SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Miami (1-3 SU and ATS) at Boston (3-1 SU and ATS)
The Celtics get their second chance to finish off this first-round best-of-7 series when they return home to TD Garden to meet the Heat in Game 5.
The desperate Heat finally cracked the playoff win column in a back-and-forth, 101-92 Game 4 victory Sunday as a 1½-point home favorite. Miami jumped out to a 13-point lead after the first quarter, got outscored by 19 in the middle two frames, then rallied with 30 in the fourth quarter while holding the Celts to 15. The Heat snapped an eight-game SU losing streak to Boston.
Dwyane Wade went off for 46 points, going 16 of 24 from the floor, including 5 of 7 from 3-point range. In fact, the Heat shot better from long distance (10 of 18, 55.6 percent) than they did overall (38 of 76, 50 percent).
Boston shot a respectable 49.3 percent (34 of 69) on Sunday, but went just 8 of 21 from beyond the arc (38.1 percent) and was just 16 of 27 at the free-throw line (59.3 percent). None of the Big Three of Kevin Garnett (18 points), Paul Pierce (16) and Ray Allen (15) could even reach 20 points, and the Celtics also got outrebounded 43-35. Rajon Rondo led Boston with 23 points and nine assists.
Miami entered the postseason having won eight in a row on the road, then lost Games 1 and 2 SU and ATS at Boston. The Heat are now 23-20 SU (24-19 ATS) on the highway this season, narrowly outscoring opponents 95.3-95.2, while shooting 45.7 percent and allowing 43.6 percent. Boston is 26-17 SU at home, but despite cashing in the first two contests of this series, the Celtics remain a meager 18-28-1 ATS in Beantown, where they average 100.1 ppg (48.8 percent shooting) and give up 96.0 (45.7 percent).
Boston has now taken eight of the last nine (6-3 ATS) against Miami and 14 of the last 16 (11-5 ATS). The chalk has cashed in 12 of the last 15 clashes, and the SU winner is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 head-to-head battles. In addition, the SU winner has covered in Miami’s last 11 postseason affairs and is 14-3-1 ATS in Boston’s last 18 playoff games.
The Heat are on a handful of ATS slides, including 3-6 overall, 4-10-1 in opening-round playoff games (2-6 last eight), 0-4 as a playoff pup and 1-4 after a SU win. However, they’ve cashed in seven of their last 10 roadies and are 4-1 ATS in their last five after a day off and 4-0 ATS in their last four as a pup of five to 10½ points.
The Celts are on ATS runs of 5-1 in first-round games, 4-1 as a playoff chalk, 4-1 after either a SU or an ATS setback and 5-2 against winning teams, but they remain in ATS ruts of 8-19-1 at the Garden and 7-18-2 after a day off.
Miami is on “over” strings of 7-2 overall, 8-2 against winning teams and 4-1 after a day off, but the Heat also carry “under” trends of 12-5-2 on the road and 9-3-1 as a road pup. Boston holds “over” streaks of 10-3 overall, 6-1 at home, 7-1 in first-round playoff games, 7-2 against winning teams, 13-3 after a non-cover and 35-16 when coming off a SU loss.
Finally, the total has cleared the posted price in eight of the last 10 meetings between these rivals, including the last three in this series and five of the last six dating to regular-season play. The over is also 4-1 in the last five Heat-Celtics games in Beantown.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Chicago (1-3, 2-2 ATS) at Cleveland (3-1, 2-2 ATS)
The Cavaliers look to close out the Central Division rival Bulls and move into the second round for the fifth straight year when they host this Game 5 clash at Quicken Loans Arena.
Cleveland bounced back from its Game 3 loss by pounding Chicago 121-98 as a 5½-point road chalk in Game 4 on Sunday. LeBron James spun a triple-double of 37 points, 12 rebounds (all defensive) and 11 assists, hitting 6 of 9 from 3-point range and 11 of 17 overall (64.7 percent). Antawn Jamison added 24 points for the Cavs, who shot a stout 53.2 percent (42 of 79), making 12 of 25 from long range (48 percent).
