Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, April 19,2011

Marc Lawrence

Washington Nationals at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: Washington Nationals

When the Nationals take on the Cardinals in St. Louis in the opener of a three game series Tuesday evening they'll meet a struggling Jake Westbrook and his 7.63 ERA. Note only has Westbrook been unable to find the plate (11 walks against eight strikeouts), he is just 3-10 in his 13 career home team starts during April. Until Westbrook comes around we'll continue to fade him when he's favored to win. With the Nats in off a three game series sweep over the Brewers, we recommend a 1-unit play on Washington.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic

With the Hawks just 6-20 ATS in playoff road games and the Magic off an outright home loss in Game 1, Orlando has to be the play here, right? Actually, that would be wrong as Atlanta is now 5-0 ATS vs. their division rivals this season and even better is their 10-3 ATS mark when off an outright dog win by double digits. Orlando is 2-7 ATS playing with 2 days rest and 0-4 ATS this year off an outright double digit loss in a game in which they were favored. They are also 2-7 ATS seeking revenge for a double digit loss. Pointspread is too high.

Play on: Atlanta

Terron Chapman

New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics
Play: Boston Celtics -7

The New York Knicks played well enough to win Game 1 of their best-of-seven first round series with the third seeded Boston Celtics Sunday evening, however, they fell on the wrong side of an, 87-85 defeat. More concerning than perhaps the 0-1 deficit, is that Knicks point guard Chauncey Billups went down with :51 seconds remaining in Game 1 with a knee injury. He is listed as questionable for Game 2. If Billups cannot go, as expected, the reigns will be handed over to third-year point guard Toney Douglas as the Knicks look to even up the series Tuesday night.

Boston won the opener when Ray Allen drained the winning 3-point basket with 11.6 seconds remaining. The C’s trailed for most of the second quarter and all of the third before rallying from a 12-point second-half deficit. All five Boston starters scored in double figures, led by Ray Allen with 24 points. What has to be even more encouraging for the Celtics is the play of Jermaine O’ Neal. O’ Neal went 6-for-6 from the floor, posting 12 points, four rebounds and four blocks in 22 minutes of play in place of the injured Shaquille O‘ Neal.

The loss of Billups will be a big blow to the Knicks, although Toney Douglas should not be overlooked as a replacement. Douglas averaged 16.8 points and 6.8 assists in the six games Billups missed with a left thigh bruise from March 2-10. The Knicks split the first two then won three straight before losing again. This will be Douglas’ first start in the playoffs. The first playoff game of his career came Sunday. He finished with eight points and two assists in 25 minutes. Amare Stoudemire was superb in Game 1 with 28 points and 11 rebounds, although Carmelo Anthony struggled in his first playoff game as a Knick. Anthony finished 5-for-18 from the floor.

The Boston defense once again set the tone for a playoff series with an outstanding game one performance. The C’s held the Knicks to just 85 points--21.5 points below their season average--on just 42% shooting from the field. The Celtics are now 5-0 against the Knicks this season, having won nine of the last ten in the series overall. No Billups makes an already difficult situation, even more challenging for the visiting Knicks. However, look for New York to come out motivated, looking to avoid an 0-2 deficit heading back to the Big Apple. They have the talent in Stoudemire and Anthony to keep it close deep into the fourth quarter, but ultimately, the experience of the Celtics should prove to be the difference. Look for the host to make enough plays down the stretch and win this one going away. Play on the Boston Celtics (-) the points for 1 unit.

Cajun Sports

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Florida Marlins
Selection: 2* Florida Marlins

The Pittsburgh Pirates travel to south Florida for a three-game set against the host Florida Marlins with the opener set for Tuesday night. We are seldom fans of laying big numbers and here we do so with just a small play because of the price the oddsmakers have placed on the Marlins. Paul Maholm takes the bump for the visitor knowing he has dropped his last two starts in his last three outings while his teammates have lost all three contests. He allowed seven runs five of which were earned on seventeen hits five bases on balls and ten strikeouts over that span. Maholm is 3-4 versus the Marlins with an ERA of 5.10. Florida will send Josh Johnson to the hill with his 2-0 mark over his last three starts and an ERA of 1.35. In those three games, Johnson allowed five runs three were earned on eight hits five walks and eighteen strikeouts. Pittsburgh is 4-26 in road games after batting .225 or worse over a 10 game span the last 3 seasons. The Pirates are 11-44 (-26.3 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +150 to +175 over the last 3 seasons. A check of the database reveals a powerful league-wide system that tells us to Play AGAINST MLB NL road underdogs in this price range with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better versus an opponent whose starter averages more than 6.5 innings pitched per start. Playing against these road teams has produced a record of 49-4 SU for 92.5 percent winners and more than 40 units of profit. With a solid pitching advantage and strong technical support, we will lay the high price here as the Marlins take down the Pirates on Tuesday night.

