Steve Merril
White Sox vs. Rangers
Play: Under: 9
Two left-handers will face-off in Arlington tonight as the Rangers and White Sox begin a 3-game series on Tuesday. Texas’ C.J. Wilson's conversion from reliever to starter has gone great. Wilson is 1-1 with a 1.83 ERA in three starts, and tonight he'll be facing a White Sox squad that is hitting just .219 against left-handed starters while averaging 4.3 runs per game. Over their past seven games, Chicago is hitting just .231 while averaging only 3.6 runs per game. Wilson has good numbers against Paul Konerko (1-5), Mark Teahen (0-5), A.J. Pierzynski (1-4) and Andruw Jones (0-1). Chicago’s Mark Buerhle will be facing a Rangers team that also dislikes facing lefties. Texas is 1-6 against southpaws going Under in five of those seven ballgames. They are hitting just .208 while scoring 2.9 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. Buerhle has a good history against the Rangers going 11-3 in 14 starts against them with a 2.74 ERA and a WHIP of 1.03 going into tonight’s game. Michael Young (10-48), Nelson Cruz (0-6) and Josh Hamilton (0-3) have poor numbers against Buerhle. Since the White Sox and Rangers have struggled mightily against left-handed starters this season, we expect a low-scoring game tonight.
Matt Fargo
Cleveland Indians @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Cleveland Indians
Mitch Talbot has been solid to start the season as he has tossed two straight quality starts following a rough opener against the Tigers. Over these last two outings he has a 0.60 ERA and 0.73 WHIP covering 15 innings and while it can be argued that he is pitching over his head, he was once an outstanding prospect and could finally be finding his form. At just 26 years old, he is reaching the prime age of his career and the value is still there as his experience, which is limited, adds to it. He squares off against Joe Saunders who is off to a very rough start. He has had one good outing at Toronto but his other three starts have been horrible and all three of those came at home where his ERA sits at 9.22 to go along with a 1.68 WHIP. This is not a surprise as he has a career ERA of 4.63 at Angel Stadium compared to an ERA of 3.86 everywhere else. He has a 6.30 ERA in his last two starts against the Indians including a loss last season at home in his only 2009 start against Cleveland. The Indians fall into a solid underdog situation as well. Play against American League favorites with a moneyline of -125 to -175 with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season. This situation is 45-28 (61.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 3* Cleveland Indians
John Ryan
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles
3* graded play on Baltimore as they host the Yankees set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Baltimore will pull off the upset. This may be somewhat difficult to see happening, but just take yourself back to Monday’s 7* Titan DOG play on KC as they defeated Seattle and Felix Hernandez 3-1 as +154 dogs. This game shapes up much the same way based on the model projections and summary grading. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 29-10 making 22.4 units since 2004. Play on home teams in the month of April after having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games. Yankees have not been solid investments when facing an weak opponent like Baltimore. Yankees are 41-37 (-30.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a terrible team winning <=38% since 1997. Yankees have suddenly lost 3 of the past 4 while Baltimore won last night at Boston and have scored 13 runs in their past two games. Phil Hughes is off to a strong start, but so is Orioles starter Kevin Millwood. In fact, Millwood is pitching better based on a walk to K ratio. He has allowed just 4 BB while striking out 24 batters in 4 starts spanning 26.7 innings of work. Hughes has struck out 16 batters, but also gave 7 free passes in only 12.3 innings pitched. Oriole players are batting a combined 364 against Hughes in their respective careers. Hughes is just 2-2 with a 7.94 ERA and a 1.941 WHIP in 5 starts against the Orioles. We see the Orioles offense adding to their recent run production and Millwood completing at least 7 innings of work tonight. Take the Orioles.
Tom Freese
Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Washington Nationals
Chicago is 7-20 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of less than 1.15 and they are 3-7 their last 10 home games vs. team with a losing record. The Cubs are 0-4 in the last 4 starts made by Tom Gorzelanny. The Cubs are 4-9 off a win. Washington starter Livan Hernandez has allowed 2 runs total in 24 innings of work this year. The Nationals are 5-2 in the last 7 starts made by Hernandez vs. the Cubs. Washington is 6-2 their last 8 games as underdogs of +110 to +150 PLAY ON WASHINGTON +
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Chicago @ Cleveland
PICK: Chicago +12
We had an easy winner on the Boston Bruins yesterday as they put away the series favorite Buffalo Sabres in six games in front of their home town crowd.
