SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Milwaukee (0-1 SU and ATS) at Atlanta (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Hawks, winners of five in a row, look to take a 2-0 lead in this best-of-7 first-round series when they once again host the Bucks at Philips Arena.
Atlanta had little trouble Saturday in the series opener, leading by 23 points at halftime and coasting to a 102-92 victory as an 8½-point home favorite. The Hawks shot a solid 53.9 percent from the floor (41 of 76), hitting 6 of 11 from three-point range (54.5 percent), and six players scored in double figures, paced by Joe Johnson’s 22 points. Atlanta has covered in four straight during its five-game winning streak.
Milwaukee has now dropped three of its last four SU and ATS, though it led the league in the regular season with a 52-28-2 ATS record. The Bucks shot a respectable 45.1 percent in Game 1 (37 of 82), but were just 6 of 20 from long distance (30 percent), with rookie Brandon Jennings the only fully effective scorer (34 points, 14 of 25 from the field, 4 of 6 from three-point range).
The Bucks are 18-24 SU on the road this year – despite averaging almost exactly as many points as they allow (95.4-95.5) – but they are 28-13-1 ATS in those contests. Atlanta is 35-7 SU (26-16 ATS) at Philips Arena, outscoring visitors by nearly nine points per game (104.5-95.9).
Atlanta is 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five meetings with Milwaukee, and the chalk is on a 10-3-1 ATS tear in the last 14 contests between these two. The Hawks’ Game 1 win ended a 4-0 ATS surge by the road team in this rivalry, and the SU winner is on a 12-3-1 ATS roll. Also, in Atlanta’s last 19 playoff tilts, the SU winner is a superb 18-0-1 ATS.
The Hawks are on pointspread runs of 6-2 at home, 8-1 against the Central Division, 8-1 against winning teams, 11-2 following a SU win, 5-1 after a spread-cover and 4-1 in first-round playoff games. The Bucks are on a 1-7-1 ATS dive in first-round playoff games, but are otherwise on a slew of pointspread upswings, including 32-11-2 overall, 21-6-1 on the road, 34-16-2 in the Eastern Conference and 13-4 as an underdog..
The total has gone high in nine straight meetings overall between these two teams and five in a row in Atlanta, with Saturday’s game clearing the 186½-point price. Atlanta is also on “over” runs of 15-3 after a SU win, 5-1 after two days off and 5-1 against winning teams, but the under is 5-2 in the Hawks’ last seven against the Central Division.
Milwaukee is on “over” stretches of 5-1 overall, 8-0 against winning teams, 13-3-2 in first-round playoff games and 5-0 as a playoff pup, though the under is 9-4 in the Bucks’ last 13 against the Southeast Division and 5-2 with Milwaukee coming off a two-day break.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and OVER
Miami (0-1 SU and ATS) at Boston (1-0 SU and ATS)
In a series quickly ripe with animosity that has already led to one suspension, the Heat will try to bounce back from their Game 1 loss when they face the Celtics at the TD Garden.
Miami, which entered the postseason on an 18-4 tear (13-8-1 ATS), including an eight-game road winning streak, and appeared prime for an upset in the series opener Saturday, taking a 14-point lead midway through the third quarter. But the Heat collapsed from there and lost 85-76 as a 4½-point road underdog, halting a 12-1 SU roll (8-4-1 ATS). Miami hit just 31 of 78 shots (39.7 percent), including 4 of 17 from three-point range (23.5 percent). Dwyane Wade led all scorers with 26 points, but he was 0-for-4 from long distance.
Boston snapped a 3-7 SU and ATS purge with the Game 1 victory, outscoring Miami 21-10 in the fourth quarter to complete the comeback. Nobody scored more than 16 points, but four players reached double figures – compared with two for the Heat – and the C’s had a huge edge at the free-throw line, hitting 22 of 28, while Miami had just 13 attempts and made 10.
Paul Pierce led the Celts with 16 points, and Kevin Garnett had 15 points and nine rebounds, but he won’t be around for Game 2. Garnett got into a late-game skirmish with Quentin Richardson, throwing an elbow that led to a one-game suspension.
Despite seeing their eight-game road winning streak halted in Game 1, the Heat are still 23-19 SU (24-18 ATS) as a visitor this year. The Celtics, meanwhile, are 25-17 SU at home, but remain a meager 13-28-1 ATS at the Garden.
Boston has owned this rivalry lately, winning six in a row (4-2 ATS) and 12 of the last 13 (9-4 ATS). The favorite has covered in nine of the last 11 meetings, but the road team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 contests. The SU winner has covered the number in nine of the last 11 clashes. Also, the SU winner is on an 8-0 ATS roll in Miami’s last eight postseason affairs and is 11-3-1 ATS in Boston’s last 15 playoff outings.
The Heat are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 opening-round playoff games and are in a 1-5-1 ATS funk as a postseason ‘dog, but they also sport several positive ATS streaks, including 7-2 on the highway and 8-4 as an underdog. The Celts are on ATS slides of 4-8 overall, 21-44-1 at home, 2-6 as a favorite, 21-42 as a home chalk, 0-6 after a SU win and 0-5 after a spread-cover, though they also carry ATS upswings of 16-7 as a favorite of less than five points and 4-1-1 in first-round playoff games.
