SC Live Dogs
Milwaukee Brewers -105
This Brewers team is playing some good baseball at this point in the season coming off of a three game sweep against the Boston Red Sox where they averaged 5.6 RPG and allowed just 2.6 RPG. Coming off of an off-day will also benefit the Brewers as they get an extra day to get situated in Philadelphia for Tuesdays day-game. The Brewers have played 4 day-games in this young season so far, where they have a record of 3-1. This Phillies team comes into Tuesdays game after a 2-3 series against the Cubs where they scored 12 runs and allowed 10 runs. The Brewers will be pitching Kyle Lohse who comes into Tuesdays start after allowed just 3 runs through 7 innings on 5 hits, 2 BBs & 8 Ks in his 2014 debut to the Braves. Lohse made a single start against the Phillies in 2013 where he got the W allowing 1 run through 8 innings on 4 hits, 1 BB & 6 Ks. Lohse last pitched IN Philadelphia in 2012 where he allowed 1 run through 7 innings on 4 hits, 2 BBs & 7 Ks. Kyle Kendrick will be on the bump for the Phillies who is also coming off of a nice 2014 debut against the Rangers. In that start, Kendrick allowed 1 run through 7 innings on 5 hits, 1 BB & 4 Ks. This Brewers team has a combined 73 ABs off of Kendrick where they have a .315 average with 2 HRs. There are two major factors that we consider when fading Kendrick in this game. In 2013, Kendrick saw his era rise from a 4.70 era to a 6.07 era when coming off of 5 Days of Rest which he will be coming in off of on Tuesday. Kendrick was also 0-4 with a 5.87 era during day-games in 2013. The bullpens of these two teams clearly give the Brewers the advantage where they carry a 1.02 era through 17 innings where they have allowed just 1 HR on 4 BBs & 20 Ks. On the road, the Brewers bullpen has a 0.00 era through 11 innings on 3 BBs & 12 Ks. On the other hand, the Phillies bullpen has a 4.02 era through 15 innings where they have allowed 12 BBs & 14 Ks. Play on the Brewers at -105.
Jimmy Boyd
Colorado Rockies -125
Colorado improved to 3-1 at home with a convincing 8-1 win over the White Sox on Monday and are showing great value as a relatively small priced favorite in Game 2 of the series. The Rockies are hitting .362 with 7 home runs and have now scored a total of 32 runs over their first four home games. A lot of their offensive success in 2014 has come against left-handed starters. Colorado is hitting .321 against southpaws this season and I look for them to add to that total against left-hander Jose Quintana tonight. White Sox are just 1-4 in Quintana's last 5 road starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Winning on the road has been a huge challenge for Chicago in interleague games. The White Sox have lost 9 of their last 11 away from home against the National League. They are also just 3-18 against the money line in their last 21 road games against a left-handed starter. Colorado will start LHP Franklin Morales, who despite not ever starting against Chicago, has not allowed a single run in 3 and 1/3 innings of relief versus the White Sox. Colorado is 5-0 in Morales' last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their last game and 4-1 in his last 5 starts versus a team with a losing record. Overall a great spot to jump on the Rockies at home!
Alex Smart
Kansas City Royals +105
Ventura KCs starting pitcher makes his season debut . The 22-year-old phenom has a fast ball that matches up with some of the hardest throwers in the history of MLB. The kid threw multiple pitches over 100 miles per hour in his first three appearances in the major leagues last season, striking out 11 in 15 1/3 innings. Thats not good news for a Tampa Bay team that has lost 7 straight games here in Kansas City. Im betting number 8 comes in this spot.
Royals are 9-3 in their last 12 vs. American League East.
Rays are 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
TJ Pemberton
Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz
Play: Dallas Mavericks -7½
Dallas will have to take advantage of their contest with this lowly club from Salt Lake City. The Mavericks enter the game 7.5 game favorites. Dallas should be able to cover this spread, led by the play of veteran superstar Dirk Nowitzki. Dallas has a done a decent job on the road (22-17) and on the contrary, Utah has been had in its own backyard (16-22). The sixth seed is not out of reach for Dallas, if they were to get hot as well. They are 1.5 games behind Golden State. However, it is a matter of pick your poison. The 6, 7 and 8 seeds will be facing arguably the three best teams in the NBA, in the first round of the playoffs: San Antonio, Oklahoma City and the Los Angeles Clippers. As we know, a seven game series with four road games against any of these franchises, is a very tall order.
Betting Trends:
Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Northwest.
Mavericks are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Utah.
