Stephen Nover
Milwaukee at ATLANTA (-7)
The Bucks have been playing at a faster tempo since losing center Andrew Bogut for the season. The result has been five overs in the last six games for Milwaukee.
Bogut was one of the best passing centers in the league. Without him, the Bucks are forced to go away from their patient half-court sets. A faster game means more shots.
The Bucks are going to be more aggressive in this matchup. That means point guard Brandon Jennings attacking the basket. There's going to be more action in the paint and thus more fouls called. Neither team shot well from the foul line in Game 1. The Bucks made 70 percent of their 17 free throws, while the Hawks hit 73 percent on their 19 free throws
Like most series-openers, there was a lot of feeling out in Game 1. Yet despite this and the relatively few number of free throws and poor free throw percentages, the teams still went eight points above the total. They'll be more scoring in this matchup.
1♦ BUCKS/HAWKS OVER
Karl Garrett
Portland at PHOENIX (-8')
13-6 comp play run the last 19 days.
Over the weekend the ONLY home team to lose a Game One was the Phoenix Suns, which still has the G-Man a little befuddled?!!??!
Phoenix fought hard and ended up with the # 3 seed, but could not close at home on Sunday against the injury-riddled Blazers.
I think all of that changes tonight, as Phoenix is in a MUST WIN situation, and not only do I think they win, but I think they win going away.
Remember this: the Suns are still 7-1-1 against the spread at home their last 9 games, and they are also on a 25-10-1 overall spread run their last 36 games.
Throw in the fact the home team in this series is on a 5-2-1 spread run, while the favorite is 18-7-2 the last 27 times these clubs have met, and you can see the law of averages is not in the favor of the banged-up Blazers.
Portland did well to steal home court advantage with their Game One upset, but tonight belongs to the Suns in blowout fashion.
5♦ PHOENIX
VEGAS EXPERTS
Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins
Good spot to play on the Twins here, who have a little lower of a price than we would normally expect, in large part to Cleveland’s four-game winning streak. The Indians had their first series-sweep of the season against the White Sox, but now face a Minnesota team that is off to a quick 9-4 start. We like the pitching matchup here, as Masterson lost both starts against Minnesota last year, and Slowey went 2-0 vs. Cleveland last year. Add in a superior bullpen and a better lineup, and we think Minnesota wins this one easily!
LEE KOSTROSKI
Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Detroit Tigers
After a hot start to the season the Tigers cooled off with a three-game losing streak, including scoring only nine times over the three-game set last weekend in Seattle. Detroit did manage to win the final game and the low-scoring should be no surprise as Safeco Field is a great pitching park, particularly this time of year. Detroit stays out west for a series in Anaheim starting Monday, and the Tuesday night match-up should be favorable for the underdog Tigers.
While some are expecting a bump in the numbers for second year starter Rick Porcello this season after a fantastic rookie season, he has shown no signs of regression so far. Porcello has made two very solid starts and he continues to limit walks and home runs. The Tigers won the only game he pitched against a much better Angel team last season and Porcello had excellent numbers on the road down the stretch last season. Detroit has featured one of the top bullpens in baseball so far this season with a 3.21 ERA and only one blown save situation.
Scott Kazmir has endured a rocky start to 2010 as he allowed six runs in four innings in his debut. Kazmir gave up three home runs in that outing and he also struggled considerably in the playoffs last season for the Angels despite having some initial success after joining the team. Kazmir can deliver strikeouts but he has always struggled with walks and the Tigers have been one of the most patient teams in baseball, averaging five walks drawn per game. Detroit is also hitting .275 as a team and although the home runs have not come frequently this season, playing in this scoring friendly park should provide a boost. Kazmir rarely goes deep into games and the Angels have a bullpen ERA of 5.77, second worst in the AL at this point.
