SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA
Milwaukee (42-34, 49-26-1 ATS) at Chicago (37-39, 39-35-2 ATS)
The Bulls try to keep their postseason hopes alive while the Bucks look to move a step closer to locking up a playoff berth when these Central Division rivals clash at the United Center.
Milwaukee currently sits sixth in the Eastern Conference playoff pecking order, a half-game behind Miami for fifth and two games clear of seventh-place Charlotte. Meanwhile, the Bulls are on the outside looking in, as they are in the ninth slot, one full game behind Toronto for the eighth and final playoff berth in the East.
The Bucks have been idle since Saturday, when they cooled off the red-hot Suns with a 107-98 victory as a two-point home favorite. However, it was a costly win for Milwaukee, which lost leading rebounder and center Andrew Bogut, who fell hard after being fouled and suffered season-ending injuries to his right arm, including a dislocated elbow. The Bucks are just 3-4 SU in their last seven games, but they’ve cashed in five straight games and now sport the NBA’s best pointspread record.
Chicago is coming off consecutive wins over the Wizards on Friday (95-87 as a 5½-point road favorite) and Bobcats on Saturday (96-88 as a 4½-point home chalk). The Bulls are 6-2 SU in their last eight games and 9-2 ATS in their last 11. However, they’ve alternated SU wins and losses in their last seven home games, and they’re just 3-7 in their last 10 at the United Center (4-6 ATS).
The host has won all three meetings in this rivalry this season, four in a row dating to last year and nine of the last 11. However, the visitor and underdog have cashed in all three of this year’s battles, which have been decided by two, two and three points. In the lone meeting in Chicago way back in the first week of the season, the Bulls held on 83-81, but Milwaukee easily covered as an 8½-point underdog.
Including two spread-covers in Milwaukee this season, the Bulls are 6-2 ATS in their last eight matchups against the Bucks. Also, prior to this season, the favorite had covered in five straight meetings.
Milwaukee is riding a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 39-17-1 overall, 22-7 on the road, 34-16-1 versus the Eastern Conference, 4-1 in Central Division battles, 12-4-1 after a SU win, 36-15-1 after a spread-cover, 14-4 versus losing teams and 5-2-1 on Tuesday. Likewise, Chicago is on ATS runs of 9-2 overall, 4-0 against the Eastern Conference, 19-7-1 versus the Central Division and 22-8 following a spread-cover.
The over is 3-1-1 in the Bucks’ last five overall, but otherwise they’re on “under” runs of 35-16-1 against the Eastern Conference, 9-2 versus the Central Division, 9-3 on Tuesday and 4-1 when coming off two days’ rest. Also, Chicago is on “under” streaks of 7-2 overall, 5-1 at home, 6-1 against the Eastern Conference and 6-2 after two days off.
On the flip side, these teams have topped the total in seven of their last 10 meetings overall and seven of the last eight at the United Center. However, the under is 2-1 in this year’s three clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Oklahoma City (48-28, 45-31 ATS) at Utah (50-27, 47-27-3 ATS)
Two division rivals that have already locked up postseason berths clash for the fourth and final time in the regular season, as the Thunder go for the season sweep of the Jazz when they visit EnergySolutions Arena.
Oklahoma City rolls into Salt Lake City on a four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS) and it has won 15 of its last 20 games. It clinched its playoff spot with Saturday’s 121-116 upset win at Dallas as a three-point underdog, then returned home Sunday and knocked off Minnesota 116-108, but came up short as a 13½-point favorite despite another 40-point effort from Kevin Durant. The Thunder have won and covered three straight road games, and they’re 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight on the highway. Also, the SU winner has cashed in each of Oklahoma City’s last 10 roadies.
Utah has been off since Friday, when its three-game winning streak ended with a 106-92 loss at the Lakers as a 4½-point road underdog. The Jazz are still 8-3 in their last 11 games (7-4 ATS), and they’ve alternated spread-covers in their last six contests. Going back to Jan. 6, Utah is 29-11-3 ATS, and only once during that 43-game stretch have the Jazz failed to cash in consecutive games. Also, Jerry Sloan’s squad has won nine straight home games, going 8-1 ATS.
The Thunder have defeated Utah three times this season (2-1 ATS), with the most lopsided result coming in Salt Lake City, a 104-94 rout as an eight-point underdog back on Nov. 24. Oklahoma City has cashed in seven of its last nine trips to Utah, but the home team is still 6-2 SU in the last eight clashes. Additionally, the underdog is on a 13-6 ATS roll in this rivalry.
