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Texas Rangers -1½FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston is a team that is bound to lose 100 games for the third consecutive season. They pulled off a surprising win last night but their luck has run out already when they face off against Yu Darvish today. Darvish finished 2012 with a 16-9 record and a 3.90 ERA. The Rangers have high hopes for an even better 2013 from Darvish as this young pitcher games more experience.
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Houston is 19-62 when playing as an underdog of +150 or more. Texas should be able to take batting practice against the horrible Houston bullpen and they should not have any problems getting runs on the board against Lucas Harrel who finished 2012 with an 11-11 record in 32 starts. If Harrell doesn’t blow this game the Astros bullpen will making the Rangers on the run line a value play.
Wunderdog
New York Knicks at Miami
Pick: Under 196.5
This is a big game for the Knicks. They are playing their best basketball of the season, winning eight straight games, and could be on a collision course with Miami for the Eastern Conference Finals. The Knicks have done a great job this season in matching the defensive intensity of the Heat, as they have held them to 91.7 points per game in the three meetings this season. The Knicks have not allowed any team more than 102 points in the eight-game winning streak, and I expect them to bring it on defense here especially with LeBron, Wade and Chalmers all likely out for this game. Miami has allowed 100+ points just two times in their last 18 games, with no one scoring over 103, so this total looks a little too ambitious to me. The Knicks are 11-3-1 to the UNDER in their last 15 vs. a winning team, and the UNDER is an identical 11-3-1 in the last 15 meetings between these clubs. In the Eric Spoelstra era, the Heat are 105-82 UNDER to a total set in the 190s and 104-77 UNDER after back-to-back wins. Go with the UNDER.
MLB Predictions
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 +128
Like I said in preseason I'm a Blue Jays fan and I will be watching my wagers on them closely to make sure I've got a good record when betting on their games. And I won't be afraid to bet against them either. But tonight we are taking them by 2 on the run line in their season opener. This is season the 20 year anniversary of their last World Series, and the Blue Jays have loaded up their lineup in the off season with trades and free agency. Included in their new acquisitions was NL Cy Young winner R.A Dickey. Dickey will get the opening day start for the Blue Jays after posting a 20-6 record with a 2.73 ERA, .226 opponents batting average (OBA) and 1.05 WHIP last season with the Mets. He will be up against Justin Masterson who had a good opening day last year against the Blue Jays (although the Indians lost). This time around Masterson wil face a much tougher lineup and will have to pitch in a loud Rogers Centre. Last year Masterson went 11-15 with a 4.93 ERA, .269 OBA, and 1.45 WHIP. To finish off the season last year the Indians were 18-45 over their last 63 games and 15-39 in their last 54 road games. One stat I really like in Toronto's favor is that Masterson has a career .292 OBA against left handed hitters, and the Blue Jays will have 6 left handed or switch hitters in their Opening Day line up. Cleveland went out and did a good job with free agency themselves, but their rotation is questionable and the oddsmakers have them struggling again this year. Note that the Blue Jays are 7-2 in their last 9 meetings vs the Indians. I'm on the Blue Jays to win by a couple runs here in their home opener.
Sam Martin
Iowa at Maryland
Prediction: Iowa
We're going to lay the small number with Iowa tonight in the second NIT Semifinal, as we think their road offense is a bit more reliable than Maryland's. The Terps were just 7-9 straight up away from home this season, with their scoring falling five points per game down from their season average. Their shooting percentage also dropped considerably, shooting 46.5% on the season but just 42% away from home. They have played just one road game in this NIT Tournament, escaping with a one-point win at Alabama despite owning a +10% shooting edge and scoring just 58 points. They won't be so lucky tonight as Iowa does just enough offensively to get by.
Freddy Wills
Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Oakland Athletics
I really expected the A's to put together a better performance last night vs. Felix Hernandez, but again like I said he's the best pitcher in baseball. Tonight will be a different story with Iwakuma taking the mound. Iwakuma had a poor outing vs. the A's in spring training and he gave up 10 BR in 3.2 IP along with 4 ER in a start last year. The Mariners are still just 1-7 in their last 8 meetings with the A's while Oakland is 41-17 in their last 58 home games. I really like the A's as a team and I think they will come back tonight and beat a pitcher they are supposed to with arguably one of their better pitchers on the mound. Jarrod Parker had a rough spring, but he was playing around a lot with new pitches and now it's back to basics for him which should mean more quality starts. Parker's control improved late last season which is something I think carries over into this season and at home where he had a 2.61 ERA a year ago. Seattle's roster has 51 AB against him with a .448 OPS. Both of these pitchers gave up over 3 BB's per 9 a year ago and the difference will be Oakland was one of the better teams (2nd) at laying off pitches outside the zone so they should work themselves into good counts. They also were #1 in fly ball % at 39.6% and I bring that up because there were only 4 pitchers with at least 125 IP last year that had higher HR/FB % than Iwakuma at 17%. The A's have some pop ranking 11th with 11.9% HR/FB and Cespedes is 2-4 with a HR vs. Iwakuma. I think the A's are a nice match up here.
