Jeff Alexander
Charlotte Bobcats +9
The Raptors are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 home games in the 2nd half of the season versus horrible teams that are outscored by their opponents by 9 points or more game. They have won these games, but only by an average of 3.6 points. The Bobcats have given Toronto all kinds of problems. They've won 6 straight in the series. They are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings and 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Toronto. Bet the Bobcats.
Steve Janus
Charlotte Bobcats +9
Charlotte has owned the Raptors this season. They won at Toronto 98-91 and followed that up with a 107-103 win at home. As bad as this season has been for the Bobcats, a chance to remain undefeated against another team is something they can use as motivation. Either way, the Raptors should not be favored by 9-points! Oddsmakers can basically throw just about any line they want up and know that few people will risk their money on the Bobcats.
I'm not saying you should be backing the Bobcats in every game down the stretch, but if you pick your spots you can really take advantage of some favorable lines!
Toronto is 0-10 ATS in home games versus horrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
OTTAWA -145 over Carolina: The Sens recently wrapped up a playoff spot, but I do not expect them to take it easy tonight. Heading into the playoffs with momentum is a big deal, especially when you are probably slated to take on the defending champs in the 1st round. Ottawa comes in on winners of 4 in a row, while outscoring those opponents by a 23-12 count. They have scored 23 goal in their last 4 games and will be facing a Carolina team that has allowed 4 or more goals in 4 of their last 5 games. Carolina is just 1-7 in their last 8 trips here. while the favorite is 11-2 the last 13 meetings. I look for the Sens to continue to build momentum for the post season with a solid win here.
Buffalo/ Toronto Under 5.5: The easiest way to look in this game would be the Over, as 6 of Toronto's last 7 games have put 7 or more goals on the board, while Buffalo's last 3 have each hit 6 goals or more, but I like the Under in this one. The Sabres have playoff hopes and the door has been left open for them with the Caps loss last night, so I look for them to be a focused bunch here and that will start at the defensive end. Buffalo lost both games over the weekend to Pitt and Toronto and they allowed 9 total goals in the 2 games, but prior to the weekend they had won 5 in a row and had allowed just 6 goals in the 5 games. Toronto had put up 4 goals on Saturday vs Buffalo, but Prior to that they had scored just 10 goals in their previous 6 games. Buffalo has allowed just 2.5 gpg at home, while they scored just 2.54 gpg overall on the year. Buffalo needs this game bad and will will look to their defense to get it. I expect a conservative game plan by the Sabres in this one and that should lead to a low scoring game.
2 UNIT PLAY
Boston/ Pittsburgh Over 6: Pittsburgh's last 8 games have looked more like baseball scores, as all 8 games have hit at least 6 gpg, with an average of 8.9 gpg being scored over that stretch. Pittsburgh has allowed 4.2 gpg in their last 7 games and face a Bruins team that is 3rd in the league in scoring (3.2 gpg). Pittsburgh leads the league in scoring at 3.3 ggp and they have averaged 4.6 gpg in their last 8 games. Boston has allowed just 2.4 gpg on the year, but I expect the high scoring Pens to put up at least 3 goals in this one, while the Bruins should be good for at least 3 of their own. This game should be fun.
1 UNIT PLAY
San Jose -110 over DALLAS: The Sharks are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record and 6-1 in the last 7 meetings, while Dallas is 2-7 in their last 9 games playing on 2 days rest.
David Banks
76ers / Heat Under 184
Eastern Conference action heats up Tuesday night in South Beach where the Miami Heat (37-14, 25-26 ATS) will attempt to bounce back from their embarrassing performance in Beantown when they host the Philadelphia 76ers (29-23, 26-25-1 ATS); tip-off from the American Airlines Arena is set to go live on NBA TV starting at 7:30 ET.