Oklahoma City is on ATS streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 7-3 against the Western Conference, 36-17-1 on Tuesday, 5-2 after one day off and 39-16 following a non-cover. Meanwhile, the Jazz are on pointspread upticks of 33-15-3 overall, 23-7-2 at home (8-1 last nine), 19-7-2 against the Western Conference, 4-1-2 versus division rivals, 15-6-3 against winning teams, 13-5 following three days off, 6-0 after a double-digit loss, 23-6 after any defeat and 22-6 after a non-cover.
Additionally, Utah and Oklahoma City are second and third, respectively, in the NBA’s pointspread standings.
The Thunder have topped the total in four straight games overall, four straight on the road, 11 of 16 after a day off, 14 of 17 following a SU win and 11 of 14 on Tuesday. Also, the Jazz have gone over the total in 19 of 26 divisional games and six of their last eight on Tuesday, but from there Utah carries “under” trends of 3-0-1 overall (all against the Western Conference) and 3-0-1 after a non-cover.
Finally, the over is 7-3 in the last 10 Thunder-Jazz tussles in Salt Lake City.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (0-1) at Boston (1-0)
After blowing a pair of leads and dropping their season opener on Sunday, the Yankees will try to bounce back when they send A.J. Burnett (13-9, 4.04 ERA in 2009) to the Fenway Park mound opposite Red Sox southpaw Jon Lester (15-8, 3.41).
New York squandered leads of 5-1 and 7-5 on Sunday night, eventually losing 9-7, with Boston’s Dustin Pedroia (2-for-4, HR, 2 runs, 3 RBIs) and Kevin Youkilis (3-for-4, 3 runs, 2 RBI) doing most of the damage. That makes the home team 14-5 in this rivalry since the start of last season.
Despite Sunday’s result, the Yankees remain on positive runs of 76-32 overall, 40-16 against A.L. East rivals, 38-16 against left-handed starters, 5-1 on Tuesday and 35-16 after a loss. Boston is on surges of 56-24 at Fenway, 4-1 after a victory, 44-16 following a day off and 6-2 on Tuesday, but the Sox are just 1-6 in their last seven against the A.L. East and 2-5 versus right-handed starters.
Burnett had a solid first season in New York, and he was particularly strong down the stretch of the regular season, allowing two runs or fewer in his final four starts (1.88 ERA). Also, the Yankees won eight of his last 10 starts against A.L. East foes. However, Burnett struggled in the playoffs, going 1-1 with a 5.27 ERA in five starts. Including two terrible postseason road outings in which he gave up a total of 12 earned runs in 10 innings, Burnett was just 8-7 with a 5.24 ERA in 19 starts as a visitor.
Burnett is 5-2 with a 4.23 ERA in 12 career starts against the Red Sox, including 3-2 with a 5.35 ERA in a half-dozen outings at Fenway Park. Last year, the veteran right-hander faced Boston four times, and New York lost three of those games with Burnett posting an 8.85 ERA. In three games at Fenway (all Yankees losses), Burnett went 0-2 with a 14.21 ERA (20 earned runs allowed in 12 2/3 innings).
Lester was sensational from August 1 on last season, going 6-1 with a 2.47 ERA, and Boston won eight of his final nine regular-season starts. However, in his lone playoff outing, Lester suffered a 5-0 loss at the Angels, giving up three runs on four hits in six innings. At home last year, Lester went 7-3 with a 2.86 ERA in 14 outings, and the Red Sox won his last seven starts at Fenway, all by multiple runs. In fact, the Red Sox are 26-4 in his last 30 home efforts.
Lester is 3-1 with a 3.88 ERA in eight regular-season starts against New York, and he’s given up two earned runs or fewer in five of those contests. Half of the eight starts came in 2009, and Lester went 1-1 with a 4.43 ERA.