Teddy Covers
St. Louis vs. Arizona
Pick: Arizona
Kirk Gibson gets his teams ready for the start of the season. Arizona has won seven straight season openers, including their 15 hit barrage win over the Cardinals yesterday. Last year, they won four straight to open the campaign. And tonight’s game looks like another positive expectation betting opportunity in support of one of the more undervalued teams in the majors.
Two years ago, the D-backs came out of nowhere to win the NL West. But they stumbled back to .500 last year following a disastrous post- All Star Break swoon. I’m expecting a winning season from Arizona in 2013 – their lineup is potent, their bullpen solid and their starting pitching is good enough to compete. Tonight’s starter, Trevor Cahill, dominated in Cactus League play this spring: a 1.86 ERA and 25 strikeouts over 19.1 innings of work. And Cahill shut down St Louis in both of his previous career starts against them, holding more potent Cardinals lineups than this one to just three runs in those two outings.
St Louis won 90 regular season games and went on to win the World Series in 2011. Last year, following the departure of longtime manager Tony LaRussa and future Hall of Fame slugger Albert Pujols, the Cardinals declined, lucky to slip into the playoffs at all. This year’s lineup certainly won’t scare opposing pitchers, and their bullpen isn’t what it was when they were winning championships.
Tonight’s starter, Jamie Garcia, had a 2.82 ERA at home last year, but a 5.02 ERA on the road. Those numbers are right on par with career stats that clearly show he’s only worth supporting at Busch Stadium in St Louis – his ERA, WHIP and batting average against show a clear, long term home/road dichotomy. This is a very reasonable price to support the better team at home.
Bruce Marshall
East Carolina vs. Weber St.
Pick: Weber St.
Big Sky sources have warned not to discredit Weber State simply because conference champ Montana (which was minus top scorer Mathias Ward) was dismantled so thoroughly in the NCAA regionals at San Jose against Final Four-bound Syracuse. For what it’s worth, insiders are convinced the Wildcats could have made a much better game of it against the Orange, and they contend that Weber State was simply unfortunate in that it had to play the conference tourney on the Grizzlies’ home court in Missoula. The Wildcats finished a game behind Montana in the Sky race and had to go on the road in the league tourney, but it’s worth noting that the Wildcats dismantled the Grizzlies 87-63 when getting them in Ogden before that bitter loss in the finale on March 16 at Missoula.
But the deal in this CIT finale vs. East Carolina is much different, because it’s Weber State with the home edge at the Dee Events Center, where the Wildcats have won 16 in a row since a competitive mid-December loss to high-powered BYU and have dominated CIT foes Cal Poly, Air Force, and Oral Roberts in earlier rounds of this event, with a victory margin of 24 ppg. Moreover, pro scouts tell us that the best NBA prospect on the floor is going to be explosive Wildcat G Davion Berry (15.2 ppg), a former Cal State Monterey Bay Sea Otter who transferred to Ogden and is the latest “Oakland connection” to the Wildcats—including recent star G Damian Lillard, now it lighting up with the Portland Trail Blazers and perhaps on his way to NBA Rookie of the Year honors, as well as sr. F Frank Otis (63% FGs!), whose route from Oak-Town to Ogden took a detour thru SMU. The Pirates (77 ppg) also prefer to push the pace behind former Mizzou sr. transfer PG Miguel Paul (13 ppg 7.2 apg, the latter ranking 7th nationally), who is off a solid 19-point effort in the team’s 81-58 semifinal romp past Evansville. But Paul was an ice-cold 5 of 28 from the floor in the preceding three games, and backcourt sparkplug and former Rhode Island transfer Akeem Richmond has completely lost his shooting eye, missing 24 of 29 FG attempts over the past three games, in which ECU has also hit only 29.6% (16 of 54) beyond the arc. The Pirates do own an active frontline, paced by their own NBA prospect, slinky 6-8 F Maurice Kemp (18.8 ppg). But note how the Wildcats put the clamps on Northern Iowa’s accomplished frontliners Seth Tuttle and Jake Koch, who combined to make just 8 of 23 from the floor in Weber’s impressive semifinal road win at Cedar Falls, where the Panthers had beaten both Final Four Wichita State and Valley champ Creighton this season.
