Sam Martin
Tigers at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
Good line value here with the road side, as Seattle continues to struggle at the plate after scoring just three runs yesterday - their sixth game of their last seven with three runs scored or less. And now the struggling Mariners lineup goes up against Phil Coke, who has allowed just two runs combined in his 13 2/3 innings of work covering two starts against Kansas City and Oakland. Detroit has won five of their last seven games overall, and can climb back to .500 with a win here tonight. That's what we expect as Seattle continues to struggle offensively! 5* Play on Detroit.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on NY Mets -135
Dating back to last season, the Astros are now 0-5 in Rodriguez's last 5 starts. The southpaw has always pitched much better at home and the numbers support this claim. Consider that Houston is 8-22 in his last 30 road starts. Houston is a dismal 2-18 if Rodriguez is starting on the road following a team loss last game. The Astros are losing these games by an average score of 5.9 to 2.9. The Astros have lost 9 of the last 12 in this matchup and 20 of the last 27 on the road in this series. They are also just 1-4 in Rodriguez's last 5 starts vs. the Mets. We'll fade the Astros on the road with Rodriguez on the hill tonight.
Craig Trapp
Atlanta Hawks vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Atlanta Hawks +9.5
Not sure why this # is so high as this ATL team is a matchup problem for ORL. ATL has 4 perimeter players that are nearly impossible to stop for ORL. Magic really only have one matchup advantage and that is Howard, and even with 40+ last game they could not win. ATL might not win but they keep this in single digits.
Rob Vinciletti
D-Backs vs. Reds
Play: Over 9.5
What we want to do is play the over for home favorites of of -140 or higher that are off a home favored loss by 5 or more runs if they are taking on an opponent that is off a home win. The The Reds were blown out at home by the Pirates last night setting up this nice totals system. The Reds have played over in 8 of 11 vs losing teams and 6 of 9 at home this season. They average 6 runs per game at home thus far this season. Tonight they face Arizona. The Diamondbacks are averaging 6 runs per game over their last 7 games and have gone over in 4 of their last 5 vs losing teams. The Pitching match up pits A. Galarraga vs S. Lecure. Galarraga has a 6.75 era this season and has always struggled on the road. Lecure does not go far into games and has allowed 2 runs in 5 innings in lone home start. Not exactly Seaver vs Carlton here tonight. Look for this one to go over the total tonight.
Info Plays
3* Yankees -108
Reasons why Yankees will cover:
1) Yankees starter A.J. Burnett is 8-0 in his last 13 April starts with New York. Burnett will take on a Toronto offense that hasn't scored more than a single run in each of their last three games.
2) Blue Jays starter Kyle Drabek is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA, but his three starts this season have came against the likes of Twins, Angels, and Mariner. Three terrible offenses. The Yankees are averaging over 6 runs a game against right handed starters and are 105-75 against the money line in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better since 1997.
3) Play against all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (Toronto) - poor offensive team - scoring <=4.7 runs/game on the season (AL), after a loss by 8 runs or more. It's 104-35 (75%) over the last 5 seasons.
Jack Jones
Texas Rangers -1.5
Although the Texas Rangers accomplished plenty last season, they never won eight straight in Arlington. The Rangers look to improve to 8-0 at home Tuesday night when they continue their three-game set with the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels have dropped 14 of their last 20 in Arlington. Texas starter Colby Lewis is coming off a tremendous season which saw him post a 3.00 ERA in two starts against the Angels in 2010. Lewis is off to a bit of a slow start this season at 1-1 with a 5.25 ERA, but he's been much sharper than Angels starter Matt Palmer.
Palmer is 0-0 with a 7.71 ERA and 2.355 WHIP this season for Los Angeles. Lewis has only given up 15 base runners in 12 innings for a 1.250 WHIP. The Rangers are 7-0 at home this season, hitting .301 and scoring 7.0 RPG. Opponents are only hitting .219 and scoring 3.0 RPG in Arlington this year. Texas has won by 2 runs or more in six of their seven home games this season. The Rangers are 9-1 vs. AL teams allowing 3.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. They are outscoring these opponents by 3.4 RPG. Take Texas on the Run Line Tuesday.
BEN BURNS
San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs
PICK: San Diego Padres
I won with the Cubs in yesterday's series opener. It wasn't "easy" but Chicago eventually won by a score of 1-0, in 10 innings. Today, however, I feel the value lies the other way.
Yesterday, with SD coming off a Sunday victory and the Cubs coming off a Sunday loss, I mentioned the following: "The Padres, who won yesterday afternoon, are 1-5 (-4.6) when off a victory ... On the other hand, the Cubs, who lost yesterday afternoon, are 4-3 (+1.5) when playing under the lights and 6-1 off a loss."
Today, however, the opposite is true. While the Padres are a solid 5-3 (+2) when off a loss, note that the Cubs are an ugly 1-6 (-6.3) when off a victory. An inability to string together victories has long plagued the Cubs. Indeed, they're 539-584 (-154.8!) the last 1100+ times they were off a victory, including 76-91 (-37.9) in that situation the past few seasons.