Miami is on “under” surges of 12-4-2 on the road, 9-0 when going on two days’ rest, 9-2-1 as a road pup and 5-1 in first-round playoff games. However, the over has hit in four of the Heat’s last six overall and five of its last seven against winning teams. Boston carries “over” streaks of 7-3 overall, 5-1 at home, 4-1 in first-round playoff games, but the under has been the play in four of its last five after a SU win and nine of its last 12 after a spread-cover.
In addition, the total has cleared the posted price in five of the last seven meetings between these rivals, but the under is on a 12-4-1 run in the last 17 matchups in Beantown.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Oklahoma City (0-1 SU and ATS) at L.A. Lakers (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Lakers began their quest for a second straight NBA title with a comfortable win over the Thunder on Sunday and now will try to take a 2-0 lead in this best-of-7 opening round Western Conference series inside the Staples Center.
Defense keyed L.A.’s 87-79 win in Game 1 as it narrowly cashed as 7½-point favorites. The Lakers were able to hold regular-season scoring champion Kevin Durant to just 7-for-24 shooting, even though he ended up with 24 points, hitting 9-for-11 from the free-throw line. Los Angeles never trailed in the game, opening with a 27-13 first quarter. Kobe Bryant finished with 21 points while Pau Gasol chipped in 19 points and 13 rebounds.
Lakers coach Phil Jackson has guided his teams to 44 series victories in as many tries after winning Game 1.
Oklahoma City had the biggest one-season turnaround in NBA history, thanks to Durant’s 30.1 points and 7.6 rebounds per contest. He had 30 points or more in each of the final seven regular-season games, hitting the 40-point mark in three of those seven. However, the Thunder enter Game 2 having dropped five of their last seven overall (3-4 ATS).
The top seed in the Western Conference, the Lakers were just 3-6 (2-7 ATS) to close the regular season with Bryant missing several meaningless games with a variety of nagging injuries. They ended a three-game ATS drought with Sunday’s narrow spread-cover.
Oklahoma City was 23-18 (26-15 ATS) on the highway in the regular season, but including Sunday it has now lost four straight roadies (1-3 ATS). Los Angeles is now 35-7 inside Staples Center, but just 17-23-2 ATS.
Sunday was the Thunder’s first playoff game since 2005 when the franchise was the Seattle SuperSonics and they reached the Western Conference semifinals, losing to the Spurs 4-2 (3-3 ATS). The Lakers’ march to the title last season included series wins of 4-1 (2-3 ATS) over the Jazz, 4-3 (SU and ATS) over the Rockets, 4-2 (3-3 ATS) over the Nuggets and 4-1 (SU and ATS) over the Magic in the NBA Finals. L.A. has reached the postseason five straight times and 15 times in the last 16 years.
The Lakers have won 13 of the last 14 (6-8 ATS) in this rivalry. The Thunder cashed in three of four regular-season meetings and they’re still 5-3-1 ATS in their last nine visits to the Staples Center.
Oklahoma City is on several positive ATS runs, including 13-4 as a ‘dog of five to 10½ points, 8-4 as a road ‘dog, 20-9 on the road against teams with a winning home record, 18-9 against winning teams and 37-17-1 on Tuesday. Los Angeles is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 first-round games, but otherwise it carries several negative ATS trends, including 2-5 overall, 2-6 at home, 2-4 as a favorite, 2-5 against Western Conference squads and 4-10 on Tuesday.
The Thunder are on “over” streaks of 8-3 overall, 7-1 on the road, 5-1 as a road ‘dog and 12-3-1 on Tuesdays The Lakers are on a plethora of “under” runs, including 6-2 overall, 6-1 at home, 18-8 as a favorite and 17-6 against Western Conference teams.
In this series, the “under” has cashed in six of the last eight meetings, with Game 1 stay way under the 197-point total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Portland (1-0 SU and ATS) at Phoenix (0-1 SU and ATS)
After stealing Game 1 from the Suns on Sunday, the underdog Trail Blazers will try to go up 2-0 when this best-of-7 Western Conference opening round series resumes inside the US Airways Center.
Portland outscored the Suns 35-28 in the final quarter to pull off the Game 1 upset, winning 105-100 as an 8½-point underdog – the only road team and underdog to open the playoffs with a victory. Andre Miller had a career-playoff high 31 points, including two key free throws to seal it, and dished out eight assists while LaMarcus Aldridge added 22 points and Marcus Camby grabbed 17 rebounds. The Blazers contained Phoenix All-Star forward Amare Stoudemire, who went just 8-for-19 from the field for 18 points after averaging more than 26 points since the All-Star break.
Portland, which went 13-4 (9-7-1 ATS) down the stretch to get the No. 6 seed, scored the Game 1 upset without the services of All-Star point guard Brandon Roy, who was lost at the end of the regular season with a knee injury. Roy will at least miss this entire first-round series.
The Suns went 22-5 (19-7-1 ATS) after Feb. 18, including a 10-game winning streak (7-2-1 ATS) from mid March and into early April. They closed the season with three consecutive SU and ATS wins but were only able to get four players in double-digit scoring Sunday.
The Blazers are 25-17 (26-15-1 ATS) on the road, and have now won six of their last seven roadies (4-3 ATS). Phoenix is 32-10 (25-16-1 ATS) in the desert, but their eight-game home winning streak (7-0-1 ATS) came to a halt Sunday.
Portland ended a six-year playoff drought last year, but went one-and-done, falling 4-2 to the Rockets (3-3 ATS) in the opening round. Meanwhile, Phoenix is back in the postseason after missing out last year. This is the Suns’ 19th postseason appearances in the last 22 years.