Detroit has poor numbers against left-handed pitching so far this season but they have only faced two lefty starters so it is a very small sample size. Last season the Tigers were one of the best teams in the league against southpaws with a 29-20 record against lefty starters so the numbers should normalize in the coming weeks. The Angels are just 2-5 at home so far this season and while the schedule has been difficult, there have been several serious concerns raised by this squad in the early going, indicating the AL West may be wide open this year. Look for Detroit to be in a solid underdog situation tonight as this should be a favorable pitching match-up.
Brett Atkins
I'm getting back on the winning track tongiht with a baseball free winner on the Cubs as they visit New York and the Mets with their ace on the hill.
I'm going with Chicago tonight because they have the much better pitcher on the hill who loves the spotlight in Carlos Zambrano. The big fella has been shaky this season but you know he'll step up in the Big Apple.
Zambrano has limited the Mets to three runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts against them, and he's given up just one run in four of the last six meetings.
Chicago is 21-8 when Zambrano has gotten four days off like he is working on now, and they are 47-20 in his last 67 road starts.
New York is just 1-4 at home this season and 0-4 against right-handed starters. I'll play the Cubs behind Zambrano tongiht
3♦ CHICAGO CUBS
Tom Freese
Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay starter is 2-0 this year allowing 2 runs total in his first 2 starts this year. The Rays are 8-0 their last games. That includes a 4 Game sweep of the Boston Red Sox. The Rays are 6-0 the last 6 starts made by Price. The Rays are 21-8 their last 29 games. Chicago starter John Danks has allowed 3 runs total in his 2 starts this year. The White Sox 3-9 their last 12 games vs. Lefty starters. The Pale Hose have lost their last 4 games. Danks is 0-4 his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. PLAY TAMPA BAY
MTi Sports
Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns
Prediction: Phoenix Suns
The Trailblazers are 0-9 ATS (-7.8 ppg) since January 05, 2005 as a road dog with at least one day of rest after a game on the road in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted and 0-5 ATS (-7.0 ppg) on the road with at least a day of rest after a win on the road in which Lamarcus Aldridge had more turnovers than assists. In the playoffs, the league is 8-0 ATS (+12.2 ppg) at home with at most one day of rest after a loss in which they attempted at least 10 more three pointers than their season-to-date average. Phoenix should get back to fundamentals here. Take the Suns.
Larry Ness
Miami @ Boston
PICK: Boston -1
I played the Celtics in Game 1 of this series and I'm expecting a repeat-win on Tuesday night. I don't expect to the Heat to jump out to a big lead this time around (Miami led by the score of 61-47 with 7:02 left in the third quarter), which means the Celtics won't be forced to play catch-up. Game 1 was truly a contest of two halves. Dwayne Wade was near unstoppable in the first half; that's until the Celtics made some veteran adjustments and completely shut down the Heat in the second half. Wade finished with a line of 26-8-6 and Richardson added 15 points. However, Miami's other three starters combined to shoot just 9-of-27 (33.3%) while scoring only 20 points. The bench (including Haslem) made just 6-of-23 FGs (26.1%). The Celtics won Game 1 by the score of 85-76 but Kevin Garnett has been suspended for Game 2 for his actions at the end of Game 1. Some may see this as an opportunity for Miami but I look at it the other way and expect the Celtics to rally around each other and play with a much more concerted effort on both ends of the court in Game 2. Boston's bench made 11-of-21 shots in Game (52.3%) while scoring 28 points. Playing without KG in the lineup is something the Celtics are certainly used to do doing. KG missed the playoffs last year due to an injury and Boston beat Chicago in an epic seven-game series games before losing to the Magic in seven games in the second round. “We know we can win. We know we can hold down the fort if KG is out a game,” Pierce said before the league announced the suspension early Sunday night. “We’re not one of those teams that when its star player goes down, that’s an excuse to not play hard, not try to win the game." Simply put, Boston got into the Heat's heads in Game 1, holding Miami to just 10 points in the fourth quarter. This time around, I look for outstanding performances from Pierce and Rondo to lead the way to a convincing Game 2 win.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Minnesota Twins -153
Bottom Line: Cleveland has rattled off 4 straight wins, but I look for its winning streak to come to an end in Minnesota tonight. The Indians are a terrible 5-21 in their last 26 road games and only 1-8 in Masterson's last 9 starts. The Twins are 75-33 in their last 108 games as a home favorite and 14-4 in their last 18 home games. They are also 19-6 in Slowey's last 25 starts as a home favorite. Plus, the Indians are just 4-13 in their last 17 meetings in Minnesota. Take the Twins tonight.
