito has been stellar throwing 14 shut out innings to start the season and has quietly won 9 of his last 10 road starts. He is 3-1 in April road starts, allowing just 3 earned runs in 20 innings and he is 3-1 at Milwaukee. Based on all the data above we will recommend the SF. Giants as the free play.

Jim Feist

Tampa Bay at Baltimore
Pick: Under

Tampa Bay isn't hitting, 27th in runs scored, a poor .221 batting average (25th) as well as 25th in on-base percentage. The under is 19-6-2 in the Rays last 27 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Baltimore is on a 4-0 run under the total with great pitching depth and the under is 4-1 in Orioles last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. And when these teams meet the under is 39-19-2 in the last 60 meetings, including 9-3 under the total in the last 12 meetings in Baltimore. Play the Rays/Orioles under the total.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore OriolesFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Tampa Bay RaysFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I will continue to beat the drum for Baltimore to convert Jake Arriets to the bullpen, where I think he could excel as a heat throwing short reliever. As a starting pitcher, Arrieta is simply mediocre. The early returns this season are discouraging. Arrieta has displayed poor control and he's generating a very low swing and miss rate. He's also surrendering too much hard contact. Arrieta could hang in tonight against a less than daunting Tampa Bay attack, but the Rays he likely faces are an okay 17/58 with two long balls against the Baltimore righty. Roberto Hernandez will probably never get anywhere close to the form he flashed back in 2007 as Fausto Carmona. But there are a few mild positives so far in 2013. Hernandez is at least missing more bats than in recent years, his control has been okay and while still more reliant on the sinker than anything else, we're seeing a little more variance from the veteran righty in terms of what he throws. The probable Baltimore starters are 28/96 with two HR against Hernandez, which is not bad but also not at all dominant. The Rays are struggling, but it's not like the O's are clobbering the opposition themselves. I see the Rays being worth a shot tonight as a small road dog.

Joe D'AmicoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New York Mets at Colorado RockiesFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Colorado RockiesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Colorado comes off their second series sweep of San Diego this season. After two weeks, the Rockies are the only team in baseball that is undefeated at home with a 3-0 record in their house. Colorado took the L4 contests vs. New York, a season ago. Currently, the team is posting an average of 5.42 RPG overall but when hosting, they score 6.67 RPG, outscoring visitors by 4.67 RPG. Their lineup possesses five sluggers hitting .300 or better, including three batters already in DDs in Home Runs, and five players with 13 or more hits. Today, Juan Nicasio takes the mound. The RH is 1-0 on the season, never facing NY in his career, but owns a lifetime 6-3 home mark. New York has one of the Majors highest-scoring teams in the League…HOWEVER, they faced four teams that are a combined 14-33, as three of those clubs are in last place and the other is a fourth place team. Murphy, Buck, and Wright are playing sold ball as supporting cast members, Tejada and Byrd are contributing as well. But the offense also has 85 Ks and only 6 SBs. Their pitching is mediocre, allowing 3.53 RPG while their defense has already committed 8 Errors. Dillon Gee gets the nod. The RH is 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA. Last season, Gee had a road ERA of 5.16. The Rockies are 7-0 their L7 games played at home, 7-1 their L8 vs. RH starters, and 9-3 in Nicasio's L12 as a home fav. The Mets are 11-31 their L42 games vs. teams with a winning record, 5-16 their L21 games played as a 'dog, and 2-8 in Gee's L10 starts. Take Colorado.

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Kings at San Jose SharksFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: San Jose SharksFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The defending Stanley Cup champion Kings are staring down the barrel of their fourth straight loss on the road. Worse, they're playing in a building where they have had little recent success. So it looks like tough going on Tuesday for LA against a San Jose squad that could be providing the opposition in the first round of the upcoming playoffs. The Sharks are 23-6-2 in the last 31 home matchups at HP Pavilion vs. the Kings and are off an encouraging 4-0 win at Phoenix on Monday night. Goalie Antti Niemi Niemi is 13-1-4 with a 1.75 GAA at home this season, and he's also 4-1-0 with a 2.27 GAA in six starts at the Shark Tank against the Kings. Monday's shutout against the Coyotes was also Niemi's fourth of the season. Play Sharks

John RyanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit Tigers at Seattle MarinersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Detroit TigersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that the Tigers will win this game. Although the MLB season is 162 games and anything can occur on any given day, Detroit is the better team and the vastly better team in this matchup. Over time, they are 143-88 (+30.6 Units) against the money line when facing an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse over the last 3 seasons. Detroit is not a speed team, but built on strong power hitting and even stronger power pitching. Seattle is just 11-22 (-14.2 Units) against the money line in home games facing non-aggressive baserunning teams averaging 0.5 or less stolen bases per game over the last 3 seasons. Detroit is a solid 23-7 (+13.5 Units) against the money line after scoring 9 runs or more over the last 3 seasons; 14-5 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in road games with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons. Take the Tigers.