Joakim Noah and Derrick Rose each had 21 points for Chicago, with Noah adding a whopping 20 rebounds, but the Bulls shot a paltry 37.4 percent (34 of 91), including 33.3 percent from beyond the arc (4 of 12). Vinny Del Negro’s troops were down 23 after three quarters before finally playing the Cavs even in the meaningless fourth frame.
The Bulls are 17-26 SU on the road (23-20 ATS), getting outscored 101.0-96.7 and outshot 45.6 percent to 45.0 percent, but they’ve gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 roadies (1-1 ATS in Cleveland in this series). Meanwhile, the Cavs are 37-6 SU at home this year, but have gone just 17-26 ATS, outscoring visitors by an average of about six ppg (103.6-98.0) and holding a 48.3 percent to 45.4 percent shooting edge.
The underdog is 6-3 ATS in the last nine contests in this rivalry, and the home squad is on a 20-10 ATS roll, with Cleveland going 11-4 ATS in the last 15 contests at the Q. In addition, the SU winner is 30-3 ATS in the last 33 head-to-head clashes between these two.
Despite Sunday’s blowout loss, the Bulls are on a bundle of ATS surges, including 14-7 overall, 19-9-1 against Central Division rivals, 9-1 after a SU loss, 7-3 as an underdog, 7-3 as a playoff ‘dog and 5-1 as a road pup. However, they are still 5-10 ATS in their last 15 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
The Cavaliers are on ATS purges of 4-10 overall (2-5 last seven), 2-6 at home, 3-8 as a favorite, 1-6 after a SU win and 2-6 after a day off, but they remain on playoff ATS rolls of 14-5 in first-round play (7-2 last nine) and 17-6-1 as a chalk.
Chicago is on “over” stretches of 19-7-1 in first-round playoff games (7-1 last eight), 5-1 as a ‘dog and 10-1 as a playoff pup, and the over is on runs for Cleveland of 7-3 overall, 7-1 as a playoff chalk, 5-0 when laying 11 points or more and 4-0 after either a SU or an ATS win.
Finally, four of the last five meetings in this rivalry have cleared the posted price, including three in a row in this playoff series, after Game 1 stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and OVER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
San Antonio (3-1 SU and ATS) at Dallas (1-3 SU and ATS)
The seventh-seeded Spurs aim to complete a first-round upset when they travel to the American Airlines Center for Game 5 against the second-seeded Mavericks.
San Antonio erased a 48-37 halftime deficit by outscoring Dallas 29-11 in the third quarter of Game 4 Sunday, then held on for a 92-89 victory to get the push as a three-point home chalk and take a commanding 3-1 series lead. George Hill was the surprise star, racking up a game-high 29 points, including a 5-for-6 effort on 3-pointers. The Spurs, who dropped Game 1 in Dallas, won their third in a row despite a woeful four-point outing from Tim Duncan, who went 1-for-9 from the floor, but did contribute 11 rebounds.
Dallas didn’t get a single player past 17 points, with Dirk Nowitzki and Caron Butler each reaching that mark, and Nowitzki adding 11 boards. The Mavericks got outshot 45.3 percent to 41.6 percent.
The Spurs are 30-13 SU (21-22 ATS) on the highway this year, outscoring foes by about a bucket per game (97.3-95.4), while shooting 45.6 percent and allowing 44.3 percent. The Mavs stand at 29-14 SU at home, but are a paltry 12-30-1 ATS, averaging 101.5 ppg (45.9 percent) and giving up 99.5 ppg (46.2 percent).
This series could end up being a reversal of last year’s first-round clash, which Dallas won in five games (4-1 ATS). San Antonio’s SU and ATS victories in the last three contests halted a 4-0 SU and ATS run by Dallas in this rivalry. The Mavs are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings, the host is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 matchups, and Dallas is still on a 6-1 ATS run in its last seven home starts against Gregg Popovich’s troops (the lone exception coming in Game 2 of this series).