Dennis Macklin
Chicago White Sox vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies -125
The WSox and Rockies have similar MO's in that they are basically .500 teams that are decent at home and not very good on the road. Chicago has lost four of five and is 1-3 with suitcase this year. They send Jose Quintana to the mound tonight. He was hammered by the Twins in his 2014 debut. The Rockies have won three of four, all at home, and shook a 7-28 three-year inter-league skid with their 8-1 win over the Pale Hose last night. Franklin Morales is your classic No.5 starter. He'll give you five innings giving up two or three runs and giving you a chance to win. The price is right so right back with the Rockies.
MLB Predictions
Brewers / Phillies Under 8.5
The Phillies home opener was pushed back to Tuesday due to rain in the forecast in Monday. This game will take place at 4:05PM EST, and will feature Kyle Lohse vs Kyle Kendrick on the mound. Lohse opened the season vs Atlanta taking a loss, although he pitched well going 7 innings giving up 5 hits and 3 earned runs. He struckout 8 in the game and walked just 2. Lohse owns a 2.98 ERA vs Philadelphia, and has a 3.26 ERA at Citizens Bank Park. Kyle Kendrick pitched well this spring with a 2.81 ERA, .220 OBA and 1.25 WHIP over 16 innings of work. That translated right into his first start where he went 7 innings allowing 5 hits and 1 earned run with 4 strikeouts and a walk vs the Rangers in Texas (facing a DH which he won't be Tuesday). The Brewers have opened the season with 5 of their first 6 games going UNDER the posted total. The Phillies have gone UNDER the total in 4 of their 6 games, and 4 of their last 5 overall. Note that the UNDER is 12-4 in Lohse's last 16 starts as an underdog and 15-5-1 in the Brewers last 21 road games dating back to last season. The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Kendrick's last 8 starts dating back to last season, and 4-1 in his last 5 starts vs the Brewers. I like how both pitchers looked in their first starts of the season and I like the higher total we're getting here Tuesday afternoon. Take the UNDER.
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 +111
I didn't really like the idea of betting another Astros game, but whatever I think will make us money. We may be some of the only people that have watched so many Houston games in this young season. When I saw Mark Buehrle was starting against the 'Stros it caught my attention, though. I think Buehrle will end up emerging as the Blue Jays top pitcher, and one one of the more reliable option in the majors. He looked great in spring training, yielding a 2.93 ERA and then turned it into a fantastic opening start in his first start of the regular season. Buehrle didn't allow any runs against the Tampa Bay Rays while striking out 11 batters. In addition, his WHIP stayed incredibly low at 0.53. The Rays have a capable offense, so that start is nothing to shrug off. The Astros will be flying all the way from Texas to Toronto after dropping 3 out of 4 from the Angels. At 3-4 the Astros have been playing above expectations, but I think it will be sooner rather than later their offense begins to look dreadful. Brett Oberholtzer is a fine pitcher, don't get me wrong, but I can see him struggling against some of the more offensive heavy lineups in MLB. I'll surely be on plenty of UNDER bets with him against struggling offenses, but the Blue Jays may be a tough out tonight. He could have been better in his first start against the Yankees, posting a 4.76 ERA in 5.2 innings pitched. The Jays have been hitting lefties better than right-handers thus far this season and should get enough to beat the Astros by more than a run. I like Buehrle to put forth another dominating performance at home, getting the Blue Jays back on track after losing to the Yankees on Sunday. I don't love this bet, but I like it. There isn't really anything that screamed at me on the card tonight, but I believe I am on the right side with this bet tonight, so I'll play it for 2 units.
Sammy P
Philadelphia at Florida
Play: Under 5.5
As we come upon the last 6 days of the NHL regular season, most of the "must win" teams are priced heavily with juice. I don't mind laying juice now and then as long as I feel I'm getting value. As most of my clients and followers know, I play the majority of my NHL totals Under and last night all three games easily cashed with a combined five goals scored in those games! Hockey is a difficult sport for the books since the totals can really only be one of three choices 5, 5.5, or 6. The amount of juice they attach to the total is where they try and make up for their deficiencies, but even then we find lots of value in say taking the Under 5.5 -145 instead of Under 5 +110. Five is such a key number that getting that hook when you have the Under is sometimes worth .50 to .60 cents in my opinion. Most professional handicappers would scoff at laying that kind of juice on a total, but in the NHL it is how I've grinded out profits for years.