The Trail Blazers have now won five of the last six series clashes with the Suns (5-0-1 ATS), including three of four this season (3-0-1 ATS). Portland has also won two of three in Phoenix (2-0-1 ATS). The favorite is still on an 18-7-2 ATS run in this rivalry, and the Suns remain 12-6-2 ATS in the last 20 meetings in Phoenix.
Portland brings some positive ATS runs into the playoffs, including 16-6-1 on the road, 9-2 as a playoff underdog and 15-6-1 on the road against teams with winning home records. The Suns are on a bunch of ATS surges, including 25-10-1 overall, 12-4-1 at home, 18-8-1 as a favorite, 19-8-1 against the Western Conference, 13-4-1 as a home favorite, 6-1-1 at home against teams with winning road records and 37-18-1 on Tuesday.
The Blazers have topped the total in seven of nine as an underdog of five to 10½ points and 19 of 27 on the road against teams with winning home records, but they are on “under” runs of 8-4 as an underdog overall and 4-1 after a spread-cover. Phoenix is on “over” runs of 12-5 as a favorite and 9-2 as a chalk of five and 10½ points, but it is also on “under” streaks of 5-2 against Northwest Division teams and 5-2 after a day off.
In this series, the “under” has cashed in four of the last six played in Phoenix, including Sunday’s contest that came up just short of the 208-point total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PORTLAND
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia (8-4) at Atlanta (7-5)
The Phillies open a three-game series at Turner Field when they send Kyle Kendrick (0-0, 17.47 ERA) to the mound opposite the Braves’ Tommy Hanson (1-1, 2.38) in a battle of N.L. East rivals.
After exploding for 77 runs in its first 10 games (winning eight of them), Philadelphia was held to just a single run in a pair of weekend home losses to the Marlins (5-1 on Saturday; 2-0 on Sunday). The Phillies finished their first homestand at 3-3 after starting the year with a 5-1 road trip. The two-time defending N.L. champs continue to sport positive trends of 6-1 against right-handed starters, 48-22 in series openers, 37-14 after a day off and 44-21 on Tuesday.
One day after getting no-hit by Rockies right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez, Atlanta rallied for two runs in the bottom of the ninth inning Sunday to steal a 4-3 victory over the Rockies and win the weekend series. The Braves have won four of their last five (following a 1-4 slump), and they’re on additional runs of 4-1 on Tuesday, 15-6 after a victory and 44-20 following an off day. However, they’ve lost six straight games against N.L. East foes and seven of 10 to right-handed starters.
The Braves took 10 of 18 meetings with Philadelphia last year, but lost five of the last seven. Also, the Phillies are 13-5 in their last 18 contests at Turner Field.
Kendrick has gotten bombed in his first two outings of 2010 (both against Washington), giving up a total of 11 runs on 12 hits in just 5 2/3 innings. In Wednesday’s home start, the right-hander lasted just 1 2/3 innings, allowing six runs on six hits and three walks, but his offense bailed him out and eventually went on to a 14-7 victory.
Behind Kendrick, the Phillies are on runs of 16-5 in the first game of a series, 10-1 when he’s coming off five days of rest and 7-1 when he throws on Tuesday, but they’ve lost his last five road starts, where he’s 10-8 with a 5.30 ERA in 29 career road outings (26 starts). Also, the Houston native is 4-1 with a 3.29 ERA in seven games (six starts) against the Braves, with Philly winning four of the last five starts. In four games (three starts) at Turner Field, he’s 2-0 with a 3.10 ERA.
Hanson surrendered just one run on four hits and four walks with striking out seven in six innings in San Diego on Thursday, dominating the Padres 6-1. He was solid in his first home game (two runs, four hits, three walks, seven strikeouts in 5 1/3 innings), but suffered a 2-0 loss to the Cubs. Since getting rocked in his big-league debut at home last June, Hanson is 7-2 with a 2.63 ERA in 11 starts at Turner Field.
Hanson faced the Braves twice last season (one home, one road) and lost both games by identical 4-2 scores, giving up a combined five runs in seven innings (6.43 ERA).
Despite staying under the total in their last two games against Florida, the Phillies remain on a slew of “over” runs, including 33-16-2 overall, 18-6 on the road, 8-2 versus division rivals, 12-3-1 coming off a loss, 8-3-1 in series openers and 5-0 after an off day. Also, with Kendrick pitching, the over is on surges of 31-11 overall, 19-6-1 on the road, 6-1 against the N.L. West and 6-1 in series openers.
Atlanta is on “over” tears of 5-2-2 overall and 4-0 in series openers, but otherwise the Braves carry “under” trends of 4-1 at home, 6-1-1 after a day off, 5-1-1 with Hanson on the mound and 5-0 with Hanson starting at home. Additionally, the under has cashed in seven of the last 10 meetings between these teams overall and five of the last seven at Turner Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (9-3) at Oakland (9-5)
The surprising A’s welcome the Yankees to the Coliseum for a three-game series, with young lefty Gio Gonzalez (1-0, 3.38) set to take the ball for the hosts against struggling veteran Javier Vazquez.
New York completed a three-game weekend sweep of the Rangers with Sunday’s 5-2 victory, its fourth win in a row and seventh in the last eight games. The Yankees opened 2010 with a six-game road trip, taking two of three from division rivals Boston and Tampa Bay. Joe Girardi’s troops enter this series on positive stretches of 61-24 overall (playoffs included), 4-1 on the road, 4-0 against the A.L. West, 20-8 on Tuesday, 59-24 after a victory and 41-17 against left-handed starters.