In addition, the SU winner is on a 16-1-1 ATS tear when these squads hook up.
The Spurs are in a 1-5 ATS slide as a playoff pup, but are otherwise on pointspread upswings of 20-8-1 overall, 8-2-1 after a day off, 14-5-1 in the West and 8-3-1 against winning teams. The Mavericks are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine overall, and they are on further pointspread upticks of 6-2-1 after a day off and 5-1 laying points, but they are just 8-29-1 ATS in their last 38 home games and 5-11 ATS in their last 16 as a playoff chalk.
San Antonio is on “under” runs of 5-1-1 overall, 6-1-1 against winning teams, 7-1-1 getting points, 12-3-2 as a road pup and 8-3 coming off a SU win. Likewise, Dallas is on a boatload of “under” sprees, including 11-4-1 overall (4-0-1 last five, all against the Spurs), 5-0-1 inside the Southwest Division, 5-1 after a SU loss and 4-1 following a day off.
Finally, the under is 6-1-1 in this year’s eight clashes in this rivalry, with the last three games of this playoff series staying below the total after a push in Game 1.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Oklahoma City (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS)
After dominating Games 3 and 4 to draw even in this best-of-7 series, the young Thunder hope to maintain their momentum when they return to the Staples Center for Game 5 against the defending NBA champion Lakers.
Oklahoma City rallied for a 101-96 victory on Thursday as a 3½-point home favorite and then delivered a 110-89 beating on Saturday, easily cashing as a one-point chalk. The Thunder held Kobe Bryant to just 12 points and outrebounded the Lakers 50-43 in Sunday’s win. Regular-season scoring champ Kevin Durant went 6-for-12 for 22 points and guard Russell Westbrook had 18 points, eight boards and six assists.
Oklahoma City is 23-20 (27-16 ATS) on the highway this season and it has dropped five straight (2-3 ATS) on the road, including the first two games of this series by eight and three points. Los Angeles is 36-7 inside Staples Center, but just 17-24-2 ATS, despite outscoring the opposition by more than eight ppg (103.3-94.9).
The Thunder haven’t been in the playoffs since 2005 when the franchise was the Seattle SuperSonics and they reached the Western Conference semifinals, losing to the Spurs 4-2 (3-3 ATS), after beating Sacramento 4-1 (3-2 ATS) in the opening round. The Lakers’ march to the title last season included a 4-1 (2-3 ATS) series win over the Jazz, 4-3 (SU and ATS) over the Rockets, 4-2 (3-3 ATS) over the Nuggets and then 4-1 (SU and ATS) over the Magic in the NBA Finals. L.A. has reached the postseason five straight times and 15 times in the last 16 years.
The Lakers had won 14 of 15 (6-9 ATS) in this rivalry prior to dropping the last two games. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City has cashed in three straight and five of the last six clashes, including two of the last three in Los Angeles.
The Thunder are on several positive ATS runs, including 4-1 overall, 10-2 after two days off, 19-7 on the road against teams with winning home records, 10-4 as an underdog, 14-6 as a road ‘dog, 21-9 against winning teams and 38-17-1 on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is on several negative ATS slides, including 1-6 overall, 1-4 as a home favorite, 1-4 after a non-cover, 2-5-1 after two days off, 4-11 on Tuesday and 1-6 against winning teams.
Oklahoma City is on “over” streaks of 10-4 overall, 7-2 on the road, 12-3-1 on Tuesday, 5-2 as a road ‘dog, 20-7 after a straight-up win and 5-2 against Western Conference teams. The Lakers have topped the total in four of five after a non-cover, but they’re otherwise on “under” runs of 7-1 at home, 18-8 against Western Conference teams, 31-15 after a straight-up loss, 20-6 as a playoff favorite, 23-8 against Northwest Division teams, 7-1 as a home favorite and 13-3 at home against teams with winning road marks.