Sunday’s game easily went over the posted total, making the over 5-2 in the last seven meetings overall and 37-18-1 in the last 56 battles in Boston. Also, New York is on “over” runs 5-0 dating to last year, 6-0-1 on the road, 4-0 on the road against lefty starters, 5-2 after a defeat, 7-2-1 on Tuesday, 5-2 when Burnett pitches on the road and 4-0-1 when Burnett faces the A.L. East. Likewise, the Red Sox carry “over” trends of 4-0 at home, 4-0 within the division, 8-2 after a win and 4-1 when Lester faces division rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER
Minnesota (0-1) at L.A. Angels (1-0)
The Twins and Angels continue their season opening series at Angel Stadium, with Nick Blackburn (11-11, 4.03) slated to take the mound for the visitors opposite L.A. southpaw Joe Saunders (16-7, 4.60).
Los Angeles took the season opener 6-3 on Monday, getting solo home runs from Jeff Mathis, newcomer Hideki Matsui and Kendry Morales, along with a solid start from Jered Weaver. Going back to last year, the Angels are on positive surges of 13-5 overall, 9-2 at home, 6-1 against right-handed starters and 7-2 versus the A.L. Central.
Despite Monday’s loss, the Twins remain on solid runs of 17-8 overall, 8-3 against lefty starters and 20-6 on Tuesday, but they’ve now lost five of their last six on the road and 39 of 56 when facing southpaws on the highway.
Minnesota won the first three meetings with Los Angeles last year, but the Angels have now taken seven of the last eight, including a three-game sweep in Minneapolis over the summer in which they outscored the Twins 35-15. In fact, the winning team in this series has scored in double digits in five of the last six meetings.
Also, the home team has won nine of the last 13 series clashes, and the Angels are 24-9 in the last 33 battles in Southern California.
Blackburn was Minnesota’s best pitcher down the stretch last season, giving up three earned runs or fewer in nine of his final 10 starts, including surrendering a total of six runs in his final five outings covering 33 innings (1.64 ERA). The Twins went 4-1 in those five games, but the one loss was a 4-3, 11-inning setback at the Yankees in the second game of the American League Division Series. Minnesota is just 8-21 in Blackburn’s last 29 road efforts and 3-13 in his last 16 against the A.L. West.
Blackburn had a better home record (7-4) than road mark (4-7), but his ERA was better on the highway (3.89) than in Minnesota (4.18). However, the right-hander has not had any success against the Angels in his career, going 0-3 with a 5.72 ERA in five starts, with Minnesota losing four of the five games. In two contests at Angel Stadium, Blackburn has surrendered 12 runs (nine earned) on 16 hits in 8 1/3 innings (9.72 ERA), losing 7-5 in 2008 and 11-5 last year.
Saunders was inconsistent for the first 4½ months of 2009, but he was sensational after mid-August, allowing three earned runs or fewer in his final 10 starts (playoffs included) and surrendering two earned runs or less eight times. During this stretch, he went 8-1 with a 2.87 ERA. However, the Angels lost both of Saunders’ American League Championship Series starts (both at Yankee Stadium) by scores of 4-3 and 5-2. Still, Los Angeles is 65-31 in Saunders’ last 96 trips to the mound.
Saunders is 23-12 with a 4.43 ERA in 52 regular-season home starts, and the Halos are 36-15 when he pitches in Anaheim. He’s faced the Twins four times, going 3-1 with a 4.10 ERA, but in his one home start against Minnesota back in 2008, Saunders got torched for six runs on nine hits in 5 1/3 innings, losing 9-0.
The Twins are on “under” runs of 11-5-2 as an underdog, 5-2 against the A.L. West, 7-3 when Blackburn starts and 18-7-1 with Blackburn working on the road, but the over is 7-2-2 in their last 11 on Tuesday and 5-2 in their last seven against left-handed starters. The Angels carry “under” streaks of 33-17-2 overall, 20-9-2 as a favorite, 8-1 against A.L. Central squads, 17-8-1 versus right-handed pitchers, 7-2-1 on Tuesday and 4-1 with Saunders on the hill. However, the over is 8-3 in Saunders’ last 11 home contests.
