Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, April 8

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Texas at Boston
The Rangers (3-4) look to bounce back from last night's 5-1 loss to Boston (3-4) in the opener of the series and come into tonight's contest with an 8-0 record in Martin Perez' last 8 starts against a team with a losing record. Texas is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Texas (+120)

Game 901-902: Arizona at San Francisco (4:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Cahill) 15.590; San Francisco (Hudson) 14.545
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+135); Over

Game 903-904: Miami at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Alvarez) 15.347; Washington (Gonzalez) 16.901
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Washington (-185); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-185); Under

Game 905-906: NY Mets at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Colon) 15.452; Atlanta (Harang) 14.523
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+120); Over

Game 907-908: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 15.775; Cubs (Jackson) 14.115
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-130); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-130); N/A

Game 909-910: Cincinnati at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 15.545; St. Louis (Lynn) 14.610
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+120); Over

Game 911-912: Baltimore at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Chen) 15.444; NY Yankees (Nova) 17.049
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-140); Under

Game 913-914: Texas at Boston (6:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Perez) 16.254; Boston (Doubront) 15.149
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+120); Over

Game 915-916: Houston at Toronto (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Oberholtzer) 12.701; Toronto (Buehrle) 14.698
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-170); Under

Game 917-918: Tampa Bay at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Archer) 16.433; Kansas City (Ventura) 14.996
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115); Under

Game 919-920: LA Angels at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santiago) 15.798; Seattle (Paxton) 14.609
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+110); Over

Game 921-922: San Diego at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Ross) 13.833; Cleveland (Kluber) 15.229
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-145); Over

Game 923-924: Chicago White Sox at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Qunitana) 14.929; Colorado (Morales) 13.908
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Colorado (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+105); Over

Game 925-926: Detroit at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 17.026; LA Dodgers (Haren) 15.508
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-130); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-130); Under

Game 927-928: Milwaukee at Philadelphia (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Lohse) 16.818; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 14.511
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-105); Over

Rob Vinciletti

Brewers vs. Phillies
Play: Over 8.5

This game fits a powerful 25-3 totals system that plays over for home teams like the Phillies that are off a road favored loss by 5 or more runs, if they scored 4 or less runs and are playing an opponent off a win and had 1 or less errors. These game average over 12 runs per game. The Phillies have played over the last 5 times as a home favorite off a road loss by 2 or more runs and are averaging over 6 runs vs right handers thus far. The Brewers are averaging over 5 runs per game on the road. In the series here 5 of the last have played over the total. Kyle Lohse makes the start for the Brewers and he has pitched over in 3 of his last 4 road starts and 4 of 6 here in Philly. K.Kendrick foes for the Phillies and he has flown over in his last 3 home April Starts and 4 of his last 5 home starts vs Milwaukee. Look for this game to go over the total today.

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Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles DodgersFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Los Angeles DodgersFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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If you believe the oddsmakers in Vegas this should be a prelim to this year's World Series matchup at the end of the season. The Dodgers send Dan Haren to the hill against last year's Cy Young winner, Max Scherzer, with the Dodges in a rare home dog role this evening. With Haren 5-1 in his career home team starts against the Bengals, and Scherzer 1-4 in his five career teams starts against the Dodgers, we'll remain true blue with the hosts as the Tigers fall to 3-7 in their last ten games in this park here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Dodgers.

Scott Spreitzer

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Sacramento Kings
Play: Oklahoma City Thunder -8

Yes, OKC has a date with the Clippers in Los Angeles next. But the Thunder are heading to Sacto off of back-to-back losses to Houston & Phoenix, which followed a big win over the San Antonio Spurs. Because of the two straight losses, because their lead over the Clippers in the Western Conference standings is getting too close for comfort, I expect a focused effort from the Thunder even if Russell Westbrook is sidelined - and he's listed as doubtful as I release this play. Sacto is struggling against teams that are virtually in the playoffs or fighting for playoff contention, losing six straight outright, while averaging just 86.5 ppg. It's a tough spot against a Thunder team that's 15-4 SU (13-6 ATS) the last 19 times off back-to-back losses (4-1 SU/ATS this season). OKC beat the Kings 94-81 at home on March 28. While this meeting is on the road I expect similar results. I'm recommending a play on the Thunder minus the points on Tuesday.

