Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, April 30

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Boston at Toronto
The Blue Jays look to build on their 19-9 record in Brandon Morrow's last 28 home starts against teams with a winning record. Toronto is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Jays favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+110)

Game 951-952: NY Mets at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Hefner) 13.552; Miami (Slowey) 14.063
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+105); Under

Game 953-954: Washington at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Gonzalez) 14.537; Atlanta (Hudson) 15.069
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-110); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-110); Over

Game 955-956: San Diego at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Volquez) 16.509; Cubs (Jackson) 15.008
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-145); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+125); N/A

Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (McDonald) 16.123; Milwaukee (Estrada) 17.648
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-150); Under

Game 959-960: Cincinnati at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 15.079; St. Louis (Garcia) 16.086
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-135); Over

Game 961-962: San Francisco at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 16.641; Arizona (Cahill) 15.858
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+105); Under

Game 963-964: Colorado at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 16.447; LA Dodgers (Ryu) 16.810
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-130); Over

Game 965-966: Houston at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Humber) 14.904; NY Yankees (Kuroda) 14.669
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-300); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+250); Under

Game 967-968: Minnesota at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Worley) 15.813; Detroit (Verlander) 17.544
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-250); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-250); Over

Game 969-970: Boston at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 15.209; Toronto (Morrow) 15.505
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Boston (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+110); Under

Game 971-972: Chicago White Sox at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Quintana) 15.413; Texas (Darvish) 14.734
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Texas (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+170); Under

Game 973-974: Tampa Bay at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Cobb) 15.490; Kansas City (Shields) 15.989
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-130); Over

Game 975-976: LA Angels at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Richards) 14.757; Oakland (Parker) 13.654
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Oakland (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+100); Under

Game 977-978: Baltimore at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hammel) 15.503; Seattle (Maurer) 14.526
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-125); Over

Game 979-980: Philadelphia at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Halladay) 16.053; Cleveland (McAllister) 14.868
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-115); Under

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: San Francisco GiantsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When San Francisco sends the steady serves of Madison Bumgarner to the hill against the Diamondbacks Tuesday night in Arizona the Giants will do so knowing he is 8-1 in his last nine April team starts, including 4-0 away. Bumgarner is also 5-1 with a 1.55 ERA in his last six overall team starts. With Bumgarner in terrific KW form with 23 strikeouts and 3 walks in his last three starts, look for more of the same this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on San Francisco.

Bryan LeonardFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Grizzlies / Clippers Under 180FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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With the series now tied at two games apiece with the home team holding serve each game, this becomes an intense three game series. Keep in mind that these two did battle in last years postseason so they are very familiar with each other. Three of the first four games have sailed over the posted total with the lone under staying below by just 1 1/2 points. But now that these truly are must win games we expect the defenses to be ratcheted up a bit more than usual. And given that this current total is higher than 3 of the first 4 games we have an excellent spot to go under the number.

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota vs. DetroitFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 7½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This game fits a nice 80% totals system that plays to the under for home favorites of 200 or higher, like Detroit that are off a 1 run home favored win at -200 or higher with a total that is 8 or less and they scored 4 or less runs, vs an opponent off a road dog loss at +140 or higher and scored 4 or less runs. The Twins have gone under in 6 of 8 Division games and are hitting .225 in those games. Detroit has also struggled at the plate in division games averaging a shade over 3 runs on .229 hitting. Tonight they get Vance Worley who has better Road numbers than he does at home. He will Oppose Tigers Ace Justin Verlander who has a 1,80 era in his last 3 starts and has allowed just 1 earned run in his last 21 innings vs Minnesota. Look for this one to stay under the total tonight.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics
Pick: Los Angeles AngelsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Angels and A's have to be a little bit drained coming out of the amazing Monday night marathon. The win was sweet for Oakland, as they rallied from way back to force the extras and then won it in the 19th inning. Good thing, as they were about at the point when they were literally running out of bodies.
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That's really the essence of tonight's opinion. Oakland got all kinds of dinged up in the game that wouldn't end, and they're likely to be shorthanded tonight. The bullpens for both teams took a hit last night, but it was worse for the A's. I have to give the Halos a significant edge just in terms of the available bodies tonight.
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Beyond that, Garrett Richards rates a considerable advantage over Jarrod Parker in the starting pitcher comparison. Richards is displaying what he's capable of when he commands his pitches and avoids walks. But Jarrod Parker is pretty much of a disaster right now. Parker needs to work his changeup to be successful, and he simply has not been able to locate that pitch on any kind of regular basis. That means a reliance on his other pitches, and the results have been downright hideous.
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The Angels are having a rough time of it, and it's seemingly never easy to beat this determined Oakland entry. But off the starting pitchers and the circumstances out of the crazy Monday nighter, I have to side with the Halos tonight.