Heading into the All Star break, Head Coach Doug Collins and his staff had the Sixers perched atop the Atlantic Division standings and comfortably within the Eastern Conference playoff picture. However since, Philly has gone on to drop nine of its 18 games (8-10 ATS) played and now finds itself looking up to Boston in the division standings a full game back. With that the case, they're also now the not so proud owners of the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference a game in back of #6 Atlanta and 2.5-games ahead of #8 New York. Philadelphia will enter tonight's duel having alternated wins and losses in each of their last eight played games. Last time out, they outlasted what turned out to be a game Atlanta Hawks outfit 95-90, but failed to cover the closing seven-point spread. Though the Sixers check in #5 on the Sagarin Ratings, they've only managed a 3-12 SU record against the Top 10 teams on that list; Andre Iguodala and his mates are 10-13 SU & 9-13-1 ATS as visitors.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Heat's locker room after they had just gotten steamrolled by the Celtics on Sunday. The 92-71 embarrassing defeat saw Miami post its fewest amount of points scored in a game this season, and it also disallowed them from gaining a game on Chicago for the best record in the East after the Bulls were rolled by Oklahoma City earlier in the day. One has to wonder what the problem currently is with the Heat in not being able to step up to the plate when a golden opportunity presented itself. That unfortunately has been the case recently for Head Coach Eric Spoelstra's squad as Miami has won just three of its L/7 games both SU & ATS versus teams currently headed to the playoffs. That said; Miami has been at its absolute best as a host winning 21 of its 23 overall games outright while posting a 12-11 mark against the closing number. Unlike tonight's opponent, the Heat have done well versus elite opposition posting an 11-5 SU mark against Sagarin's Top 10.
This will be the fourth and final game played between these Eastern Conference rivals in the regular season. Miami has won and covered each of the previous three and stands a moneymaking 9-1 SU & 6-4 ATS in the L/10 overall confrontations. The 'under' has cashed in two of the three meetings to date and checks in 6-4 in the L/10 overall. The Sixers will have had two days to prepare for this match-up, but they've lost and failed to cover each of the previous two times they played under that scenario this season; they've also failed to cover each of their L/8 against +.600 opposition. As for Miami, it's bounced back from miserable defeats posting a 7-1 ATS tally when playing off an outright loss of 10+ points, but they've only churned out a 3-8 ATS record versus the L/11 +.500 opponents its battled.
Tony Stoffo
New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Indiana Pacers -6
Free Play for Tuesday - NY Knicks at Indiana For this game we have a pure reverse money play developing here - as the public is all over the Knicks with 64% of all straight bets - yet the odds makers have already had to make an adjustment here - raising the line on the Pacers - thus looking for more New York money to balance their books - meaning the sharp money has come in on Indiana heavy in this spot. So let's look for the Pacers to bounce back against the Knicks here this evening. Knicks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Wunderdog
New York Rangers vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Play: Philadelphia Flyers
The Philadelphia Flyers after a sluggish 5-9 stretch, have turned it up down the stretch of the season. The Flyers have posted a 12-5 mark in their last 17 games. The Flyers’ offense has really been clicking over their last five games, as they have lit the lamp 23 times for an average of 4.6 goals per contest. The Rangers come to Philadelphia at just 2-2 over their last four games, and have allowed their last two opponents to score 4 times each - not a good sign when facing a hot offense. Looking at the Rangers’ last five facing a team that scored 5+ in their previous game, they have taken the doughnut at 0-5, and are just 2-6 in their last eight vs. a winning club. Play on Philly.
Scott Delaney
I've been a big fan of Brittney Griner since she was a sophomore. Been following her all along. So it pains me to say the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are the play tonight in the women's national championship game. I think this line is way too much, despite the Baylor Bears' dominance in women's hoops this season.
Notre Dame is playing with a chip on its shoulders right now, and certainly has revenge on the brain from the Preseason WNIT, where the Bears won back on Nov. 20. Yes, Griner lit up the Irish with 32 points, 14 rebounds and five blocks in their first meeting, but the Irish have a physical nature about them right now, and I believe they're going to be smothering her and frustrating her as much as they can to keep this one close.
But more than anything, I think what we're going to see in this one is the Irish put one player on Griner, and concentrate their staunch defensive efforts on perimeter players. That means Griner has to become a one-woman show tonight. Not that she isn't capable of being just that, but this is the national champioinship, and it's not going to be as easy as she thinks.
Notre Dame's speed and transition game could be the prescription, to keep the Bears on their heels, while keeping Griner out of the paint.,where she is a force in blocking shots - something the Bears count on.
And let's not forget, Notre Dame has been a team on a mission ever since losing in last year's championship game, to Texas A&M. And let's not forget, that just behind Griner, is arguably the nation's second-most dynamic player, All-American Skylar Diggins.
Quite frankly, I wouldn't mind seeing Griner cut down the net before she heads to the WNBA, and for Baylor to finish the season undefeated. But to cover a number like this, I think I'll take the underdog.
2♦ NOTRE DAME
Chuck O'Brien
Not much to choose from a freebie tonight, but I will take a shot with the under in the women's title game, as I think we're in store for a physical game in Denver tonight.
