Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday April, 17

Marc Lawrence

New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: New York Mets

Johan Santana continues his comeback tour when the Mets meet the Braves in Atlanta in Game Two of this best of three series in Atlanta this evening. After putting up promising numbers and issuing zero walks this spring, the former Cy Young winner has posted a 0.90 ERA in his first two starts of the campaign this season. He also owns a sparkling 2.14 ERA in 13 career starts against the Braves. With that look for Santana to improve to 12-4 in his last 16 road team starts during the opening month of April here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Mets.

Hollywood Sports

Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers

The Dodgers (9-1) are the hottest team in baseball to start the season as they have now won six games in a row after their 5-4 win versus San Diego on Sunday. They send out Billingsley here who started the 2012 season with a 2-0 record along with a sizzling 0.63 ERA and a 0.63 WHIP. But despite this great start, there are plenty of reasons to remain somewhat skeptical about the veteran right-hander moving forward. Billingsley was 11-11 last season with a subpar 4.21 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. Additionally, Billingsley was much more effective at home last season with his 3.07 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and .241 opponent's batting average -- but he saw these numbers skyrocket to a 5.34 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and .285 opponent's batting average when on the road. Milwaukee (4-6) counters with Gallardo who rebounded from a rough opening effort by scattering five hits and just one run in his seven innings of work in Chicago against the Cubs. Gallardo enjoyed an outstanding 2011 campaign with a 17-10 record along with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. The right-hander was even better at home last year where he sported a 3.00 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and .237 opponent's batting average which was significantly better than his 4.05 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and .253 opponent's batting average when on the road. The Brewers provide Gallardo plenty of run support at home as well as they have now won a decisive 35 of their last 52 home games with Gallardo on the hill. Milwaukee has also won 43 of their last 56 home games against right-handed starting pitchers which is not a good sign here for an overachieving Billingsley. With the Brewers a small favorite, they offer nice value in this one behind Gallardo in front of the home fans. Take Milwaukee with the money line while listing both starting pitchers in this one.

MTi Sports

Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks

The Pirates are 1-11 at night when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and the Diamondbacks are 26-4 at night as a 140+ favorite when they are off a night win in which they came back from a deficit. Finally, The Diamondbacks are 13-0 with Ian Kennedy when he had more strike outs than hits allowed in his last outing.

Matt Fargo

Cleveland Indians vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners

Cleveland is coming off a road sweep at Kansas City over the weekend as the offense erupted for 32 runs in the three-game series. It was an amazing display and it was the first time ever that Cleveland has scored eight or more runs in its first three road games to pen a season. Getting a day off on Monday was something the Indians did not want and the momentum from that production took a hit. The fact the Indians are favored here may be a bit of an overreaction. Seattle has gotten off to a very solid start, at least from what we were expecting. The Mariners are 6-5 after taking two of three from Oakland over the weekend and it was Felix Hernandez that surprisingly took the lone defeat. That was the first home series for Seattle which started in Tokyo then went to Texas and Oakland so a day off Monday was a needed break from a tough early season schedule. The Mariners are 4-1 in their last five games as underdogs between +110 and +150. The Mariners go with the ageless Kevin Millwood who is coming off a very solid season opener. He allowed just one run over six innings against a potent Texas offense on the road and now he starts his home opener. Safeco Field has not been one of his favorite places to pitch over the years but now that he is on the home team, we should see a difference. He has faced his former team twice since 2009, allowing only four runs in 14 innings, both games resulting in quality outings. The Indians counter with Justin Masterson who is making his third start of the season. He pitched great in his season opener, allowing only one runs in eight innings against Toronto but followed that up with an uneven effort against Chicago, allowing five runs, three earned, over five innings. He has allowed four runs in 13 innings but in the five innings when the relievers took over, they allowed 13 runs so Cleveland is 2-0 in his games. Cleveland is 5-13 in his last 18 road starts against teams with a winning record.