In this series, the “under” has cashed in four of the last five meetings in Hollywood, with the first two contests of this playoff series easily staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia (11-8) at San Francisco (11-8)
Fresh off a dominating effort in his last start at Atlanta, the ageless Jamie Moyer (2-1, 5.00 ERA) hits the road for the third time in four games this season when he leads the Phillies against Todd Wellemeyer (0-3, 8.16) and the Giants in the middle game of a three-game series at AT&T Park.
San Francisco became the first team this season to rough up Phillies ace Roy Halladay, scoring five runs in six innings against the right-hander en route to Monday’s 5-1 series-opening victory. The Giants have followed up a four-game losing skid (all on the road) by winning four of five (all at home. Bruce Bochy’s bunch has won 11 of 14 at AT&T Park going back to last season.
Philadelphia, which is in the midst of a nine-game road trip, has dropped three of its last four, and since starting the season 8-2 (including 5-1 on the road), the Phillies have lost six of their last nine games. However, the two-time defending N.L. champs remain on positive runs 37-19 versus the N.L. West, 9-4 against right-handed starters and 5-2 on Tuesday.
The Giants edged Philly in the season series last year, winning four of seven meetings, and they’re 7-3 in the last 10 series clashes, including 6-1 in the last seven at AT&T Park.
Moyer toyed with the Braves on Tuesday, scattering four hits, two walks and two unearned runs in six innings, leading Philadelphia to an 8-3 victory. Moyer has pitched exactly six innings in all three of his starts this season, and the 47-year-old has 11 strikeouts against just four walks in 18 innings. Dating to last season, the Phillies have won seven of Moyer’s last nine road starts, but they’re still 2-6 in his last eight outings overall.
Moyer is 4-6 with a 3.31 ERA in 11 career starts against the Giants, but 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA in two games in San Francisco. He last faced the Giants in 2008, giving up six runs in four innings of an 8-2 road loss.
Wellemeyer’s first season in San Francisco hasn’t gotten off to a very good start, as the right-hander has allowed 13 runs on 13 hits (five home runs) and 11 walks in 14 1/3 innings. On Wednesday, he held the Padres to two runs in four innings, but still lost 5-2 in San Diego. In his first home start, Wellemeyer gave up four runs in 6 1/3 innings of a 7-2 loss to the Braves.
Going back to last July when he was pitching for the Cardinals, Wellemeyer has gotten out of the fifth inning just twice in his last seven starts, giving up four runs or more in six of those seven games. Over this seven-start stretch, Wellemeyer’s teams are 1-6 and he has a 6.68 ERA, and he’s allowed 11 home runs in 32 1/3 innings. Wellemeyer is also 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in eight career games against the Phillies, and his teams have lost all four of his starts against Philadelphia by a combined score of 41-12.
Philadelphia is on a slew of “over” runs, including 30-12-2 overall, 21-10 on the road, 5-2 against the N.L. West and 17-8 against right-handed starters, but the under is 10-4-1 in the Phillies’ last 15 Tuesday contests and 5-2 in Moyer’s last seven road outings. Conversely, the Giants have stayed low in eight straight games overall, and five straight games at home.
Finally, six of the last seven clashes between these teams have stayed under the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Minnesota (13-6) at Detroit (11-9)
The top two teams in the A.L. Central hook up for the first time since the Twins won a one-game playoff for the division title last October, as red-hot Francisco Liriano (2-0, 1.29) takes the mound for the visitors opposite Justin Verlander (1-1, 6.95) in the opener of a three-game series at Comerica Park.
Minnesota began a nine-game A.L. Central road trip by taking two of three in Kansas City over the weekend, winning the first two contests before losing 4-3 on Sunday. The Twins haven’t lost consecutive games all season, and they’re 13-5 overall and 7-2 on the highway since losing at the Angels on Opening Day. Additionally, Ron Gardenhire’s team is on surges of 41-20 in divisional contests, 19-7 in series openers, 30-12 against right-handed starters and 22-6 on Tuesday, though the Twins have lost four of five after a day off.
