Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday April, 24

Marc Lawrence

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays

When the Blue Jays visit Baltimore to take on the Orioles in the first of a three games series Tuesday evening Toronto will send Henderson Alvarez to the hill knowing he is 3-0 with a 2.21 ERA in his last three April road team starts. he's also 2-1 in his career starts in this series. With the Birds back in town off a successful road trip, we'll look for them to fly south tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Toronto.

Rob Vinciletti

Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Atlanta Braves

The Dodgers fit a system that has won 11 of 13 times by playing against certain home teams off a home win by 5 or more runs if they had 10 or more hits with 4 or less men left on base, and are playing a road team off a 5 or more run road loss and scored 2 or less runs on 5+ hits. The Braves are 7-3 vs winning teams while the Dodgers have been beating up on teams that are below .500. Atlanta has won 8 of in night games and are averaging 6.5 runs the past week. The Dodgers in contrast are averaging 3.7 runs over that same span. Atlanta has Minor making the start and he has better current form than Harang for the Dodgers. Minor has a 3.10 era in his starts this season compared to 5.40 for Harang. Minor has won start vs the The Dodgers, a gem last season going 6 innings allowing just 1 run. Harang allowed 8 earned runs in 6 innings in a home start vs Atlanta last season. Look for The Braves to even the series here tonight.

Ben Burns

Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates

Yesterday's opener was postponed. As a result, we've got the same pitching matchup scheduled for today's game. I liked the Pirates before the cancellation and feel they're still providing us with solid value here.

The Pirates dropped Sunday's series finale vs. St. Louis and are now just 6-9 on the season. I believe that this will prove to be a favorable pitching matchup for them though and I expect them to start the new series off with a victory.

Correia gets the call and he's 1-0 with a superb 1.50 ERA and 0.833 WHIP. He's gone six complete innings in each start, allowing just seven total hits (0 HR's) in those two games and only two combined runs.

Moyer has also pitched quite well, despite having a 1-2 record. However, he's more than a little long in the tooth (he's now 49.5 years old!) and his lone road start saw him allow four runs (3 earned) in just five innings, giving up two home runs in the process. That translates to a 5.40 ERA.

It should also be noted that Moyer is 1-5 with a terrible 6.92 ERA in eight starts in Pittsburgh.

Correia doesn't have fantastic career numbers vs. Colorado. However, he was dominant in his lone 2011 start vs. the Rockies. In that 4/29 game, he allowed just three hits through 6 2/3 shutout innings, en route to earning a 3-0 victory.

Correia is supported by a Pittsburgh bullpen which has a 2.37 ERA (1.237 WHIP) including a spectacular 1.59 ERA at home. On the other hand, Moyer is backed by a Colorado bullpen which has an ugly 1.623 ERA and 1.692 WHIP on the road.

While the Rockies have the better overall record the past few seasons, the Pirates' home record has actually been superior to the Rockies' road record. With a price in the "pick'em" range, consider Pittsburgh.

Bryan Power

Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres
PICK: Washington Nationals

Light hitting San Diego (.188 team BA at home) simply cannot be trusted right now against a Washington club off to a very strong start at 12-4 for the season. It certainly will not help the Padres' cause that they are facing a lefty in Gio Gonzalez here. Not only has San Diego already dropped six of seven games vs. left-handed starters (.188 team BA), but Gonzalez is coming off back to back outings where went seven innings, surrendering no runs and just two hits.

A new addition to the Nats' starting rotation this season, Gonzalez has a 29-9 team start record as a favorite going back to his days in Oakland. Due to a rainout Sunday, Washington has been off for two days after taking two games from division rival Miami, including Saturday's 3-2 win. Note that the Nationals are a strong 26-8 when coming off a one run win the last two seasons, including 11-1 if it came against a fellow National League East foe.

San Diego is a brutal 13-30 the last 43 times it has been a home dog. Starter Clayton Richard looked awful last time out, allowing eight runs in less than six innings to Colorado.