It should also be noted that the Cubs are a money-burning 46-69 (-40.8) the last 100+ times that they were off a shutout win.
The Padres are 60-51 (+15.5) against southpaw starters the past few seasons and they should have some success against this one.
James Russell goes for Chicago and he allowed seven hits and five runs (4 earned) in just 1 2/3 innings in his lone start. That translates to a 21.56 ERA and 4.192 WHIP!
Moseley, on the other hand, has a 1.83 ERA and 1.271 WHIP. That includes a superb 1.32 ERA and 1.024 WHIP in his two road starts.
While the Padres have now been blanked four times already this season, note that they've gone 3-0 in the following game, winning by scores of 3-1, 7-2 and 4-2.
I successfully played against the Padres (while also cashing with the under in the same game) in Moseley's last start. He pitched very well though - but got no run support, losing 1-0. I expect him to receive considerably more support here and for the Padres to bounce back and even up the series. Consider San Diego.
TEDDY COVERS
Cleveland Indians @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Kansas City Royals
We cashed a ticket supporting Kansas City’s Bruce Chen the last time he took the mound; a ‘right side’ 5-1 win against Seattle in which Chen threw eight innings of six hit ball without allowing an earned run. Here’s an excerpt from my write-up on that game:
“Bruce Chen isn’t respect by the betting markets one iota, but the markets appear to be missing Chen’s current reality. He threw six innings of three hit, seven strikeout ball against the Tigers in his last outing. In his last five starts of the 2010 season, Chen allowed a grand total of seven runs and 20 hits in 33.2 innings of work. Expect more of the same here.”
Chen owned this Cleveland lineup last year, winning all three of his decisions against the Tribe. That doesn’t include his 6.2 inning, four hit shutout effort against them in September, a no-decision. And Chen is capable of eating up innings on a night where both teams bullpens will be shorthanded following last night’s extra inning affair.
The Indians bullpen is likely to come into play here with Jeanmar Gomez getting called up from the minors to make this start. Gomez had eleven starts down the stretch for Cleveland last year, but he finished the sixth inning only four times and recorded an out in the seventh only once. It’s worth noting that in his 12th big league start, this will be the fourth time he’s faced the Royals lineup, giving KC a legitimate edge against a hurler that they’re already quite familiar with.
KC hasn’t lost a series yet this season, and they are 8-3 in their last eleven games at Kaufmann Stadium. They haven’t lost three in a row in 2011, and we can expect their current two game skid to end tonight. 2* Take Kansas City.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on San Diego Padres +103
It has been extremely profitable to fade the Cubs when they are coming off a win. In fact, Chicago is just 20-41 in its last 61 games following a victory. It is also worth noting that Chicago is 3-11 in its last 14 home games after a one run win and 6-18 in its last 24 home games after a win by 2 runs or less. Russell is set to make his second spot start for the Cubs. The left-hander didn't make it out of the second inning in his first, surrendering five runs and seven hits in 1 2-3 innings of an 11-2 defeat at Houston. San Diego's Moseley, who has an ERA of just 1.83 on the season, should finally get some run support tonight. Take the Padres.
Black Widow
1* on Orlando Magic -9
After dropping Game 1 at home to the Atlanta Hawks, we look for the Orlando Magic to come out very hungry and motivated to get Game 2. At the same time, look for the Hawks to suffer a bit of a letdown after gaining home-court advantage in this series with their Game 1 victory. Orlando had allowed less than 100 points in 15 straight postseason games before the Hawks put up 103 on them in Game 1. This will only fuel the fire more for the Magic, and Atlanta is not about to shoot 51 percent again. The Hawks are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 playoff games as an underdog. The Magic are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as a favorite. Take the Magic and lay the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Hawks/Magic OVER 183
The Over is 96-58 (62.3%) in Game 2 of a playoff series the last 5 seasons. Also, plays Over on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 42-16 (72.4%) the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have combined to score an average of 192.6 total points. Lastly, plays Over on road teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (ATLANTA) off a road win against a division rival and well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days - are 34-10 (77.3%) since 1996. Teams fitting this system are combining with their opponent to score 193.8 points on average. Bet the Over.