Oakland’s three-game winning streak ended with Sunday’s 8-3 home Baltimore, and it was just the team’s second defeat in eight home games this season. Despite sitting atop the A.L. West, the A’s are still just 3-8 in their last 11 games after a loss and 15-39 when returning from an off day.
New York went 7-2 against the A’s last year and has won 11 of the last 13 meetings, going 4-2 in the last six in Oakland.
Vazquez’s second tour of duty with the Yankees has gotten off to a rocky start. He surrendered eight runs (all earned) in 5 2/3 innings of a 9-3 loss at Tampa Bay 11 days ago, then gave up four runs in 5 1/3 innings against the Angels on Wednesday, falling 5-3 at home. Last year with the Braves, the right-hander was sensational on visiting mounds, going 10-2 with a 2.80 ERA in 16 starts.
Vazquez is 2-3 with a 4.98 ERA in seven career starts against the A’s, going 1-2 with a 5.63 ERA in five games at the Coliseum. However, in his two most recent outings against Oakland (both with the White Sox in 2008), he gave up a total of four runs on eight hits and one walk while striking out 18 in 17 innings (2.12 ERA).
Gonzalez has yielded two runs and six hits in each of his first two starts, beating the Angels 10-4 and losing to the Mariners 4-2 (both on the road). Going back to last year, Gonzalez is 2-2 with a 3.13 ERA and a 21-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last four starts (three of them against the Angels).
Gonzalez is just 3-6 with a 6.79 ERA in 13 career games (12 starts) at the Coliseum. However, the 24-year-old Florida native dominated the world champs in one start last year, allowing a run on two hits and three walks (six strikeouts) in 6 2/3 innings, winning 6-4 at Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees stayed under the total in four of their final five games of their just-completed homestand and the under is also 4-1 in their last five against the A.L. West. However, they remain on “over” runs of 34-16-2 on the road, 5-1 on Tuesday, 6-0 against southpaw starters, 6-0 after a day off and 8-1 against winning teams. And going back to Vazquez’s first stint with New York, the Yanks have topped the total in four of his last five starts overall, four of his last five on the road, nine of his last 10 in series openers and 10 of his last 12 versus winning teams.
Oakland has topped the total in four straight games after an off day, but otherwise the club is on “under” surges of 6-1 overall, 3-1-1 at home, 5-0 against right-handed starters, 8-2 after a defeat, 4-1 versus A.L. East opponents, 11-5-1 on Tuesday, 5-0 behind Gonzalez overall and 4-0 when Gonzalez starts on Tuesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
DUNKEL INDEX
Portland at Phoenix
The Suns look to rebound from their Game 1 loss and build in their 9-1-1 ATS record in their last 11 games as a home favorite from 5 to 10 1/2 points. Phoenix is the pick (-8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Suns favored by 12. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-8 1/2)
Game 721-722: Milwaukee at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 116.319; Atlanta 124.841
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 8 1/2; 185
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 7 1/2; 187 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-7 1/2); Under
Game 723-724: Miami at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 120.308; Boston 119.532
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 1; 175
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 179
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+1 1/2); Under
Game 725-726: Portland at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 118.420; Phoenix 130.301
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 12; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 8 1/2; 204
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-8 1/2); Over
Game 727-728: Oklahoma City at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 117.132; LA Lakers 126.375
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 9; 185
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 6 1/2; 189
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-6 1/2); Under
MLB
Detroit at LA Angels
The Tigers look to take advantage of an Angels team that is 0-4 in its last 4 games as a home favorite from -110 to -150. Detroit is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+110)
Game 951-952: Colorado at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 14.730; Washington (Olsen) 15.194
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+130); Under
Game 953-954: Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Bush) 15.093; Pittsburgh (Morton) 14.622
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-135); Over
Game 955-956: LA Dodgers at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 14.463; Cincinnati (Bailey) 15.086
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+120); Under
Game 957-958: Chicago Cubs at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Zambrano) 14.846; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 14.197
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-110); Under
Game 959-960: Philadelphia at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Kendrick) 14.998; Atlanta (Hanson) 15.165
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+155); Over
Game 961-962: Florida at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Volstad) 15.243; Houston (Myers) 15.175
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Florida (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-115); Over
Game 963-964: St. Louis at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 14.172; Arizona (Haren) 14.901
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Arizona (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-140); Under
Game 965-966: San Francisco at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Sanchez) 16.005; San Diego (Latos) 15.701
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-115); Under
Game 967-968: Kansas City at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Davies) 15.503; Toronto (Eveland) 16.632
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Toronto (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-145); Over
Game 969-970: Texas at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lewis) 14.916; Boston (Wakefield) 14.538
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+120); Under
Game 971-972: Cleveland at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Masterson) 15.292; Minnesota (Slowey) 16.996
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-160); Under
Game 973-974: Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 15.787; White Sox (Danks) 15.522
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-120); Under
Game 975-976: NY Yankees at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Vazquez) 15.904; Oakland (Gonzalez) 15.607
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-170); Over
Game 977-978: Detroit at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 15.402; LA Angels (Kazmir) 15.061
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+110); Under