Rocketman

Washington Nationals vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals

Washington is 11-31 last 3 years when playing with a day off. St Louis is 5-0 at home vs Washington the past 3 years. Nationals are 17-36 in their last 53 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Nationals are 22-49 in their last 71 road games. Nationals are 42-95 in their last 137 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Nationals are 47-111 in their last 158 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Nationals are 16-39 in their last 55 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Nationals are 16-43 in their last 59 games following an off day. Nationals are 17-46 in their last 63 games as a road underdog. Nationals are 8-22 in Lannans last 30 starts during game 1 of a series. Nationals are 4-11 in Lannans last 15 starts with 5 days of rest. Nationals are 2-12 in Lannans last 14 Tuesday starts. Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 overall. Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 games on grass. Cardinals are 21-7 in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Cardinals are 9-3 in their last 12 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Cardinals are 10-4 in their last 14 vs. a team with a winning record. Cardinals are 58-28 in their last 86 during game 1 of a series. Nationals are 5-14 in the last 19 meetings. Nationals are 6-20 in the last 26 meetings in St. Louis. Nationals are 1-4 in Lannans last 5 starts vs. Cardinals. We'll recommend a small play on St. Louis tonight!

Tom Stryker

Cleveland Indians @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Kansas City Royals

Off last night's 10-inning 7-3 victory at Kansas City, Cleveland will be in trouble here.

With starter Mitch Albot on the shelf with a right elbow strain, the Indians will turn to young right-hander Jeanmar Gomez. This will be Gomez's first start for the Tribe in 2011. Through 11 starts last season, Jeanmar was tagged for 30 earned runs and 73 hits in 57.2 frames. That produced a 4-5 record and an average-at-best 4.68 ERA. With No. 58 on the bump, Cleveland has dropped five of its last seven.

The second place Royals will counter with southpaw Bruce Chen. After getting slapped around in his first performance of the season against the Halos, Chen has responded nicely in his last two against the Tigers and Mariners allowing no earned runs and nine hits in 14.0 innings of work. The Royals won both of those games by margins of 5-1 and 3-1. With No. 52 on the hill and KC facing a winning team, the Royals have cashed five of their last seven.

The Tribe has played well this season and their starting pitchers have been on a tear. Unfortunately, Cleveland has slipped in 63 of its last 94 priced as a road pup and the Indians don't have the better arm on the bump in this contest. Take Kansas City with listed pitcher Chen.

Steve Merril

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -1½

The Phillies’ bullpen let one get away on Monday night against the Brewers. They probably won't be needed on Tuesday night when Roy Halladay takes the mound. Halladay is 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA in three starts averaging just over seven innings per game in those outings. Halladay has given up just 3 runs in his 22 innings of work. Milwaukee hitters are just 15 for 69 against the Phillies’ starter. Mark Kotsay (2-9), Rickie Weeks (1-6), Ryan Braun (1-4), Nyjer Morgan (2-14) and Casey McGehee (0-3) are among the many who have poor numbers against Halladay. The Brewers are averaging less than 4 runs per game on the road.

Randy Wolf isn't facing the Pirates on Tuesday. He threw 6.7 innings of shutout ball in his last outing against Pittsburgh while striking out 10 and giving up only three hits. Wolf is 2-2 with a 5.09 ERA in six career starts against the Phillies. Raul Ibanez (5-14), Placido Polanco (5-10), Jimmy Rollins (4-10), Shane Victorino (5-15), Wilson Valdez (2-3) and Carlos Ruiz (5-8) all hit the lefty well. The Phillies are hitting over .300 at home and .343 against left-handed starters. They have amazing offensive numbers in this early season. Milwaukee's bullpen was reliable on Monday when picking up their first road win of the season. Even with that, they feature an ERA well over 5.00 away from home this season. With Roy Halladay on the mound and the Phillies hitting against Randy Wolf, this should be an easy win for the Phillies tonight.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers -1½

Texas took Game 1 of their important early series with the Angels and they’ll hope to do it again on Tuesday night in a pitching match-up that they have a clear advantage in. The Angels are sending Matt Palmer to the hill for his 2nd outing of the season. His first one was a disaster where he gave up 5 runs and 10 hits in 4.7 innings pitched against the Blue Jays at home. Palmer faced Texas back in 2009 and gave up just one hit in five innings of work. Adrian Beltre (3-8), David Murphy (2-6), Julio Borbon (2-4) and Elvis Andrus (1-3) hit Palmer well. The Rangers’ offense is averaging 7 runs per game at home and they will face an Angels’ bullpen that has an ERA over 4.00 on the road and two blown saves.