Today we switch gears and focus on the Association; for a number of different reasons I believe this line is a bit too high and feel the value in this contest is on the Bulls:
Dating back to the end of the regular season, keep in mind that the Bulls are in fact 5-2 ATS their last seven overall and 8-2 ATS their last ten on the road.
On the other side of the court: In complete contrast to those stellar ATS stats, the Cavaliers are a disturbing 2-5 ATS their last seven overall and 2-6 ATS their last eight at Quicken Loans Arena.
Bottom line: Cleveland is also a poor 16-18 ATS this year after scoring 105 points or more in its previous contest; which means of course, that after a "big game", this team is highly susceptible to a letdown.
The Cav's are cocky right now, and they have every right to be; that said I don't think Chicago is going to bow out of this series quietly; while Cleveland will surely win this game, I believe it's going to be a tighter affair than the oddsmakers are leading us to believe; you may want to take a second look at CHICAGO in this situation.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Heat/Celtics UNDER 188
In the first 2 games in Boston, the Heat only averaged 76.5 points. I expect the Celtics to bring the "D" again in Game 5 with the series shifting back to Bean Town. Boston allowed Dwayne Wade to go off in Game 4, and I can't see it allowing him to do so again. The Celtics are going to make the other guys beat them, and the other guys haven't showed that they can score enough points to do it. The Under should be the result. Miami is 7-0 Under in a road game where the total is between 185 and 189.5 points this season. We'll bet the Under.
Bryan Leonard
Cincinnati at Houston
Aaron Harang has really struggled the past couple of seasons and there is plenty of talk that he could be done. He enters play today with an 8.31 ERA allowing 35 baserunners in 21.2 innings of work. The last five times he faced Houston he went 1-4 with an 8.00 ERA. This Astros lineup has a career .302 batting average against him. The Reds have dropped five straight road games entering this series having being swept at of all places Pittsburgh.
Houston with start Bud Norris who has never faced the Reds, advantage pitcher. In his last seven starts he has a sold 2.52 ERA including facing good hitting lineups like Philadelphia twice and Milwaukee. Roy Oswalt commented that he had the best stuff on the staff.
This is a cheap number for Houston who is playing the far better ball at the moment. They have won 7 of 8 while the Reds have dropped 7 of 10 against the Dodgers, Padres and Pirates.
PLAY HOUSTON
SPORTS WAGERS
FLORIDA –1½ +1.63 over San Diego
The Marlins are averaging six runs per game at home and after a long nine game trip they returned home yesterday and walloped the Padres to the tune of 10-1. San Diego had a huge run but that ended Sunday in Cincinnati and now the Padres have lost two in a row and have batted a combined .161 over those two games. This is a lower tier Padres team that got off to a good start, much like the Pirates, and things are beginning to even out for them. Things will even out too for John Garland. Garland's 2.86 ERA is not supported by the underlying skills. In fact, Garland has more walks (12) than strikeouts (10) in 22 IP. His 87% strand rate here is clearly unsustainable, and the 27% hit rate is absolutely going to rise. Anyone could get people out in San Diego, including Larry King and Garland is no different. However, in two road starts his ERA is 5.40 and again, when you look at his 87% strand rate it indicates he’s been extremely fortunate and as a result of that, his ERA on the road has not suffered. Anibal Sanchez' early-season performance has been nearly as lacking in skills as has Garland's, but with an inflated 34% hit rate, he has been far less fortunate. This guy has fairly decent career numbers that include a BAA of .257, 214 k’s in 300 innings and a 3.92 ERA over 52 starts. Play: Florida –1½ +1.63 (Risking 2 units).