Game 979-980: Baltimore at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hendrickson) 15.166; Seattle (Vargas) 14.518
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Seattle (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+120); Over
NHL
San Jose at Colorado
The Sharks look to bounce back from their Game 3 loss and take advantage of a Colorado team that is 2-5 in its last 7 games as a playoff underdog. San Jose is the pick (-160) according to Dunkel, which has the Sharks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-160)
Game 23-24: Phoenix at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 12.160; Detroit 12.860
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-230); 5
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-230); Under
Game 25-26: Pittsburgh at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.423; Ottawa 11.705
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+120); Over
Game 27-28: New Jersey at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 12.080; Philadelphia 13.059
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-110); 5
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-110); Under
Game 29-30: Chicago at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.829; Nashville 11.856
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-145); 5
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-145); Over
Game 31-32: San Jose at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 12.117; Colorado 11.255
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-160); Under
Steve Merril
Phillies vs. Braves
Play: Over 8.5
Two of the better offenses in the NL East go at it in Atlanta as the Braves host the Phillies. Tommy Hanson makes the start for Atlanta, but he has struggled against Philadelphia in his career. He has yet to pick up a win against the Phillies going 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA in two starts. Hanson gave up four runs and seven hits in five innings in last outing against them back in September of last year. In limited at-bats, Ryan Howard (1-3), Shane Victorino (1-2) and Ben Francisco (1-2) have done the best against Hanson. The Phillies have gone Over in 8 of their 12 games and are hitting .315 on the road while averaging 7.2 runs per game. Philadelphia’s Kyle Kendrick has pitched terribly so far this season. He is 0-2 with a 17.46 ERA in two starts against the Nationals. He's gone only 5.7 innings in those two starts giving up 11 runs and 12 hits. Brian McCann (5-16), Chipper Jones (6-13), Nate McLouth (3-8), Matt Diaz (3-4) and Troy Glaus (2-3) have all had success when facing Kendrick. The Braves have gone Over in 6 of their 10 games while averaging 5.3 runs per game at home. With two run-producing offenses facing two struggling pitchers, this game has all the making of an offensive slugfest.
Cajun Sports
Florida Marlins vs. Houston Astros
Play: Florida Marlins
The Florida Marlins and Houston Astros square off on Tuesday for the first game of a three-game set in Texas. The Marlins will send Chris Volstad to the bump with his 1-1 record and ERA of 3.46. Over his career he is 1-0 versus the Astros with an ERA of 4.97 but the team’s record is a perfect 2-0 when he takes the bump. Florida is 4-2 on the road this season and 5-4 versus right-handed starters. The Marlins average 6.3 runs per game when facing righties with a batting average of .298 and an OBP of .358. Florida is 26-15 on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 the last 2 seasons, 14-7 off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog the last 2 seasons, 12-3 after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games the last 3 seasons and 15-6 in road games after a win by 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons. Houston will send Brett Myers to the hill with his 6.00 ERA at home this season and 6-10 record versus Florida in his career with a 5.49 ERA in those contests. The Astros are 3-9 overall this season including a record of 0-6 at home. They are also struggling versus right-handed starters going 2-6 so far in the 2010 campaign. When they face right-handed starters they are only averaging 2.2 runs per game with a batting average of .212 and an OBP of .234. The Astros bullpen has really struggled with an ERA of 6.85 so far this season. Astros starter Brett Meyers is 0-6 (-9.3 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons (Team's Record). The Marlins are 44-29 since June 06, 2007 after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $2215. The Marlins are 43-36 since May 04, 2006 after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent as a dog for a net profit of $1770. The Marlins are 35-22 since September 10, 2008 when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $1720. The League is 108-91 since June 20, 2005 on the road after shutting out their opponent and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $3955. The League is 70-42 since August 30, 2009 when they are off two wins in which they never trailed for a net profit of $2670. The League is 23-33 since August 31, 2009 at home vs a team that has won at least their last two games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1705 when playing against them. We will back the road team here as they grab a game one victory over the hapless Astros on Tuesday evening in Texas.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Florida Marlins 4 Houston Astros 3
SEAN MURPHY
Phoenix @ Detroit
Pick: Phoenix +1.5
We're getting exceptional value with the Coyotes on the puck line on Tuesday evening.
Including Sunday's 4-2 loss, the Red Wings are just 1-2 at home against the Coyotes this season, with their lone win coming by a narrow 3-2 margin back in December. In fact you would have to go back to February of 2007 to find the last time the Coyotes lost a game by more than one goal here in Detroit.
There's no shortage of confidence in the Coyotes dressing room following Sunday's victory. This is a young team that could have easily buckled under the pressure after dropping Game 2 at home. Instead they went out and played their best game of the series, essentially beating the Red Wings at their own game.
It should come as no surprise that the Coyotes are having success in this series. After all, this is a team that finished the regular season with 107 points, five more than the Red Wings, and good enough for fourth-best in the entire league. I'll be the first to admit that I underestimated them coming into this series, and did so again on Sunday, electing to back the Red Wings. I won't make the same mistake on Tuesday.
One of the strongest assets the Red Wings had during the regular season was goaltender Jimmy Howard. However, in this series, he has been average at best, and certainly didn't rise to the occasion in his first ever home playoff start, allowing four goals for the second consecutive game on Sunday.
On the flip side, Coyotes netminder Ilya Bryzgalov was awful in Game 2, but rebounded with a solid performance in Game 3, stopping 29 of 31 shots. Bad performances have been few and far between for Bryzgalov this season. Note that he has allowed two goals or less in seven of his last 10 road starts.
