Tom Stryker
GOLDEN STATE (-) over Washington
Golden State head coach Don Nelson is one victory away from breaking the NBA record for all-time wins. The Warriors aren't the best team in the league (23-53 SU) so, if Nelly wants to pass Lenny Wilkens and take over the top spot, State needs to knock off Washington today or Minnesota tomorrow. After those two games, the task will become more difficult against the Clippers, Thunder, Jazz and Trailblazers!
Washington is really the ideal spot for Golden State to pick up Coach Nelson's record-breaking victory. At home against teams from the Western Conference, the Wizards have lost their magic posting a soft 103-156 ATS record including a dismal 41-69 ATS in this role coming off a straight up win. With those two parameters applied and Washington sporting a won/loss percentage of .350 or less, this team trend crashes to a nasty 9-23 ATS!
The Warriors will take the floor with plenty of emotion tonight and that will help our cause. If winning for Coach Nelson isn't enough, Golden State can think back to December 18th, 2009. That's when Washington (+3) strolled into California and upset the Warriors 118-109!
Technically speaking, as a guest facing a foe that sports a won/loss percentage less than .333, State has been golden notching a strong 20-7 SU and 18-8-1 ATS record. The Warriors aren't going tot he playoffs. The least this team can do is bring Coach Nelson the victory he needs to break the record! Take Golden State.
Nelly
Oklahoma City + over Utah
Utah enters this game off a loss in Los Angeles and the Jazz return home where they are 31-8 S/U this season. The Thunder has been an outstanding road team with a 23-15 record S/U and a 25-13 ATS mark. Statistically the Thunder is the superior defensive team in this match-up and Oklahoma City has owned this match-up, winning S/U in all three meetings this season. Oklahoma City is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings in Utah and the Thunder have now won six of the last seven games overall. Oklahoma City is going to be a dangerous team in the playoffs and the Thunder are looking to improve their position with a big win Tuesday night. While the Thunder is on the road here they were off on Monday and have been a very successful ATS with at least one day of rest. The Jazz attract a lot of attention at home but this match-up has proved exceptionally favorable for Oklahoma City and another upset win could be on the way.
VEGAS EXPERTS
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox
The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox return to action tonight, two days after Boston rallied and stunned the Pinstripes in the season opener, 9-7. Boston is a small home favorite once again tonight, this time with Jon Lester on the hill. Lester loves pitching here in Fenway, and he’s amassed a 27-6 team start record in his last 33 home starts. And those numbers slightly improve when he’s installed as a home favorite, winning 25 of his last 30 starts in that situation. We’ll back the Red Sox to get to Burnett early, and cruise to an easy win!
Rocketman Sports
New Jersey Devils vs. Atlanta Thrashers
Play: New Jersey -130
New Jersey is 30-10 last 3 years and 11-2 this year after 3 or more consecutive unders. New Jersey is 5-0 SU and ATS at Atlanta the past 3 years. Devils are 13-5 in their last 18 vs. Southeast. Devils are 42-20 in their last 62 vs. a team with a losing record. Thrashers are 5-11 in their last 16 games as a home underdog. Thrashers are 3-7 in their last 10 home games. Thrashers are 6-15 in their last 21 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Thrashers are 10-25 in their last 35 games as an underdog. Thrashers are 2-5 in their last 7 overall. Thrashers are 2-5 in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest. Thrashers are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference. Thrashers are 2-6 in their last 8 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Thrashers are 5-16 in their last 21 vs. a team with a winning record. Thrashers are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Devils are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta. Devils are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings. Road team is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on New Jersey tonight!
Wunderdog Sports
Montreal vs. New York
Play: Over 5
The Montreal Canadiens have allowed 3 goals or more in 11 of their last 19 games played on the road. The Islanders have suddenly gotten hot on the offensive end, scoring 3 or more in each of their last five games. That would lend credibility to scoring 3+ in this one. The Islanders, off of two days rest, have been at their offensive best leading to a 6-1 mark to the OVER in their last seven in this situation. Montreal has only stayed under the total once in their last seven as a road favorite. I like this one to go OVER the total.