TAMPA BAY/Oakland over 8½
If this game does not go over I will not give out another total for the remainder of the year. Both these pitchers have decent numbers thus far but it’s all been through smoking mirrors and as a result, the disastrous potential for both is extremely high. With more walks (13) than strikeouts (12) and a 5.54 xERA, it is fairly obvious that Ben Sheets will not be able to sustain success with the current skills. He has benefited from an 83% strand rate and managed to limit the HR (0.4 HR/9), though that ability will be tested vs. the AL's top-ranked offensive squad. Sheets has benefited from three starts in Oakland but Tropicana Field presents a lot more trouble. In Sheet’s only road start in Anaheim, he allowed 10 hits in six frames but once again was fortunate to strand so many runners. Sheets has been walking a very thin line thus far and it’s likely to implode on him at any time. Similarly to Sheets, Davis has managed to avoid disaster, despite a noticeable lack of skills to this point. The 20% hit rate and 85% strand rate are unsustainable and as a result, so is his 2.65 ERA. Davis’ main deficiency is control and what we have here is not one, but two pitchers that are constantly behind in the count and issuing way too many walks to have continued success. Both have been fortunate and even if things go swimmingly here, chances are it still goes over this total. If things don’t go well, this one could go over very early. Play: Tampa/Oakland over 8½ -1.07 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
Arizona +1.83 over COLORADO
Ubaldo Jiminez has simply been outstanding and after throwing a no-hitter two starts ago he came right back and threw another gem against the Nats. He’s now 4-0 with an ERA of 0.95 and it’s just impossible to continue at this rate. Roy Halliday was also 4-0 going into San Fran last night and lost after giving up 10 hits and five runs. The point is that the best pitchers in the game will not win 20 games in 36-40 starts and Jiminez is not immune. The cavernous gap between his 3.65 career ERA and 0.95 ERA this year should begin to narrow, with the ERA trending upward. In fact, Jiminez has hit fairly hard in two of his four starts but benefitted greatly from a 91% strand rate, which is also not sustainable. Edwin Jackson is a quality pitcher that has pitched three games at home thus far and Chase Field is one of the most difficult venues on pitchers in the business. His groundball/fly-ball ratio is one of the best in the league and so is his control. A guy like Jackson should not be taking back a tag like this at any time, as he keeps getting better but does not get the recognition he deserves and the result is an inflated line. Play: Arizona +1.83 (Risking 2 units).
PHOENIX +1.06 over Detroit
Since we have the Red Wings to win this series at +1.11 and we have them to win the Cup at odds of 9-1, we’re going to play the Coyotes here. This game and series has been so close and this game is too much of a toss-up to gamble on. Should the Red Wings win, we’ll have them both in the series and the Cup and that’s not a bad situation at all, as they’ll play the Sharkies in round two. So, we’ll hope for the Red Wings but a loss here would in no way be surprising to anyone and therefore we’ll play it safe. Play: Phoenix +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
Rocketman
Philadelphia @ San Francisco
Play: Philadelphia -125
Philadelphia is 31-15 last 3 years on the road when the money line is -100 to -125. Philadelphia is scoring 5.5 runs per game overall this year, 5.4 runs per game on the road and 5.9 runs per game against right handed starters this season. Philadelphia bullpen has a 3.48 ERA on the road this year. Moyer is 2-0 on the road this year. Wellmeyer is 0-3 with an 8.16 ERA overall this season. Wellmeyer is 0-2 with a 7.94 ERA overall vs Philadelphia since 1997. Phillies are 6-0 in Moyers last 6 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Phillies are 8-1 in Moyers last 9 starts as a road favorite. Phillies are 5-1 in Moyers last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Phillies are 14-3 in Moyers last 17 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Phillies are 4-1 in Moyers last 5 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a win. We'll recommend a small play on Philadelphia tonight!
Craig Trapp
Chicago Bulls vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Chicago Bulls +12
The first two games CLE won by an average of 11 at home so this number looks like its about right. The scores look like blowouts for the three CLE wins but CHI was in all three of those games for most of the game and just did not close it out. Look for Rose and company to learn from those games that slipped away as they play this one all the way down to the end. Double digit win in a closeout game is unlikely and we will gladly take the points.
David Malinsky
TEXAS First Half over CHICAGO WHITE SOX
We are allowed to like C. J. Wilson a lot right now. We also see some chinks in the armor for Mark Buehrle. And by narrowing our focus to the early stages of this game, we do not have to worry about the bullpen advantages that the visitors have for the late innings.
Wilson’s 1.37 over three starts looks good enough on the surface – only 16 hits allowed in 19.2 innings, and more than twice as many K’s as W’s. But let’s take it a step further. Transitioning to a starting role would not be easy under most circumstances, with Wilson not having started since 2005, but how about an early cycle that had Game #2 in the Bronx, and #3 in Fenway Park? Yet despite those tough settings he has still produced outstanding numbers. Now he gets his second start from the home mound, and after shutting the Blue Jays out over seven innings in his earlier appearance here, with more K’s than base-runners allowed, his confidence level will be high. The White Sox do not bring much experience against him (no one has more than six career at-bats), and we can confidently call for a couple of good early passes through a struggling lineup.