Colby Lewis is returning from paternity leave to make his start against the Angels. Lewis is 1-1 with a 5.25 ERA in two starts so far splitting outings with the Orioles and Red Sox. Lewis faced the Angels twice last season giving up 2 runs in each outing while picking up the loss in one of those games. Los Angles hits just .176 (9-51) against Lewis as a team. Only Jeff Mathis (1-1) has an average better then .250 against the Rangers’ starter. Vernon Wells has the most hits with three against Lewis, but that's over 13 at-bats. The Angels are hitting just over .220 as a team over their past eight games. The Rangers’ bullpen has an ERA around 3.00 for the season so they should be able to back Lewis up and hold a comfortable lead in this game.

Tom Freese

New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics
Play: Boston Celtics -7

New York is 2-6 ATS their last 8 games following a straight up loss. New York is 2-5 ATS their last 7 games vs. a team with win percentage of over 60%. The Knicks are 21-39 their last 60 games vs. the Celtics. Boston is 7-1 on Tuesday. The Celtics are 6-2 ATS their last 8 Conference Quarterfinals games. The Celtics are 7-1 ATS on Tuesday. Boston is 4-1 ATS their last 5 home games as home favorites. The Celtics are 4-1 ATS their last 5 home games.

Jim Feist

Houston Astros vs. New York Mets
Play: Houston Astros

Houston has had a better offense than many expected, 12th in baseball in runs scored. Lefty Wandy Rodriguez catches a break, facing a NY Met team that is 20th in batting average (.238) and 22nd in on-base percentage, a team he has a 3.22 ERA against. Mets outfielder Jason Bay will participate in two more rehab games before being activated. Starter Jon Niese had another poor outing, allowing five runs over six innings to the Rockies to raise his ERA to 6.88 for the season. Can't back him or the last place Mets as chalk. Play the Astros.

EZWINNERS

Minnesota Twins -$105

The Baltimore Orioles continue to struggle as they have now lost eight straight games after a 6-1 start to the season. Jake Arrieta gets the start for the Orioles in this game and he is another one of Baltimore's struggling pitchers as he has allowed eleven runs on eleven hits and three walks in his past 9 1/3 innings pitched. The Twins will counter with Carl Pavano on the mound. Pavano was denied a win when Joe Nathan gave up a two run double in the Twins' loss to the Rays last Thursday. Since then, Nathan has been demoted and Matt Capps has taken over the closer role for Minnesota. Pavano has allowed just one earned run over sixteen innings in two starts since giving up seven earned runs in his first start this season. I used the Twins for a free winner yesterday and Minnesota has now won twelve out of the last sixteen meetings between these two teams in Baltimore. Play on Minnesota.

James Patrick Sports

Pirates vs. Marlins

In Tuesday National League action Big Game James Patrick Diamond Club complimentary selection is taking place at Sun Life Stadium in Miami. Take Pittsburgh Pirates behind starter Paul Maholm who has had two of his starts been strong, but he has no win to show for it. The Pirates are 7-0 in Maholms last 7 Tuesday starts.

Larry Ness

Cleveland Indians @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Kansas City Royals

The Cleveland Indians went 71-91 last year and the Kansas city Royals, 69-93. However, these two teams opened a four-game series last night in KC in a battle for first-place. The Indians entered 11-4 and the Royals, 10-5. Last night’s game went extra-innings with the Indians winning 7-3 (10). Cleveland had just THREE winning streaks of at least five games last season but after last night’s win, will go for its fifth straight win Tuesday, after already running off eight in a row from April 3-11. A win tonight would also make the Indians 13-4, which would give the team its best start since opening 14-3 in 1988. Cleveland is batting .326 and averaging 6.8 RPG in its last four games but the Indians’ fast start is due more to the team’s pitching staff this season. The Indians ranked 24th in MLB last year with a team ERA of 4.30 but will enter this game 5th in the majors with a 3.13 ERA. Cleveland opened the 2011 season with back-to-back losses to the White Sox (15-10 and 8-3), with the team’s starters allowing 17 runs. However, in going 12-2 over its last 14 games, Cleveland starters are 9-1 with a 2.03 ERA. Only one starter (Mitch Talbot on April 6) during that stretch has pitched fewer than six innings and not a SINGLE one has surrendered more than three runs. Speaking of Talbot, he placed on the DL on Sunday with a right elbow strain that could sideline him three to four weeks. That gives Jeanmar Gomez a chance to make his season debut plus an opportunity to show that he deserves to stay in the big leagues. Gomez was 4-5 with a 4.68 ERA in 11 starts for Cleveland last season (team was 6-5) and the 23-year-old right-hander was 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in 12.2 innings at Triple-A in April. Gomez actually faced KC in three of his 11 starts last year and pitched well, going 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA (team was 2-1). However, he draws a tough opponent tonight in Bruce Chen. Chen (turns 34 this year) and began his career way back in 1999 with the Braves and the Royals mark his 10th big league team. He pitched surprisingly well last season for KC, appearing in 33 games (23 starts), going 12-7 with a 4.17 ERA (team was 11-12 in his starts but also plus-$254 vs the moneyline). He was far from sharp in his 2011 debut (5 IP / 8 hits / 5 ERs), although KC won that game 12-9. However, he bounced back with an excellent start at Detroit in his second outing, throwing six scoreless innings (three hits and seven Ks) in a 3-1 win. He followed that with eight innings of one-run ball Thursday in a rain-shortened 5-1 victory over Seattle to win his SIXTH consecutive decision, going back to last year (Chen last lost back on Aug 23 of last year, a stretch of 10 consecutive starts / team is 7-3). Thursday’s win was the fourth career complete game of his career and second in his last four starts. The Indians struggled vs left-handed starters last year, going 12-28 while averaging only 4.0 RPG. However, they are 5-1 vs lefties to open 2011, averaging a whopping 7.3 RPG. I had Chen in his start last Thursday and really liked what I saw. Let me also note that KC owned an AL-worst 4.46 bullpen ERA last season but this year’s group comes in at 3.81, even after last night’s poor effort. Gomez is much more of an unknown quantity plus I’m not buying Cleveland’s hot start. I’m backing Chen again and expect a comfortable win.