Tom Freese
San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs
Sacramento is just playing out the string. Tyreke Evans score 20 points a game. Beno Udrih scores 12.9 points a game Center Jason Thompson scores 12.5 points and 8.3 rebounds a game. The Kings score 99.8 points a game and they allow 104.2 points a game. Sacramento is 0-6 ATS their last 6 games as home dogs and they are 2-9-1 ATS when playing with two days of rest. San Antonio is led in scoring by Center Tim Duncan and his 18.1 points and 10.8 rebounds a game. Guard Manu Ginobili scores 16.6 points a game George Hill is filling in for the injured Tony Parker. Richard Jefferson scores 12.3 points a game. The Spurs 101.2 points a game and they allow 96 points a game. San Antonio is 10-1 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game and they are 9-1 ATS their last 10 games vs. Western Conference teams. PLAY ON SAN ANTONIO -
LARRY NESS
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays -175
The Orioles and Rays meet tonight in Tampa Bay, the last two teams to open the 2010 MLB season. The Rays are hoping the team's ML-best 20-8-2 record in the Spring is a good sign. Fans will point out that two seasons ago, the Rays used a ML-best exhibition record as a 'springboard' to the club's 2008 appearance in the World Series. However, the reality is that with both the Yankees (finished 19 game ahead of TB) and the Red Sox (finished 11 games clear of TB) in the AL East, the Rays are no better than long shots to be playing after the first few days of October. As for the Orioles, the team's pennant hopes figure to be all but over by Memorial Day. Kevin Millwood, in his 14th season, makes his 7th Opening Day start for Baltimore. The Orioles are his fifth team and while Millwood is a solid starter, he's never matched his twin 18-win seasons with the Braves (1999 and 2002) since leaving Atlanta for riches of free agency. He joins Baltimore after four years with the Rangers and is considered the 'ace' of a staff which owned MLB's highest ERA in 2009 at 5.16 ERA (good luck). James Shields makes his third straight Opening Day start for the Rays and while he's off a disappointg 2009 season (11-12, 4.14 ERA), I expect him to return to form this year. The Rays went 32-16 in his home starts from 2006-08 and Tampa's home mark of 109-53 the last two seasons. is MLB's second-best record. Baltimore was just 25-56 away from home last season, in keeping with the team's pathetic 120-204 (.370) road mark the last four seasons. Take the Rays.
BIG AL
Atlanta @ Charlotte Bobcats
Pick: Charlotte Bobcats -4.5
These two division rivals have met three times this season, with the home team winning every game thus far. Indeed, in the earlier meeting in Charlotte, the Bobcats blew out the Hawks by 20 points, 103-83. Tonight, the edge once again goes to Charlotte, as Atlanta will be playing without leading scorer Joe Johnson (21.2 ppg). Charlotte's Stephen Jackson, meanwhile, is banged up, but has been upgraded to "probable." The Bobcats do come into this game off a loss at Chicago on Saturday, but in their franchise history, are a super 43-27 ATS at home off a loss vs. a foe off a win (Atlanta won over Detroit on Saturday). With the Bobcats only three games ahead of the Bulls in the fight for the final playoff spots, look for Charlotte to take care of business vs. Atlanta tonight. Lay the points.
Jack Jones
San Antonio Spurs -6
The Spurs are still fighting for playoff seeding in the Western Conference, and this team is plaing their best basketball of the season over the last month. Sacramento has nothing to play for as we near the end of the season. The Spurs are 15-5 in their last 20 games overall, with recent wins over the likes of Boston, Orlando and the L.A. Lakers. San Antonio is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Manu Ginobli is playing as good as anyone in the league, and his teammates are feeding off his play. Ginobili had 32 points versus the Lakers after posting a season-high 43 in a 112-100 win over Orlando on Friday night. He has averaged 25.5 points over his last 15 games.