SPORTS WAGERS
Cleveland +111 over KANSAS CITY
The Indians are now 12-4, they’ve won four in a row after a recent seven-game winning streak and in two games since returning from a lengthy stint on the DL, Grady Sizemore is 5 for 9 with two doubles, a homer and two RBIs. The Indians are also 5-1 against southpaws and will face one here in Bruce Chen. Chen is 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA but don’t buy into it. In his last game against the Mariners, Chen went eight full innings and struck out one batter. Everything the M’s hit (they hit every ball) was right at someone. There is nothing that stands out about Chen in his beneath the surface stats and we expect a noticeable decline in his surface stats. Chen’s groundball/fly-ball ratio is 38%/54%. His xERA is 4.97. Big warning signs say Chen is unlikely to find the same magic that allowed him to outpitch his typically mediocre skills again in 2011. Jeanmar Gomez went 4-5 with a 4.68 ERA in 57.2 IP for the Indians last year. He had four good starts to begin his MLB career, but then things went south. He gets his second crack at the majors after a strong start at AAA-Columbus in which he posted a 2-0 record with a 1.42 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 11 K/3 BB in 12.2 frames. He’s obviously improved his craft and thus, we much prefer and up n comer to the overrated veteran. Play: Cleveland +111 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago –104 over TAMPA BAY
With three consecutive seasons of double-digit wins and a sub-4.00 ERA, John Danks seems like he should be getting more attention. Is this the year he gets noticed? The good news, in terms of the price, is that Danks is still pitching under the radar. He’s 0-1 in three starts but he’s pitched well enough to have at least two wins and maybe three. He’s been outstanding against righties and the Rays are 0-2 at home against lefties. Danks's bullpen stuck him with a no-decision after a fantastic start Wednesday against the Athletics. Danks went eight innings, allowing only one run on five hits and striking out seven. He owns a 3.15 ERA and 1.25 WHIP after three starts and he continues to be one of the most consistent and reliable starters in the league. James Shields has had nothing but grief against the Chisox his entire career with a 5.53 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Current Sox hitters have 162 career AB’s against Shields and they’ve already seen him once this season. In that game Shields went six full and did not whiff a single batter. He also surrendered five runs and allowed eight hits with three of those knocks going yard. Shields can’t fool this foe while his counterpart should dazzle. Play: Chicago –107 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
*In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
SPORTS WAGERS
Portland +158 over DALLAS
The Mavericks pulled one out of their hats on Saturday when they rallied from six down with under three minutes to go to win by a misleading seven points. What’s really interesting about this game is the updated series line. Dallas opened as a –186 favorite to win this series. After winning game one and being up 1-0 in the series, the oddsmakers increased the series price by only 40 cents (the pointspread has also dropped by a couple of points). By contrast, the Thunder series price went up 80 cents and the Celtics series price went up two dollars. What that strongly suggests is the oddsmakers saw something they really didn’t like about the Mav’s and who can blame them. Dallas needed a furious fourth quarter, not to mention six three-pointers from Jason Kidd to pull off the comeback. If you were thinking of playing Dallas and laying 3½-points we urge you to back-off. The updated series price is sending too strong of a message. Play: Portland +158 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
San Jose -½ +143 over LOS ANGELES
It's perplexing how a team as strong as the Sharks could come out so unbelievably flat in a playoff game, especially one against a division rival, playing without two essential centers. Simply put, the Sharks were dreadful and they know it. If the Sharks are truly a contender, tonight’s game could be a defining moment for them. The NHL playoffs is lined with champions that took nights off. Last season, Chicago lost to Vancouver 5-1 in game one. No big deal - Blackhawks turned it around and eliminated the Canucks in Game 6. In 2009, the Penguins lost 5-0 to the Red Wings in the pivotal game 5. The Penguins were outplayed in every facet of the game but they shocked the hockey world and overcame the adversity by winning the next two games to claim their next Stanley Cup championship. That 4-0 loss in game two allows San Jose to rally behind a forgetful experience that they shared together. The Sharks will rebound tonight. They have to take advantage of their superior forward and scoring depth. Tonight we find out who the Sharkies are and we expect them to be strutting their best stuff. Play: San Jose -½ +143 (Risking 2 units).
Nelly
Houston + over NY Mets
Houston and New York are tied at 5-11 to bring up the rear in the National League but the Astros have been playing better ball of late. Houston is 4-4 in the last right games and the run production has been surprisingly good for what has been expected to be one of the worst scoring teams in the league. Houston has scored nearly five runs per game in the last ten games and Houston's pitching has been solid in that timeframe with a 3.70 ERA. In his career Wandy Rodriguez has generally been a better pitcher at home but so far this year he has struggled in any venue. Rodriguez owns a 7.31 ERA for the season but he allowed seven runs in four innings in his first start of the season to skew those numbers. He owns a 3.7:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and he has allowed just one home run so his numbers should eventually level out. Rodriguez has had a 3.60 ERA or better each of the last three seasons as he has been one of the better pitchers in the NL Central and the slow start should not raise too much alarm. The Mets broke a seven-game losing streak on Sunday with a 3-2 win over Atlanta but scoring runs has been a problem for New York and the pitching has been among the worst in the league. The Mets have scored four or fewer runs in six of the last eight games but New York has allowed at least four runs in nine of the last ten. The Mets have a 5.70 bullpen ERA at home despite Citi Field's reputation for low-scoring and the Mets are hitting just .214 in the last ten games to provide no help to the staff. Houston meanwhile is hitting .284 in the last ten games with particular success against left-handers, batting .304 for the season against southpaws. Jonathan Niese owns a 6.88 ERA and his numbers are more troubling than those for Rodriguez. In his last two starts he has allowed eleven runs in ten innings and the Mets are 2-8 in his last ten starts going back to last season. The Mets have not warranted favoritism in any match-up and Houston may break through with another road win Tuesday night.