Red Dog Sports
Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox
Play Tampa Bay
The Tampa Bay Rays are 8-0 in their last 8 games on the road and face a struggling White Sox team that is just 2-4 at home. Bobby Janks starts for Chicago and he is one of their better hurlers but the Sox seem to find ways to lose. Tampa starter David Price should be able to keep the home team under control. Play Tampa Bay!
Bryan Leonard
Philadelphia at Atlanta
Simply put there is no way the best team in the National League should be this size of underdog. Philadelphia is going to score against anyone with this lineup and they don't deserve to be a prohibitive underdog to anybody. Sure Kyle Kendrick isn't the next coming of Robin Roberts, but he can keep the Phillies in the game while the bats do some damage. Philadelphia is 5-5 their last 10 visits to Atlanta and they have won 6 of the last 9 meetings overall. This will be Kendrick's first career start against the Braves after facing them coming out of the bullpen in the past.
Tommy Hansen has faced the Phillies twice in his young career with the Braves coming up short on both occasions. He's allowing a .940 OPS in limited time against Philly.
Philadelphia is 5-1 on the young season on the road and 7-2 when facing a right-handed starter. They are worthy of a shot here regardless of the Atlanta pitching edge.
PLAY PHILADELPHIA
Stan Lisowski
Oklahoma City
The Thunder have bounced back nicely off of a defeat this year, covering 24 of 32 games. Lakers went 1-7 laying points off of a straight up win last post season. Western Conference loser of the last game is on a 60+% run the past couple of seasons.
Frank Jordan
St Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: St Louis Cardinals
Kyle Lohse and Dan Haren aren't getting the run support from their offense as they have just one win between them despite pitching well. Haren has allowed just 8 runs in three starts while Lohse has allowed just 6 in two starts. Look for a low scoring affair with these two pitchers on the mound and the Cardinal offense to scratch out a run late to get Lohse his first win of the year. Play St. Louis
Craig Trapp
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: LA Lakers -6
The best team in the league verse a young team just does not seem fair. The Lakers have kicked in the defense and rebounding now that its the postseason. Look for them to continue to chase Durant off the three point line and give a ton of help forcing other players to beat them. At this point the Thunder are a great story but are missing a two guard that can stretch the floor. Phil Jackson is the best coach ever for a reason, he always take away the #1 option. Enjoy a very easy winner as LA works on the sweep tonight.
Ben Burns
Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
After getting swept by the Angels over the weekend, the Jays broke out of their slump in a big way yesterday, beating up on the Royals by a score of 8-1. With that result, they're now 8-1 the last nine times that they hosted KC and an impressive 16-4 the last 20. Tonight's matchup gives them a solid chance and continuing that 'domination.'
Davies goes for the Royals and he's been respectable, thus far. In two starts, he has a 4.26 ERA and 1.342 WHIP. He's 0-1 here at Toronto for his career though and has a 4.61 ERA and poor 1.609 WHIP in two starts against the Jays overall.
Eveland gets the call for the Jays and he's been dominant, thus far. Indeed, he's 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.975 WHIP. Note that he's also 1-0 with a 3.68 ERA in two career starts vs. the Royals.
With the Royals at 12-33 their last 45 games vs. a southpaw starter and the Jays at 10-2 the last dozen times that they were favored, the currrent price seems reasonable. Consider Toronto.