Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday April, 3

Marc Lawrence

Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat
Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers

Once again the public will be salivating to back the Heat off their 19-point drubbing at Boston Sunday afternoon, but instead we'll swallow hard and back the Sixers tonight. A quick check of our database finds Miami 3-16 ATS as a host in this series when playing off a loss, including 0-9 ATS when Miami owns a win percentage of .530 or better on the season. Meanwhile, Philly checks in at 16-6 SU and 14-8 ATS vs opponents off loss 5 or more points this season. With the Sixers seeking same season triple revenge form a trio of losses suffered this campaign in this series, we suggest you hold your nose and grab the points here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Philadelphia.

Vegas Experts

Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings
Play: Sacramento Kings

Although in the second night of back to backs, we like the Kings to cash in as a small home dog Tuesday night at home against division rival Phoenix. This is an undervalued team in the marketplace right now as they are 5-1 ATS as a home dog of three points or less this season. Phoenix is not a very good road team as they've lost 12 of 16 this season to conference opponents, including five of the last six, allowing 100+ points in each of those five losses. Take the points.

Rocketman

Charlotte @ Toronto
Play: Charlotte +9.5

I know, I know, we're backing the worst team in the NBA here tonight as your free play. Charlotte is coming off a tough loss in Detroit a few nights ago 110-107. Charlotte is 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS overall vs Toronto over the past 3 years. Toronto is allowing 104.4 points per game over their past five games overall. These two teams have already met twice this year with Charlotte surprisingly winning both games. The first game was a 98-91 win in Toronto and the next game Charlotte won 107-103 at home. Charlotte is 7-0 ATS last 7 meetings in Toronto and 13-3 ATS last 16 meetings overall in this series. We'll recommend a small play on Charlotte tonight!

Matt Fargo

San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars
Play: Dallas Stars +101

This is the second game of a home-and-home between San Jose and Dallas and the Stars are in need of a win following a shutout loss to the Sharks on Saturday. Both teams are in the midst of a late season playoff push as San Jose has 90 points and it sitting in eighth place in the Western Conference. The Stars are right behind the Sharks with 89 points so obviously this game is going to have a lot of implications in the conference. Dallas is just 3-5 in its last eight games so now is the time. The Sharks have been great at home with a 25-12-3 record but they are just 15-17-7 on the road and the recent highway play has been a real struggle with an atrocious 3-11-3 record over their last 17 roadies. The Sharks will likely need four points in the final three games to feel secure about making the playoffs but with two games on the road against teams fighting for those playoff spots, it will be extremely tough. San Jose then closes at home against Los Angeles, its second straight game against the Kings to close out. San Jose's offense has been nearly non-existent on the road lately as in its last nine games away from home, it has tallied only 16 goals so getting only one win in those games is no surprise. As a matter of fact, the Sharks have not had a lead in a road games since March 13th, a span of over 214 consecutive minutes of trailing. The pressure is definitely on. "I've never been in the position we're in when it was down to the wire," Dan Boyle said. "Thirteen years now, this is a first for me." Dallas knows it is likely now or never as loss knocks the Stars three points behind San Jose. "This game either puts us in the driver's seat or takes us out of it, so it's pretty big,'' Dallas head coach Glen Gulutzan said Monday. "We're still in a position where we have everything in our control. You've got to win games to get in and it's nice to know that if we do, we control our own destiny." The good news is Dallas is 11-2 in its last 13 games following a loss of three goals or more.

Bryan Power

Golden State @ Memphis
PICK: Golden State +8

Note that in addition to Monday's 4-0 SWEEP, I also cashed a free play here last night w/ the Tampa Bay Lightning! For Tuesday, let's look at NBA, specifically the Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies game. This looks like a fantastic spot to step in and go against the Grizzlies. They are off a huge outright win last night, going to Oklahoma City and upsetting the Thunder 94-88 as 7.5-point underdogs. Now the proverbial "shoe is on the other foot" as tonight they are laying points, a role that has not treated them kindly in recent weeks. They are 1-6 ATS L7 as chalk and not only did they fail to cover six times, but they also lost all of those games outright! Golden State enters Tuesday off five straight losses and is a desperate team, grabbing a generous number here. Take the points.

Sean Murphy

Blue Jackets @ Coyotes
PICK: Under 5.5

The playoffs have already arrived for the Coyotes. They continue to battle for the eighth and final spot in the Western Conference playoff picture, and have certainly stepped up their game, notching back-to-back shutout wins over the Sharks and Ducks.

