Sean MurphyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona vs. NY YankeesFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: ArizonaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It appears that Ivan Nova has lost his confidence, or at the very least his form, as he's been tagged for four earned runs or more in six of his last nine starts going back to last season. I can't help but think the Yankees as a whole are in for a letdown following a big series win over the division rival Orioles, while the red hot D'Backs hit the road with nothing to lose following a hot start to the season.
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Arizona starter Brandon McCarthy has had a tough time through two starts this season, giving up 19 hits and 10 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings pitched, however, he's still been inducing plenty of ground balls, and hasn't been wild, issuing only two walks. I'm confident he can turn things around against a Yankees club that save for a couple of games in Cleveland last week hasn't been tearing the cover off the ball this season.
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McCarthy didn't face the Yankees as a member of the A's last season, but he did make a start here at Yankee Stadium back in 2011, holding the Bronx Bombers to only three earned runs over 7 2/3 innings in an eventual 6-5 victory. That should give him some added confidence entering Tuesday's start.
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The D'Backs certainly don't have the most potent offense, and are definitely short on household names, but they're a scrappy bunch, and one that knows how to manufacture runs. In fact, they're averaging well north of five runs per game - good for the seventh best mark in baseball. In terms of team batting average they rank sixth, and I'm confident we'll see them get to Ivan Nova on Tuesday night.
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I'm not convinced the Yankees should be favored in this game, let alone laying close to 30 cents. Look for the D'Backs to cool off the surging Yanks on Tuesday night in the Bronx.
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Houston Astros AT Oakland AthleticsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Oakland AthleticsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Athletics are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below 40%. Oakland is 22-5 in their last 27 vs. American League West. The Athletics are 5-0 in Griffin's last 5 home starts.
Bob Balfe
Hawks -6
This is the worst time of year to try to predict NBA Basketball not like any other time of the year is much easier with the way some teams play one night and the opposite the next. This Hawks team has to win tonight if they want to hold onto the 5th seed. At this point of the year its almost foolish to bet on a team with nothing to play for going against a team with something to play for. Take the Hawks
Diamondbacks/Yankees Over 9
Both starters have been brutal out of the gates this year. I don’t think both can turn it around on the same day. At least one of these guys are going to struggle again. Both teams crush right handed pitching and I think this should be a pretty entertaining game that could go over the total by the 5th inning. Take the Over.
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Vancouver vs. St. LouisFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Normally a defensive-natured team, the Blues began the year playing a lot of "overs." As the playoffs have drawn closer, things have begun to return to "normal."
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A look at St. Louis' last six games reveals that they've averaged only 2.5 combined goals. None of those finished with more than five.
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The Canucks are off a high-scoring game last night. However, 10 of their last 13 games have finished with five or fewer goals. Note that the "under" is 16-9-3 the past couple of seasons, when they played the second of back-to-back games.
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The "under" is 3-0-1 the last four times that the Blues were a host in this series. With this being a possible playoff preview, I won't be surprised to see another defensive affair. Consider the Under 5 goals.
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Carolina vs. OttawaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 5½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Craig Anderson is back between the pipes for Ottawa, and he's once again looking like the best goaltender in the NHL. Anderson leads the league in both GAA as well as save percentage.
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He stopped all 33 shots he faced, earning the shutout in a 2-0 win over the Devils in New Jersey on Friday. With the Sens sitting just two points clear of eighth place New York in the Eastern Conference, they will need Anderson to be at his best versus the Canes tonight.
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Carolina snapped a seven game losing skid with a win at home over Boston on Saturday, but with nothing left to play for this season and the playoffs out of reach, you have to wonder how much they have left in the tank. They have lost 14 of 16 overall since mid March.
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The Hurricanes have had success against Ottawa in the past, winning the last four meetings. All four of those contests were low scoring games that saw the total go under the number.
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Ottawa is going to have a cautious approach to this game, with so much at stake. I don't expect Carolina to find a lot of room to skate, and I expect the Sens to carry the play, out-working and out-hitting the Canes, grinding out a much needed victory in a low scoring affair.
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Kansas City Royals +165FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Braves are off to a fantastic start but are being overvalued here as a result. They shouldn't be laying this much juice against a Kansas City club that's sending Jeremy Guthrie to the mound. The Royals are 12-1 in Guthrie's last 13 starts, including 8-1 in his last 9 starts as an underdog. Also, the Braves are 1-6 in their last 7 interleague home games. Take Kansas City at a nice price.
