Stephen Nover
Miami at BOSTON (-6)
The Boston Celtics return home with a commanding 3-1 lead on Miami in their first-round playoff series.
The Celtics held Miami to 76 and 77 points, respectively, during the first two series games played in Boston.
Scoring on the road has been a problem for Miami against good teams. The Heat averaged 86.3 points in its last 10 away contests versus playoff opponents. The under is 12-5-2 in Miami's last 19 road games.
This over/under line is the highest total of the series.
The Celtics are a top-five defensive team. They are going to lock up on Dwayne Wade and the Heat don't have enough other scoring options to counter.
The Celtics need to get ready for the next round. That means sharpening their already considerable defensive skills.
2♦ HEAT/CELTICS UNDER
Chris Jordan
San Antonio (+200) at DALLAS
Last week I gave you the Mavericks as a series play as a complimentary selection; tonight I have no choice but to release the Spurs on the Moneyline, hedging out with a value play in the event San Antonio ends this thing tonight.
It wouldn't come as any surprise, as the Spurs look like the young exuberant team ready to make a run at the Lakers in the Western Conference, while the Mavericks have been the team lost amid confusion, not knowing which way to turn.
I've noticed more and more how the resilient Spurs continue to fall back on their experience, using their veterans to frustrate the always complicated Mavs, a team that has been to the NBA Finals just once, but lost in six games to the Heat in 2006. And quite frankly, it's become apparent to me over the first four games, this team still lacks that killer instinct needed this time of the year.
But not the Spurs.
Defensively, they've done a tremendous job against the explosive Mavericks, who ranked 11th in the league by averaging 102 points per game, but rank 14th out of 16 in the playoffs with just 91.75 ppg.
Take Dirk Nowitzki out of the equation and the Spurs have held the rest of the Mavs to a mere 39-percent shooting.
And that won't bode well if San Antonio goes on another one of its extended runs that Dallas can't stave off quickly enough, and ends up in another deep hole.
Not one person (that I thought might have last week) has stepped up to accompany Nowtizki in his charge for the Mavericks, and that's a shame, given how well they played down the stretch.
I'd love to see a seven-game series, and this one end up back in Big D for Game 7; but tonight I am hedging out and feel pretty good with a 2-to-1 underdog that is playing much better.
3♦ SPURS MONEYLINE
Michael Cannon
San Antonio (+5) at DALLAS
I’m now 37-26 with my last 63 free plays.
Take the points with the Spurs tonight on the road over the Mavericks.
I like Dallas for the win here, but I see this as a two or three-point game.
San Antonio has been playing its best basketball of the season in this series so I don’t see Dallas getting past this number here. The Mavs have struggled to find their game offensively since the Spurs made some defensive adjustments after Game 1.
Dallas didn’t have a single player score more than 17 points in Game 4 and was held to 41.6 percent shooting from the field.
The Spurs are 30-13 SU on the road this year, while Dallas has played much better on the road versus at home.
The Mavs are just 12-30-1 ATS at home this year.
Take the points with the Spurs as they stay within the number.
3♦ SAN ANTONIO
Bobby Maxwell
Oklahoma City (+6) at L.A. LAKERS
I'm 85-67-3 with my FREE plays and handing you a winner tonight as I grab the points with Oklahoma City as the Thunder are in Los Angeles to take on the Lakers in Game 5.
The Lakers are getting much more than they bargained for in this series and while it might be surprising them, it’s not surprising me as I watched this Thunder squad mature and develop this season. The play of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant isn’t surprising as these youngsters are more mature beyond their years and when they get Jeff Green or James Harden to come along for the ride, it makes things so much easier.
Oklahoma City went home after fighting but losing two games in Los Angeles and the Thunder just crushed the Lakers twice. They scored a 101-96 home win in Game 3 on Thursday and cashed as a 3 ½-point home favorite, then they destroyed the Lakers on Saturday 110-89 as a one-point home favorite. They outrebounded the Lakers, outworked them, outshot them and beat them up.
The main problem is Los Angeles has nobody who can contain Westbrook, as he’s too big and strong for Derek Fisher and he’s too big for Jordan Farmar and too talented for Shannon Brown. When he gets free, he makes his whole team better and even gets his own shot going.