Detroit jumped out to a 4-0 first-inning lead at Texas on Monday but eventually gave it all up and had to rally for an 8-6 victory to earn a split of the four-game series. The Tigers have played just six home games, winning four of them, and they’re 9-3 in their last 12 versus southpaw starters, 21-6 in their last 27 at home against lefties and 5-2 in their last seven divisional games. However, Detroit has dropped four straight series openers.
Minnesota staged a furious rally over the final week of the 2009 season to catch the freefalling Tigers in the divisional race. Then in an epic one-game playoff in Minneapolis, the teams went into the 12th inning tied at 4-4 when Detroit scored in the top of the 12th to take the lead, only to see the Twins answer with two in the bottom of the inning to steal the 6-5 victory and the division title.
Including the one-game playoff, the Twins went 12-7 against Detroit last year, with the home team winning 13 of the final 18 contests.
Liriano has delivered three straight quality starts to begin 2010, and is coming off two outstanding performances at home, leading the Twins to shutout wins over the Red Sox (8-0) and Indians (6-0). In the two victories, Liriano allowed just 10 hits and four walks while striking out 14 in 15 scoreless innings. His only road effort so far came at Chicago on April 9, and he gave up three runs on four hits and five walks in six innings, failing to get a decision in his team’s 4-3 win.
The Twins are 3-0 with Liriano on the hill this season after losing six of his final seven starts of 2009. Also, Minnesota is just 1-5 in Liriano’s last six road starts, but 4-1 in his last five on Tuesday and 5-0 in his last five when he comes off five days of rest. For his career, the 26-year-old is just 12-14 with a 5.17 ERA on the road compared with 14-8 with a 2.77 ERA at home.
Liriano has faced the Tigers 11 times (seven starts), going 3-1 with a 4.56 ERA, including 1-1 with a 5.75 ERA in five games (three starts) in Motown. In his last three starts against Detroit (two last year), he’s given up seven runs in 21 1/3 innings (2.95 ERA), walking six and whiffing 26. In fact, Liriano has a career 64-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio versus the Tigers.
Verlander is coming off Thursday’s 5-4 victory at the Angels, though he wasn’t particularly sharp as he surrendered all four runs on six hits and four walks in five innings. The hard-throwing right-hander has lasted just five innings in three of his first four starts, but Detroit won all three games. In fact, with Verlander pitching, the Tigers are on positive runs of 6-1 overall, 44-20 at home, 5-0 versus A.L. Central rivals and 5-1 on Tuesday.
Verlander’s worst start of 2010 came in his only home game to date, and he got rocked for six runs in five innings against the Indians, but his offense bailed him out, rallying for a 9-8 victory. Still, he’s 35-17 with a 3.82 ERA in his career at home. Against the Twins, he’s 5-6 with a 4.28 ERA in 14 starts, including 1-2 with a 5.20 ERA in four contests last year. Detroit has lost seven of Verlander’s last 10 starts against Minnesota.
Minnesota is on “over” runs of 12-5-2 versus A.L. Central foes and 5-2-1 against right-handed starters, but it also carries “under” trends of 13-6-2 in series openers, 4-0 against winning teams, 3-0-2 following an off day, 4-0 with Liriano on the mound and 5-0-1 with Liriano facing divisional rivals. Meanwhile, Detroit is on “over” stretches of 4-0-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 4-0 versus A.L. Central foes, 4-0 on Tuesday, and with Verlander on the bump the “over” is on surges of 7-1-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 5-0-1 versus divisional rivals and 8-0 on Tuesday.