Finally, Monday’s series opener cleared the posted total, so the “over” is now 13-3-2 in the last 18 meetings in this series and 7-0-1 in the last eight clashes at Angel Stadium. Also, these teams have gone “over” in each of Blackburn’s last four starts against Los Angeles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and OVER
DUNKEL INDEX
San Antonio at Sacramento
The Spurs are coming off a 100-81 win over the Lakers and look to build on their 10-1 ATS record in their last 11 games after scoring 100 or more points in the previous game. San Antonio is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 11 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-6)
Game 651-652: Toronto at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 114.979; Cleveland 125.857
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 11; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 6 1/2; 207 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-6 1/2); Over
Game 653-654: Atlanta at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 121.351; Charlotte 121.776
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 193
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 655-656: Detroit at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 108.892; Philadelphia 116.476
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 7 1/2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 657-658: Golden State at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 113.908; Washington 109.575
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 4 1/2; 223
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 2 1/2; 219
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-2 1/2); Over
Game 659-660: Boston at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 121.486; New York 114.272
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 7; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 6; 208 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-6); Over
Game 661-662: Milwaukee at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 120.464; Chicago 118.972
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 193
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 6 1/2; 187 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+6 1/2); Over
Game 663-664: Houston at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 111.576; Memphis 119.809
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 8; 198
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 665-666: Oklahoma City at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 120.762; Utah 128.422
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 7 1/2; 214
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 5 1/2; 210 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-5 1/2); Over
Game 667-668: San Antonio at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 126.085; Sacramento 114.599
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 11 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6; 193
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-6); Over
MLB
Colorado at Milwaukee
The Brewers look to bounce back from yesterday's loss in the opener and build on their 8-3 record in their last 11 games as a home favorite. Milwaukee is the pick (-140) according to Dunkel, which has the Brewers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-140)
Game 951-952: San Franciso at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 15.207; Houston (Rodriguez) 14.147
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+120); Over
Game 953-954: Colorado at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Smith) 14.364; Milwaukee (Wolf) 15.901
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-140); Over
Game 955-956: San Diego at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Young) 14.959; Arizona (Jackson) 16.404
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Arizona (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-165); Under
Game 957-958: Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Millwood) 15.042; Tampa Bay (Shields) 14.835
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+155); Over
Game 959-960: NY Yankees at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Burnett) 15.915; Boston (Lester) 17.346
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-140); Over
Game 961-962: Minnesota at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Blackburn) 15.963; LA Angels (Saunders) 17.663
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-125); Under
Game 963-964: Seattle at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Snell) 15.036; Oakland (Braden) 15.726
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-140); Over
NHL
New Jersey at Atlanta
The Thrashers look to take advantage of a New Jersey team that is coming off a 4-0 win at Carolina and is 2-12 in its last 14 games following a win. Atlanta is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Thrashers favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+120)
Game 51-52: New Jersey at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 11.067; Atlanta 11.736
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+120); Under
Game 53-54: NY Rangers at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.683; Buffalo 12.213
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-135); 5
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-135); Over
Game 55-56: Philadelphia at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 10.876; Toronto 12.255
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+110); Over
Game 57-58: Ottawa at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.308; Florida 11.048
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-140); 5
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-140); Over
Game 59-60: Montreal at NY Islanders
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.810; NY Islanders 13.118
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-135); 5
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+115); Over
Game 61-62: Carolina at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 10.249; Tampa Bay 11.774
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115); Under
Game 63-64: Washington at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 11.684; Pittsburgh 12.002
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 65-66: Chicago at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 11.972; Dallas 11.911
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-155); Under
Game 67-68: San Jose at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 10.820; Calgary 12.086
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-125); Over
Game 69-70: Los Angeles at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.663; Anaheim 11.957
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-115); Over
Game 71-72: Colorado at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 10.863; Vancouver 12.176
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Marc Lawrence
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
When the Red Sox host the defending champion Yankees in Game Two of this season opening series they will send Jon Lester to the hill against A. J. Burnett knowing Lester had a sharp 3.12 ERA in spring camp this season. On the flip side, Burnett struggled posting a 5.12 ERA. in addition, Burnett is 0-3 with a sky-high 14.24 ERA in his last three team starts at Fenway Park. With that we'll back the Bosox and fade the Pinstripes once again here tonight.