If ECU wants to run with Weber State, it had better be shooting at a higher percentage, because the senior-laden Wildcats connect on a nation’s best 50.5% of their FG attempts, while completing a rare “tripleville trifecta” by leading the nation in 3-point shooting (41.6%) and also in 3-point defense (allowing only 27.6% beyond the arc). Capable Northern Iowa was harassed all night last Saturday and connected on only 3 of its 18 triples in Weber’s 59-56 win. While Berry (41.1% treys) is a dangerous shot creator, bombs-away sr. Scott Bamforth is a spot-shooter deluxe who ranks 4th nationally (45.4%) in 3-point accuracy. Meanwhile, the aforementioned Otis (9 ppg) and rugged 6-10, 255 C Scott Tresnak (12 ppg & 57% from the floor) are adept at scooping up the loose change around the bucket as their teammates fire away from the perimeter. At a healthy 76 ppg, Weber will gladly engage ECU in a full-court game, and the Wildcats are used to extending scorelines, too, as their +14.7 win margin ranks among the nation’s best. Ogden is a long way from Greenville for the visiting Pirates.
Bryan Power
San Francisco vs. LA Dodgers
Pick: San Francisco
The World Series Champion Giants ran into a red-hot Clayton Kershaw in yesterday's season opener, but I feel they will be able to bounce back from that 4-0 loss tonight against Hyun-jin Ryu, a Korean native making his MLB debut. No player in MLB history has ever gone straight from the Korean leagues to MLB, so this is uncharted waters.....
Meanwhile, we know what we're getting with Giants lefty Madison Bumgarner, whose 16 wins were tied for the team lead a year ago. In seven career starts vs. the Dogers, he is 5-2 with a 3.05 ERA. His last appearance in Dodgers Stadium was last August when he tossed eight scoreless innings, giving up just four hits, while striking out 10 and walking no one. Let's not forget that until a Kershaw home run yesterday, the Dodgers were doing nothing offensively and they had only seven hits for the game, getting shut out for six innings by Giants starter Matt Cain.
The Giants are a perfect 7-0 the last two seasons on the road following a game where they had four or less hits. They also went 40-19 vs. lefties in 2012. The pressure is on Ryu Tuesday night and I think it will be too much.
Jeff Alexander
Milwaukee Brewers -140
The Rockies are only 60-115 when listed as an underdog of +100 or higher since the beginning of the 2011 season. The Brewers are 112-58 in all home games during this span, including 65-24 when listed as a favorite of -125 to -175. Bet the Brew Crew at home.
SPORTS WAGERS
Florida +136 over TAMPA BAY
OT Included. Let’s start off by saying that Mathieu Garon is not a front-line, #1 NHL goaltender. The Lightning don’t have many options in who they stick between the pipes and that’s the main reason this team is likely going to miss the playoffs. With Garon in net, the Lightning are about as unappealing a favorite as there is in the NHL. Poor defense doesn’t help the Bolts cause either. Over its past four games, Tampa has surrendered five goals to both New Jersey and Ottawa and while the results on the ice have been somewhat encouraging, the play on the ice has been anything but.
The Panthers injury woes are well-documented. They’re not getting any significant bodies back for this one but they do have a legit #1 goaltender in Jakob Markstrom and when you have a significant edge in net, you always have a chance to win. Additionally, the Panthers are playing well. They’ve won two straight over Buffalo and New Jersey while scoring eight times over those two contests. Against Buffalo, Florida fired away 40 shots on net and against New Jersey, a team that is known for cutting down opponents scoring chances and shots, the Panthers had 30 shots on net. Prior to that pair, the Panthers went into Toronto and lost 3-2 after firing away 42 shots on net. In other words, this offense is creating chances and it’s beginning to pay off. Lastly, the Panthers have dropped seven in a row to the Lightning. On March 12, the last time these two met, Florida outshot the Bolts 39-13 and lost 3-2. This visitor is improved since then and they figure to give it their all tonight in an attempt to get this proverbial monkey of their back. Even elite teams have difficulty defeating the same team over and over. The Bolts are not close to being elite and we’re suggesting that the Panthers will end their ugly drought against this in-state rival.