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Los Angeles Clippers -14FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Following a key victory in the fight for home-court advantage, the Los Angeles Clippers control their own destiny in the final week of the regular season. Los Angeles (54-26) is coming off a huge road win at Memphis on Saturday.
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Fourth-seeded Los Angeles took three of four from the fifth-place Grizzlies and would own home-court advantage should they finish with the same record. The Clippers are also within striking distance of third-seeded Denver with two games remaining.
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With what's at stake, I like the Clippers' chances of blowing out the hapless Blazers tonight. Portland has lost 11 straight heading into this one while going 1-9-1 ATS in the process. Eight of those 11 losses have come by double-digits.
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Portland has been playing without three starters in LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum for a big part of this skid. While Batum is out for the season, both Aldridge and Matthews will be game-time decisions. I look for the Clippers to roll to a blowout victory and cover whether or not these two play.
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This play falls into a system that is 51-26 (70.1%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on home favorites (LA CLIPPERS) - after 5 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%). Bet the Clippers Tuesday.
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Red Sox/Indians Under 8½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is going to be a tough game for both teams as it will have a little extra meaning with what happened yesterday in Boston. It will be especially hard for the Red Sox to come in 100% focused. The OVER might look enticing with a couple of average starters in Felix Doubront (BOS) and Ubaldo Jimenez (CLE), but I think both are going to perform at a high level tonight. There's a light chance of rain and temperatures are expected to be below 55 degrees. Add in a very humid air and a Northwest wind (blowing in) and the ball doesn't figure to travel well.
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San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee BrewersSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: San Francisco GiantsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Giants have won 16 consecutive Zito starts. The LH has been perfect, throwing seven shutout innings in each of his 2 starts, sporting a 2-0, 0.00 record. Behind him, the 9-4 Giants are atop the NL West with a lineup consisting of five batters with 12 or more hits, 39 BBs, and have a Team BA of .274 ranking 4th in the Majors. Milwaukee is laughable since losing Aramis Ramirez. They set a team record with 32 consecutive scoreless innings. In last place in the Central at 3-8, the Brewers are being outscored by an average of 2.37 RPG, scoring 3 or less runs in 6 of their 11 contests. No power, lots of Ks, and no base-stealing skills has left Milwaukee scratching their heads. Willy Peralta goes to the bump. The RH is 0-1 with a 4.50 mark this year. The 23 year old has a mere 7 starts under his belt. The Giants are 10-4 their L14 meetings vs. the Brewers, 37-15 their L52 games played on the road, and 7-0 in Zito's L7 starts on the road. The Brewers are 0-5 their L5 vs. the NL West, 2-8 their L10 overall, and 0-4 in Peralta's L4 starts. Take San Francisco.
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Texas at ChicagoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: ChicagoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cubs have played a lot better than their record indicates. They have eight losses, but three of those have come by 1 run. This one appears to be a pitcher-dominated game with both Derek Holland, and Travis Wood off to very good starts. The Cubs enter this game hitless in their last 23 at bats with runners in scoring position, and those numbers tend to even out, so they should be heading to the plus side of things. The Cubs get Darwin Barney back in the lineup - a Gold Glove winner last year, and should help. Holland has really struggled in interleague play where the Rangers are just 2-7 in his last nine starts. The Cubs have dominated at home vs. left-handed pitching where they are 8-2 in their last 10. Take the Cubbies.
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St. Louis -½ -105 over PITTSBURGHFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1st 5 innings. Jonathan Sanchez is not likely to keep his starting rotation spot for long. Last time out against Arizona, Sanchez gave up nine earned runs in just 3.1 innings. Last season, 10 of his 15 starts ended in disasters including his lone start versus St. Louis. An 8.07 ERA last year (12.06 ERA in two starts this year), control issues, two consecutive years of dealing with left biceps tendinitis and several other factors strongly suggest that Sanchez is on the way out. Simply put, Sanchez has become batting practice out there and it’s unlikely to change against this potent offense that leads the NL in runs scored.
