Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, April 23

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Seattle at Houston
The Mariners look to follow up last night's 7-1 win and take advantage of a Houston team that is 2-11 in Bud Norris' last 13 starts following a team loss in the previous game. Seattle is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Mariners favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-120)

Game 901-902: St. Louis at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.082; Washington (Detwiler) 15.398
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-110); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-110); Over

Game 903-904: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Locke) 16.203; Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.814
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+135); Under

Game 905-906: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Villanueva) 15.454; Cincinnati (Cingrani) 14.937
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+140); Over

Game 907-908: LA Dodgers at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 14.259; NY Mets (Niese) 15.512
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-145); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+125); Under

Game 909-910: Atlanta at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Teheran) 15.822; Colorado (Garland) 16.732
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-125); Under

Game 911-912: Milwaukee at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.606; San Diego (Richard) 16.585
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+100); Over

Game 913-914: Arizona at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Corbin) 16.761; San Francisco (Cain) 16.222
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-145); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+125); Over

Game 915-916: Oakland at Boston (6:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Colon) 14.799; Boston (Aceves) 16.510
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-120); Under

Game 917-918: Kansas City at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Davis) 16.149; Detroit (Scherzer) 15.579
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+155); Under

Game 919-920: Toronto at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Dickey) 15.566; Baltimore (Gonzalez) 14.565
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-120); Over

Game 921-922: NY Yankees at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Hughes) 16.050; Tampa Bay (Price) 15.550
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+150); Under

Game 923-924: Cleveland at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (McAllister) 14.598; White Sox (Quintana) 14.874
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-125); Over

Game 925-926: Seattle at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Iwakuma) 14.010; Houston (Norris) 13.219
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-120); Over

Game 927-928: Texas at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Ogando) 15.523; LA Angels (Vargas) 15.949
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+100); Under

Game 929-930: Miami at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Nolasco) 13.407; Minnesota (Correia) 15.688
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-150); Over

Game 931-932: Miami at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Fernandez) 14.512; Minnesota (Pelfrey) 14.205
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+115); Under

Game 933-934: Atlanta at Colorado (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Minor) 15.768; Colorado (Francis) 16.994
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

MLB Predictions

Cubs / Reds Under 8

Another heart breaking loss for the Cubs last night as they lead 2-0 before allowing Cincinnati to tie it 2-2 in the 7th. They then went into extra innings and the Cubs went up 4-2 in the top of 13th before allowing the Reds to score 3 runs in the bottom of the 13th for a walk off win. Tonight we will see two solid starting pitchers in Carlos Villanueva for Chicago and Tony Cingrani for the Reds. Villanueva is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA over this three starts. He has allowed just 13 hits in 21 innings pitched with 15 strikeouts and just 4 walks. His OBA is just .186 and his WHIP is a low 0.80. Southpaw Cingrani made his first Major League start last week going 5 innings allowing 5 hits and 3 walks while striking out 8 getting credit with the victory. In Triple-A Cingrani was 1-0 over 3 starts with a 0.00 ERA as he struck out 26 and walked just 2. Take note that the Cubs are hitting just .196 as a team vs lefties with a .265 OBP. The UNDER is 12-2 in the Cubs last 14 road games vs a left handed starter, and 8-3 in their last 11 road games overall. When the Reds are a home favorite between -151 and -200 the UNDER is 7-2-1 in their last 10. Take the UNDER.

Bob Balfe

Heat -14

This is the problem with having 8 teams from each conference make the playoffs. The Bucks have no business being in the playoffs and even more so they have no business playing the Heat. Matchups like this actually hurt Miami because the competition is so easy that when they get into the next round they forget they have been playing NBA Basketball. Miami turned the ball over 19 times the other night and still blew the Bucks out. This Milwaukee team just can't rebound against the Heat. There is nothing that they are better at in this series. The only way the Bucks cover this game is if Miami just doesn't want to cover. Its really as simple as that. Take the Heat.

Celtics +6.5

This is just like the Chicago/Brooklyn game yesterday. Are the Knicks ready to be a playoff team? Can they bank on Melo scoring 30 plus points and carrying this team. This Boston team is not that great, but they know how to play playoff basketball and they know what its like to play in a game two when they are down one game. This game means everything. Your chances of coming back down 0-2 are slim. Look for Boston to show flashes of old even if it is just for this one game. The playoffs are a totally different beast and I think this is a game that goes down to the buzzer. Take the Celtics.

Nuggets -8

The Nuggets couldn't hit a three, couldn't get a rebound and they couldn't make a foul shot, but still won Game 1. This team is not going to beat themselves with turnovers. David Lee getting hurt is a horrible blow for the Warriors. Denver played as bad as they possibly could. If the Warriors can't shoot 50 percent from the 3 point line this should be a 20 pt win for Denver. Remember Denver was the best team in the NBA at home. They only lost 3 games all year. The odds they lose this game are about 20/1. I just don't see Golden State or anybody on this team stepping up and taking charge. Take the Nuggets

Brewers -120

The hottest team in baseball are these Brewers. The worst team in baseball would be the Padres. This game is all about confidence and winning. San Diego is in such a slump and its almost impossible to break that streak against a hot team. Until San Diego proves otherwise you have to keep going against them in spots like this against quality teams. Take Milwaukee.