It's not as if Phoenix is taking a step up in class on Tuesday. Yes, the Blue Jackets have been playing much better lately, but they're still the worst team in the league. This is a clear letdown spot following three consecutive wins over playoff-bound opponents, the Red Wings, Panthers, and Blues.

Of course, there's not much value with the 'Yotes tonight, as they lay a price north of -200. Instead we'll elect to play the 'under' in this spot.

Columbus' recent turnaround has been keyed by some solid play between the pipes. Allen York has stepped in and played exceptionally well since Steve Mason went down with a head injury in practice last week. York has allowed only five goals on 98 shots in posting three straight victories.

Mike Smith has been even better for the 'Yotes. He's recorded back-to-back shutouts, turning aside a whopping 82 shots in the process. It's been a terrific year for Smith, albeit under the radar, as he's posted a 2.29 goals against average and .927 save percentage.

We've seen a pair of high-scoring games between these two teams this season, but in their most recent meeting, things settled down considerably as the Blue Jackets skated away with a 3-2 home win. Expect more of the same on Tuesday night.

Jimmy Boyd

Sacramento Kings +2½

Sacramento is showing value in the home dog role tonight. Having lost the season's first two meeting with Phoenix, we can expect the Kings to be very focused and hungry.

Revenge has been a solid angle to play with the Kings as they are 37-22 ATS when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. They have also been a strong underdog wager at 17-7 ATS in their last 24 when catching points. It is also worth noting that they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less.

The Suns are just 10-15 in all road games this season, including 4-12 in away contests versus West foes. They are 1-5 in their last 6 road games versus conference opponents with those 5 losses coming by an average of 12.6 points. We'll take the Kings.

Jim Feist

Phoenix Suns vs Sacramento Kings
Pick: Phoenix Suns

A tough spot for the home team with Sacramento playing last night while uptempo Phoenix and Steve Nash are rested. The Suns are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing record. Sacramento is poor defensively, 30th in the NBA in points allowed (104 ppg) and the Kings are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. the NBA Pacific. Look for the Suns to run right at the tired home team and pull away late. Play the Suns!

Dave Cokin

Phoenix Suns vs Sacramento Kings
Pick: Phoenix Suns

The Suns are not out of the playoff mix yet, and they have a great chance to garner a vital road win here. The Kings won on Monday but the fresher legs should be owned by Phoenix here. I'll go with the Suns.

SPORTS WAGERS

INDIANA -5½ over New York

These two have played twice this season with the Knicks winning both times by double digits. Now the Knicks arrive here slightly overvalued because of their recent success but they also arrive without the services of Jeremy Lin, Amar'e Stoudemire and possibly Tyson Chandler. Landry Fields, Iman Shumpert and even Baron Davis, to a lesser extent, are all nice role players coming off the bench but as guys you have to rely on against a quality club like Indiana seeking some redemption, they’re going to have be near flawless and that’s not a reasonable expectation. The Pacers have established themselves as rising powers in the East. All five starters are capable of putting up double digits. Defensively, they are one of the best in the league. In their last important home game, the Pacers knocked off the Heat by 15. They’ve won 16 of 23 home games while the Knicks have won 9 of 25 road games. The Pacers have something to prove here after losing to this club twice and chances are they’ll answer the bell with a strong statement game. Play: Indiana -5½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

SACRAMENTO +125 over Phoenix

We have little interest in spotting road points with a Suns team that is as erratic as they are talented. Phoenix continually appears solid and focused one night and out of sorts the next. After a strong run that vaulted them into playoff contention, the Suns have gone just 4-5 over their past nine. They losses have come against quality teams (Miami, Orlando, San Antonio and the Clippers) but they’ve also defeated weak one’s (Detroit, Cleveland and New Orleans). As a pooch taking back some points, Phoenix is appealing at times but as road chalk against an above .500 at home team, they’re not. Sacramento is 14-12 at Arco. They have recent home victories over Memphis, Boston and Minnesota (twice). They’re loaded with offensive talent and that bodes well here against a Suns team that is likely to accompany them in their run and gun style. That’s when the Kings are at their best and in a game that could easily go either way and probably favors the host, we’ll take the tag offered and play the value. Play: Sacramento +125 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