The Spurs are 20-10 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season. Sacramento is just 6-16 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Spurs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. Western Conference. San Antonio is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. The Kings are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 2 days rest. The Kings are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog. There's no question we'll get max effort out of the Spurs tonight with what's at stake, while Sacramento likley won't show up after losing 7 straight games, all by 7 points or more. Roll with the Spurs.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Milwaukee Bucks +6.5
I know the Bucks will be without Andrew Bogut for the rest of the season, but I think odds makers have over figured his absence into this line. Milwaukee will be extremely motivated tonight as it can clinch a postseason berth with a win. The Bulls will be motivated to win as well, as they are trying to play their way into the No. 8 seed. With this in mind, I expect another down to the wire game from these two teams. The first three meetings this season have all been decided by 3 or fewer points. The Bucks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Milwaukee is also 16-4 ATS versus poor defensive teams allowing 99 or more points per game, 2nd half of the season this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 102.7 to 95.5. Not having Bogut in the playoffs will prove costly, but I expect the Bucks to rally in his absence and take the Bulls right down to the wire tonight. Bet the Bucks.
Dave Cokin
Warriors at Wizards
Both Golden State is well coached and one of those non-playoff teams that is NOT packing it in, on a 3-1 SU/ATS run. They won twice as a dog, winning at Toronto and at the Clippers. The Warriors can score, and they face a Washington team that can’t because of injuries, scoring under 100 points in 19 of the last 20 games. They’ve also been money burners during that time, especially at home (1-4 ATS the last 5 home games). Play the Warriors!
John Ryan
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox -138
3* graded play on Boston as they host the rival Yankees starting at 7:10 Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Red Sox will win this game easily. We also like a 3* on the run line as well. Simply stated, Burnett did not pitch well in Spring training while Lester looks to be back to top form. Burnett is also just 4-21 (-15.5 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +150 since 1997. I think you all must remember the public confrontation between Burnett and Posada last August in Fenway. Posada claims this is all behind them, but we certainly disagree. once confidence and trust is lost in any relationship it is nearly impossible to reagin what once might have been. Lester is in far better form and went 15-8 with a 3.41 ERA while finishing third in the AL with a career-high 225 strikeouts. He was superb in his final six home starts, winning four while posting a 1.93 ERA. Lester is 3-1 with a 3.88 ERA in eight starts against the Yankees. Boston won Sunday night in come from behind fashion and was also a 7* Titan winner. The day off is very good news for the Sox as they are 14-3 (+11.2 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons. Take Boston for 3* amount and also on the run line.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Utah Jazz -6
Odds makers have made the Jazz this large of a favorite against a team that has defeated them in all 3 prior meetings this season for a reason. And here it is: home favorites who have lost 3 straight times to an opponent, if that favorite and its opponent are both good teams with winning percentages between 60 and 75%, are an incredible 75-36 ATS the last 14 years. During this span, the team playing with triple revenge is winning by an average of 7.6 points so I'd say the Jazz are worth a spin here. Lay the points.
Black Widow
1* on Utah Jazz -5.5
The Utah Jazz have had 3 days' rest since losing to the Lakers on the road back on Friday. The extra time they've had to prepare for the Oklahoma City Thunder will pay major dividends tonight, and we fully expect Utah to cruise at home. Utah comes into this game extremely motivated to avoid getting swept by the Thunder this season. The Jazz have lost all 3 of their meetings with OKC this year, so there's no question they are going to come out with a chip on their shoulders Tuesday. Utah is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) as a home favorite this season, winning by 10.3 points/game. This is a Utah team that plays well on rest. The Jazz are 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home games when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 3 seasons. This is also a team that bounces back from losses as well as anyone in the league. Utah is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a road loss by 10 points or more this season. This game really sets up for a blowout in the Jazz' favor tonight. Take Utah and lay the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Sacramento Kings +7
Look for the Spurs to come out flat tonight after a huge win over the Lakers to clinch a playoff berth. On top of that, San Antonio will be hurting at the point guard position with Tony Parker and George Hill both out. This is a team that depends on a lot of scoring from the point guard position so with both of those guys out I look for the Kings to keep this one close. And that shouldn't be much of a problem considering that Sacramento has either won, or lost by 3 or fewer points, in 5 straight home games against the Spurs. Take the points.