The over was 3-0-1 in the final four Twins-Tigers battles last year, and the over is also 5-1-1 in the last seven clashes in Detroit and 4-0-1 in Verlander’s last five starts against Minnesota.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
DUNKEL INDEX
Miami at Boston
The Celtics look to close out the series and take advantage of Miami's 0-4 ATS record in its last 4 games as an underdog. Boston is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Celtics favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-6)
Game 529-530: Chicago at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 119.664; Cleveland 125.150
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 5 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 12; 199 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+12); Under
Game 531-532: Miami at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 115.228; Boston 125.766
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 10 1/2; 184
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 6; 188
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-6); Under
Game 533-534: San Antonio at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 120.780; Dallas 128.306
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 7 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 5; 193
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-5); Under
Game 535-536: Oklahoma City at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 116.556; LA Lakers 126.375
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 10; 190
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 6; 193 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-6); Under
MLB
Minnesota at Detroit
The Twins look to build on their 8-2 record in Francisco Liriano's last 10 starts with the total set at 7 to 8 1/2 runs. Minnesota is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Twins favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+100)
Game 901-902: LA Dodgers at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Haeger) 14.326; NY Mets (Perez) 15.403
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-175); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-175); Over
Game 903-904: San Diego at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Garland) 16.657; Florida (Sanchez) 15.738
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+115); Over
Game 905-906: Washington at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Hernandez) 14.972; Cubs (Gorzelanny) 16.148
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-165); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-165); N/A
Game 907-908: Cincinnati at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Harang) 14.469; Houston (Norris) 16.107
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-120); Over
Game 909-910: Pittsburgh at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Karstens) 13.840; Milwaukee (Wolf) 13.630
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-250); 9
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+210); Over
Game 911-912: Atlanta at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Lowe) 14.062; St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.242
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-180); Under
Game 913-914: Arizona at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Jackson) 15.362; Colorado (Jimenez) 16.548
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-200); Under
Game 915-916: Philadelphia at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Moyer) 15.489; San Francisco (Wellemeyer) 14.845
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-115); Under
Game 917-918: Boston at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Buchholz) 14.488; Toronto (Marcum) 15.789
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-105); Over
Game 919-920: Minnesota at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Liriano) 16.050; Detroit (Verlander) 15.430
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+100); Under
Game 921-922: NY Yankees at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Hughes) 14.853; Baltimore (Millwood) 15.101
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+150); Over
Game 923-924: Oakland at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Sheets) 16.584; Tampa Bay (Davis) 16.306
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+155); Under
Game 925-926: Chicago White Sox at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 15.100; Texas (Wilson) 14.884
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+115); Under
Game 927-928: Seattle at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Snell) 14.865; Kansas City (Greinke) 16.584
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-180); Under
Game 929-930: Cleveland at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Talbot) 15.745; LA Angels (Saunders) 15.066
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+140); Over
Game 931-932: LA Dodgers at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 14.539; NY Mets (Santana) 16.327
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NHL
Detroit at Phoenix
The Red Wings look to clinch the series and build on their 6-1 record in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite from -110 to -150. Detroit is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wings favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-115)
Game 13-14: Detroit at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.635; Phoenix 12.385
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-115); 5
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-115); Over
Marc Lawrence
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
When the Blue Jays send Shaun Marcum to the mound against Clay Buchholz and the Red Sox in Toronto this evening they will do so knowing Boston has come up a loser in six of Buchholz's eight career starts in April. in the flip side, Marcum is 5-1 with a 3.63 ERA in his career team starts in this series. With Marcum in outstanding KW form, look for more of the same here tonight.
MTi Sports
Heat at Celtics
Play: Over
The Heat are 7-0 OU (+14.4 ppg) on the road after a win in which Dwyane Wade had more turnovers than assists and 6-0 OU (+11.1 ppg) THIS season with at least one day of rest after a win in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Celtics are 8-0 OU (+18.2 ppg) at home after losing the previous matchup in which Kevin Garnett had a double-double and 7-0 OU (+17.9 ppg) at home with at most one day of rest after a game in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. Let?s go with the OVER here.