The last two games in this series have been higher-scoring than expected, but I'm counting on a more tightly contested affair on Tuesday. With that in mind, I'm confident that the Coyotes can once again give the Red Wings all they can handle. I'll take the extra goal as insurance, as I expect to see a game decided by one goal either way. Take Phoenix +1.5 goals (-160).
BIG AL
Phillies @ Braves
PICK: Over 8.5
The Phillies' habit of playing better on the road than at home seems to be continuing into 2010. Last season, the NL Champions were actually three games better away from Citizens Bank Park (48-33) than they were there (45-36). So far in 2010, the Phillies are following suit, as they won five of their first six games, all of which were on the road, but since then, they have been playing in front of their loyal and boisterous fans and have gone 3-3 in the six-game home-stand. In the process, they actually lost two of three games against the Nationals. So the Phillies may actually be glad that they are hitting the road and heading down south to Atlanta. The Phils will go with righthander Kyle Kendrick, who may be in danger of losing his spot in the rotation if he doesn't turn things around soon and this may be just the spot for that. Kendrick actually beat the Braves here at Turner Field last September when the Phils scored nine runs on their way to a rout. Tommy Hanson will get his third start of the season for Atlanta -- his second at home -- and his first start there against the Cubs was not very good. Although Hanson is 7-3 overall in his last 13 starts, two of those three losses came against tonight's opponent. Take the Phillies.
Jim Feist
Trail Blazers vs. Suns
Play: Over 204
Phoenix shot 41% at home and the game still landed right around the total. Phoenix is about uptempo and shooting threes, and they had a poor shooting game. The Suns don't pay much attention to defense and allowed Portland 47% shooting. The Suns' Grant Hill and Jason Richardson were a combined 1 of 10 shooting in the first half and finished 4 of 21. Jared Dudley, fourth in the NBA in 3-point percentage in the regular season (46 percent), was 1 of 5 from long range. All of which means looks for more scoring in Game 2. Play the Blazers/Suns Over the total.
Jack Jones
Bucks/Hawks OVER 187.5
All you really need to know in this game is that the OVER is 9-0 in the last 9 meetings. Furthermore, the last 9 meetings have all seen combined scores of 193 or more points. Milwaukee has no answer for Atlanta athletically, and the Hawks will score at will on the Bucks again in Game 2. Atlanta has scored 102 or more points in 8 of their last 9 meetings with Milwaukee. With Andrew Bogut out, look for the Hawks to sail over the 100-point mark again and for the Bucks to keep pace with 90 or more as they go to a small line-up.
This play also falls under a system that is 42-14 (75%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the OVER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (ATLANTA) - in the 2nd game of a playoff series. With a total of less than 190 and the last 9 meetings finsihing with 193 or more combined points, the clear value is with the OVER in Game 2. Take the OVER Tuesday.
Info Plays
3* on Boston Red Sox -134
Reasons why the Red Sox win:
1.) Off a terrible series against the Rays, look for Boston to rebound tonight against the Texas Rangers. The Red Sox will be playing with passion tonight to try and put a halt to their 4-game losing streak. The Red Sox have won 8 of their 10 home meetings with Texas over the last 3 seasons. Boston is 35-11 in their last 46 home meetings with the Rangers overall.
2.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TEXAS) - allowing 4.2 or less runs/game on the season (AL), after scoring 4 runs or less 4 straight games. This is a 38-12 ML System hitting 76% over the last 5 seasons and gaining +25.2 units. Texas is scoring just 3.8 RPG overall and 3.0 RPG on the road this season. They just cannot seem to get their bats going. Bet Boston at home.
Black Widow
1* on New York Yankees -167
This is a great spot for newly-acquired Javier Vasquez to get on track for the Yankees. He is up against an Oakland team in which he allowed just 1 earned run in 8 innings in his last start vs. the A's. Oakland is having troubles scoring runs again this season, putting up just 4.2 runs/game this year. Oakland has scored 4 or less runs in 6 of their last 7 games overall. The Yankees are having no problem scoring runs, which shouldn't come as a surprise considering they have the best line-up in baseball. New York is putting up 5.7 runs/game overall and 6.0 runs/game on the road in 2010. The Yankees are 41-10 (+21.9 Units) against the money line after 3 straight games where they committed no errors over the last 2 seasons. This team also plays great defense in the field which gets overlooked by their powerful line-up. The Yankees are 41-12 in their last 53 games as a favorite and 13-3 in their last 16 games as a road favorite of -151 to -200. The Athletics are 0-5 in their last 5 games as a home underdog. The Yankees are 11-2 in their last 13 meetings with Oakland. Take New York on the Money Line.