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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NY Rangers vs. FloridaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: NY RangersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These teams have played twice this year: Florida won 3-1 in New York on March 21st, before the Rangers then prevailed 6-1 in front of the home town crowd on April 18th. I believe we'll see a similar outcome tonight and am therefore recommending a second look at the Rangers on the "puck-line" for the plus-money return. New York is 24-17-4 overall and 9-11-2 on the road. It's won three straight, most recently a 4-1 victory over New Jersey on Sunday. Florida is 13-26-6 overall and 7-10-5 at home. It's lost six straight, most recently a 3-0 setback at Boston on Sunday. This is a big game for the visitors. A number of different things have to happen for them to punch their ticket to the post-season, but the one thing they have control over is going out and winning this game tonight. New York is currently sitting in eighth in the Eastern Conference but still has a shot at climbing to as high as fifth. One player you'll want to track is Rangers' goaltender Henrik Lundqvist who is 8-2-1 with a 1.79 GAA over his last 11 starts. And that's bad news for a struggling Panthers team that's scored a league-low 101 goals (note that Lundqvist has in fact won eight of his last 11 with a tiny 1.27 GAA vs. Florida). To add insult to injury, Florida is expected to be without the services of leading goal scorer Tomas Kopecky, who is day-to-day with an injury (note, if Kopecky does get the call, he'll be far from 100%). I believe the table is set for an epic lop-sided rout.

Ben BurnsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Winnipeg vs. WashingtonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: WashingtonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Capitals are fairly heavy favorites here. However, I believe the high price tag is warranted.
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The Jets are off a hard fought win vs. Buffalo last night. They're an awful 4-16 (-11) the last 20 times that they played the second of back-to-back games.
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On the other hand, during the same stretch the Capitals, who haven't played since Saturday, are 29-22 when playing with two day's rest in between games. That includes a 5-2 mark their last seven in that situation.
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While he Jets are getting outscored by an average margin of 3.2 to 2.5 on the road, the Caps are outscoring visiting teams by a 3.2 to 2.5 mark here at home.
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The Caps are 14-3 vs. divisional opponents and 9-1 in the month of April. They've beaten the Jets the last three meetings, outscoring them a combined 13-1 margin. Conisder laying the wood.

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Toronto vs. BaltimoreFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: TorontoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Once R.A. Dickey got into a groove last season with the Mets, he was almost untouchable. And Dickey has been flashing the same sort of form in his last two outings for the Blue Jays, posting an 0.73 ERA in thos estarts. That looks reminiscent to a year ago when he shut down the Orioles last June, striking out 13 and limiting the Birds to just one hit in nine innings of a 5-0 win at Citi Field on June 18. We'll assume he handcuffs Baltimore hitters again while the Jays tee of on Birds starter Miguel Gonzalez, who allowed 3 homers in 5 2/3 innings of work in his most-recent start last Thursday vs. the Rays.

Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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LA Dodgers vs. NY MetsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: LA DodgersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Before the season, we all thought one of these teams would be good & the other not. Hint: the roles have been reversed early on as the Mets are off to a 9-8 start with the Dodgers are just 8-10. For the series opener Tuesday at Citi Field though I look for the road team to come in and pick up the win behind Clayton Kershaw. He has just owned the Mets through the years.
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LA finally snapped a six-game losing skid by beating Baltimore Sunday, 7-4. Fortunately, they'll have their ace Kershaw going tonight. The team has never lost the six times he's started against the Mets with Kershaw going 5-0 with a sparkling 1.37 ERA. After opening 2013 w/ back to back scoreless efforts, he's lost his last two starts, but against this opponent he should reverse course. The Mets are 23-42 vs. lefties.
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I'm not putting any stock into the Mets start. They have actually lost four of their last six, but did beat the Nationals 2-0 Sunday. But their pitching had been hard in previous games before that, giving up 35 runs in their last four losses. One of those was the last start made by Jonathan Niese, who has allowed a total of eight runs his last two trips to the mound. The bullpen was really to blame his last time out, giving up eight of the 11 runs in a loss to the Rockies.