David Chan

Clippers @ Atlanta
PICK: Under 192.5

I bet value where I see it and expect this total to sneak below the posted number.

The Clippers are 40-24 and are coming off a 107-98 win over New Orleans on Sunday.

It was the team's final home game of the year, and after a sluggish start, Chris Paul ended up with 33-points and 13-dimes; Randy Foye had 24-points; Blake Griffin added 21-points and 15-boards.

And with the win, the Clippers are now within a half-game of the Lakers for the Pacific division lead:

'We got to keep fighting,' Paul said. 'We got to win one more to lock up home court.'

'The last eight minutes turned it up on the defensive end, we got stops and we were able to get out in transition,' Paul said. 'Our bench came in and was huge.'

It's safe to say that we can expect a duplicate game-plan from this team tonight as it invades Philips Arena.

The Hawks are 38-26 and are coming off a 113-112 setback to the Knicks on Sunday.

Joe Johnson had 22-points:

'It's frustrating that we're still playing for something and defensively we were non-existent,' Johnson said. 'There was no help (on defense). If you were guarding somebody 1-on-1, you were definitely guarding 1-on-1.'

Atlanta holds the No. 5 seed in the East, and is also looking to clinch home court advantage throughout the playoffs, but will need to win out.

It's also safe to say, that after being so porous defensively last time out, and with the continued absence of big men Al Horford and ZaZa Pachulia, that a highly concerted collective effort on the defensive end of the floor will be paramount for this team tonight.

Note that the Clippers beat the Hawks 96-82 on March 14th, the total staying well below the posted number of 184.5 in that one, and I expect a very similar final today.

All signs point to another low-scoring affair!

Dave Cokin

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are a beat up entry with Hunter Pence now day to day, adding to their other notable absences. But Vance Worley is sharp and Josh Collmenter is anything but that for the Diamondbacks. Look for the Phils to rebound from Monday's loss with the Tuesday win.

Jim Feist

Hornets vs Warriors
Pick: Over

A pair of teams that have long been out of the playoff race, which means neither will care about defense. The over is 6-2 in the Hornets last 8 vs. a team with a losing record, plus they are 9-4 over the total vs. the NBA Pacific division. Golden State loves to run at home and the over is 10-4 in Warriors last 14 home games. And when these teams meet the over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings. Look for far more offense than oddsmakers expect (and no defense), Play the Hornets/Warriors over the total.

SPORTS WAGERS

Houston +127 over MILWAUKEE

These aren’t the same Brewers that have been contenders the past few years while being dominant at home. They nearly blew a 6-2 late lead last night and were lucky to win after the Astros had 13 hits and stranded 11 base-runners. That was with Zack Greinke pitching six full. Now the Brewers will send out Randy Wolf and his 8.80 ERA after three starts. The Brewers are 0-3 in Wolf’s starts in which he’s given up 15 earned runs in 15.1 innings. He also has a .357 BAA and a 1.97 WHIP. It’s still early but Wolf is not a groundball pitcher or strikeout pitcher. His strikeout rate continues to erode and he’s been outpitching his xERA for years. That luck is finally starting to run out on Wolf. It also helps our cause that Milwaukee’s pen is a mess with a 4.74 ERA and not a lot of help in sight. The Astros are competing most nights. They’re 6-11 and Bud Norris gives them a chance to win almost every time he takes the mound. He’s not in top form yet but has 16 K’s in 19 frames. Every season we’re seeing Norris increase his groundball and strikeout rates and that’s a strong sign of a pitcher on the rise. The Astros have won all three of his starts and there’s no reason they can’t win this one too. Play: Houston +127 (Risking 2 units).

