Andrew Lange
Kansas City at Atlanta
Play: Kansas City
I may be in the minority but I think Atlanta's Kris Medlen is going to struggle at times this season. Last season's numbers were outrageous and while Medlen did pitch well, he was also fortunate – very fortunate in fact with a .261 BABIP and 85% left on base rate. He's back at it again this season with a 1.50 ERA through two starts but I thought he struggled some against the Phillies (5 IP, 4 BBs, 3 Ks, 2 ERs) and like a lot of starters was able to cruise past the woeful Marlins. I know the Braves are the hottest team in baseball but to see Medlen as high as -180 vs. an American League team and a viable arm in Jeremy Guthrie seems a little steep. It's early but I like that the Royals have shown a decent amount of plate discipline (5.5 Ks per game vs. 6.7 in 2012). They've hit an AL-low four home runs but the power production will eventually come – it's the offensive approach that will ultimately make or break this squad. With the Braves' hot start and Medlen's current status in the betting markets I see this plus price too good to pass up.
Joe Gavazzi
LA Clippers -14
These are two teams finishing the season going opposite directions. Portland is on an 0-11 SU, 1-10 ATS slide losing those games by 14 PPG, allowing 110 PPG on 52% shooting. With ailing veteran Batum, Matthews and Aldridge on the bench, Portland started 4 rookies in their 118-109 loss at Denver on Sunday. LAC holds the tie breaker over Memphis as they battle for the 4th spot in the West. The Clippers currently trail the Grizz by ½ game but control their own fate with games against Portland tonight and at Sacramento on Wednesday to close out the season. The Clips have won 5 consecutive games covering 4 of those. They have also won 3 consecutive home games in which they have averaged 115 PPG on 54% shooting. They are off a pair of road victories a s they play this home finale. The last meeting between these teams saw the Clippers win 96-83 on this court. Those previous acts set up an NBA situation that finds NBA home teams off back-to-back road wins to be 90-50 ATS vs. road teams playing with revenge for a loss in which they scored less than 85 points.