Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, April 5,2011

MTi Sports

Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Atlanta Braves

So far this season, the Brewers have struck out an average of 9.25 times per game. They are pressing and this is not a good sign against Derek Lowe. The Braves are a perfect 5-0 with Lowe when facing a team that has averaged at least 7.0 strike outs per game season-to-date. In his last three starts in this spot, the Braves won by scores of 4-0, 5-0 and 5-1. Very nice. The Brewers have shown no tendency to break out of the doldrums in similar conditions. Milwaukee is 0-9 at home when their line is within 25 cents of pickem and they are off a loss in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs, losing by an AVERAGE of 5.4 runs per game. Also, the Brewers are 13-27 at home when they are seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they held the lead. Consider the Braves.

Hollywood Sports

Charlotte Bobcats at Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: Charlotte Bobcats

Charlotte (32-44) needs as many wins as possible as they trail the Pacers by two games for the 8th and final spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race. But the Bobcats let a golden opportunity go on Sunday when they let the Washington Wizards -- the league's worst team on the road -- to take a 19-point lead before settling for a 97-91 win in Charlotte. Despite that setback, the Bobcats remain just one game behind Indiana in the loss column so these games remain crucial. They should come out focused on Tuesday against perhaps the worst team in the league in the Cavaliers. Cleveland (15-61) is just 10-28 on their home court this season -- and Charlotte has covered 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. The Cavs have lost three in a row after their 123-107 loss at New York on Sunday. Coach Byron Scott is not getting much from the defensive end of the court as Cleveland is allowing 105.0 PPG on 49% shooting from the field and 39.2% shooting from behind the arc. The Bobcats are only 12-26 on the road this season -- but the Cavs consistently underachieve in situations like this as they are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home games against teams with a road winning percentage below 40%. With playoff implications still at hand, Charlotte is unlikely to blow two straight opportunities against two of the worst teams in the league. Lay the points with the Bobcats.

Marc Lawrence

Sacramento Kings at Houston Rockets
Prediction: Sacramento Kings

When the Kings take on the Rockets in Houston Tuesday evening Sacramento will take the court with same season triple revenge on its mind. Aside from the fact that the Kings has cashed in eight of their last nine visits in this series, Sacto is is a super 14-3-1 ATS in games when seeking same season triple revenge exact when playing off a win in its previous game. With the Rockets looking ahead to a much bigger game with New Orleans up next, and standing 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS in games before battling the Rockets, it all points to taking the points here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Sacramento.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Lakers

Considering the fact that the Jazz have not won here in three seasons, going 0-10 straight up vs. the Lakers at Staples Center, while losing by an average of 14 PPG and the fact that the Lakers just beat them in Utah, we have no problem laying the points with an LA team that is off just its 2nd loss since the All Star Break. Utah has lost eight straight.

Play on: LA Lakers

Matt Fargo

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers

Colorado opened the season by splitting its first two games against Arizona before a Sunday postponement and a Monday off-day and those two days could affect the Rockies such as timing and overall chemistry. Colorado is expected to contend in the National League West along with the Dodgers and Giants and while playing at home is always an advantage, the Rockies are at the wrong end of it tonight. Going back to last season, the Rockies are 2-10 in their last 12 divisional games. Los Angeles took three of four games against reigning World Series Champions San Francisco and did so against one of the best rotations in the league. The Dodgers were shut out against Matt Cain but managed 13 runs in the other three games and likely will not need a big offensive output tonight with their ace on the hill. They struggled on the road last season and while Colorado had one of the best home field records, Los Angeles comes in with an 11-4 record the last 15 meetings in Colorado. Clayton Kershaw will be making his second start this season and his first outing showed why he is quietly becoming part of the Cy Young talk. He shut out the Giants for seven inning, allowing just four hits and one walk while striking out nine and outpitching Tim Lincecum. He posted a 2.91 ERA last season and he was better on the road, putting up a 2.43 ERA in 15 starts away from home. The Dodgers have won his last six starts against Colorado as well as going 14-3 in his last 17 starts against the National League West. Colorado counters with Jhoulys Chacin who had a great rookie season with a 3.28 ERA in 21 starts and seven relief appearances but he went only 9-11. Like Kershaw, his best work came on the road where he posted a 2.44 ERA over 62.2 innings compared to a 3.98 ERA in 74.2 innings at Coors Field. Only three of his six starts against the Dodgers last season were quality performances including just one of three at home where the Rockies went 1-2 in those three games. 3* Los Angeles Dodgers