SPORTS WAGERS
PITTSBURGH +1.17 over Milwaukee
The Brewers come in having lost two of three to Washington, Chicago and St. Louis over its last three series or nine games. They’re now 5-7 and were completely shut down on Sunday by Livan Hernandez. In fact, if you throw out the 10 runs they scored in the first inning yesterday, they’ve scored just once over the other 17 frames and even if you include that, they’ve scored in just two innings over its last 18. On the other side of that is the Brewers pitching that has allowed five or more runs in 11 of 12 games this season and that makes winning difficult and it’s also mentally deflating when your pitchers keep giving up runs. Dave Bush has been around for quite some time and doesn’t need much of an introduction. He won’t dazzle anyone and he usually won’t implode either but he’ll usually allow three, four or five runs in six frames, as his career 4.68 ERA in 155 starts will attest to. That’s who he is and the Brewers pen has been of no help. Incidentally, both Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun’s career numbers at PNC Park are way below their numbers everywhere else. Charlie Morton goes for the 7-5 Pirates. Morton is off to a horrible start but he’s really not that bad at all. Two starts does not make a season and it’s worth noting he opened the year pitching in the very hitter-friendly Chase Field and then his second start came against the hot-hitting Giants in San Fran. In that game he went six innings and threw just 79 pitches but three jacks did him in for six runs and that’s how the Giants scored all of their runs. The bottom line is that the Brewers are not playing well and the Pirates are winning the close one’s. The game is in Pittsburgh and Dave Bush is not and never will be an appealing favorite on the road. Play: Pittsburgh +1.17 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +1.29 over TORONTO
Dana Eveland is another one of those pitchers that cannot be trusted laying juice. Yeah, he’s had two good starts but they came against the White Sox and Orioles and every pitcher in the league is making those two teams look foolish. Fact is, he’s walked five, struck out just six and has a unsustainable 92% strand rate thus far. Those are strong indicators that a reckoning is coming very soon and this is very likely the day. Kansas City ranks among the league leaders in most offensive categories, with an AL-leading .309 team BA. The season-opening offensive outburst, in which KC has averaged more than five runs per game, has featured an aggressive, contact-oriented plate approach which has KC batters with the AL's fewest strikeouts. The Jays have been living a charmed life and unless they start hitting with average they’re going to lose a lot of ball games. Toronto leads all AL teams in HR, but ranks near the bottom in team batting average and leads all teams in batters' strikeouts by a wide margin. Kyle Davies has a history of pitching his best in the season’s first two months but this is more about taking back a price against a very ordinary pitcher and an offense that ypu can keep off the board if you keep the ball in the yard. Definite overlay. Play: Kansas City +1.29 (Risking 2 units).
WASHINGTON +1.29 over Colorado
The Nationals are quietly above .500 and that’s after playing six games already against the Phillies. After beating the Rockies last night, the Nats have now won four of its last five games and over that stretch they’re batting a league best .321. Jorge De La Rosa is a guy that can look terrific at times but he’s always had control problems and that could cause a lot of problems for him here. You see, the Nationals, as it turns out, are among the most patient line-ups in the game and have already drawn 61 walks and 31 over its last six games. Greg Olsen didn’t look bad at all in his season debut versus a powerhouse Philadelphia lineup last week, and now faces a lefty-oriented Colorado lineup. Olsen has had substantial success vs. LHB, limiting them to a .704 OPS, while surrendering an .833 OPS vs. RHB. While the Colorado regular lineup is indeed LH-dominated, the bench players here are largely RHB and it’s worth noting that the Rocks are already 0-2 vs lefties on the road. In no way should the Rockies be favored by this much over the very undervalued Nationals. Play: Washington +1.29 (Risking 2 units).
ATLANTA/Philadelphia over 8½ -1.10
This total is low because Tommy Hanson is off to a good start but c’mon now, he’s seen the Cubbies and he’s seen the Padres in San Diego. Now he’s about to face a juggernaut offense and Hanson is going to have to be a lot better than his numbers suggest. First off, he’s walked seven batters while stranding an unsustainable 91% of base-runners. That can’t last and it won’t against this offense. Then there’s Kyle Kendrick and he could surrender nine runs on his own. Each of Kendrick's first two starts, both vs. Washington, has been disastrous. Kendrick's 36% line-drive rate says it all here and what it says is that his fate has been largely deserved. Kendrick has allowed 12 hits and three walks in just 5.2 innings for an off the charts ERA of 18.75 and WHIP of 2.65. In other words he’s pitching with the bases loaded every inning. This total seems awfully low so I checked the wind conditions and the reports are a very mild wind blowing from right to left at about 3MPH. This could really turn into a slugfest. Play: Philadelphia/Atlanta over 8½ -1.10 (Risking 2.2 units).
PHILADELPHIA +1.00 over New Jersey
Have you seen anything at all in the Devils that warrants them being a favorite tonight in Philly? The Devils are fortunate to even be in this series when in fact, they should be down 3-0. Of the nine periods, plus a bit of OT in game 2, the Devils have outplayed the Flyers perhaps in two periods and have been outplayed in seven-plus. I’ve said it 100 times this year and will say it again that Marty Brodeur is not what he used to be. It’s pretty sickening to listen to all the commentators continuing to praise how great he is when in fact he’s not. He used to be the best but he’s way slower than he used to be and that’s a result of a ton of miles and games played over the last 12 years or so. Remember, the Devils limped into the playoffs by losing 20 of its last 33 games and they sure as hell haven’t turned things around in this series. They were badly outplayed from about the 10-minute mark of the first period of last game and in fact, they’re looking worse each game, not better. Oh, it’s also worth noting that they’ve lost five straight playoff games here and three straight in the regular season, which brings its losing streak in Philly to eight games and now they’re favored? I think not. Play: Philadelphia +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
UPDATED SERIES WAGER (posted after game 3)
Detroit +1.11 over PHOENIX Pinnacle
The Red Wings have been favored in every game of this series thus far and they’re better than a 2-1 favorite tonight. However, they’ve now turned into a pooch in this series and should they win tonight they’ll be favored once again in the series. Give the Coyotes all the credit in the world for playing their hearts out every shift of every game this year and then going into Detroit and taking back home-ice advantage in this series. You almost can’t help but root for them but one must leave sentiments out of the equation if one is intent on making cash. You see, money does not care who wins or who loses. Money doesn’t lose sleep at night and has no soul whatsoever. You would have to be completely insane to lay 2-1 on tonight’s game as oppose to taking back 11 cents in the series on the Red Wings. Yeah, the Coyotes can win this series and they can even win tonight but don’t count on it. The Red Wings are dangerous as hell and have been in this spot numerous times before while the Coyotes are in unchartered waters. Based on value alone, the Red Wings have to be considered the prudent choice to capture game four and worst case to see this series go seven games. Play: Detroit +1.11 to win the series (Risking 2 units).