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Jake Westbrook is a groundball machine. Since 2002, these are Westbrook’s groundball rates: 60% in 2002 followed by 62%, 62%, 61%, 53%, 55%, 56%, 59% and finally 58% last season. This year in two starts, Westbrook’s groundball rate is 63%. We all know that a pitcher’s best friend is the double-play ball and Westbrook’s elite groundball tilt allows him to quickly erase runners and get out of jams. Westbrook is coming off a complete game shutout over the Reds. The veteran hurler stepped up his game last year at age 34 and he’s now delivering the combination of ERA, WHIP and wins we haven't seen in years. Opposing Sanchez, Westbrook should be in line for some big run support and we should be in line at the cashier’s window after the fifth inning.
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TORONTO -1½ +137 over ChicagoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dylan Axelrod has a career WHIP of 1.52 in 79 career major league innings. Any WHIP over 1.50 is a disaster waiting to happen and it happened for Axelrod in his last start at Washington in which he needed 103 pitches to get through 3.2 innings. In that start, Axelrod was tagged for seven hits and six runs while walking four batters. In two starts, Axelroad has walked more batters than he’s struck out. His WHIP is 1.71. Axelrod is 27-years old and has been up and down from the minors his entire career. The only reason he has a job this year is because John Danks is on the rack. Axelrod isn’t likely to get much run support either. The South Side has only managed 45 runs in their first 13 games and they own an AL worst .267 OBP. Additionally, the White sox are now 5-8 on the year and have lost six of seven on the road.
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The Blue Jays pitching has taken a turn for the better. The Jays staff was brilliant in Kansas City and they picked up right where they left off last night in a 4-3 win in the opener of this series. The White Sox scored two in the first last night but scored just one more the rest of the way. That was against Mark Buehrle. Josh Johnson is a different animal. Two rough starts by Johnson have many Blue Jays fans a bit worried but everything points to some hard luck as oppose to bad skills. Johnson still has 7 K’s in 7 frames and a groundball bias profile. He’s been done in by an unlucky 58% strand rate but this opponent is the perfect remedy for Johnson to get right-sided. Adam Dunn is batting .128 in the five spot and Paul Konerko is hitting .222 in the cleanup role. Konerko may get better but Adam Dunn will not, as he’s nothing but an overpaid lummox that closes his eyes and swings at anything in hopes of making contact. The South Side has too many holes in its batting lineup to be a threat and this is the game that Josh Johnson shows his true value.
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MILWAUKEE +102 over San FranciscoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1st 5 innings. It really is amazing….baseball "experts" everywhere are singing the praises of Barry Zito. "Barry Zito is finally living up to his $126 million contract." "He's commanding his curve." "He's added a slider to keep batters off balance." Good thing you’re reading this because this is the only sentence you should believe ... "This is still Barry Zito." There is no doubt that when we look at the surface stats, Zito looks like the Cy Young winner he once was. However, when we look under the hood, we see that this is a skill set that really hasn't changed all that much. Zito’s stretch and playoff run last year combined with his 0.00 ERA in two starts sure is sexy until you see that xERA of (4.44) over his past 20 starts that screams "Watch out! A correction is right around the corner!" Thanks to a fastball that tops out in the high 80's, Zito is still flashing the same mediocre strikeout rate that says he can't get out of trouble on his own and that hasn't changed despite what his ERA would suggest. See that HR/9 of 0.0 and WHIP of 1.00. A serious correction in both is forthcoming because Zito has a groundball/fly-ball split of 32%/46% and a strand rate of 100%. Prior to last year, Zito never had a winning season with the Giants. Over his last 16 starts, he’s been extremely lucky in that those hard hit balls are somehow being hit right at people. Don't get us wrong, Zito will deliver some decent starts over the balance of the 2013 season. What he hasn't done is discover a time machine that has allowed him to travel back to the year 2002 and retrieve the skills he had when he won the American League Cy Young. If you are thinking about pulling the trigger on Barry Zito, we’re suggesting the time to sell high on this guy is right now because if ever there was a fluke, Barry Zito is it. He’s been defying logic for far too long and it’s going to come crashing down at some point. That you can count on.
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Wily Peralta is a pitcher to keep an eye on. He went 2-1 with a 2.48 ERA in 29 innings pitched for the Crew last season. Peralta spent most of year as a starter in AAA, walking too many but striking out a batter per inning and as a result, he earned a September callup, where he didn’t look a bit out of place. While Peralta’s control is a work in progress, his big strikeout rate and elite groundball tilt (58%) will cover a few too many BBs. That said, this one is more about fading Zito, thus the five-inning wager.