Jim Feist

Chicago at Texas
Pick: Under

Texas has ace Yu Darvish on the mound with a 1.65 ERA striking out 49 in 32+ innings and only 10 walks and 16 hits allowed! Texas is on a 12-5-2 run under the total and 4-0 under the total at home against a left-handed starter. Chicago has a fine lefty starter going in Jose Quintana (2-0, 2.78 ERA), who doesn't walk anyone and is a great strikeout pitcher. The under is 33-16-2 in the White Sox's last 51 road games and 9-4-1 under in Quintana's last 14 starts. And when these teams meet the under is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings, including 19-7-1 under in the last 27 meetings in Texas.

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Colorado RockiesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Colorado's brief slump at the plate ended with a vengeance on Monday night at Chavez Ravine when the Rockies blasted Dodgers pitching foe 19 hits in a 12-2 romp. With the bats apparently alive again, Colorado starter Jorge De La Rosa could be especially dangerous this evening considering his recent form that includes three straight solid six-inning efforts, with an ERA and WHIP each at 1.00 over that stretch. So we're going to dismiss some of De La Rosa's poor historic numbers (including an 0-7 career mark) against the Dodgers, also because most of those were accumulated between 2005-09. Besides, De La Rosa has pitched fairly well at the Ravine, with a 2.49 ERA in three starts, betrayed instead by a lack of run support. De La Rosa faces a sputtering Dodgers offense that is batting just .198 over the past six games.

Cajun SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington vs. AtlantaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Atlanta Braves are 0-19-2 Under at home when coming off a win in which they came back from a deficit during a night game and failed to lead by 3 or more runs after four innings of play. Take the Under

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh vs. MilwaukeeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: MilwaukeeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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James McDonald (2-2, 4.38 ERA) gets the call for the visitors. McDonald has been erratic this year and his 15 total walks lead the NL at the moment. In his last start he gave up five hits and three runs in a no-decision vs. the Cardinals on April 27th (McDonald would finish a sub-par 6-6 with a pedestrian 5.95 ERA on the road last year). Marco Estrada gave up two runs off five hits over 6 1/3's frames of work and was unfortunate to be saddled with a 2-1 loss to the Padres on Wednesday; he struck out three and walked two in his first setback of the year. Here's a big opportunity for the right-hander to make an immediate return to the winners circle vs. a team he dominated last season, going 1-0 with a 1.83 ERA in three starts vs. the Pirates in 2012 (note that Estrada was 3-2 with a 2.97 ERA in friendly confines a season ago). Recent performance plays a part in my handicapping toolbox and in this case, there's no question that Estrada comes into this contest with considerable momentum. I simply can't see McDonald's control issues being 100% resolved since his last outing and believe the talent discrepancy on the mound justifies in laying this mid-sized price.

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Los Angeles vs. St. LouisFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The defending champion L.A. Kings start the season on the road in the first round of the playoffs. This should be familiar territory for L.A., after going all the way to the Finals and winning the cup in 2012, playing on the road the entire way. The Kings swept the Blues in last year's playoffs, and they won all three meetings this year.
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Here are my keys to the game:FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1: Situational/Motivational - The Blues know what they have to do to beat the Kings, they need to shut them down and win with their defense. They aren't nearly as talented offensively, so the last thing they want is a shootout. When the Blues are on top of their game, they allow opponents fewer than 20 shots on goal, and that's what they'll be looking to do against L.A. tonight. "Look, we haven't beaten them in two years," Hitchcock said Monday. "I think we're really hungry for this series. It's a matchup that quite frankly if we're going to go far, the confidence if we could win this series would be astronomical."
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2: Special Teams - Both the Blues and the Kings are excellent at killing penalties, with each team ranked in the top 10 in the league. The Kings are killing penalties at an 83% rate, while the Blues have an 84% kill rate.
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3: X-Factor - Brian Elliot was playing so poorly at the beginning of this season that he was sent to the minors. Oh my how things have changed. Elliot beat out Jaroslav Halak for the starting role with a stellar second half, and he allowed just three goals in his final three starts. He faced an average of fewer than 20 shots per game in those contests.