Frank Jordan
Arizona D-Backs vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Arizona D-Backs
Arizona got Edwin Jackson for these types of games going up against the teams one or two best starters. Jackson has an era under 4 and is 1-1 giving up only 11 runs in four starts, but can't seem to get run support out side of one start when the D-Backs put up 15 against Pittsburgh. Colorado has a stud ace in 4-0 Ubaldo Jimenez who has an era under 1 and has already tossed a no hitter this year and its only April. Jimenez era is 3 at home as he has only had one start there so look for that era to go up as he finally has a dud of a game with Jackson throwing flames past Colorado bats. Play Arizona
Cajun Sports
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Minnesota Twins
The Twins continue their road swing making a stop in the Motor City for a three-game set against the host Detroit Tigers on Tuesday night with the first pitch set for 7:05PM EST. Minnesota will send left-hander Francisco Liriano to the bump with his 2-0 record and ERA of 1.29 on the season. Liriano is coming off another solid performance in his last start as he blanked the Indians in a 6 to 0 home victory. He pitched eight strong innings giving up six hits two walks and striking out six. The left-hander has had little trouble with the Tigers posting a record of 3-1 with an ERA of 3.38 and a WHIP of only 0.971 since 1997. The Twins are 13-6 on the year including a solid 7-3 on the highway and a remarkable 9-1 when playing under the lights. They will face Tigers right-hander Justin Verlander who is 1-1 with an ERA of 6.95 this season. Minnesota has gone 9-5 versus right-handed starters averaging 5.5 runs per game and a batting average of .362 during the 2010 campaign. The Twins bullpen has been strong on the road with an ERA of only 1.45 in 31 innings of work allowing 5 earned runs with an 80 percent save record. The Tigers are 28-43 (-19.7 Units) versus a bullpen that converts on 75 percent or more of their save opportunities the last 3 seasons. The Twins were off on Monday while Detroit was in Texas completing a four-game set against the host Rangers. Minnesota is 28-13 (+14.5 Units) when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons. Detroit is 11-9 on the season including 2-2 versus left-handers and 3-6 when playing at night. The Tigers are averaging 4.2 runs against lefties this season with a batting average of .351. Minnesota is 50-30 (+15.5 Units) versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs per game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Our TPR Index projects a Twins victory by 2.3 runs over the Tigers on Tuesday night in Detroit. The Math Model also favors Liriano and his teammates over Verlander and the cats with a 1.97 run advantage. With strong fundamental, technical and situational support for the underdog we will back the Minnesota Twins here as they grab the first game of this three-game set.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Minnesota Twins 4 Detroit Tigers 2
BEN BURNS
Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Texas Rangers
The White Sox are coming off a sweep of the Mariners and I won with them in all three of those games. Those games were all at Chicago though and this looks like a good spot to go against them.
Yes, Buehrle has been a great pitcher for a lot of years now. However, he's coming off a really poor outing, getting absolutely rocked by the Rays. In that game, he allowed nine hits and six runs in just 4 2/3 innings. Tampa won 12-0. Buehrle also lost his previous start. In six innings, he allowed six runs, (three earned) while giving up six hits and walking four batters.
Wilson gets the call for Texas and he's been outstanding. He's got a 1.83 ERA in three starts, most recently a 3-0 win over the Red Sox. In that game, he allowed just four hits through 6 2/3 shutout innings. Note that Wilson was 3-0 with a terrific 0.67 ERA at home, out of the bullpen, last season.
With the Sox at 2-5 on the road and with the Rangers at 13-6 the last 19 times that they were a host in this series, consider Texas.
Jim Feist
Indians vs. Angels
Play: Under 9
A pair of weak offensive teams face each other in LA. The Angels are 8th in the AL in runs scored, the Indians are dead last. There are two decent starters on the hill. Cleveland lefty Mitch Talbot has a 2.25 ERA and has allowed just 14 hits in 20 innings. LA trots out lefty Joe Saunders, who knows how to pitch and doesn't walk anyone. Saunders likes facing the Indians, with a 2-0 record and a 2.84 ERA against them. Play the Indians/Angels Under the total.