Meanwhile Buehrle looks vulnerable. Over his last two starts he has been tagged for nine runs (six earned) on 15 hits over 10.2 frames, and in each of those games he averaged 18.2 PPI (Pitches Per Inning). That latter count is significant for him. He did not have back-to-back games in all of 2009 in which he topped 18.0, and there was only one such sequence in 2008, and only one again in 2007. For a guy that does not have great velocity he absolutely must have his command to be successful. The prelude to those two sloppy outings came when Ozzie Guillen had him work eight full innings and throw 113 pitches vs. Cleveland in start #2, and he may not have been ready for that workload. He only topped 110 pitches three times in all of 2009, with all three of those games from the middle of June on, and only once in the last two seasons in the months of April or may did he top 110. Having added Vladimir Guerrero the Rangers are much better able to match up to this class of left-hander, and note that Guerrero has four home runs in 25 career at-bats vs. Buehrle, hitting .320 and also drawing six walks, for an on-base of .452.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Minnesota Twins +108
Bottom Line: Verlander is coming off a terrific season, but he is yet to find last year's form as he enters with an ERA approaching 7.00. Meanwhile, the Twins are 3-0 in Liriano's starts this season, during which he has posted a sparkling 1.29 ERA. Plus, the Tigers are just 3-7 in Verlander's last 10 starts vs. the Twins while Liriano is 3-1 lifetime when starting against Detroit with an ERA of 3.38 and a WHIP of 0.971. The Twins are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss and 5-0 in Liriano's last 5 starts with 5 days of rest. Take the Twins at a nice price tonight.
Stan Lisowski
HOUSTON
The Reds have not fared well in Harang’s outings this year as they wear the goose-egg in his 4 starts. His ERA on the season is a whopping 8.31. Cincinnati’s staff has allowed an average of over 6 runs per game.
Derek Mancini
Chicago at CLEVELAND (-12)
4-0 Free Play run, including the Tigers (+125) and the Suns last night! Perfect 8-0 with complimentary NBA Playoff releases, with my ninth straight on deck Tuesday!
After getting slapped in the mouth in Game 3, the Cavaliers responded with a thorough ass-kicking of the Bulls Sunday. While the disparty in talent may not be as wide as some people think, these two teams are on different levels from a defensive standpoint - and that's the reason I'm telling you to lay the points with Cleveland in Game 5.
Chicago won Game 3 because the Cavaliers got lazy on defense (allowing Hinrich to score 27 points was a disgrace). But we saw what happened the very next game, limiting the Bulls to 37% shooting on their homecourt! Now with the series shifting to the Q, the Bulls troubles are only magnified. Chicago has been nothing but average away from the United Center on defense (101 ppg, 45% shooting). We know Cleveland will come to play tonight, and that includes their impressive defense at home (94 ppg, 43% shooting).
The emergence of Antawn Jamison in Game 4 is also a good sign, as he takes the pressure off of James and Williams, who've been carrying this offense. Not seeing much from either bench, which only makes Jamison that much more important tonight. Cavaliers showed what they were capable of in Game 1 of this series, allowing Rose to score, but limiting role players like Deng and Noah. Same story, different day - lay the points with Cleveland in Game 5.
2♦ CLEVELAND
Karl Garrett
Chicago at CLEVELAND (-12)
Phoenix Suns for free last night, as the G-Man has now hit 4 in a row with my comp plays. 18-8 overall the last 26 days for free.
NBA tonight, and stick a fork in Chicago as they are done!
Any chance the Bulls had in extending this series came on Sunday when they were blown out of the water at home in a 121-98 laugher by the Cavaliers.
Cleveland allowed Chicago to win one game in the Windy City, but tonight is close-out time, as the Cavaliers know full well that Orlando has already advanced, and Boston is likely to advance tonight at home against Miami.
This is a rather large impost, but I feel confident that after watching Sunday's demolition of the Bulls in Chicago, Cleveland will come out at home tonight and put the exclamation point on this series elimination game.
Chicago's will has been broken, and tonight Cleveland will roll to the 20-point win and cover over the Bulls.
G-Man expecting a big time blowout tonight in Rock City.
Lay it with the Cavs!
4♦ CLEVELAND