Art Aronson

Detroit Pistons vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: Atlanta Hawks -6½

The Hawks need to continue to win to guarantee their spot in the playoffs and I think they get it done here easily versus a bad road team in the Detroit Pistons. Detroit earned a 115-111 win at home over the lowly Bucks in its last game thanks in large part to Rodney Stucky’s 26 points off the bench. Detroit has been just brutal on the road to end the season though, dropping 16 of 17 while allowing 110.8 points per game. Atlanta is 17-3 at home this season when scoring more than 100 and is off back to back wins over Cleveland at home and Indiana on the road. Jeff Teague continues to be the driving force for Atlanta as he scored 25 points in the win over the Pacers. The Hawks would shoot over 50 percent for a second straight game and should have a good shot here at keeping it up against a Pistons team that has little to play for. Atlanta is a strong 11-2 ATS when coming off a win by 10 points or more this season. Atlanta comes in looking to revenge a loss at Detroit the last time these teams met back on February 21. Good news here for Hawks’ backers is that the team has certainly taken care of business against the Pistons at home, winning 10 in a row in the series while yielding just 91.0 points per game. Detroit's last win in Atlanta was in 2008. Consider laying the points.

Andre Ramirez

Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays -175

The Blue Jays will be sending Buehrle to the mound today. The Southpaw threw 8 2/3 innings of scoreless ball Wednesday at Tampa Bay, striking out 11 while walking only one in a 3-0 victory. Buehrle is 3-0 with a .72 ERA in the regular season against the Astros. The Astros will be sending Brett Oberholtzer, who allowed 3 runs over 5 2/3 innings Thursday in a 4-2 loss to the Yankees. The Astros have never been a good road team. They are 6-22 as a road underdog, when the line is +150 to +175. Take the Blue Jays for today's winner.

Ray Monohan

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals +105

Kansas City is throwing Yordana Ventura out there for his first start of the season. He was supposed to start last week against Detroit but rain scuttled that so there is a lot of anticipation for this flamethrower to get started. As long as he can harness his emotions he should have some success against this Rays lineup lacking an intimidating lefty swinger. Look for a dominant 6 innings followed up by some great bullpen support.

Jim Feist

Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers
Pick: Los Angeles Lakers

The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these teams and the home team tonight is a big underdog. Houston is a road favorite, but not healthy without center Dwight Howard (ankle). They come off an OT win at home over Denver, 130-125, allowing 48% shooting and 14-of-31 three pointers (45%)! The Rockets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. They are also without points guard Pat Beverley and rookie Isaiah Canaan is getting minutes with Aaron Brooks traded and while Beverley is out hurt. This is not a great defensive team and the Rockets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games. The Lakers like to run and have plenty of offensive punch, 12th in scoring. LA has a day off coming up but Houston has to play at Denver tomorrow, so grab the home dog against the banged up visitors.

River City Sharps

Mavericks / Jazz Over 199.5

We have this game pegged at 210 for the total, so we think there is some value here tonight going over the posted total of 199.5. Last five games, the Mavericks are averaging 107.2 ppg and while Utah's offense has struggled at times this season, Dallas also doesn't put up a ton of resistance on the defensive end. Both teams are off one night's rest, so we think you will see a good effort from both. Eric Lewis on the referee assignment tonight, who is an OVER machine!

Jesse Schule

Houston vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto

The Houston Astros have been terrible for quite some time, setting records for futility in recent seasons. They were a major league worst 51-111 last season, but there are reasons to be optimistic about an improvement this season.

Tonight's game in Toronto though is not a good spot to back the dog, as they are up against veteran lefty Mark Buehrle, who was dealing in his season debut. Buehrle (1-0, 0.00 ERA) was just one out away from a complete game shutout against the Rays, striking out 11 in a 3-0 victory in Tampa.

He owned the Astros last year, going 2-0 with a 0.53 ERA in two starts. The southpaw was more effective at Rogers Center than he was on the road last year, finishing with a home record of 8-4 with a 3.36 ERA.

Houston will hand the ball to lefty Brett Oberholtzer, who took a loss in his season debut. The 24 year old allowed three runs on five hits over 5 2/3 innings in a 4-2 loss to the Yankees. The Astros bullpen hasn't done them any favors, and they surrendered four runs in the final three innings in a 9-1 loss to L.A. yesterday.

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Bryan Power

Miami vs. Washington
Pick: Washington

Pop quiz. Guess which team has - by far - the best run differential in MLB after one week. If you guessed the Miami Marlins, not only would you be right, but I'd be highly impressed....

Yet, the Fish are also one of only a handful of teams yet to play on the road. That all changes Tuesday as they visit the Nation's Capital to take on the NL East favorite Nationals. The Nats have started 4-2, just one-half game behind the Marlins, but that hasn't stopped the oddsmakers from making them nearly a 2:1 favorite on the money line for Tuesday's series opener. Really, I can't blame them.