Cajun Sports
Golden State Warriors vs. Washington Wizards
Play: Golden State Warriors -2
The Verizon Center will be the site of tonight’s matchup between the host Wizards and the visiting Warriors with tipoff set for 7:05PM Eastern Time. The Wizards were able to halt a nine-game home losing skid with a win over the hapless New Jersey Nets. Tonight is a good night to start a new streak against a Warriors club that has cashed ten of their last fourteen against the number. Golden State is riding a two-game win streak and with a win tonight could move their head coach into a tie with Lenny Wilkens on the all-time win list. The final weeks of the regular season wind down and Washington has long since tossed the proverbial towel on the season which they obviously had little say in the fact they are horrible. A check of the database reveals two league-wide systems that are active for tonight’s contest. We want to Play ON NBA road favorites with one day of rest off a road SU win as an underdog of five or more points versus a team off a SU win, these teams are 15-3 ATS their last 18. Play ON NBA road favorites off road underdog win where they were plus five or more points facing a team off a SU/ATS win of less than ten points and the total of tonight’s game is 180 or more, these teams are 17-9 ATS their last 26. Lay the short price with the visitors as the Warriors grab the SU and ATS victory at the Verizon Center on Tuesday night.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Golden State Warriors 114 Washington Wizards 105
Craig Trapp
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Utah Jazz
Play: Over 210
All the stars are aligned for a super high scoring game on Tuesday. These two have played a bunch of overs lately going 7-3 L10 played. Last game played these two scored 119-111 as OKC won at home. OKC has played four straight overs scoring 110 average in that time period. UTAH has not been playing quite as many overs but its not because of their scoring as the last 5 they have averaged 208 pts. Tonight we see Durant vs Williams as they both go for 30 and the offensive fireworks will be something to amaze. Easy over!!
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Ottawa Senators @ Florida Panthers
PICK: Ottawa Senators -135
With so few games remaining in the season, I throw ATS stats out the window and focus primarily on motivational factors; for a number of different reasons I believe the value in this particular contest is on the Ottawa Senators:
Florida was mathematically eliminated from playoff contention with its 4-1 loss to the Rangers on Saturday.
It fell apart in the third, allowing four goals and lost for the fifth time in six games.
Putting the "biscuit in the basket" has been an issue for the Panthers all year; they've been held to two goals or less in each of their last six contests with their forwards failing to score in the last two.
Finding motivation to play competitively in their remaining games will be an issue for the Panthers until the end of the season.
On the other side of the ice: Daniel Alfredsson will play his 1000th game tonight; after missing the post-season a year ago, the Sens have clinched a spot in this years playoffs, but a point tonight will lock them into at least the fifth position in the East.
Bottom line: Coming off a listless 4-1 loss to the Isles on Saturday, I expect this team to refocus; “We don’t want to relax just because we’re in a spot,” center Mike Fisher said. “We’ve had a good run and we’ll be ready and regroup.”
With a first round matchup against either the Penguins or Devils, finishing the season strong and playing at a high level as it heads into the playoffs is obviously crucial for this teams success.
I expect OTTAWA to take advantage of this situation.
Jim Feist
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Chicago Bulls
Play: Milwaukee Bucks +6
Milwaukee has been on a tear, both straight up and against the number, playing tough defense. This team is 5-0 ATS the last five games, plus an 18-5-1 ATS run. They take on a Chicago team that needs to win, just a shade behind the Toronto Raptors for the final playoff spot in the East. However, the Bucks are also motivated, tied with Miami for the No. 5 seed. In what should be a slowed paced, defensive game with so much at stake, look for a close one, meaning the value is all with the dog. Play the Bucks.
Great Lakes Sports
Toronto at Cleveland
Play: Cleveland
The Cleveland Cavaliers are a very solid 5-2 ATS when playing in their last seven games vs the Atlantic Division, and the Cleveland Cavaliers are a very nice 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings vs the Toronto Raptors in this series. The Toronto Raptors are a horrible 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Central Division, and the favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series. We look for the Cleveland Cavaliers to dismantle the Toronto Raptors and grab the home ATS Win&Cover tonight. TAKE: Cleveland Cavaliers
MTi Sports
Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Colorado Rockies
The Rockies are 15-3 since June 16, 2007 after a win in which they allowed 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1215, 21-11 since July 17, 2007 on the road after a win in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $1530 and 22-10 since September 12, 2007 on the road when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1610. The Rockies are the play.
