Jeff Alexander
Milwaukee Brewers -135
Wolf has struggled early but I'll get behind him here considering his solid career numbers versus Houston (2.98 ERA in 19 starts) and the fact the Astros are hitting just .190 off southpaw starters this season. The Brewers are 7-0 in Wolf's last 7 home starts vs. a team with a losing record and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. Astros. The Astros are only 8-21 in their last 29 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Bet the Brew Crew.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
Boston/ Minnesota Under 8.5: No I haven't learned my lesson from yesterday as i had the under in this game and the teams combined for 11 runs. Tonight it should be different though. Both pitchers have struggled out the gate this year, but these are two teams that both pitchers like facing. Josh Becket has a 5.03 ERA to start the year, but with a solid 1.12 WHIP and he has a 3.00 ERA in 5 starts vs the Twins, including an 0.64 ERA in his last 2 starts vs them. Josh also allowed just 1 ER in 7 innings in his lone start here, back in 2009. Nick Blackburn had a rough opening game vs the Angels as he allowed 5 ER in 6 innings, but he bounced back with a good showing vs Texas, allowing just 2 ER in 5.1 innings of work. Nick has a 2.20 ERA in 5 starts vs the Sox and a 3.60 ERA in 28 career starts at Target Field. The Boston Bullpen has had its problems this year, but did allow 0 ER in 2 innings last night, while the Twins pen has been decent with a 3.50 ERA on the year. Both pitchers should once again have solid outings vs these teams as this gets at the most 6 runs.
4 UNIT PLAY
Washington -117 over SAN DIEGO: The Nats had a rainout on Sunday and a scheduled day off yesterday, so they should be a fresh team for this one. Gio Gonzalez is 1-0 on the year, while the Nats are 3-0 in his starts. He comes in with a 2.04 ERA and an 0.91 WHIP in his 3 starts and he hasn't allowed an ER in his last 2 starts (14 innings). He did struggle on a windy day in Chicago in his first start of the year, but he will have no such weather problems in this Pitchers park tonight. Also facing a San Diego team that is hitting just .185 and scoring 3 rpg at home is a plus as well. Gio is now 4-3 with a 2,43 ERA in 13 career starts vs NL teams. He will be opposed by Clayton Richards, who is 1-1 on the year, with a high 5.89 ERA. Granted that all of the damage done vs him was on the road, as he allowed 0 ER in his lone home start vs the Dodgers, but this Washington offense is really looking to break out and maybe after getting away from the pressure of home they will do just that. Washington is the better team here, with the hotter pitcher on the mound and they should start this trip out on the right foot.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Colorado/ Pittsburgh Over 7.5: The Pirates have yet to play a game this year where more than 5 runs have been scored by either team, but that may end tonight. 300 year old Jamie Moyer gets the ball for the Rockies tonight and while he has really pitched well this year so far he did struggle some in his lone road start (allowing 6 hits and 4 runs (3 ER) in just 5 innings of work at Houston. Dating back to 2010, Jamie now has a 5.92 ERA in his last 12 road starts. Pittsburgh is also a team he has not done well vs over the years, as he has a 5.20 ERA in 16 career starts vs them, including an ERA of 6.92 in his 8 starts in Pittsburgh. Just 43 AB's have been made by current Pittsburgh plays vs Moyer and this offense has struggled, but they were starting to get good swings in their last series vs St Louis, so they are about due to breakout here. The Colorado Offense has been solid out the gate, putting up 4.8 rpg and hitting .262 to start the year and they should have some success vs Kevin Correia, who does have a 1.50 ERA on the year, but both starts were on the road and now he is at home, where he has struggled in his career. Dating back to 2010, Kevin has posted a 6.51 ERA in 26 home starts between San Diego and Pittsburgh, including a 7.83 ERA in his last 12 starts at PNC park. The Key here is the Pitsburgh offense waking up and they should vs Moyer, while Colorado should tag Correia for a few as well. We also have the added advantange of a 15+ mph wind blow straight out to center. This game could reach DD.
TEXAS -135 over NY Yanks: Last night I went with the Yanks for a few reasons, but a big one was that the Rangers were off a long road trip and teams that came home form those trips don't usually do well. Officially now teams off a long trip (9 or more games) are 0-3 on the year, but the 2nd game back they are 2-0. I see a 3-0 mark in those games after tonight. Yu Davrish had a rough outing in his first start of the year, in which he posted a 7.94 ERA at home vs Seattle. In that game he allowed 5 ER in the first 2 innings, but then nothing for the next 3.2 innings of work, while in his next 2 starts he has allowed just 2 ER, giving him an ERA of 1.15 in his last 15.2 innings of work. His problem though is still a high WHIP that is at 1.81, thanks to 13 walks in 17.2 innings of work, but he has still avoided much trouble with them with timely DP groundballs and that is something the Yanks do frequently, as they are 25th in the league in grounding into DP's. The Rangers offense still looking to break out at home and they should get a good chance vs Hiroki Kuroda tonight. Hirokii is 1-2 on the year with a 5.00 ERA, while in his lone road start he is 0-1 with a 6.35 ERA. He has faced Texas just once in his career and allowed 8 hits and 5 runs (4 ER) in just 5.1 innings of work. With the Struggles Detroit is having right now I feel the Rangers are the class of the AL and will bpounce back strong tonight behind another solid outing from Davrish.