Steve Merril

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays

Tampa Bay has had a brutal start to their season getting the Yankees, Red Sox, and Tigers to begin. Jeff Niemann gets his second start of the year after giving up 3 runs and four hits to the Tigers in five innings. He has had his troubles historically with the Blue Jays going 4-3 with a 5.23 ERA in 11 career starts. Adam Lind (11-26) has had his way with the Rays’ starter. As a whole, the team is hitting .267 against Niemann. Toronto is scoring over 5 runs per game despite hitting just .231 as a unit. They are 3-3 at home in six games. Tampa Bay's bullpen has been awful as a unit as their ERA is still above 10.00. Ricky Romero is coming off his best effort against the Red Sox his last time out. He gave up 1 run and three hits in 8.3 innings of work in a 3-1 victory. Boston is a team that he has traditionally struggled with so it was a good sign for Romero that he pitched so well in that game. Romero is 5-4 with a 3.18 ERA in 10 career starts against Tampa Bay. Rays’ hitters are 23 for 141 all-time against the lefty. Struggling the most are Matt Joyce (0-12), Evan Longoria (5-20), Carlos Pena (1-10), Sean Rodriguez (1-15), Luke Scott (1-12) and BJ Upton (5-25). Tampa Bay's offense has scored only 20 runs so far on their current 7-game road trip. They are hitting just over .220 in their last eight games. Toronto's bullpen has been a question mark this year going 2-3 with a 3.77 ERA and four blown saves in five chances. But we expect Romero will go long enough in this game and limit the bullpen’s work. We recommend laying the price with the Blue Jays in this game tonight.

Rob Vinciletti

Indiana vs Philadelphia
Play: Under 184.5

This game fits a nice totals system that has won 10 of the last 11 times and plays to the under for road dogs like the Pacers with no rest after a home favored win at -10 or more, vs an opponent off a road game where they had 25 or more assists. The Sixers have gone under in 22 of their 32 home games and will draw the Pacers into a slower style game here. The Sixers have played under in 8 of 12 vs Central Division teams and in the series here 3 of the last 4 have stayed under the total. Look for this one to follow suit tonight.

Bryan Power

Nashville Predators @ Detroit Red Wings
PICK: Detroit Red Wings

Can ANYONE make sense of this NHL postseason so far? Vancouver and Pittsburgh both face 0-3 deficits in their respective series and home teams seem to be losing left and right (all 3 did yesterday). Tonight, I look for some sanity to be restored when the Red Wings welcome in the Predators in a critical Game 4 for the home team. As you know, Detroit at one point during the regular season, rattled off a NHL record for consecutive home victories. Sticking w/ the theme of this current postseason, they lost Game 3 here to Nashville, 3-2. It was the first time in seven chances that the Preds won here at Joe Louis in the postseason. Detroit is 19-12 w/ revenge this season including a Game Two win in this series. Look for the Red Wings to square this best of seven series away at two games a piece.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers
PICK: Milwaukee Brewers

I'm not buying the Dodgers fast start just yet, mainly because the only teams they've played so far are San Diego and Pittsburgh. Tonight, they visit Miller Park to face a Brewers team that's lost four in a row, but should be in line for a bounce back considering a 63-28 home record since the start of last season, including 58-22 when favored! Starter Yovanni Gallardo was touched up in his first start, but came back to throw seven strong innings in a win over the Cubs last Wednesday. Milwaukee is 16-2 in his last 18 home starts at night.

David Chan

Coyotes @ Blackhawks
PICK: Under 5.5

I bet value where I see it, and after Game 1 finished 3-2 for the Coyotes (a push), and after Game 2 finished 4-3 for the 'Hawks (an "over"), I'm expecting a tighter, lower-scoring affair in Game 3 in Chicago.

Phoenix lost centre Martin Hanzal and winger Lauri Korpikoski in Game 2, which is a blow for this already offensively challenged club (it saw the total go "under" the number in 39 of 69 overall this season, and in 20 of 36 on the road).

"You take Hanzal out of the lineup that's one of our top six players, and Korpikoski, right there, they're both valuable players for us," Coyotes' coach Dave Tippett said.

Coyotes goaltender Mike Smith was run over by the 'Hawks Andrew Shaw, and was laid flat on his back for five-minutes:

"I went back to play the puck, and I didn't see him coming," Smith said. "I don't have eyes in the back of my head." He added, "I feel fine. I'm 100 percent."

Let's face it, Chicago was fortunate to win Game 2, scoring with just 5.5 seconds left in regulation to send it to overtime, as that contest was once again heading for another O/U "push".

But now this series shifts to the "Windy City", and the total has risen to 5.5.

Note that Phoenix has seen the total go "under" the number in 12 of 20 this year after allowing 4 goals or more.

And it's interesting to note that Chicago has seen the total go "under" the number in 19 of 35 this year after scoring 4-goals or more in its previous contest.

It's time to take advantage of this series' highest O/U line to date; in my opinion, the value is clearly on the "under"!

Sean Murphy

Florida Panthers @ New Jersey Devils
PICK: New Jersey Devils

The Panthers picked up a huge win on Sunday night, not only in this series, but for their franchise as a whole.

Does that mean they're ready to take control of the series with a win in New Jersey on Tuesday? I don't believe so.