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EDMONTON -½ +146 over MinnesotaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. On the money line the Oilers are -120. Why? Edmonton has dropped out of playoff contention, they’ve lost five games in a row and over that five game stretch the Oilers have scored four goals combined while failing to score more than one time in any of those games. That this reeling club is -120 over the Wild just doesn’t make sense and we’re suggesting that the oddsmakers have posted an enticing line on the Wild for bettors to take the bait. Don’t do it. With that, we’re backing the Oilers spotting a half puck and taking back a pretty sweet price because the money line tells us to do so. End of story.
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Carolina +147 over OTTAWAFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. The Senators have been undervalued the entire season and they’ve paid off handsomely for their backers in many games this year. However, for the first time in quite a while, Ottawa is now grossly overpriced against the dangerous Hurricanes. We’re often criticized for putting a little too much emphasis on shots on goal but there is a big correlation between winning and shots on net and a correlation between losing and constantly being outshot. For instance, Pittsburgh is 20-4 when outshooting its opponent, Chicago is 23-3-3, Edmonton is 7-1-2, Boston is 18-7-3, Montreal is 17-7-4 and the list goes on. We mention that because the Hurricanes lead the NHL in shots on goal per game but their record does not support Carolina’s dominance in that category. Had Cam Ward not been injured, the Hurricanes record would be so much better because they outshoot their opponent the majority of the time. Now Carolina will play an offensively challenged Senators club that plays with heart but is still sloppy in its own end, thus creating many scoring chances for the opposition.
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Ottawa has a significant edge in net here. They are also fighting for a playoff spot and they’ve proven to be tough to beat. However, as a -160 favorite, these Senators are too high of a risk even with superior goaltending. Carolina broke a nasty funk with a hard-earned 4-2 win over Boston in its last game. One win does wonders to a teams’ psyche. The ‘Canes outshot the Bruins 38-30 in that victory. Prior to that, Carolina outshot the Capitals 44-31 but lost 3-1. The ‘Canes will be the first team since records were kept to lead the league in shots on net and miss the playoffs. That says something and coming off a win and with a chance to make life difficult for the host, Carolina is not going to lay down here. At this price and with all the pressure on the Senators, Carolina offers up tremendous value here.
MLB Predictions
Oakland Athletics -1.5 -101
These two teams have met 4 times this year, with Oakland winning all 4. They won 11-2 last night, and swept the Astros in Houston in the firs week of April. The A's have won by 5, 3, 6, and 9 as they've covered the run line in all victories. Houston is 4-9 on the season and 3-4 on the road, while the A's are 1st in the AL West at 10-4 and 4-4 at home. Oakland leads the league with 85 runs (6.07 per game) and although their team batting average has fallen a bit they are still second in the league with a solid .349 OBP. The Astros have 53 runs this year (4.08 per game) and sit 23rd in team OBP at .301. Houston will send Brad Peacock to the mound who is 1-1 with a 4.82 ERA, .206 OBA and 1.18 WHIP over two starts. He held Seattle to 4 hits and 3 earned runs over 5 innings in his latest start, but when he faced the A's in his first start he lasted just 4.1 innings giving up 3 hits and 2 earned runs. Last year in Triple-A he went 12-9 with a 6.01 ERA, 2.75 OBA and 1.58 WHIP. The A's counter with A.J. Griffin who the Astros haven't seen this year. Griffin is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA, .235 OBA and 1.07 WHIP to start the season as he beat Seattle at home and the Angels in Los Angeles. Last season Griffin went 7-1 with a 3.06 ERA. At home he had a 3.21 ERA, .215 OBA and 1.02 WHIP. Note that the A's are 14-2 in Griffin's last 16 starts overall and 5-0 in his last 5 home starts. Dating back to last season the A's are one the big league's hottest teams winning 45 of their last 60 games overall. They are also 40-13 in their last 53 games as a favorite. The Astros are 27-73 in their last 100 overall and just 18-56 in their last 74 road games. Oakland has won 6 straight meetings between these two teams and the last 4 in Oakland. Like mentioned earlier Oakland has beaten Houston 4 times this season all by at least 2 runs. With Griffin on the mound and the bats still hot after 11 runs last night I think Oakland will win by a handful tonight.