Matt Fargo
San Antonio Spurs vs. Sacramento Kings
Play: Sacramento Kings +6
Sacramento is on a losing streak of seven straight games and it is just 3-13 in its last 16 games but the recent stretch has been a tough one as six of the last eight games have been on the road. Prior to that, the Kings went 4-4 at home where they are 17-20 on the season. That record is far from stellar and they have been pretty unsuccessful for the most part as home underdogs but the situation here is definitely in their favor based on the opponent and the spot it is in. San Antonio enters this game on a bit of a roll, winning three straight games including back-to-back victories over two of the top teams in the league, the Magic and the Lakers. With a game at Phoenix on tap for tomorrow night, this is a difficult sandwich situation for the Spurs. San Antonio is a game over .500 on the road but like a lot of teams in the league, it plays up and down to the competition, going 11-8 ATS against teams with a winning record and 7-9 ATS against teams with a losing record. The Spurs are 17-20 ATS overall on the road including an 8-11 ATS mark as a road chalk. San Antonio has clearly dominated this series with an 8-0 record over the last eight meetings but it is just 4-3-1 ATS in those games which shows a lot of overvalue. The winning streak includes four wins in Sacramento however the Kings are 3-1 ATS in those games with the lone loss against the number coming in November 2008 when they were actually favored. The Spurs wins at Arco Arena have been by 3, 2, 3 and 2 points so needless to say, the games have been extremely tight. Going back further the Kings are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings at home. Injuries have been a problem for San Antonio this season. The Spurs are still without point guard Tony Parker and his replacement, George Hill, gave the Kings plenty of problems in his last Arco visit but Hill is out as well with an ankle injury for at least two games. San Antonio is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games as a road favorite as well as 1-4 ATS in its last five road games against teams with a losing home record. The Kings meanwhile are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog of 5.0 to 10.5 points and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage greater than .600. 3* Sacramento Kings
Steve Merril
Seattle at Oakland
Pick: Seattle +120
Seattle continues their series with the Athletics in Oakland on Tuesday night. The Mariners turn to Ian Snell who went 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA from August 15th to the end of last season. Snell also went 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in two starts against the A's last season giving up just three earned runs in 11 innings of work. Oakland is hitting .208 off the righty with Kevin Kouzmanoff (0-7), Mark Ellis (0-6), Ryan Sweeney (0-6), Eric Patterson (0-5) and Cliff Pennington (0-3) looking for their first hits against him.
Oakland’s Dallas Braden isn’t exactly entering this game in good form coming off an outing where he gave up 7 runs and 12 hits in 5.1 innings of work. And of the reasons for Braden’s struggles is because he is dealing with a foot issue that numbs his left foot. The lefty is 1-1 with a 6.46 ERA and a WHIP of 1.76 in three starts against Seattle. Chone Figgins (7-13), Ichiro (3-10), Rob Johnson (1-3) and Casey Kotchman (2-2) all have good numbers against Braden.
Jimmy the Moose
Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks
Play: Boston Celtics -6
The Celtics have lost 3 of their last 4 SU but a game against the Knicks will be just what the doctor ordered. In their last 4 road games vs. a team with a SU losing home record Boston is 4-0 ATS. In their last 8 games vs. a team with a SU losing record the Celtics are 6-2 at the window. The Celtics are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite. They are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team from the Eastern Conference and 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team from the Atlantic Division.
The 27-49 SU New York Knicks are just playing out the stretch and looking forward to the free agency period this summer. New York has lost 4 of their last 5 games SU and are 2-3 ATS. In their last 29 games following an ATS win the Knicks are 8-21 ATS. New York is 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games vs. an opponent that is coming off a game where they scored 100 or more points.
The Celtics are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 trips to New York. In the last 13 meetings between the clubs Boston is a profitable 9-3-1 at the window. Look for the Celtics to easily take this one as well.
Play on the Boston Celtics -
Bryan Leonard
Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels -130
The Twins struggles in Anaheim continued last night in a 6-3 Angels victory. Minnesota is now 3-9 their last 12 visits to "The Big A". They are now just 20-33 overall the last few seasons to the Angels. Tonight they send recently overpaid Nick Blackburn to the hill and he has really had problems against this Angel offense. The last four times the righty has faced Los Angeles the Angels scored 11, 11, 9 and 7 runs. Last year alone the Halos batted .361 with 26 hits in only 15 1/3 innings of work against Blackburn.
Joe Saunders battled through injuries last season and still performed reasonably well. Now fully healthy we expect him to look more like his 2008 version which took the league by storm.
Many people are discounting the Angels this year based on off-season moves but we really like this team. They play the game the same way as the Twins but don't have the star power of Morneau and Mauer. This is a cheap number to lay against a Minnesota squad who has had real problems winning in this building.