With all that being said, we find lots of value in tonight's Flyers and Panthers Under. -125 is not a lot of juice when it comes to totals and I can see this juice rising to -135 by game time. I would play it up to -140. Florida has had a difficult time this season finding traction with their makeshift lineup. I give them a ton of credit since they fight hard and always give their top effort, but they just don't have the horses to compete in the NHL. Their roster is made up of a lot of guys who were playing in the AHL earlier this season. The good news for a team like the Panthers is they are a solid team to back Under the total late in the season when the youngsters are giving it their all and playing for a spot on the club next season. They have scored just 1.5 goals per game in their last ten (3-6-1 O/U). Philadelphia is in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race as it jostles for position and a better seed. They came up big with a 5-2 win Sunday night against the Buffalo Sabres, but before that game the offense of the Flyers had been sputtering along with just five goals in four straight loses. The play here tonight is definitely on the Under 5.5 at -125. But if you are worried about the juice or simply want a bit more action, I think you are safe in playing a parlay with the Flyers -175 and the Under 5.5 -125 (+180). I have this game playing as a 2-1 or 3-1 Philadelphia win.
Wunderdog
San Antonio vs Minnesota
Pick: San Antonio -7
The San Antonio Spurs always seem to be counted out, but then they swing back and continue to win. Right now they have emerged as the best team in the NBA, which means the 2014 NBA title will likely go through San Antonio. This team plays hard all the time, and seldom mails in a game. They will square off tonight vs. a Minnesota team that has once again disappointed, as the T-Wolves were expected to be a playoffs team this year, but never seemed to get over the top. Minnesota had an ugly resume over many years, leaving them as the NBA's worst home dog. San Antonio takes care of business on the road again, so play on the Spurs.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
SAN FRANCISCO -144 over Arizona: The Arizona Diamondbacks are not off to the kind of start they wanted and neither is Trevor Cahill, who has gone 0-2 with a 6.30 ERA in 2 starts this year and that after he posted a 6.95 ERA in spring training. Cahill is also just 1-2 with a 4.97 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Giants. Now on the other side we have Tim Hudson, who allowed 0 ERs on 3 hits in 7.2 innings of work in his first start of the year, which was vs these same Diamondbacks. Tim is now 8-1 with a 1.99 ERA in 12 career starts vs Arizona. let's also note that Tim is 70-29 with a 3.20 ERA in 136 career day starts. The Giants have averaged 5.71 rpg thus far, while the D-Backs have allowed 6.33 rpg in the early going, plus this is the Giants home opener. Just too many Giant advantages for the D-Backs to overcome here.
2 UNIT PLAYS
BOSTON -131 over Texas: I had the Sox yesterday and will come right back with them here. The Sox were an awesome home team last year, but have started out 1-3 at Fenway thus far and you can bet that this team is not happy about that. Their offense broke out a bit last night, while the Rangers offense continues to struggle, especially Fielder, who is hitting just .143 out the gate. Doubront has struggled with the Rangers in his career, but this is a weaker offense than he has faced in the past. I look for Boston to take game two here behind a solid outing from Doubront and another good showing from their offense.
Philadelphia/ Milwaukee Under 8.5 (-120): (Added) The Phils have had some problems scoring since they scored 14 runs in their opener vs Texas, as they have scored just 17 total run in their last 5 games since the outburst and today they will be without Utley, who has been their best hitter so far. Making matter worse for the Phils offense is the fact that Kyle Lohse has a 1.72 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Phillies. Kyle Kendrick started off well as he allowed just 1 ER in 7 innings in his first start of the year and that was after having a solid spring. He also has a 3.72 ERA in 5 career starts vs the Brewers, allowing more than 3 ER's just once in those games. The Brewers had a good showing offensively in Boston, but they have been sitting in Philly for two days now and may come out a bit flat here. I see 6 runs at most here.
Sam Martin
Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: Houston Rockets
We strongly considered giving out Houston as one of our premium selections tonight, and the only reason we didn't was because the Rockets have a quick return matchup against Denver on Thursday after just playing them on Sunday night. But that's not to say that we don't like Houston here against the Lakers - we certainly do and think they can win big against a disinterested LA squad.
Lakers have lost four games in a row - three of which came by double-digits - and the most recent defeat coming here in the Staples Center at the hands of the Clippers by a whopping 23-point margin. With just a few game remaining in the season there's really nothing for LA to play for here. Rockets have scored 111 and 130 point in their last two games - anything close to that type of offensive output should be more than enough to cover this number.
Jeff Alexander
Kansas City Royals +106
Royals are a value play in the underdog role at home where they have won 7 straight against the Rays. The Rays are 1-4 in Archer's last 5 starts as a road favorite while the Royals are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
Timothy Black
Pittsburgh vs. Chicago
Play: Under 7
The Under is 17-5-1 in the last 23 meetings between Pittsburgh and Chicago. Also, today's starters both show strong trends toward the Under with the Cubs posting a 4-0-1 record in Jackson's last 5 starts vs. the Pirates and the Under cashing with a 5-2-1 record in Morton's last 8 starts against the Cubs.