Scott Spreitzer

Brewers @ Phillies
Pick: Phillies - 1.5

The Brewers were swept by the Washington Nationals over the weekend before beating the Phillies last night. Roy Halladay takes the bump tonight which means the Brewer win streak ends at one, as far as I'm concerned. The Brewers are averaging just 3.8 rpg against righthanders so far this season. Halladay won't let up. The Philly star righty owns terrific numbers to start this season and he heads into tonight's contest with a 2.05 ERA & 1.04 WHIP in 21 appearances at this venue. Randy Wolf counters for the Brewers. The lefthander pitched well last time out. But that was against the mediocre hitting of the Pittsburgh Pirates. His first two starts came against "hit-squads" comparable to the one he'll face tonight. The Phillies rank 2nd in the league in team batting average. Against the Reds (#3) and the Cubs (#4), Wolf got smacked for 8 earned runs and 22 base runners in just 10 innings of work. That's a 7.20 ERA & 2.20 WHIP. The Brewers lost by 9 runs to the Reds and by 3 runs to the Cubs in those two outings. Wolf owns a 5.10 lifetime ERA against the Phils and I expect another tough outing in this one. I'm laying the Run Line, Philly -1 1/2 runs on Tuesday.

David Malinsky

Diamondbacks @ Reds
PICK: Reds -1.5

On Sunday we went to the well with a sequence in which we had one dominant equation – the fact that the Reds were going to be able to score – and had a chance to get a nice payday with only minimal exposure. The split did not cost us a penny. This is more of the same. We see Arizona as being a vulnerable road team once again this season, and note that half of the 86 games the Diamondbacks have played away from Chase Field the last two campaigns have been losses by two runs or more, showing the value point for this return. Armando Galarraga does little on the mound to change that flow.

Galarraga has opened 2-0 in an Arizona uniform, but that shows how kind baseball can be. While he will long be remembered for having that no-hitter taken away, what is more important is that the Tigers gave up on him after a combined 10-19/5.06 over the past two seasons, when he allowed 45 HR’s over 288 IP. And that was pitching about half of his innings at friendly Comerica Park – on the road it was a 3-11/6.16 in which his HR’s per 9 was at 1.69, arguably making him the worst pitcher from opposing mounds in the Major Leagues. But Arizona needed an arm, so he got a chance in spring training. He failed miserably, to an 0-3/7.36 tune, but the D’Backs still needed an arm, so he was put into the rotation. The first two starts have been failures, with a 6.75 allowance and five HR’s over 12 IP, but he was in the right place at the right time to get rewarded with a pair of Wins. That changes tonight. His propensity for the long ball is a major issue vs. this lineup in this ballpark, especially with the Reds getting the boost of the return of Brandon Phillips.

Sam LeCure is a bit of a wild card tonight. His stuff has been dynamic in his first two starts, with 14 K’s vs. only eight Hits + W’s combined, but that has to be tempered a bit by facing weak Houston and San Diego offenses, the latter also coming at Petco Park. But LeCure can not really hurt us here. If he stays on that form then the Run Line sets up well, while a regression makes the Total an easier climb. Our constant is that the Reds should hit both Galarraga and an unimposing Arizona bullpen, which means minimal risk for the sequence, and a chance at a nice payday.