EZWINNERS
Washington Wizards +2.5
Washington had been playing some very bad basketball before their win against the Nets in their last game, but Golden State should never be favored on the road against any NBA team in my opinion. The Warriors are 6-31 on the road this season and have already dropped a home game to the Wizards this season. Washington's win against New Jersey in their last game was the first time the Wizards have scored at least 100 points since February 26. Scoring 100 points is a key for Washington as they are 16-7 against the spread in the twenty three games that they have reached the century mark. With the defense (or lack of) that Golden State plays I expect the Wizards to pick up where they left off against New Jersey. Take the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Francisco +1.22 over HOUSTON
To start the season the winner of the first game has a psychological edge in the second game and you can double that for a team that is predicted to be rotten like the Astros. That first win is sometimes the most difficult one. The big problem for the Giants over the past few years has been offense or a lack thereof. However, there’s a good chance they’ll show quite a bit more pop this season with the addition of Aubrey Huff, a guy who can put up solid numbers when he knows he’ll be penciled in every day. Aaron Rowand, Jose Uribe, Mark DeRosa and Bengie Molina are all capable of producing more and Pablo Sandoval is the real deal at third. The Giants pounded out 10 hits yesterday and that has to boost the confidence of the offense. The Astros on the other hand started the season with Lance Berkman on the rack, Jose Feliz, a 35-year old 3rd baseman who’s offensive numbers keep declining and a very average second baseman by the name of Kazuo Matsui. Wandy has been very reliable over the past couple of years but he had a brutal spring and his confidence could be shot. He never pitched more than four innings this spring and he closed by allowing 17 earned runs over 10.1 innings in his last three games. Overall in the spring, Rodriguez allowed 34 hits in 19 innings and his ERA was an alarming 12.10. It’s anyone’s guess as to how Barry Zito will pitch. It’s simply impossible to predict, as he could get rocked on any given day or he can go a solid six. Anyway, this choice is more about playing on the Giants against the Astros plus a tag as oppose to playing pitcher vs pitcher, although Rodriguez was brutally awful in the spring. Play: San Francisco +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
NY Rangers +1.04 over BUFFALO
Is there a more determined team to get into the playoff right now then the Rangers? I don’t think there is. This team has won three straight and they’ve been very impressive in doing so, outscoring its opponents 13-4. You can’t help but like the fact that the Rangers are scoring goals and they get great goaltending from and that combo is a deadly one. Meanwhile, the Sabres are coming off back-to-back losses to the Leafs and Canadiens in which they scored just two goals combined. They beat the Bruins recently but were badly outplayed in that one and as a result they should have three losses in its last four. It would appear as though the Sabres are content to just end the season already and start the playoffs. They’re pretty much a lock to win their division, as they sit five points ahead of the Sens with just three games left for Ottawa. So, what we’re getting here is a very determined club, plus a small tag, that’s playing great against a team that is in relax mode. Play: N.Y. Rangers +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
Carolina +1.03 over TAMPA BAY
The only interesting thing left for the Lightning is where they’ll draft and whether or not Steven Stamkos scores 50. With a building that will be three-quarters empty, nothing to play for and laying juice, the Lightning are unappealing at best. Also, Antero Nittymaki is a guy that has to be tremendously focused to have a shot at a good game and that’s unlikely. Nittymaki can be brutally awful and that should be a huge concern for anyone considering laying the small number. Meanwhile, the Canes have not lost in regulation on the road in seven straight games. Cam Ward is one of the best and he’s playing like it. I love this guy, as he’s one of the rare, stand-up goaltenders in the league when most of them are flopping around like a fish out of water. Tampa has scored five goals in its last four games and while the Canes are playing for nothing also, they’ve been playing solid hockey for the better part of two months and they’re not showing any signs of letting up. Play: Carolina +1.03 (Risking 2 units).
FLORIDA +1.23 over Ottawa
Speaking of teams that are not going anywhere in terms of the standings and one need not look further than the Sens. This team is firmly situated in fifth place in the East, six points behind the Penguins and five points ahead of the Habs. In other words, they’re going to finish in fifth with no chance of finishing higher or lower. Now they’ll make a two-game trip to Florida just before the playoffs begin and one must wonder what the Sens motivation will be. They’re coming off a 4-1 loss to the Islanders after a six game winning streak, which ultimately solidified its place in the standings. The Panthers are not playing well but you can almost always expect an effort from them and this one should be no different. This choice is predicated on the fact that the Sens might very well show up in body only and that makes them very vulnerable in this spot. Play: Florida +1.23 (Risking 2 units).