Oklahoma City has won three of the last five meetings, cashed in five of the last six clashes and cashed in two of the last three played in Los Angeles. The Thunder are also on positive ATS runs of 10-2 after getting two days off, 19-7 on the road against teams with winning home records and 21-9 against winning teams.
The Lakers are on ATS slides of 1-6 overall, 1-4 as a home favorite, 1-4 after a non-cover and 1-6 against winning teams. Now, they might win tonight, Kobe Bryant might go off for 45 points and 10 assists, but there’s no reason to believe that after he was held for 12 on Saturday.
Grab the points and play Oklahoma City tonight. They were right there in Game 1 and had many chances to steal Game 2. They’ll be there at the end of this one so grab the points.
4♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Derek Mancini
San Diego (+115) at FLORIDA
4-0 Free Play run, including the Tigers (+125) and the Suns last night! More plus money up for grabs Tuesday, as the Padres encounter a solid bounce back spot tonight in South Florida.
Didn't like the pitching match up yesterday for San Diego, who suffered their worst defeat of the season - a 10-1 blowout. But tonight is a different story, as the match ups are far more favorable with Garland facing off against Sanchez.
Garland's numbers on the road aren't great, but his recent numbers against the Marlins are, going 2-0 against Florida with Arizona last season, allowing just 2 earned over 14 innings! He looks to be zeroed in after getting 14 groundball outs against the Giants in his last start, and if he's keeping his pitches he can be very effective against the Marlins.
Sanchez is more of a wildcard, but I'm not buying into his last start. So what if he limited the Astros to 1 run over 6 2/3? He allowed 9 hits against a inferior offense, and got rocked in his two previous starts, surrendering 9 runs over 12 innings to the Dodgers and Phillies. Throw in a Marlins bullpen that's struggling (5.96 ERA over their L22 2/3 innings) and San Diego is primed for the bounce back tonight. It's San Diego (Garland) over Florida (Sanchez) Tuesday.
3♦ SAN DIEGO
Michael Cannon
Washington (+140) at CHICAGO CUBS
I’m now 37-26 with my last 63 free plays.
Take the Nationals plus the big return over the Cubs.
Washington will start Livan Hernandez and he’s enjoying a rebirth this season. The right-hander is 2-1 with a 0.75 ERA this year. Hernandez is 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA in his last six starts against the Cubs and 3-2 with a 1.99 ERA in his last six at Wrigley Field.
The Cubs will counter with Tom Gorzelanny, who has received one total run of support over his three starts. The left-hander was 1-1 with an 11.25 ERA in four relief appearances against the Nats last year.
Take the Nationals as they grab the road win.
3♦ WASHINGTON
Stephen Nover
Cincinnati at HOUSTON (-120)
After a slow start, the Houston Astros are playing as well as any team winning eight of their last 10.
The Astros host Cincinnati in this matchup and get the good fortunate of facing Aaron Harang.
Harang was once a good pitcher, but he's never recovered from a marathon 18-inning game against San Diego two years ago. After throwing 103 pitches to start that series, he was called into relief during the 18-inning game and ended up throwing 63 more pitches in four innings.
Since that time, Harang is 10-28 with an ERA above 5.00. He's surrendered 55 home runs in 290 1/3 innings. He has won once in his last 20 starts. His ERA during his past two starts is 13.03. He threw a season-high 116 pitches in his last start, yielding six earned runs and 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings during a 14-6 loss to the Dodgers this past Wednesday.
"Obviously, it's bad luck," Harang was quoted as saying. "I'm in a bad spell right now."
Harang certainly is in a bad spell, but it's not bad luck. He's a shot pitcher. Cincinnati is 7-20 in Harang's past 20 road starts.
The Astros can take advantage now that five-time All-Star Lance Berkman is back in the lineup. Berkman is a career .327 hitter versus the Reds. Cincinnati has a team ERA of 6.02, the second-highest in baseball.
Houston has won five of its last six home contests. The Astros are 5-2 in Bud Norris' last seven starts.
1♦ ASTROS
Chris Jordan
Cincinnati at HOUSTON (-120)
Used to be a time you couldn't pay me to go against Cincinnati starter Aaron Harang. After the number of times he disappointed me last season, and the fact he just doesn't illustrate the tag "best junkballer" like he used to, I can't count on him much any longer.