Will RogersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas City vs. DetroitFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: DetroitFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Detroit Tigers return home Tuesday an angry bunch after losing the last 4 games of a nine-game road trip that included a three-game sweep at the hands of the previously struggling Los Angels Angels. They had Monday off as they prepare to welcome in the Kansas City Royals, who on the other hand, are playing well. They just swept a doubleheader Sunday in Boston, which given the circumstances, was a major challenge.
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Here are my keys to the game.SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1. Homefield Advantage - Look for things to turn around for Detroit simply because they're back at Comerica Park. They are averaging 6.7 runs/game in their home ballpark in six games so far this season. As a team, they are batting .349 in those games and their OBP is a ridiculous .413. It certainly also helps that KC is just 5-13 in the Motor City the previous two years.
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2. Max Scherzer - The last time the Tigers won a game, the starter was Scherzer. That was the "famous" game against Seattle where the two teams combined to strike out 20 times. Scherzer fanned 12 by himself and allowed only one earned run for a second straight start. He's struck out 23 batters his last two starts. Scherzer started three times against the Royals last season. Detroit won every time.
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3. X-Factor - The Tigers are 79-39 as a favorite of -150 or higher. They simply don't lose many times at home in this price range.

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Oakland AthleticsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When the A's meet the Red Sox in Game Two of this three-game series in Boston Tuesday night they will send Bartolo Colon to the mound knowing the savvy veteran is 8-3 in his last eleven team starts during April, including 4-1 his last five away. With Colon in great KW form with 10 strikeouts and zero walks this campaign, look for him to improve to 5-1 in his last six team starts against the BoSox here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Oakland.

Jimmy Boyd

Chicago White Sox -120

The White Sox have now lost four in a row while the Indians have won their last three. I think both streaks stop here tonight as Chicago gets back on track at home.

Jose Quintana looked rough in his first start of the year but hasn't given up an ER in his last 13 2/3 innings. Both Quintana and Zach McAllister started two games ago against today's opponent, and Quintana held the Indians hitless while McAllister wasn't quite as sharp.

With the home team needing to break out of their slump, I think they come to play today and pick up the win.

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Braves at Rockies GM 1FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 10FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This game fits a solid totals system. We want to play the over for road favorites like the Braves with a total that is 9.5 or higher, if they are off a road favored loss in a game where the total was 8 or less. Atlanta laid and egg in Pittsburgh getting swept after starting out a league best 11-1. Now their bats should awaken in Coors field against a hot hitting Colorado team that has J. Francis going. Francis has a 6.10 era at home and has not fared well in Day starts today he faces M. Minor for the Braves who was lit up like a Christmas tree in his only start here allowing 8 earned runs in 5 innings. Minor has posted over in 4 of 5 April road starts. In the series here between these two 9 of the last 11 have flown over. The Braves have gone over 4 of the last 5 road games with a total that is 9.5 to 10.5. Colorado has gone over in 17 of 22 as a home dog of +100 to +125 and 5 of 7 vs winning teams. Take the Over.

Jim Feist

Seattle at Houston
Pick: Under

A pair of bad offensive teams meet in Houston. Seattle is 25th in runs scored, 27th in on-base percentage with a team batting average of .218 (29th). At least they have Hisashi Iwakuma on the mound, with a 2-0 record and a 1.69 ERA. He's walked just 2 in 26+ innings and allowed 12 hits. Houston is also weak on offense, 15th in runs, 22nd in on-base percentage. The under is 10-2 in the Astros last 12 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Play the Mariners/Astros under the total.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta at Colorado GM 2FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: ColoradoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Julio Teheran vs. Jon Garland in the second game of today's doubleheader at Coors Field between the Braves and Rockies. The Teheran hype machine was on tilt coming out of spring training, but these first three regular season starts have quieted things down substantially. I'm not going to just dismiss Teheran as a future front line pitcher. He's got the stuff to make it happen. But there's also no doubt his stock is dropping and at least for the time being, Teheran is a pitcher worth fade consideration. He has yet to record a quality start and Coors would not seem like the best locale for a turnaround, even with the cold weather. Teheran is not exhibiting pinpoint control and his fly ball rate is on the high side. He's also up against a lineup that has been doing quite a bit of damage and I would say there's a good chance Teheran gets knocked around tonight.
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Jon Garland has been a stunning surprise to me in the early going. When I saw that Garland had made the Colorado rotation, I was pretty well convinced he would be done after a handful of starts. But while Garland is hardly dominant, he's locating his pitches really well and even with a little good fortune, the veteran righty is pitching solid ball. A very low walk rate and lots of ground balls has been Garland's recipe for success thus far, and if he can maintain those ratios, there's no reason he won't continue to succeed.
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No Jason Heyward here for Atlanta, but they are getting Freddie Freeman back from the DL. No idea if he plays both games, but if Freeman sits in one, it figures to be the nightcap. The weather at night figures to provide at least a small advantage to the Rockies. Right now, as far as whether this becomes a personal play is concerned, it's strictly in the lean category as I want to see the lineups for the second game before getting involved. But the data and the scenario at least favor the home team right now, so the Rockies in Game Two are today's free play.

Cajun SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Indians vs. White SoxFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 8FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cleveland Indians have been money when playing the over on the road facing a team that is suffering an extended losing streak of at least three-games. The Over has cashed at a rate of 18-0-1 Over since 2011. Play the Over