Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Trail Blazers/Suns OVER 204
The Blazers have had a lot of success in slowing down the Suns' explosive offense. They did so in Game 1, but we still saw 205 total points scored. With Phoenix now down a game, I expect it to play with a lot more intensity tonight. That means that the Blazers won't be as successful on the defensive end. Plus, without Roy, the Blazers tend to play a more uptempo style of basketball. Portland had scored under the century mark in 5 straight games before Roy went down. In his absence, they have scored 103, 116 and 105 respectively. In addition, the numbers are certainly in our favor when you consider that plays Over on any team in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 102-52 the last 5 seasons. We'll bet the Over here tonight.
Freddy Wills
Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Under 8½
I really like this as Haren has been dominant vs. the Cardinals and had a 2.81 ERA at home. He has not yet to throw out a game like he wants to and I think tonight is the night. He had a 1.13 ERA vs. the Cardinals last year, and the Dbacks themselves just have not hit. Kyle Loshe has actually pitched really well and the money line not going up tells me that Vegas expects him to pitch well against a struggling Diamondbacks line up.
Matt Fargo
3* Texas Rangers
Boston is in a major rut right now yet it is still getting the benefit of the doubt from the linesmakers. It was hammered again yesterday by Tampa Bay which culminated the sweep at the hands of the Rays and simply put, things are not good in Beantown right now. Things are not much better for the Rangers who got swept in New York over the weekend but the off day could be a helpful benefit and facing a team in even worse shape can lift the spirits. Texas sends Colby Lewis to the hill and he has gotten off to a tremendous start this season. He has posted a 2.19 ERA through two starts, both resulting in wins and his comeback effort has gotten off to a healthy beginning. Tim Wakefield was good for the Red Sox in his opener against the Royals but that still resulted in a loss and he was much worse last time out against the Twins, allowing six runs on 10 hits in 5.1 innings of work. The Rangers have provided many nightmares for Wakefield and with his current form I expect those bad results to continue.
Glenn McGrew
Cardinals at Diamondbacks
While Second straight road game for St. Louis, and they go with a guy who has below average stuff in Kyle Lohse. He relies on control, and is much more comfortable at home, with a 6.00 road ERA. That’s nothing new: Last year he was 1-6 with a 6.10 ERA on the road. Arizona not only has home field, they have an ace on the hill in Dan Haren, who has 20 strikeouts and just 4 walks in 20 innings. He’s also 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA against St. Louis. Play the Diamondbacks.
OffshoreInsiders
Portland Trailblazers at Phoenix Suns (-8.5)
Phoenix suffered a big letdown on Sunday when it lost 105-100 to a Blazers team playing without its star. Despite the setback, the Suns are on fire and enjoying a 14-3 run including the regular season. They’ve been steady for NBA betting fans, too, by covering seven of their last 10 games against the spread. Phoenix is 7-2-1 against the spread in its last 10 home games.
Who needs Brandon Roy after all? Portland is 5-2 in its last seven games against the spread, including the regular season. The Trailblazers are getting the job done on NBA odds by covering six of their last 10 games against the spread. And with one win at US Airways Center under their belts already, the Blazers should have no problems playing another game there—Portland is 6-3-1 against the spread in its last 10 road games.
Amare Stoudemire must improve his play after scoring just 18 points in Game 1. Ditto for Grant Hill, who crawled to a four-point finish. Both will be better—if only because Steve Nash will get them involved and create offense for them.
Pick: Phoenix
Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers (-6.5)
The Lakers erased most of the concerns of a late-season collapse—they went 4-6 to close out the regular season—by topping Oklahoma City 87-79 in Game 1 of their NBA Playoffs series. Los Angeles played poorly on NBA betting lines during the skid (4-6 ATS overall, 3-6-1 ATS on the road) but you can pretty much throw those numbers out; LA has got its act together again. Especially with the return of Andrew Bynum, who had a double-double in Game 1 after missing the last 13 games.
Oklahoma City also stumbled down the stretch, losing four of its last six outings in the regular season. The rust carried over to the postseason, as the Thunder shot just 40 percent against the Lakers in Game 1 (including a brutal 2-16 performance from the three-point line). The loss dropped Oklahoma to 5-5 in its last 10 games against the spread, not to mention a three-game ATS losing streak on the road.
The Lakers have dominated this series, going 9-1 straight up and 6-4 against the spread in their last 10 meetings. Kevin Durant and Co. simply aren’t ready for the defending NBA champs yet, at least not on the road.
Pick: Los Angeles
Wunderdog
Oklahoma City at Los Angeles
Pick: OVER 190.5
The oddsmakers looked at the game one defensive struggle and prepared for a public rush to the under for game two. They lowered the number by an amazing eight points from what was deemed a fair total in game one. That moves the pendulum of value to the OVER in this one. Just look at Miami and Atlanta last year where the Heat produced 64 in game one but came back with 108 in game two. It isn't the game one result that sets the tone for game two, but an eight point movement sets a different tone, one that pours on a lot of value in playing this contest OVER and that's the call here.