Thus, I have no problem laying the juice with the Astros, who have won eight of 10 after losing its first eight.
Houston has gone from being the Majors’ last winless team to one of its hottest. After averaging 1.7 runs per game during that eight-game skid, the Astros are posting 4.6 runs in their last 10.
Now they get to face a Reds team that has a 6.02 ERA and has allowed at least 10 runs twice in its last five games.
Harang, who is 12-34 with a 4.74 ERA since the start of 2008, is 9-9 with a rather bulky 4.79 ERA in 22 starts against Houston.
I'm not going to list either pitcher tonight, since I think the Astros are a steal at this price anyway; lay the juice tonight.
2♦ ASTROS
Jeff Benton
Hit a bit of a speed bump with the free plays lately, but I’m still on runs of 63-36-2, 50-29-2 and 24-14 with plays that I’m giving away! I’ll get back on track Tuesday by taking the Rays on the run-line at home against Oakland.
The A’s are in a tough travel spot here, making their first East Coast road trip of the season. And they’re running up against a buzzsaw in Tampa Bay, which owns baseball’s best record at 14-5. Not only that, but 11 of the Rays’ last 12 wins have been by multiple runs.
Rookie right-hander Wade Davis (Tampa’s top pitching prospect) gets the nod tonight, and Davis has started two of those multi-run victories, beating the Red Sox 3-1 and the White Sox 12-0 while allowing a total of one run on four hits and seven walks in 11 innings. That’s 11 baserunners in 11 innings, which is phenomenal – especially when compared to Oakland starter Ben Sheets, who is 1-1 with a 2.74 ERA but has been playing with fire, allowing 23 hits and 13 walks (40 baserunners) in 23 innings. In fact, Sheets has walked more batters than he’s struck out (12) – NOT good, especially when facing a patient and potent lineup like the Rays.
With the exception of a three-game series against the Yankees (and they lost two of three at home) and three-game series at the Angels (when the Halos were really scuffling to start the season), the A’s have fattened up on a weak schedule. Their other 14 games have come against the Mariners (7 games), Orioles (4 games) and Indians (3 games). Also, 14 of their first 20 contests were played in Oakland (only road trips were to Anaheim and Seattle).
Finally, this says it all: The A’s have lost 11 of their last 15 games as an underdog, nine of 11 against teams with a winning record and 40 of 55 after a day off. The Rays (who are 54-14 in their 68 games as a big favorite of -150 to -200) roll big again.
4♦ TAMPA BAY RAYS -1.5
Scott Delaney
Atlanta at St. Louis
Looking for my sixth total winner out of seven with this game today.
That's right, not only do I deliver winners monthly as the No. 1 handicapper at this site, but I am also on a 16-5 run with MLB freebies!!!
Wednesday was the Under in the Phillies/Braves game.
Thursday it was the Under in the Rockies/Nationals game.
Friday I scored with the Under in the Cardinals/Giants game.
Saturday the fourth straight Under with the Yankees and Halos staying low.
I lost the Over Sunday with the Dodgers/Nationals game, but rebounded nicely on Monday, nailing the Under with the Phillies/Giants game.
Tonight I am playing the Over Braves/Cardinals.
One might look at this game and see Atlanta's Derek Lowe and St. Louis' Chris Carpenter and think, pitching showdown = Under.
But when you look at the numbers, you're going to find the Cardinals have gone over in three of Carpenter's four starts, while he has an uncharacteristically high 3.60 ERA for an ace. And in the teams' last meeting in 2009, on Sept. 13, Carpenter took the loss after giving up seven earned runs in six innings of work.
Meanwhile, the Braves are 3-0 Over in Lowe's starts, while he has a sky-high 5.24 ERA. And though Lowe came into the season wearing the ace's collar, his productivity has worsened. He's gone from giving up one earned run on April 10, three earned on April 16, to four earned in his last outing, at home against the Phils on April 22 which resulted in a loss.
He too has struggled against his foe tonight, as he's 0-2 in his last two starts versus the Redbirds, having given up 10 earned runs over 10 innings against them.
Play this one high.
3♦ Braves/Cardinals OVER