San Francisco -103 over CINCINNATI

The Giants played a DH yesterday in New York and fatigue becomes much less of a factor when you sweep it, as San Fran did yesterday while outscoring the Mets 13-3. The Giants are now ranked sixth in the majors in team batting average, which is a far cry from last year’s bottom ranked offense. Mat Latos has yet to record a quality start thus far and has had a rough adjustment to Cincinnati after coming over from the Padres in the offseason. He has an 8.22 ERA through three starts with an 11-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 15.1 innings. He’s made just one start at Great American Ballpark and was lit up by the Marlins in his first start of the year. Subsequent starts in St. Louis and Washington were even worse. Latos is a rattled pitcher, the Reds are 0-3 in his starts and he has to be feeling a little anxious about pitching in this hitter’s park without a win or quality outing. Matt Cain has not allowed an earned run since April 8 and is sporting a 1.88 ERA through three starts. He also has a 19-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 24 innings and will face a Reds lineup that is hitting just .223 on the young season. The line says pick ém but the form says otherwise. Play: San Francisco -103 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

Chicago -102 over OAKLAND

The A’s have scored the least runs in the AL with 52. That’s about 20 runs less than the league average and serious frustration has to be setting in after they were shutout again last night. Meanwhile, the White Sox have scored 22 runs over their past four games in pitcher friendly parks in Seattle and Oakland. They’ve also won four in a row. Tom Milone goes for the A’s and brings a 2-1 record with a 2.84 ERA with him. You don’t often hear of a crafty 24-year-old lefty but that’s exactly what Milone is. This is a pitcher with good command and little else. Milone is consistently ahead of hitters but he lives in the meaty part of the strike zone too often and that’s trouble waiting to happen. A flyball pitcher with below average velocity has to be near flawless in hitting his spots to succeed and sooner rather than later, major league hitters will have the book on him. Gavin Floyd is a quality starter with solid strikeout and groundball rates and that’s the first sign we look at when assessing ability. His low strand rate of 65% last season reveals an unlucky pitcher with the strong likelihood of a big bounce back season this year. Floyd is 1-2 with a 6.35 ERA and with his stock low, now is the time to jump on him against this light hitting opponent. Floyd’s skill set insists he’s still very good. Play: Chicago -102 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).

JEFF BENTON

Your Tuesday night freebie is the Over in the Yankees-Rangers game.

Derek Jeter has been setting the table in a huge way for the Yankees who are currently averaging close to eight runs per game over their last eight games, and they have played Over the total in six of those eight games.

The jury is still out on New York starter Hiroki Kuroda, as he was hammered in his last start, and sports an April ERA of 5.00 this month.

Yu Darvish has won his last pair of starts for Texas, but both have been on the road.His lone start at home this year saw him get peppered by Seattle.

The teams have combined to play Over the total in six of their last eight series meetings dating back to last season, and the teams are 7-3-1 Over the total the last eleven meetings at the Ballpark at Arlington.

Right now the offense is having their way, and there are just too many big bats in both lineups for me to think that this is going to turn into a 2-1 pitchers duel.

I say "bombs away" in Texas tonight, the Over the way to go in the Yankees-Rangers contest.

3♦ OVER

Sean Murphy

Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays

While I do think there's money to be made backing the Angels this week, that's not the case in this particular spot.

The Halos have won two of their last three games, winning a series against the Orioles over the weekend, but let's not get too excited. They benefited from facing the O's weakest starter in Brian Matusz on Friday, and followed that up by sending their ace, Jered Weaver, to the mound on Saturday. Despite Dan Haren's sparkling performance on Sunday, they still weren't able to complete the series sweep, falling in extra innings.

Los Angeles begins this road trip with a disappointing 6-10 record in tow. Things don't figure to get any easier in the opener of this series, as they run into a surging Rays club that has been terrific at home, going 5-1 so far this season.

The Rays have won four of their last five games, with their lone loss over that stretch coming in their first game back home following a long road trip. They didn't get into St. Petersburg until 4 am on Friday morning, before hosting the Twins that night. We cashed with Minnesota in that spot, but from there, it was all Rays, as they took the next two games in the series by a combined 10-3 score.

Everything is working for the Rays right now, from pitching to hitting to fielding. This is another chance for them to make a statement against what is expected to be an elite American League team before it's all said and done.