Matt Fargo

Texas Rangers vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs

The Cubs look to bounce back following losses in three of four games against the Giants in their most recent series. Chicago has been inconsistent on the road and at home where it is 2-4 at each but I feel it is in good position on Tuesday to get back into the win column. Travis Wood takes the hill for Chicago and he is off to a terrific start as he is 1-0 with a 1.46 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over two starts, both of which have been quality outings. Last season, he was unable to win many games but still posted a very strong 1.20 WHIP covering 156 innings. He did have a below average 4.27 ERA and that can be attributed to the long ball as he allowed 25 home runs but has not allowed one yet this season. The Rangers meanwhile are coming off a series split at Seattle as the bats were non-existent, scoring just 11 runs in the four-game set. Texas is hitting just .231 on the road and could again find the going tough. It goes with Derek Holland who is also off to a great start with two quality outings to open the season as he has allowed two runs in each of those games. This is his first start on the road however and even though he has had more success throughout his career on the highway, this is not ideal pitching in the cold weather of Chicago. The Cubs are 8-2 in their last 10 home games against left-handed starters while Holland is 1-5 with a 5.96 ERA in nine career Interleague starts.

Jimmy Boyd

Texas Rangers -135

It is not a surprise to many that the Cubs having a losing record to start the season. This matchup falls into a system to play on a team like Texas when they have allowed 4 runs or less in 4 straight games and they are playing against an opponent that is coming off a game where they allowed 9 runs or more. This system is 139-80 (64%) over the last five seasons. The Cubs have been struggling to get runs on the board this season as they average 3.5 runs per game. In their three games against left handed starters the Chicago averages just 1 run per game and a .159 batting average. Texas has given the start to left-hander Derek Holland for today’s game which spells big trouble for Cubs fans. Rarely will you find a line with this much value when the favorite has their opponent outmatched from every angle.

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Tampa Bay vs. WinnipegFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: WinnipegFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These teams have played three times this year: the Lightning won 8-3 in Tampa Bay on February 1st. The Jets won the next two, 2-1 in Tampa on March 7th, and 3-1 in Winnipeg on March 24th. The Lightning are 17-22-3 overall and only 6-14-1 on the road. They've lost three straight, most recently a listless 3-1 setback at Buffalo on Sunday. The Jets are 21-19-2 overall and 11-9-0 at home. They've won three straight, most recently a 7-2 destruction of the Panthers on Thursday. This is a big game for the home side which is currently on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. Winnipeg has been playing excellent hockey in all phases of the game, outscoring its opponents 15-4 during its streak. Tampa Bay is moving in the exact opposite direction, 1-4-1 in its last six overall and 0-3-1 in its last four away from friendly confines. In my opinion, the home side clearly enjoys the advantage between the pipes tonight, as Ondrej Pavelec has been lights out in posting a tiny 1.33 GAA during his team's win streak (either Ben Bishop or Mathieu Garon will get the call for the Lightning). I don't think we need to overanalyze this selection. Winnipeg is clearly the "better" team. Of course the Lightning would love to play spoiler here, but I simply don't see it happening. Tampa Bay is playing horribly right now and its goaltending continues to be a weak point. Recent performance plays a part in my handicapping tool-box and in this particular situation I definitely feel that the home side is worth the price of admission. What about you? Are the Jets worth the price?

Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St. Louis vs. PittsburghFORFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: St. LouisFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cardinals took care of business against lefties last year, scoring 5.7 runs per game and turning a $965 profit, so it was surprising to see them get shut out in their only matchup with a lefty so far this season. That was all the way back on April 5th when they lost 1-0 to the Giants. Tonight should go much better for them against a weaker pitcher and a weaker team. I'm taking St. Louis here...
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Pirates starter Jonathan Sanchez comes in off a terrible outing last Wednesday when he allowed nine runs in just 3.3 innings of work in a loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks. He wasn't much better the last time he faced the Cardinals, last July, allowing six runs in 5.3 innings. Pittsburgh lost that game 11-8.
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St. Louis won Monday's opener 10-6 here at PNC Park. Tonight they turn to Jake Westbrook, who comes off a complete game shutout of Cincinnati, a 10-0 win. He has yet to allow a single earned run in two starts this season. While he has a poor won-loss record in his career vs. the Pirates, he should have plenty of offensive help in this one as the Cards come in averaging more than six runs per game so far on the young season.

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NY Mets vs. ColoradoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: ColoradoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The New York Mets and Colorado Rockies will play 2 on Tuesday and in the second game I like the Rockies. Like the Mets, Colorado has surprised in the early going. They have started 8-4, one win better than New York, and have the all-important home field advantage. Starter Jeff Francis pitched well here at Coors Field in his 1st start of the year before getting knocked around in San Francisco. He'll lead his team to a win.
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Here are my keys to the game.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1. Jeff Francis - As I stated, he pitched well in his 1st start of 2013, allowing just one run off five hits in a 5-2 win over San Diego. The next time out did not go as well, but that start was on the road. We do know Francis has won his last two starts against the Mets, who were 21-38 against lefties last season.
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2. Homefield Advantage - Coors Field has always been a tough place to visit and having to play a double dip Tuesday should definitely have an adverse effect on the Mets by this second game. The Rockies have won all three of their home games so far, sweeping San Diego, while averaging 6.7 runs per game in the process.
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3. X-Factor - Mets starter Aaron Laffey didn't last long in his only start of 2013 (4 1/3 innings) and was knocked around for 10 hits in that short period of time. The Mets were fortunate to be playing the sorrowful Marlins and were able to still pull out the win. Not here.