Rob Vinciletti
Cleveland Indians vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels
The Angels fit a nice system here tonight that plays on certain home favorites off a home favored win if they scored 5 or more runs on 10+ hits and left 10 or more men on base, vs an opponent off a road dog loss that scored 2 or less runs and also left 10 or more men on base. The Angels have lefty J.Saunders pitching and he has a 2-0 record vs Cleveland with a 2.84 era. The Indians are 0-9 on the road vs left handers and are hitting just .215 while scoring 2.5 runs vs left handers this season. They are 1-3 on the road with a total between 9 and 9.5 this year. The Angels have won 6 of 9 here at home vs the Tribe and should get this one tonight.
James Patrick Sports
Thunder vs. Lakers
In Western Conference Playoff action Big Game James Patrick's complimentary selection on Fan Appreciation Day this Tuesday is Los Angeles Lakers. Favorites of (-3 1/2 to -9 1/2) points and are winning teams that outscore their opponents by (3+) points per game after a blowout loss of (15) or more are (82-36) ATS and that equates to a solid (69.5 %) in winning tickets.
EZWINNERS
Kansas City Royals -165
Kansas City's ace pitcher Zach Greinke has yet to win his first game of the 2010 season despite allowing two runs or fewer in three of his first four starts but I expect that win to come today against the Mariners. Greinke is 3-0 lifetime against Seattle in six career starts with an ERA of only 2.14 and Ichiro is the only Mariners hitter that has had any success against Greinke in the past. Seattle's starting pitcher Ian Snell has not had a good outing since his first start against Oakland this season. In his last two starts Snell has allowed a combined seven earned runs and has seen his ERA balloon to 5.14 for the season. Snell's batting average against is .298 and right handed batters are hitting .324 against Snell. The Royals should be able to provide Greinke with a few runs of support in this game and that should be all that he needs to pick up his first win of the season. The Mariners have not had a lot of success at Kauffman Stadium as they are only 2-8 in their last ten trips to Kansas City. Play on KC.
JR O'Donnell
PHO / DET Over 5
Our 66% NHL J RUN continues on the Lord Stanley arena Tuesday. The public will look for a low scoring battle as the Coyotes are a terrible 0-4 in game 7 and have only lit the lamp one time in those contests. After pounding the aging Redwing's last game with a 5-2 final, Dave Tippett's Coyotes will need to get out and skate and match last games energy to take down the Redwings. Looking at the Redwings, they have the experience to win this baby and the Wings have taken 7 out of 8 series and have owned the first round. This is a huge gut play as all the trends go to the Under in game 7. We are rolling the other way here tonight as the J HAMMER goes to the Over 5 -125 tonight.
Denver Money
1* Reds / Astros OVER 9
The OVER is 4-1 in the last two meetings between these teams and the Astros are finally starting to hit the ball and score some runs. The Reds have continued to put up runs this season and will need to score plenty today if they plan on winning this game behind Aaron Harang. Harang is 0-3 this season and the Reds are 0-4 in his starts so far this season. During his 4 games on the mound, Harang has 8.31 ERA and continues to keep opponents off the bases. Harang has allowed an average of 8 runs per contest this season. As for Bud Norris for the Astros, he hasn't done much better at keeping teams off the bases this season either. Norris is 1-1 this season with an ERA of 4.26 and average of 4.3 runs allowed per game. Norris has allowed 13 hits in 12 innings pitched and should give up a few hits today against the Reds hitters. Let's go ahead and ride the OVER today as both pitchers should struggle to get back on track today
VEGAS EXPERTS
San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks
We’ll back the Mavericks at home here in a game that Dallas desperately needs to win. San Antonio split the two games here to open the series, and then swept both games at home to take a commanding 3-1 edge. But we think Dallas can get back to their fast-paced offense here at home, and play a game similar to their Game One win – the only game Dallas scored triple digits so far this series. The Mavericks haven’t been able to get to the free throw line with any consistency since Game One, and we look for that to change here with a team that has their backs against the wall and in desperate need of some adjustments.
Play on: Dallas Mavericks