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Vancouver at St. LouisFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This game is juiced to the Under and deservedly so. St. Louis has shown nothing of late to prove it can score goals on a consistent basis, but still they are able to keep the puck out of the net and that makes them a very lucrative Under team. The Blues have lost two straight games where they scored just one goal, and before that during their six win streak they scored just 14 goals. In their last 15 games they've gone Over a total of 5 just twice. Vancouver comes into town after a solid win in Nashville last night – a back-to-back situation tonight and third game in four nights. Vancouver has played in six back-to-back situations and only one of those went Over 5. I expect the Canucks to play a very disciplined road hockey game tonight and limit the Blues’ chances while being patient about their own chances. This has all the markings of a 2-1 type contest.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Texas -130 over CHICAGO: Both starters have started out well this year but I feel that the Rangers with the better offense can get the job done here. The Rangers are actually 21st in the league in scoring (3.8 rpg) and 20th in hitting (.243), but the Cubs check in slightly worse at 24th in scoring (3.5 rpg) and 27th in hitting (.223). The Rangers are 21-5 in their last 26 interleague games vs a team with a losing record and 21-5 in Derek Holland's last 26 starts following a team loss in their last game. For the Cubs they are 1-8 in Woods' last 9 starts vs a winning team and 0-7 in his last 7 starts as a home dog. Both starters have struggled in interleague play in their careers, but Texas does have the better overall talent in this one and should start this series off right with a solid win.
Minnesota/ Angels Over 8.5: The Angels offense is showing signs of life and while they are not scoring a ton, they are 8th in the league in hitting (.268). I expect their offensive growth to continue in this one vs Mike Pelfrey, who has a 7.36 ERA out the gate. Mike also has been a slow starter ERA Wise in his career, posting a 4.75 ERA in the 1st moth of the year, despite a 10-7 record. That would indicate high scoring games. Minnesota's offense is middle of the pack, but the do have some good hitters and did put up 8 runs on this staff yesterday. Speaking of the LA Staff, they are ranked last in the league in ERA (5.18) and have one of the worst pens as well. Jason Vargas has not had god success vs the Twins of late with a 5.40 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them, plus in 3 career starts in this building he has an 8.22 ERA. The Pitching is just not there to keep the scoring down in this one and I expect at least 5 runs from both squads here.
Detroit -146 over SEATTLE: Dough Fister has started out in fie fashion with a 2-0 mark and a 2.77 ERA. He has just one start vs his previous team and it was in the park. In that game he pitched 7 innings of shutout ball. In his career he is just 9-16 in this park, but with a very nice 3.32 ERA. A bi reason is he got shit for run support by the M's. With Detroit he does get more run support. The Tigers rank 4th in scoring and 1st in hitting and that should continue today vs Aaron Harang, who is 0-1 with a 5.63 ERA in 3 career starts vs the Tigers. Aaron will be making is first start of the year and he has struggled out the game the last 5 years, posting 9-13 mark with a 4.32 ERA in 27 starts over that stretch. The M's don't have the pitching edge in this one and they certainly don't rate the edge at the plate as they come in 20th in scoring and 26th in hitting. The Tigers are just 1-6 the last 7 in this series, but Seattle is just outmatched in this one at both the plate and on the mound, giving the Tigers a nice win in the series opener.
Tampa Bay/ Baltimore Over 9: The Rays and O's put up 9 or more runs in each of their 3 games during the opening series of the year and that was in a pitchers park. Tonight they meet in one of the better hitters parks in the league and each team will be facing a couple of struggling starters as well. Hernandez comes in with a 6.08 ERA in his two starts and he has a career 8.46 ERA in 4 starts in this park, with those 4 games each putting up double digits in runs. Jake Arrieta comes in with a 5.88 ERA in 7 career starts vs the Rays, plus in 33 appearances (31 starts) in this park he has a 5.69 ERA. Jake has also started slow on the year with a 7.20 ERA and that gives him a 6.03 ERA in his last 7 starts dating back to last year. The O's usually hit well in this park and the Rays offense had its best offensive output vs O's pitching in that opening series. The offenses should shine in this one vs some bad pitching.