Even when the Panthers bring their 'A' game, as they did on Sunday night, they're still not assured victory. Despite falling behind 3-0 in Game 2, the Devils battled hard all the way, and closed within a goal only two minutes into the third period. The fact is, that game could have gone either way.

The road hasn't been kind to the Panthers this season, as they've gone a miserable 17-24 on the highway. By contrast, the Devils check in at 24-17 on home ice. Their last setback here at the Prudential Center came way back on March 23rd against Toronto. Since then, they've gone a perfect 4-0, outscoring the opposition 15-8 in the process.

Florida isn't blessed with a wealth of scoring options, so it's no surprise that it has struggled to find the back of the net on the road all season long. That's where I expect the Panthers to run into trouble again tonight. Martin Brodeur is coming off a subpar effort in Game 2, but I expect a strong response from the veteran netminder tonight. Note that Florida has scored a grand total of 12 goals in regulation time in its last 10 road contests.

The Devils were able to steal home ice advantage with their Game 1 victory in Florida, and I don't expect them to let it go to waste in Game 3. This is a veteran team that knows the importance of bouncing back from a loss in the postseason, and I'm confident they'll skate away victorious on Tuesday.

Dave Cokin

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays

Jeff Niemann is off an encouraging season debut for the Rays. Ricky Romero rebounded from a terrible first start with a good outing last time out. But Romero's K rate is a bit off to start the year and it looks to me like he's a shade overpriced here. I'll go with appears to be nice value on the Rays as road dogs.

Jim Feist

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
Pick: Cincinnati Reds

The Reds are 8-1 in Johnny Cueto's last 9 starts as well as 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Cueto is off to a great start with a 2.25 ERA walking only 2 in 12 innings. The Cardinals are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. And the Reds are 4-1 in Cueto's last 5 starts against the Cardinals. Play the Reds.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

LA ANGELS -1.5 (+110) over Oakland: The A's started out playing some pretty good offense, but that has not been the case in their last 6 games, as they have hit under .175 and have been shutout 3 times during that stretch. It might not get easier fore them tonight as they face Dan Haren, who is 2-2 with a solid 3.79 ERA vs his old team, plus he is 14-10 with a 2.74 ERA in 30 career starts in this park. Dan has had some struggles in the early going, as he has allowed 20 hits in a little over 10 innings, but he should be able to shut down this group tonight. The Angels offense is looking a bit better of late, as they averaged 6.2 rpg on their recent road trip and then came home and put up 6 runs in last night's game. Tonight they face Tyson Ross, who has just 8 starts in his career and is 2-4 with a 3.49 ERA in those starts, while vs the Halos he is 0-1 with a 2.53 ERA in 2 starts. Not bad number for him vs the Angels, but still I think LA's offense is playing very well right now and the A's just won't put up enough offense to keep this one close. Look for L.A. to win this one by 3 or more here.

More Later

EZWINNERS

Arizona Diamondbacks -200

The Pirates starting pitcher Jeff Karstens has been roughed up in the first inning of his first two starts this season and he can't afford to let that happen with Ian Kennedy on the mound as the opposing pitcher for the Diamondbacks. Kennedy is off to a 2-0 start this season with an ERA of 2.84. Karstens can't expect to get a lot of run support from the Bucs as last season Kennedy held the Pirates to just one hit with twelve strikeouts in eight shutout innings against Pittsburgh. The Pirates are just 7-19 in Karstens last twenty six road starts and the D-Backs are 10-1 in Kennedy's last eleven home starts. I look for these trends to continue. Play on Arizona.

JEFF BENTON

Your freebie for Tuesday is the Diamondbacks on the RUN LINE over the Pirates.

Arizona got their ten game home stand started last night with a 5-1 win over a Pittsburgh team that already appears "road weary", as the Bucs have played ten games this season - going 1-6 away from PNC Park thus far.

I don't see things getting better for the Pirates tonight, as they face Ian Kennedy who is already off to a 2-0 start with a dozen strikeouts in his twelve-plus innings of work.

Last September in his lone start against Pittsburgh, Kennedy worked eight full frames without allowing a run. Kennedy allowed just one hit in those eight innings, and struck out twelve.

Arizona has yet to lose at home this season at 4-0, and their last four season wins have all come by two runs or better.

As for Pittsburgh, they have been held to two runs or less in seven of their ten games thus far. As you can see, the Buccos are offensively-challenged, and figure to be offensively-challenged once again tonight facing Ian Kennedy.

Take the Snakes on the RUN LINE to win this game by at least two runs.

3♦ ARIZONA -1.5