Carolina +145 over OTTAWA

The angle here is to wager against any team that is coming off a playoff clinching victory and in this case, it’s the Senators. Several teams have battled for weeks in their attempt to make the post-season. There has to be a sense of relief, especially for a team like Ottawa, who was predicted by many so-called experts to finish last. The result is a deep breath and we’ve seen others take a hit while doing so. The Blackhawks lost at home to Minnesota on Sunday, following their clinching win against Nashville. The Hurricanes, while not qualifying for the playoffs, are still competing, as evidenced by their 5-4 record over their past nine. Included in that set are victories over Florida and St. Louis, not to mention a 5-4 loss in Detroit. Cam Ward is still one of the best goaltenders in the business and the Senators don’t figure to be giving their all. Ottawa is locked up in seventh place with very little chance of falling to eighth or passing New Jersey in sixth. Rest up and get ready for the playoffs is their current agenda and that allows us to step in confidently on this very live dog. Play: Carolina +145 (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. Islanders +192 over NEW JERSEY

Our second team coming off a playoff clinching victory is the Devils. This is a team that failed to make the playoffs a year ago, which ended a 13-year streak of post-season activity. The Devils vowed they would rebound and they did. New Jersey is in sixth place, four points ahead of Ottawa and five points behind Philly and they wouldn’t want it any other way. The sixth place team plays the winner of the Southeast Division, who finishes with the #3 seed by way of winning its division. That sets up beautifully for the Devils, as they are more than likely to face Florida in round one and that’s a whole lot better than facing Ottawa, Pittsburgh or Philadelphia. Besides, the Islanders are so live taking back a tag like this. Certainly, they are the most talented club not going to the playoffs and they’re capable of beating anyone, as they just showed in recent back-to-back wins over the Penguins. The Devils are going with backup goaltender Johan Hedberg here and chances are they won’t be going at full speed. Play: N.Y. Islanders +192 (Risking 2 units).

FLORIDA -½ +107 over WINNIPEG

One could argue that the season was a big success for the city of Winnipeg even before it began because they got its team back. To the surprise of many, it was only two weeks ago that they were in fairly good shape to make the post-season. However, things went sour and despite their best efforts, they will now watch this year’s battle for the Stanley Cup after they were officially eliminated on Saturday with a loss in Tampa. Now that it’s ‘over’, it’s hard to imagine them competing the way they were with such disappointment. The Jets sent a few banged up players back home and it appears as though others with nagging injuries will be scratched. Dustin Byfuglien is among them. For the Panthers, this is a great opportunity to lock up the division and an automatic playoff berth. They’re three points up on Washington with the Caps having just two games remaining. Florida has lost six of its last seven games but that’s deceiving, as they’ve picked up points in five of those, only to lose four of them in extra time. The building should be electric tonight and with a chance to end the NHL’s longest active playoff drought, expect an amped up Panthers squad to do just that against this dejected and banged up intruder. Play: Florida -½ +107 (Risking 2 units).

Rob Vinciletti

Orlando Magic vs. Detroit Pistons
Play: Detroit Pistons +4.5

The Pistons fit 2 nice system here tonight. We want to play on home dogs with rest that won by 4 or less points as a home favorite at -5 or more, vs an opponent off a loss. Long term these home dogs have covered 16 of the last 19 times. Detroit has won the last 2 in the series and catches an Orlando team that is slumping and has lost 3 straight. The Magic certainly play down to the competition as they are 4-13 to the spread vs offensively challenged teams who score 91 or less per game. The Pistons have covered 3 of 4 with 2 days rest and 30 of the past 45 vs South East Division teams. Take the Points in this one.

Jack Jones

Miami Heat -8

The Miami Heat are going to be highly motivated following one of their worst losses of the season. Miami was just beaten 72-91 at Boston on Sunday, so they certainly won't be taking the Philadelphia 76ers lightly tonight. I look for one of their strongest performances of the season.

The Heat will also be hungry following the news that the Chicago Bulls have lost two straight. Those two losses have the Heat sitting just three games behind Chicago for the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Considering Miami is 21-2 at home this season while outscoring opponents by 12.4 points/game, they know how important getting that No. 1 seed would be.

Philly simply does not match up well with Miami at all. That has been evident in recent meetings. Miami has won 14 of their last 15 meetings with Philadelphia, with nine of those wins coming by 8 points or more. The Heat have won 10 straight home meetings with the 76ers, winning seven of those by 8 points or more.

This play falls into a system that is 40-11 (78.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against an average offensive team (92-98 PPG), after scoring 85 points or less. The 76ers are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Bet Miami Tuesday.

Dave Price

Miami Heat -8

Philadelphia catches the Heat at a bad time as they will be very motivated following Sunday's 19-point loss to Boston. The Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The 76ers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Sixers have lost 4 of their last 5 road games with those 4 losses coming by 16.0 points on average. We'll bet the Heat.