Dan Bebe
PIT (+108) vs MIL
This is a play based on streaks, and based on line moves.
The Pirates are absolutely rolling at home, going 5-1 to start the season, and playing with confidence.
The Brewers look pretty sad early this year, and the back end of their pen, which was supposed to be a strength, is looking more like a liability.
Milwaukee lost 2 of 3 in Washington, so they're not playing well, home or road, and Pittsburgh, at this price, is not at all appealing to the masses, so we're getting a nice deal.
Dave Bush is the trademark "middle of the road" starting pitcher. He'll give you 5-6 innings, probably surrender 3 runs, or in that neighborhood, so we know what we're going to get on that side.
The part that drives this play is the line move on both the side and total, with regards to Charlie Morton. Morton is a pitcher with tremendous movement on his pitches, but as we've seen, he often struggles with getting those dancing pitches to get across the plate. When he throws strikes, he's lethal. When he's wild, he has to groove his fastball, and he gets burned.
The strong move of the juice on the total (it went from -120 on the over to -120 on the under), as well as this line coming down off the opening number BOTH strongly support a solid pitching performance from Morton tonight.
Morton has just a 2.77 ERA against the Brewers, and I know it's not a ton of data to work off, but pitchers are extremely cerebral, and when Morton sees a team he's had success against before, that can go a long way to determining the success he should have tonight, especially for a young guy that has been fighting his control.
Look for the Pirates hot play to continue; look for the bats to do enough damage to get the job done, and look for a nice underdog winner in the neighborhood of 6-3.
LOS (-127) vs CIN
For the record, I would play this one up to -135, so if you can't get the -127 listed, there are a TON of mainstream books offering -130.
I know Chad Billingsley hasn't done a ton to inspire confidence in this young 2010 season, but in watching him pitch, I'm still seeing a lot of things I like.
You might be wondering what the heck's to like off that horrid start against the Diamondbacks, but if we go back and break that game down, you can really trace Billingsley's issues to falling behind in the count against guys that he normally dominates, and then two D'backs lefties really doing the damage.
Chad, and the Dodgers as a whole, should handle a game against the struggling Reds much, much better. Joey Votto is 5-for-11 off Billingsley, so that's one bad he should try to avoid, but up and down the lineup, Billingsley has posted against the Reds just a 2.35 ERA lifetime (yikes, not my finest grammar moment, there). Russ Martin is a smart catcher, and he'll steer Billingsley in the right direction, and even more than that, Chad is pitching fairly close to his hometown of Defiance, Ohio.
I expect a clear-headed, confident Billingsley doing his typical damage against the Reds. And his teammates should help -- the Dodgers always play well at Great American Ballpark, and that should continue off an emotional series win over the Giants.
The Dodgers get to take their licks today against the consistently underperforming Homer Bailey. No one really knows when this kid is going to wake up and start pitching to his potential, but it hasn't happened yet.
Rafael Furcal, Russ Martin, Matt Kemp, James Loney and Manny Ramirez are EACH batting at least .400 off Bailey in limited exposure, and Kemp has gone yard. Considering the Dodgers lineup can really cause some damage, this relatively hitter-friendly ballpark might equate to a rough night for Bailey.
There's some chalk here, but I like the way the Dodgers are playing, and I like that the bullpen seems to be slowly piecing things together. Still, huge offensive advantage for the Dodgers in this one, big momentum edge for LA, minor edge in starting pitcher, and fairly equal bullpens? I'll take my chance with the road team.
King Creole
SDP / SFG Over 7
Combine a top-notch 'OVER' Umpire with favorable WIND conditions... with a low OU line... and you have the makings of a solid HIGH-scoring outcome.
BRIAN KNIGHT gets the call 'behind the dish' in San Diego tonight. He's started off the 2010 season by going OVER the TOTAL in each of his first three games. Average combined runs when Knight is the 'Man in Blue' so far this year is 12.7... which is almost DOUBLE tonight's OU line. Knight even flexed his 'OVER muscles' in Spring Training... going 5-1 O/U in March!
With tonight's WINDS forecast to be blowing OU to right-field and right-centar in excess of 18 MPH... we'll play for a HIGH-scoring outcome with this (relatively) short OU line.
Sac Lawson
OAK (+150) vs NYY
Value play here guys... Fact is, Vasquez has not had a great inning, let alone outing, since coming to New York for his second go-around with the Yanks. He's getting hit left and right, which is a very bad sign. Throughout his career, Vasquez has struggled with command and walks, but was never a guy that was very hittable. The fact that he's now showing signs of deminishing "stuff" so to speak, are a huge red flag for Yankees fans early on.