Atlanta -113 Over LA DODGERS: The Braves offense was held in check last night as they put up just 2 runs on Dodger pitching last night, but this offense has still averaged 7.3 rpg in their last 7 games and 5.6 rpg on this current trip. Tonight the should have a good showing vs Aaron Harang who is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA so far and he has a 1.62 WHIP to go along with that and giving this Atlanta offense a lot of baserunners is not good. Aaron has not fared well vs the Braves, going 1-3 with a 4.43 ERA in 9 starts vs them. The Dodger offense has been very good at home as they have averaged 5.1 rpg and hit .293, but they have struggled some vs lefties of late, posting a .244 average and scoring just 2.74 rp/9 off of them in their last 5 games. Mike Monor is a tough lefty and is 2-1 with a 3.10 ERA, while he also has an impressive WHIP of 0.89 in the 3 starts. Mike has 1 start vs LA and it was last year in a game that he allowed just 1 ER in 6 innings of work. The Braves are still the better team here and have the better hurler on the mound, so I look for them to bounce back with a sold win here.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Philadelphia -1.5 (+145) over ARIZONA: The Phils bats finally woke up last night in the 9th inning and I feel it will carry over to today. Last night they faced a bad pitcher in the 9th (Joe Paterson) and tonight they will be facing another bad pitcher in Jake Collmenter and that should allow last night's 9th inning to continue. Jake come in 0-1 in his 3 starts with a high 10.22 ERA. The Phils should have some success vs him today. Vance Worley has been a tough Pitcher for the Phils and while he is just 1-1 so far on the year he does have a solid 2.37 ERA. The Phils need a big game from him today and they should get it, while their offense has a good showing vs Collmenter. Phils by 3 or more here.
Cleveland/ Kansas City Over 8.5: This game should have been rated as a top play, but the wind (18 mph in from left) is going to be a bit of an issue, so i will make it a lesser play. Little or no wind and this one is at least a 4 Unit play. Johnathan Sanchez has struggled so far, with a 6.39 ERA and a 1.89 WHIP in his 3 starts so far, while his 3 starts have averaged 12.3 rpg. Derek Lowe has a nice opener at home vs the Jays (0 ER in 7 innings) and he comes in with a solid 3.50 ERA (1.71 WHIP), but in his last 5 starts vs the Royals he has a 4.60 ERA, while in 7 of his last 8 starts vs them there has been at least 9 runs put on the board. Derek also has an ERA of 4.63 in his last 17 starts vs AL Teams, plus he has a 5.16 ERA in his last 8 starts vs the Royals. The Cleveland offense is hot, while the Royals offense seems to be coming around as well. Look for this one to hit DD, despite the wind and chilly conditions.
1 UNIT PLAY
St Louis -130 over CHICAGO: Cards took a tough loss last night, but I expect them to bounce back here behind Wainright, who is looking for his first win on the year. Adam took a beating from Chicago earlier, but in his last 3 trips to Wrigley he has allowed just 4 ERA in 21 innings of work. Jeff Samardzija is 2-1 on the year, but with a 5.71 ERA and he has a 7.80 ERA in 3 starts vs the Cards, despite a 2-1 mark. I look for Adam to get his first win tonight and for the Cards to bounce back after last night's bottom of the 9th loss.
WUNDERDOG
New York Yankees at Texas
Pick: Under 10
The Texas Rangers have been victimizing opposing pitchers with the longball, but last night got a taste of their own medicine as A-Rod blasted a three-run homer to do them in. Tonight Hiroki Kuroda, who has a long track record of pitching low-run games, takes the mound vs. the Rangers. The Rangers counter with Yu Darvish, making this the first game in MLB history where a pair of native- Japanese pitchers duel it out vs. each other. After an auspicious debut, Darvish has settled down to pitch gems, and is living up to the hype. The Yankees have also long struggled when they see a pitcher for the first time. The Rangers are now 12-3-1 to the UNDER in their last 16 as a favorite, while the Yanks are 7-3-1 to the UNDER on the road to a total of 9 to 10.5 in their last 11. The Rangers are also 6-1 to the UNDER in their last seven vs. a right-hander. Play the UNDER.