Word is that Notre Dame is going to let Baylor star Brittney Griner do her thing, and will play perimeter D, forcing the other four players to step up in their roles. So if everything is left to Griner, the Bears won't depend much on balanced scoring.
The Irish are counting on transition buckets, which isn't necessarily easy. And at some point in that altitude, the timing of everything will come to a halt.
I don't see these two playing balanced basketball at both ends. It'll be more so a bit of an erratic effort from both teams, and that means missed shots and sloppy play.
Look for this one to stay low.
2♦ Notre Dame/Baylor UNDER
Jeff Benton
Your Tuesday freebie is the Knicks plus the points at Indiana.
The Knicks have been dealing with multiple injuries to some very key players as we head into the final days of the regular season, and truth be told they are not quite yet out of the woods in securing a playoff spot.
New York has been able to win nine of their last eleven games both straight up and against the spread, included in that stretch is a home-and-home two game sweep of the Pacers back on March 17th and 18th.
The Pacers are just 10-13 against the spread on their home hardwood this season, and the road team in this series has gone a highly-profitable 10-3 against the spread the past 13 series meetings.
Indiana is currently sitting in the 5th playoff spot at this writing, but based on the series numbers listed above, I do not see the Pacers pulling away from the Knicks in this one. Take the points.
3♦ NEW YORK
Derek Mancini
11-5-1 Free Play roll, including the Kings over the Timberwolves last night! For today's Free Play I'm siding with the Heat in bounce back mode to trounce the visiting Sixers. Say what you will about the Heat's recent struggles on the road (losses at Indiana, at OKC, and at Boston), but they're downright nasty in front of the home fans. The fact Miami has won and covered all three meetings with the 76ers also tells me that Philly simply cannot match up. But let's dig a little deeper.
Problem for Philly is the Miami does what they do... They just do it better. Both teams field elite defenses, but the 76ers just don't have the horses to crack Miami's man-to-man. The Heat on the other hand, can hit them from multiple angles with James and Wade. And it's important to note that in their lone meeting in South Florida this season, Bosh dropped 30 on them, so let's not count him out either. And for those of you thinking Hawes changes this match up, think again, as all he does is slow the game down even more, something Miami has no problem doing.
There's also no question the Heat are going to be highly motivated after getting their asses handed to them by the Celtics on national TV Sunday. It was a major embarassment, and the talk of the town. A return home against a road-weary 76ers team (1-4 ATS L5 road games), is just what the doctor ordered. Moreover, probably the most telling trend of the night is the Heat are 7-1 ATS in their L8 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. In other words, this is a team that bounces back strong after an ass-kicking. Lay it with Miami over Philadelphia Tuesday.
3♦ MIAMI
Chris Jordan
The question is out there: will San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich rest his starters against a weaker opponent? To be honest with you, it won't matter, cause even the Spurs' reserves are better than the Cleveland reserves that have to play, since the Cavaliers are so dinged up.
Cleveland's Daniel Gibson is probably out for the season with a torn tendon in his left foot. Center Anderson Varejao was lost on Feb. 10 with a broken right wrist. Now, making matters worse, rookie Kyrie Irving just might miss his second straight game with a sprained right shoulder he suffered last Friday, in a 121-84 loss to Milwaukee.
The Cavaliers have lost seven straight games, and are catching a Spurs team at the wrong team, no matter who Popp puts on the floor.
San Antonio is building its strength by playing deep into the bench, with recent acquisition Stephen Jackson learning his new role with the Western Conference contender. I like the make-up of this Spurs team and think it has a chance to make a run at the Oklahoma City Thunder during this last month.
Lay the road chalk.
2♦ SAN ANTONIO
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on the Indiana Pacers over the NY Knicks.
Honestly, this one looks almost too good to be true. That's why I only have it listed as a free play instead of a premium release. Do I like it? Absolutely I do. But is there something about it that screams "run away"?!?!
Maybe somewhere in between.
Either way, I do think it's worth exploring. We see Indiana's seasonal stats are all better than New York's except for one... total points scored per game.
After that it's all Indiana. FG percentage, FT percentage, 3-point percentage, rebounding, blocked shots, defense, turnovers, bench, etc. The list goes on... and New York simply doesn't have the personnel or the numbers to match Indiana's... especially on the road.
What happened to all the Lin-sanity talk lately? Oh yeah, Carmelo came back, stole some of his thunder, and now he's hurt. Yep, Jeremy Lin is out for a while and there's no timetable on his expected return.
Not only that, but now you have Amare Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler hurt. Of course you know Jared Jeffries and Bill Walker are out indefinitely. It's a complete mess in New York and they are fighting with everything they have to keep their heads above water.