UPDATED SERIES WAGER (posted after game 3)
San Jose –1.25 over COLORADO Pinnacle
Well, if that last game in Colorado wasn’t about the most bizarre game ever than I don’t know what was. The Sharkies played the whole game in the Av’s end and frankly, you would have to go way back into the NHL archives to find a team that’s been so badly outplayed in three games, yet is up 2-1 and could be easily be up 3-0. Anyway, we already have the Av’s in the series @ +2.55 and according to the updated series prices, game three is truly the pivotal game in the minds of the oddsmakers. Now the Sharks are a small –1.25 favorite and if they win tonight that series price will increase dramatically to about 4-1. So, we stand to win 5.10 units if the Av’s pull this one out. However, this series is far too one-sided to ignore and there’s just no way Craig Anderson duplicates that last performance. It has to go on record as the one if the top 3 goaltending performances of all time. The floodgates could open at any time and it’s worth noting that Dany Heatley will return tonight (not that it matters). We’re really getting an incredibly sweet price on the Sharkies to win this series because they’ve been dominant and again, should they win tonight they’ll be at least a 3½-1 favorite to win the series. We’re free-rolling on the Sharks. Play: San Jose –1.25 to win series. (Risking 5 units to win 4).
EZWINNERS
Toronto Blue Jays -135
The former Oakland Athletic Dana Eveland made the Blue Jays starting rotation coming out of spring training and has not looked back since. Eveland is now 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his two starts this year and his season opening streak of 11 1/3 scoreless innings was the longest by a Blue Jays pitcher to start his Toronto career. The Royals were the worst team in the majors last season against left handed starters are they are off to an 0-2 start to this season against south paws. Overall in their last 45 games the Royals are only 12-33 against lefties. Kansas City will send Kyle Davies to the mound for this start and Davies has been pretty average this season. Last season Davies went 1-1 with a 4.61 ERA in two starts against the Jays. If Toronto gets four runs in this game that should be plenty with Eveland on the mound. Eveland made two starts against Kansas City last season and went 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA and eight strikeouts. The Royals have had their struggles at the Sky Dome where they are only 7-19 in the last twenty six meetings with the Jays. Play on Toronto.
JR O'Donnell
Boston Celts/Miami Heat Over 179
Let's ride Over 179 tonight in this battle as the loss of KG for the Green machine will allow the Miami Heat to put up some points . Big baby Glen Davis and Rasheed Wallace will not stop the Heat down low and that will free up some second chance points. The Vegas lines makers have adjusted this baby 5 points and we feel the betting public will lean to the Under. We are not biting as the Celts are a smooth 12-1 ats vs the boys from South Beach. The last game was roaring towards the Over and both teams stopped scoring the last 20+ minutes . These 2 teams put up some points vs each other as the Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
James Patrick Sports
Marlins vs. Astros
The Florida Marlins have had success against the Astros winning (7) of their past (10) meetings and Houston is just (6-21) in Tuesday action. Big Game James Patrick's Tuesday Fan Appreciation Day Major League Baseball selection is Florida Marlins.
Bobby Maxwell
Milwaukee at ATLANTA (-7')
I'm on an 83-61-3 streak with my FREE selections and tonight I have an NBA playoff winner for you as I lay the chalk with the Hawks hosting the Bucks in Game 2 of their series.
Atlanta shot 53.9 percent from the floor on Sunday and beat the Bucks 102-92 and cashed as an 8 ½-point favorite. All that and Milwaukee got a career game from Brandon Jennings. He’s not going to go off for 34 points tonight and the Hawks are going to win by double-digits again.
Jennings was virtually unstoppable in the first half on Sunday, shooting 14-for-25 for the 34-point night. Milwaukee really misses Andrew Bogut in the middle, not only for rebounding purposes, but also for scoring needs. This team just doesn’t have enough bullets in the chamber to hang with the Hawks.
Six Hawks scored in double figures with the veteran guard tandem of Joe Johnson getting 22 and Mike Bibby adding 19. Bibby had averaged less than 10 this season but when the playoff lights come on, you know this guy is going to step up his game. He’s done it his whole career and he’ll keep it going tonight.
Atlanta led by as much as 24 points and never trailed in the game. The Hawks are 4-1 in the last five series clashes, 5-2 in the last seven in Atlanta and the favorite is 10-3-1 in the last 14 clashes overall.
The Hawks bring in several ATS runs, including 6-2 at home, 8-2 against Central Division teams, 6-2 as a home favorite and 5-1 after a spread cover. Milwaukee is just 1-7-1 as a playoff underdog and 1-4 against Southeast Division squads.
Atlanta has cashed in the last three meetings this season and won three of the last four. I’ve got no problem laying the chalk with the Hawks.
4♦ ATLANTA