Dave Price
Washington Nationals -1.5 +128
The Nationals are showing value on the run line at this price because of the edge they have on the mound with Gio Gonzalez. He has an ERA of 1.76 and a WHIP of 0.902 is 6 career starts against the Marlins. He went 3-0 against Miami last season, allowing only 2 runs in 19 innings. Henderson Alvarez has an ERA of 4.42 and a WHIP of 1.573 in 4 career starts versus Washington, and his teams are 0-4 in these starts. The Marlins are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings overall and 5-16 in the last 21 meetings in Washington. Take the Nats on the run line.
Steve Janus
San Antonio Spurs -5.5
The Spurs will be playing without Tony Parker tonight, but I don't believe that will stop them from covering this spread. San Antonio has won both meetings against the Timberwolves this season, including a 18-point victory in the most recent matchup. While the Spurs will be without Parker, Minnesota is also dealing with several injuries. Starters Kevin Martin and Nikola Pekovic are both listed as doubtful. While both Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio are expected to play, both are dealing with nagging injuries.
With a win and an Oklahoma City loss, San Antonio will clinch the No. 1 seed in the West. While it's unlikely the Thunder will lose, it will put the Spurs that much closer to securing the top spot. Something they definitely want to do as soon as possible, so they can rest their aging stars before the playoffs.
Couple of key systems favoring San Antonio. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are connecting on 36% or better of their 3-point attempts are 46-19 (69%) ATS in the month of April over the last 5 seasons. We also see that road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who average fewer than 11 offensive rebounds are 46-19 (71%) in the month of April over the last 5 seasons.
Brandon Shively
Brooklyn Nets vs. Miami Heat
Play: Miami Heat-7
This is a bigger game for the Miami Heat than for Brooklyn. The Nets are 3-0 this year vs. the Heat and I can assure you that Lebron and Co. know this. So they will be looking to avoid the season sweep tonight and to make a statement at the same time. The Heat are atop the Eastern Conference standings and will want to stay there.
The Nets played at Miami on 3/12 and were a 9 point road dog and won the game straight up 96-95. LeBron had a bad game making 5 turnovers and only scoring 19 points. I look for Bron Bron to flex his muscles tonight and for the home crowd to ignite the Heat to a double digit win. With Ray Allen back in the lineup, I look for Allen and Battier to come off the bench and to rain an abundance of three point shots. Wade is also well-rested and this is a big game for the Heat tonight and they will not be denied.
I will refer to Brooklyn's 43.5% shooting on the road this season as well and will say this will not be good enough tonight. The Heat shoot 51.7% from the floor at home and they will matchup good with the Nets. Brooklyn has been relying on Paul Pierce to carry the load and he is getting tired.
The Heat are HEATING up now going 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games and they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on one day's rest. While Brooklyn has been on fire when playing at home, it should be noted that they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. The home team is now 6-2 ATS the last 8 meetings when these two tea ms collide and I love the value we are getting with the Miami Heat tonight. The Nets have a game vs. Orlando tomorrow. Once they start to get blown out tonight, HC Jason Kidd will pull his starters and let them get some rest for tomorrow's game. Miami play's @ Memphis tomorrow as well but I have seen time and time again when the Heat are playing with revenge, that they do not let off the gas. They not only play to win, but they play to COVER the SPREAD.
Pistons vs. Hawks
Play: Over 209
The Pistons come into this game tonight just wanting to get the season over with. They are a terrible defensive team and keep getting worse. The Pistons are giving up 112 ppg over their last 5 games. They don't defend the three point line and they also do not force turnovers. The Hawks come into this game playing with confidence after beating the Pacers on Sunday 107-88. The Hawks are a team that loves to shoot the three-point shot as everybody on the team can shoot it from downtown basically. The Hawks were on a 'Under' trend, but things have reversed for them as they are now on a 3-0 'OVER' Trend that I expect to continue after tonight's game. These two teams played back on 2/21 when the total was set at 211 and it went OVER by 11 points as Detroit won 115-107. The OVER is 4-1 the Last 5 meetings in Atlanta now when these two team play and the OVER is 7-2 in Detroit's last 9 games when playing on two days rest. The OVER is 20-9 in Detroit's last 29 games when their opponents scores 100 points or more in their previous game and is 43-19 in the Pistons last 62 games overall . For Atlanta, the OVER is 10-2 in their last 12 games following an ATS win and is 12-3 OVER in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. I expect a final score in the 114 -109 range for another EASY OVER tonight.