Meanwhile the Pacers enter tonight's game off an impressive two-point win in Houston and look to continue to climb in the Eastern Conference. They are clearly the surprise team in the East and seem to be getting better as the season goes along.
Tonight it appears to be a mismatch and Indiana should win by 10.
Take the Pacers as your free play of the day.
4♦ INDIANA
Matt Rivers
Free play time for Tuesday, and I see some value in backing the Golden State Warriors plus the points in Memphis tonight.
The Grizzlies recorded a nice win last night at Oklahoma City, but they do have a huge date with Dallas on the schedule for tomorrow night, and they do have a couple of players - Conley and Cunningham - that are dealing with bum ankles.
This is the perfect spot for Golden State to find the back-door against the spread. The Warriors have dropped both their last five on the year, and they last five in this rivalry, but Mark Jackson's club has shown spirit on the road this year, going 15-9 against the spread on the highway this season. Included is an underdog cover on Sunday at the Lakers.
With Memphis in a definite letdown spot, look for Golden State to stay inside of the roomy impost this Tuesday night.
1♦ GOLDEN STATE
Dom Chambers
For my free selection, let’s take a look at the Miami Heat to cover against the Philadelphia 76ers.
The Heat have hit a little bump on the road. In their last five games, they have gone 2-3 straight up and ATS.
There is one trend here to notice. The three games they lost were all on the road.
Today, their talents are back at South Beach.
And Philadelphia comes to town.
And it’s not a good matchup for the 76ers. They have played three times this season and the Heat have won and covered all three times.
Now, you have a Heat team that was embarrassed in Boston. You have to think you will get their best effort back at home.
On the road, the 76ers are 10-13 both straight up and ATS. In their last five games, their scoring has gone down to 89.8 points a game. That will not cut it against Miami.
The Heat at home are 21-2 straight up, but 12-11 ATS. But they score as they have scored 102.8 points a game at home, shooting 49.4 percent.
The 76ers just can’t keep up with that.
Take the Heat and lay the points.
2♦ HEAT
John Ryan
Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat
Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers
5* graded play on Philadelphia 76ers as they take on the Miami Heat in an Eastern Conference showdown and a possible first round playoff matchup. The Miami Heat re not playing well and are just 1-7 in road games against elite NBA playoff bound teams. This does not bode well since they will not be the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference and may have to play Oklahoma City should they win the Eastern Conference Championship. At this point, winning the East is a real stretch as they were completely dismantled by the Boston Celtics.
There are 15 games left to the regular season and the Heat have posted a pedestrian 10-7 record since the All-Star break. Head Coach Spoelstra overall health is being directly affected by the lack of resolve to fix major fundamental flaws on this team of three super stars. There has never been a perfect NBA team and it is not a prerequisite to win an NBA Title, but there has to be a dominant will and resolve to do the things and to make the individual sacrifices to win an NBA Title. That resolve is massively deficient on the Heat.
Cavalier statements made by LeBron James, just hours after the Heat?s worst defeat of the season echoed the fantasy that there is nothing to worry about. That is far too early to hit the ?panic button?, but based on their play during this 10-7 stretch would be justified. You can see it in the body language and stress that is written all over his face that he is near the panic mode and perhaps a locker room tirade maybe his only option to wake up these apparently lazy super stars before it is too late.
They now are going to play a team of over achievers that have gone through a tough gauntlet of games, but are learning as a team what it takes to win. If it were not for the Celtics putting on the second-best record since the All-Star break, they would still be leading the Atlantic Division.
The simulator shows a high probability that the 76ers will lose this game by nine or fewer points Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 96-53 for 65% winners since 2006. Play on road dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games with the game taking place in the second half of the season. Of the 149 plays made based on the criteria of this system, 82 plays or 59%, covered the spread by seven or more points. This underscores my belief that Philadelphia has a great shot at winning this game and sending the Heat further into the abyss.
Philadelphia has the best scoring defense in the NBA allowing just 87.8 points per game. The 76ers rank best in the NBA allowing 10.0 fast break points per game and second-best allowing 36.7 opponent points in the paint per game. They do a great job disrupting passing lanes and force opponents into a high number of isolation man defense situations. This is evident by their second best ranking in the NBA allowing opponents to have just 18.9 assists-per-game.
All of these defensive strengths have caused problems for the Miami offense this season and I strongly believe it will overwhelm them again tonight. Take the Philadelphia 76ers as a 5* Titan play.