Steve Merril

San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Francisco Giants

The Giants continue their road trip as they play in San Diego on Tuesday night for the Padres home opener. San Diego will be breaking in Aaron Harang for the first time during the regular season. Harang had a spring to forget going 2-2 with a 6.12 ERA in six outings. He struck out only 11 while walking eight allowing hitters to have an average of .301 against him. The former Reds pitcher is 5-6 with a 3.54 ERA in 13 career starts against the Giants. Mark DeRosa (5-17), Pat Burrell (5-13), Mike Fontenot (7-20), Buster Posey (2-3) and Nate Schierholtz (2-6) all have good numbers against Harang. Madison Bumgarner looks to build off his great season last year. He faced San Diego twice giving up just three runs and 11 hits in 14 innings of work. His one game at San Diego last season was a 1-0 loss. The lefty has yet to give up more then two earned runs against San Diego in three career starts. Over their last three seasons, San Francisco is 91-60 after a loss. Bumgarner has good numbers against Ryan Ludwick (0-6), Chris Denorfia (1-6) and Nick Hundley (1-6). We'll take the Giants to break out in San Diego after a poor series in Los Angeles.

Cajun Sports

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Play: Memphis Grizzlies -9

The Grizzlies have done a good job of keeping the Rockets in their rearview mirror as they attempt to hold onto the eighth spot in the playoffs. Memphis has gone 4-1 straight up over their last five contests including a perfect 5-0 ATS over that span. Houston is on a mini win streak having won two at home versus San Antonio and Atlanta after dropping two of three on the road. Tonight’s opponent the LA Clippers have been up and down this season playing great one night such as their most recent game which was a win over Oklahoma City right after losing by double-digits to the Phoenix Suns. The Clippers have not been kind to their backers either dropping nine of their last eleven against the number. LA is 8-29 straight up when playing away from home and 15-21 ATS. Memphis is 28-10 SU at home this season and a moneymaking 25-12 against the number. The Grizzlies have covered eight straight games against the number and twenty-three of their last thirty-one since January. Memphis has won and covered both meetings against the Clippers this season. Clippers star Blake Griffin has been held to a 13.5 points per game average in the two meetings including just eight points in their last meeting here a game in which LA lost 105 to 82. LA is 4-12 ATS in road games after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread this season. LA is 7-24 ATS against Southwest division opponents over the last two seasons. LA is 41-64 ATS as a road underdog the last three seasons. Memphis is 12-4 ATS after having won four of their last five games this season. Memphis is 32-18 ATS off a home win the last two seasons. The Grizzlies are 11-3-1 ATS as a favorite in this price range coming off a straight up win in their last game. We want to Play ON NBA conference home favorites coming off three games where they won straight up, against the spread and the games went Under the posted total. Playing on these home favorites has produced a record of 42-25-1 ATS. Lay the points with the Grizzlies as they protect their playoff position and complete the hat trick versus the Clippers.

Rob Vinciletti

Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Los Angeles Angels

Road favorites off a road loss that had a total of 10 or more who take on home teams that come in off a road dog loss at +140 or higher have won 9 of ten times the past few years. The Angels have J. Weaver making the start and he was superb going 6+ innings without allowing a run. In his starts vs Tampa Bay he is 4-1 with a 2.45 era. Tampa has J. Niemann making the start and he has a 9.38 era vs the Angels. The Angles ar 25-14 as a road favorite from -110 to -125 the past few years. Look for them to win game 1 of this series tonight.