MLB Predictions
San Francisco Giants -103
San Francisco is coming off a double-header in New York yesterday where they went 2-0. The two wins gave them a 3-1 victory in their four game set versus the Mets, and they are now 5-1 in their last 6 games overall to improve to 9-7 on the season and 5-5 on the road. The Reds had a day off yesterday as they returned home from a 10 game road trip. The Reds went 4-6 on the road trip making them 7-9 on the season and they are 3-3 at home. The Giants combined for 24 hits in their two games yesterday, and they did a good job saving their bullpen as they only needed to work 6 innings over the two games (split up between 6 relievers). Matt Cain will get his fourth start of the season tonight as he looks to improve on his 1-0 record. Cain has pitched 24 innings of work which includes back to back complete game shutouts. His ERA is sitting at 1.88, while his WHIP is a stellar 0.50 and opponents are batting just .114 against hi,. Last season Cain was 12-11 with a 2.88 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and .217 opponents batting average. Cain has struck out 19 while walking only 3 this year. The Reds are struggling at the plate and averaging just 3.31 runs per game, while their big three (Votto, Phillips, and Bruce) are batting just .234 against Cain lifetime. Tonight's starter for Cincinnati is Mat Latos who came over from San Diego in the offseason. Latos hasn't been what the Reds were hoping for so far going 0-2 over his first three starts with a 8.22 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, and .328 opponents batting average. Latos' longest outing was just 5.2 innings in his last start in St Louis where he gave up 9 hits and 8 earned runs. He has struck out 11 while walking 8 batters. Take note that while this line is near a pick'em the Giants are 4-1 in Cain's last 5 games as an underdog. They are also 11-3 in his lsat 14 starts with 5 days of rest. Again this line is a pick'em price, but the Reds are 0-8 in their last 8 games as a home underdog, and 9-25 in their lsat 34 games as an underdog overall. The Reds are 1-9 in their last 10 home games vs a team with a winning record. The Giants should be ready for this night game after the double header and I don't think that will affect them. Matt Cain has been lights out and too much respect is being given to Latos with three straight poor outings. Take the GIANTS at a good price.
Vegas Experts
Florida Panthers at New Jersey Devils
Play: New Jersey Devils
We've already got a pair of Game 7's on tap in the first round of the NHL Playoffs and tonight we look for the Devils to make it a trifecta. New Jersey hosts Florida in Game 6 after the two teams have exchanged shut outs in the previous two games. Last time on this rink, the Panthers lost 4-0. They came back with a 3-0 win of their own in Game 5, but that sets them up poorly as they are a money burning 9-30 when off a shut out win at home. Play on: New Jersey
David Banks
Phoenix Suns +4
It will be a pseudo playoff game when the Phoenix Suns (33-31, 34-30 ATS) pay a visit to the Utah Jazz (34-30, 33-30-1 ATS) at EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City, UT on Tuesday night at 10:30 ET, where you can catch the action on TNT. It has come down to these two teams for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference, with the Jazz holding a one-game lead coming in and each team having one more game left after this one on Thursday. However, the Suns have already clinched the season series between these teams by winning the first two meetings, and thus it is Phoenix that owns the tiebreaker in the event of a tie.
The simplest scenario would be the Jazz winning this game, as Utah would then clinch the final playoff spot, rendering the season finales of the two teams moot. That may not be as easy as it sounds considering that Phoenix has dominated this head-to-head series, winning the last seven meetings straight up while going 6-1 against the spread in those games. Granted the Jazz have been as solid home team this year going 23-8 straight up and 19-12 ATS at Salt Lake, but they did suffer what could turn out to be a critical 107-105 loss to these Suns here when the teams last met on April 4th. Utah has a three-game winning streak entering this contest, but the Jazz have been rather fortunate considering that they have two overtime home wins over the Dallas Mavericks and Orlando Magic during this streak, sandwiched around a blowout road win over the Portland Trail Blazers. Yes, Utah can score as it is ranked fifth in the NBA at 99.7 points per game, an average that jumps up to 102.2 points here at home. However, the defense is a concern as it is ranked 23rd allowing 99.3 points per game, and that average has swelled to 103.6 points over the last five games.
Now if the Suns complete the series sweep by winning in Utah for the second time this month and beating the Jazz for the eighth straight time, they will take over the eighth spot despite the teams being in a flat-footed tie in the standings, and everything will come down to Thursday with both teams being home, as the Suns finish up with the currently top-seeded San Antonio Spurs and the Jazz wrap up with the long ago eliminated Portland Trail Blazers. Phoenix is not exactly entering this game with good momentum, as the Suns have lost two out of three games including a possibly fatal home loss to the Denver Nuggets on Saturday. That loss put Phoenix in the position of having to win this game to stay alive, and winning in Utah again may not be easy despite the Suns' recent dominance in this series, considering that they allowed the Jazz to shoot 50.6 percent from the field while escaping with that two-point win last time. Phoenix is seventh in the NBA in scoring at 98.4 points per game but it is 20th in defense at 98.4 points, and that has ballooned to a whopping 105.8 points in the last five games.
In fact, the last five Utah games have averaged a combined 210.6 points while the last five Phoenix games have averaged 208.4 points, and Phoenix has won the two meetings this season by scores of 107-105 and 120-111 with both contests easily going 'over'. That did snap a streak of five consecutive 'unders' in the previous five meetings though.