Washington comes off a 2-1 win over Atlanta on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Marlins missed their chance at sweeping the Padres. Miami is hitting much better so far compared to last year. But in this series they will be going up against the Nats three best pitchers. It starts tonight w/ southpaw Gio Gonzalez, who won all three starts against the Marlins last year while posting a 0.95 ERA. All-time, he has a 1.95 ERA vs. this particular division rival.

Overall, Miami really struggled against Washington in 2013. They lost 14 of 19 games including a 1-9 record here in D.C. Look for those struggles to continue early in 2014.

Chase Diamond

Baltimore vs. NY Yankees
Play: Baltimore +1½ -155

This early game in MLB features the 2-5 Orioles at the 4-3 Yankees. Boy the Orioles are not as bad as there 2-5 record and today we get some big value on the run line here. Wei-Yin Chen was lit up first time out this year by the Rays and I expect alot of motivation from him and the Orioles today. Ian Nova is just your average pitcher so we get a team in the Orioles who is just as good as the Yanks with a better starter and plus 1.5 take the Orioles plus the 1.5 for a winner.

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The Brewers are on a bit of a roll as they get their series with the Phillies underway. Milwaukee is off an impressive sweep of the Red Sox at Fenway, and it’s all systems go for this team as they continue this early season road trip.
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The 2013 Brewers were a study in inefficiency and lousy fundamentals. I can’t help but wonder how much of a distraction the whole Ryan Braun mess was for this team. Whether that was the issue is something we can’t know for sure, but there was little doubt for anyone who watched them regularly that they were simply not a mentally sharp team.
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That’s not the case so far this season. The Brewers have a dangerous lineup, they’re getting some very good pitching, and perhaps the biggest surprise is the bullpen, which has been excellent this far. I have to offer props to manager Ron Roenicke for the success of the bullpen. He actually used sorting training as a job decider. Incumbent closer Jim Henderson wasn’t sharp, and Roenicke didn’t wait for any blown regular season saves to make his move. Roenicke demoted Henderson in favor of old pro Francisco Rodriguez, and K-Rod has looked sharp and energized thus far.
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The Phillies are a team in transition, which is a nice way of saying they’re not very good. The lineup is going to occasionally explode, but it’s average at best and vulnerable to injury as well. I don’t have much faith in this team’s bullpen and the overall starting rotation is pretty ordinary behind Cliff Lee.
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Today’s matchup finds Kyle Lohse throwing the for the Brewers, while Kyle Kendrick draws home opener honors for the Phils. Kendrick has actually become a better than I thought he would ever be option for the Phillies. That’s not to say he’s anything more than an adequate innings eater, but he has definitely improved with experience. But Lohse is the better guy here and he flashed some serious swing and miss stuff in his 2014 debut. Lohse isn’t really a big K type, so that was a bit fluky. But he’s a solid and consistent pitcher and he’s also had some success against the lineup he’s likely going to see today.
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I’m seeing check marks right down the line next to Milwaukee when sizing up this battle. Lohse gets the nod over Kendrick, the currently strong Brewers pen owns a substantial late inning edge and I’ll side with the Brewers lineup ahead of the Phillies. No problem with the price, so the Brewers are today’s choice.

Larry Ness

Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers and Tigers have never met in the World Series but both are among the favorites to get there this year, after each team fell six games in LCS play to St Louis and Boston, respectively in 2013. The Tigers will open this series with reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer on the mound while the Dodgers will counter with the newly acquired Dan Haren. Scherzer and Haren were teammates in Arizona back in 2008 and 2009 but that was a different time in both of their careers. Haren won 30 games in those two seasons, posting ERAs of 3.33 and 3.14, but has had just ONE winning season since, while battling multiple injuries. As for Scherzer, he was 0-4 in 16 appearances (seven starts) in 2008 and then just 9-11 (4.12 ERA) in 2009, before developing into a star in Detroit, winning 15, 16 and 21 games the last three seasons.

Scherzer picked up where he left off following his American League Cy Young season of 2013, throwing eight shutout innings Wednesday in a 2-1 victory against the Kansas City Royals (he didn’t get a decision). However, for all the success he has had the last four seasons in Detroit, he was just 9-15 with the Arizona Diamondbacks in his first two major league seasons, including 5-10 in his career against the NL West. He was 1-3 against the Dodgers with a 4.45 ERA in five starts (team was 1-4, although he hasn’t faced Los Angeles since 2011.

Haren allowed only an unearned run over six innings in Wednesday's 5-1 victory at San Diego in his first start as a Dodger and now he'll make his home debut for LA, hoping to improve on his 4-0 mark and 2.45 ERA in his last five starts vs the Tigers. Grab the home dog in this one.