Scott Spreitzer

Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs
PICK: Chicago Cubs

The Diamondbacks were horrible last season in road games against righthanded pitching. They finished the season with a 17-37 mark in this situation, averaging just 3.12 rpg. Arizona struggled in this spot again yesterday, losing the series opener, 4-1. Randy Wells was the latest righty to shut down the "Snakes," allowing just one earned run and six hits in six innings of work. The D'backs didn't fare any better against the Cub bullpen, going scoreless over the final three innings, while registering just two hits. In fact, Arizona went scoreless after Willie Bloomquist led the game off with a home run. The Cubs will start righthander Andrew Cashner who made 53 appearances last season, all in relief. He earned a job in the starting rotation this spring, and he begins against a team that's 4 for 34 with runners in scoring position, a .118 team batting average. Barry Enright counters for the visitor. The righthander fared well at home last season, but was tagged for a 4.87 ERA & 1.45 WHIP in eight road starts. Enright lost his last five starts of the season, giving up 23 earned runs and 39 base runners in 25 2/3 innings. That's a hefty 8.05 ERA & 1.56 WHIP. The D'backs have won just 17 of their last 63 road games and I expect another tough outing at Wrigley. I'm backing the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday afternoon.

BIG AL

Giants @ San Diego Padres
PICK: San Diego Padres

The defending World Champion Giants are expecting big things from young southpaw Madison Bumgarner this season. Bumgarner helped the Giants win their first Championship since relocating to the west coast and this year he is firmly planted in their talented rotation and barring injury he should see 30+ starts for San Francisco. But as great as the Giants season was in 2010, they struggled against San Diego, going just 6-12 in their 18 meetings, and early on they couldn't crack this team, losing their first seven meetings against the Padres, including four straight here at Petco Park. Veteran Aaron Harang has departed the hitters haven that is Cincinnati for what he hopes will be a more pitcher-friendly home in southern California and it just so happens that the 32-year-old righthander was born and raised in San Diego, so his debut here tonight is especially important to himself and his team. If Harang's Spring training campaign is any indication, he is ready to put the last three seasons behind him and return to the form of 2006 and 2007 when the hard-thrower won 16 games with an ERA around 3.7 runs and was one of the most dominant strikeout pitchers in the league. Take the Padres.

Bobby Conn

Oakland A's vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays

I'm backing the Blue Jays as a home dog over the A's as my free pick on Tuesday. Toronto is off to a great start offensively to their season, averaging better than 7 runs per game, while Oakland has sputtered to a 1-2 record behind just 3.7 runs per game. This Toronto lineup can put up some impressive numbers on their homefield and I'd expect them to do just that Tuesday night.

Jim Feist

Jazz vs LA Lakers
Pick: LA Lakers

Utah has packed in the season, and the Jazz are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall and 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. And against good teams, forget it: Utah is 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. And they face a Laker team that won't be in a good mood after a loss to Denver. It was a big game, as LA had a chance to keep up with San Antonio for the No. 1 seed. The Jazz are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Play the LA Lakers.

EZWINNERS

Cincinnati Reds -$165

The Reds are hot and the Astros are not. The defending NL Central champions are alone atop the division after a three game sweep of Milwaukee over the weekend and the Cincinnati bats are hot as they closed out the series with a 12-3 win Sunday, getting four home runs among with nineteen hits. Mike Leake gets the start for the Reds and Leake went 8-4 with a 4.23 ERA in 2010. Leake was just the 21st player since the draft began in 1965 to bypass the minor leagues altogether to make his major league debut. The Astros have started out 0-3 after being swept by the Phillies as their starting pitching has struggled and their bats have been cold. The Astros also started last season losing eight straight games to begin the season. Play on Cincinnati.

Luke Anthony

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Denver Nuggets -3½

Is there a hotter team in the NBA right now than the Denver Nuggets? I think not. They just knocked off the only team that had an argument when they beat the Lakers in LA over the weekend. The Nuggets are coming in winning 6 in a row while the Thunder are on game 4 of a road trip where they are 1-2 with losses to the Trail Blazers and Clippers in their last 2. The Nuggets are also 31-7 on the season at home and shoot lights out on this floor. Look for JR Smith and company to get it done tonight against a tired and warn out Thunder team tonight at home.