On the other side, Gio Gonzalez has no-hitter type stuff. The guy is very tough to hit, and like Vasquez, can struggle with command at times. He was absolutely monumental in his only other start against the Yankees, and that alone should give the youngster enough confidence to know that he can hang in there tonight. Anytime I can grab Oakland, at home, at this kinda price against a reeling Starter, I've gotta bite. Oakland has one of the best bullpens in the majors, they've got a starter with fantastic stuff, and they're playing in the comfort of their home field. Gotta take the huge home underdog here. Oakland for a unit!
GREG SHAKER
Cardinals/DBacks Under 9 -120
Cardinal Bats remain weaker than expected, not managing to to break the .250 Barrier which is a distinguishing line for major league teams. This team has plated 17 times in their last 7 games and we do remember one of those was a 20 inning affair with the Mets. In effect, that number of games should be 8. They have been winning though due to outstanding starting pitching and even better Bullpen Throwing, which has an ERA now of near 2 runs in the last 10 played. The Dbacks Pen has been awful but tonight they have a guy that might give them a rest. Haren may not be quite the pitcher he was, but he still gives AZ worthy innings, and he has thrown nicely verses these Cards in his brief career pitching at them. The Dbacks have only scored 8 thru their last 4 played as well, after a hitting barrage earlier in the year. Teams with good Bullpens Play a lot of UNDERS and STL qualifies for that role. They are 9-4 UNDER so far and I think we have a very good shot at another one tonight. This game is available at 8.5 at a better price, but I would much rather have the extra 1/2 run and get the key number of 9 runs.
Detroit Tigers/LA Angels Under 9 -115
Let's not "Rocket Science" this play here. Simple facts are that LAA is not hitting as well right now as they will be, and the Tigers are just plain anemic at the plate, managing just 12 runs in their last 5 games. What the Tigers do bring to the table is very good Bullpen Pitching to date and that is most likely going to help us in the latter innings. What also might help is the fact that Detroit is having serious problems hitting Southpaws, just .219 on the year thus far, and much worse than than when they have traveled. Certainly Kazmir has struggled but he may get the medicine he needs tonight facing the lite hitting Lefty Hitting Tigers and he has pitched well verses their current roster. These are not the Yankees/RedSox he will be facing tonight. Porcello off a Poor start and as I have said often, good pitchers off poor games usually come back with a strong effort. This park has been an UNDER Bonanza for a while now at 36-15-3 UNDER the mark, and this series is 13-5-1 as well. The LAA Pen is a question mark for sure but I don't think enough here.
LA Dodgers/Cincy Reds Over 9
After two games verses very good pitching, the Dodgers get a welcome relief facing Bailey tonight and this team has proven they can score runs, especially verses righthanded throwers. Billingsley still trying to find himself and has looked less than iffy so far this year. LAD 10-2 OVER this year due to their hitting prowess and their Bullpen which has been less than stellar. The fact is both Pens have been awful, and both ranked in the bottom in the Bottom 10. This Hitters Venue should see some runs tonight.
Chicago WhiteSox +107
How do you back a 4-9 team? You do when you have a good lefty on the mound that has always been a homer and facing a team that has had success but not verses lefties, batting a meager .188 this year. You do when the Pen for your team has an amazing 0.87 ERA over the last 10 games played.. And you do after the team they are playing just beat the RedSox 4 straight times and are feeling quite spiffy at the moment. You also do this when you are playing at home as a Dog and in dire straits of a good effort. The Wagons are circling here...
Miami Heat +1
his one is way too obvious but despite that I do think that the Heat will control the game as Boston plays without Garnett. Certainly Oddsmakers adjusted down here and for good reason. Miami had good results on the boards for the first game and likely to be better tonight. Extra Mo as well down 1-0 in the series. Gonna have to lean that the Heat get it done....
Nelly
Kansas City + over Toronto
The Royals are batting .300 as a team and though 5-8, Kansas City is looking like a viable team even with the pitching staff struggling. Toronto won the first meeting last night but that game came on the heels of a big win in Minnesota for the Royals. While Toronto has failed to top five runs in four of the last six games, the Royals have scored five or more in six of the last eight games. Kansas City won four of seven meetings last season and this should be a good pitching match-up. Kansas City is 8-1 in the last nine games that Kyle Davies has started including 2-0 this season. Davies pitched brilliantly late in the year last year and he remains a play-on pitcher with solid efforts in 2010 against Boston and Detroit. Dana Eveland has a 1.35 ERA on the season but he faced two struggling offensive teams. He allowed five walks in his two outings and he featured a 7.16 ERA last season for Oakland, indicating that his hot 2-0 start may be a fluke. Kansas City is also hitting .333 against left-handed pitching this season. This is a great price on a very solid offensive team as the Royals have been out-performing the Blue Jays. Toronto has had better overall pitching but the Royals appear to be making progress in that regard and Davies is capable of a great outing.