David Price will take the ball for the Rays. We still haven't seen his best stuff this season, as he checks in 2-1 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. It is worth noting that his most effective performance came in his lone start here at home, as he held the Yankees to five hits and two earned runs over 6 1/3 innings back on April 7th. He has had some success against the Angels, with the Rays going 3-1 in his four starts against them since the start of the 2010 season.

Ervin Santana will counter for the Angels. He hasn't been sharp in any of his three previous outings this season, allowing at least four earned runs and exactly two home runs in each. All three starts have resulted in losses, with the Angels being outscored by a whopping 18-3 margin.

Santana did turn in a terrific outing here at Tropicana Field last season, allowing only one earned run over six innings in an eventual 8-5 victory, but keep in mind, that came when the Rays were struggling. He's running into a much different ball club now.

Facing two young starters in Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore over the next two days, I suspect the Halos will have better opportunities to win in this series. I'm expecting a solid bounce-back effort from David Price tonight, while the Rays surging offense does the rest.

Jack Jones

Clippers / Hawks Under 192½

The Los Angeles Clippers and Atlanta Hawks each still have something to play for heading into their showdown tonight. With what's at stake, I look for these teams to take part in a defensive battle in this one.

Atlanta (38-26) holds a one-game lead over Atlantic Division champion Boston, which is guaranteed the No. 4 seed in the playoffs. The Hawks have clinched the fifth seed, and would have the home edge for their playoff series against the Celtics if they finish with a better record than Boston, which hosts Miami on Tuesday.

The scenario is simpler for Los Angeles (40-24), which needs one win or a loss by Memphis to ensure it will begin the playoffs at Staples Center. The Clippers must win Tuesday to keep alive their hopes of gaining the Pacific Division title and No. 3 seed. They'd also have to beat New York on Wednesday and hope the Lakers lose Thursday's finale at Sacramento.

Both teams have been great defensively all season. The Hawks give up just 93.1 points/game while the Clippers yield 94.7 points/game. The UNDER is 6-0 in Clippers last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 13-4 in Hawks last 17 vs. Western Conference foes. Atlanta is 51-28 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

Steve Janus

New York Mets +106

The Mets are showing some solid value as a home underdog tonight. New York will send out Johan Santana against Josh Johnson. Santana had a rough outing his last time out, but that start came on the road. Santana has been brilliant in his two starts at home, allowing just 1 run on seven hits over 10 innings of work. Santana is 6-1 with a 1.47 ERA and 0.946 WHIP in nine career starts against the Marlins.

Johnson appears to be getting a lot of respect based off what he has done in the past, but he has really struggled in 2012. Johnson is 0-2 with 5.94 ERA and 2.040 WHIP. A big sign that he is not in top form is the fact that he has just 8 strike outs over 16.7 innings of work.

The Marlins are just 2-10 against the money line when Johnson starts on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons.

Dave Price

Philadelphia Phillies -110

Philly has the definite edge on the mound with Worley (2.37 ERA) against Collmenter (10.22 ERA). The Phillies are 8-2 in Worley's last 10 road starts and 5-1 in his last 6 starts as a road favorite. Also, the Diamondbacks are just 1-4 in Collmenter's last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Philly has been offensively challenged early as it is missing some key bats but should be able to give Worley enough support here against the struggling Collmenter.

Jimmy Boyd

St. Louis Cardinals -145

Wainwright has struggled out of the gate, but I expect him to snap out of it this evening versus a Chicago club with a lousy .292 on-base percentage. The Cards enter this contest with a .340 on-base percentage.

Wainwright was shelled by the Cubs in his second start of the season, but he's too good to let the Northsiders get the best of him again. The Cardinals are 8-3 in Wainwright's last 11 starts vs. the Cubs and 6-0 in his last 6 starts at Wrigley.

The Cubs squeaked out a 3-2 win yesterday, but they are still just 2-7 in their last 9 overall and 1-6 in their last 7 games following a win. We'll take the Cards in this bounce back spot.