Jack Jones
Thunder/Kings Under 203
Teams can really struggle to get in sync offensively when they are missing their starting point guard. Both the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Sacramento Kings are expected to be without their starting PG's tonight, which is the biggest reason I'm backing the UNDER in this game.
Second-leading scorer and top assist man Isaiah Thomas (20.7 ppg, 6.4 apg) is doubtful with a quad injury for the Kings. Second-leading scorer and top assist man Russell Westbrook (21.6 ppg, 6.9 apg) is also doubtful as he is expected to get the night off to rest his knee.
One look at the recent head-to-head series and it's easy to see that the books have inflated this total as well. The UNDER is a perfect 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Kings and Thunder. They have combined for 201 or fewer points in each of those five contests, and I look for that trend to extend to six straight tonight.
Sacramento is 9-1 to the UNDER versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game in the second half of the season this season. OKC is 13-3 to the UNDER in road games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in Thunder's last five games vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 5-0 in Kings last five games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
Michael Alexander
Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Houston Rockets -9
Los Angeles seems to lose a different player each day to injury, and the team is willing to let everyone take as long as they need to get back in a lost season. Kent Bazemore is the latest to go down after suffering sprained foot in Sunday’s loss, and the team announced on Monday that forward Xavier Henry would undergo season-ending surgery on his left wrist and right knee on Friday. Pau Gasol has missed seven of the last eight games due to a bout with vertigo and is not expected to play
Bruce Marshall
Flyers vs Panthers
Pick: Over
After being shut out in a recent pair of games, the Flyers offense has shown signs of life, a good sign with the playoffs on the horizon. Brayden Schenn had a pair of goals in Sunday's 5-2 win over Buffalo, matching his team's scoring output from the previous three games. Philadelphia has still been mostly an "over" performer lately, with just seven "unders" in its last 18 games. The Flyers have also solved Panther GK Roberto Luongo in the past.
SPORTS WAGERS
ST. LOUIS -1½ +134 over Washington
Suddenly the Blues are in danger of not finishing first overall after back-to-back losses to Colorado and Chicago. The Blues are just a point ahead of Anaheim with one game in hand and if they want home ice throughout the playoffs, they had better step it up. Being in a foul mood after consecutive losses and with first place in jeopardy, the Blue Notes could not have handpicked a better team to play against than the heartless Capitals. Washington has two wins in their past eight games. Both were underserved, as they defeated the Islanders 4-3 in a shootout after being badly outplayed and outshot. Its other win came against the Sharks in another game they were badly outplayed and outshot in. That’s been the case the entire second half for the Caps. They are a lazy team that spends a large portion of every game in their own end. No team, not the Predators, Islanders, Oilers, Flames or Panthers have been easier to beat in the second half than the Caps. Now playing without two regular d-men in Mike Green and Jack Hillen, the Caps are once again pure fade material.
When St. Louis went into Washington way back on November 17, they lost 4-1 despite outshooting the Caps, 47-20. The Blues goaltender in that game was Jaroslav Halak. Their goaltender tonight is Ryan Miller while the Caps goaltender is Halak. Need we say more? Huge mismatch in talent, defense and desire has us spotting the 1½-pucks.
Colorado/EDMONTON Over 5½
Anytime we can get plus money with the standard total of 5½ when J.S. Giguere is in net, we’re going to bite almost every time. With all due respect to Tim Thomas, Martin Broduer, Anders Lindback and Cam Ward, Giguere may be the worst of them all. The last time Giguere appeared in a game was in Montreal, where he allowed five goals on 35 shots for a save % of .857. He’s had save percentages of .857, .889, .815, .789, .708, .893, .888 and .855 in eight of his past 11 games. For Patrick Roy, who announced last Thursday that Giguere will start this game, this isn’t an attempt at getting Giguere some work; it’s an opportunity to give Simeon Varlamov some rest. Once playoffs start, you will not hear or see Giguere’s name.
The Oilers routinely give up three four or five goals a game and they also give up more scoring chances than any team in the league besides Toronto and Washington. In four of its last five home games, Edmonton surrendered eight goals to Calgary, five to San Jose, three to the Ducks and five to the Rangers. The Oilers are also putting some pucks in the net recently with 13 goals scored over their past four games. These two have played twice this season with Edmonton winning 8-2 in the first game and Colorado winning 4-2 in the rematch. Expecting this one to stay under seems somewhat unreasonable and before Giguere is officially named as the starter, we’ll hop on this one early.
SPORTS WAGERS
Milwaukee -109 over PHILADELPHIA
The Phillies are banking on a core of players in their mid-30s, which consists of 36-year-old outfielder Marlon Byrd, 36-year-old backup catcher Wil Nieves, 37-year-old starter A.J. Burnett, 34-year-old Ryan Howard, 35-year old Carlos Ruiz and 35-year olds Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins. We mention this because of the significance in the decline of MLB players once they hit age 35. In fact, only 4.2% of 35+year-old hitters made the Top 25 in ONE offensive category (hits, RBI’s, runs scored, HR’s, extra bases, on base percentage, and BA) in spite of being 7.9% of the MLB population. That’s all you really need to know about the 2014 Philadelphia Phillies when anyone not named Cliff Lee or Cole Hamels is pitching. Cited as a "breakout candidate" a couple of times in this space last year, Kyle Kendrick made us look good through June. But being blasted for 21 ER in the next 26 IP blew that away and shoulder woes shelved him later. He has nice control and a good groundball rate but with a chronically subpar strikeout rate he's very hittable. Loss of 2012-2013 swinging strike rate gain closes the door on that breakout and current Brewers have 22 hits in 67 AB’s (.328) against Kendrick.
The Brewers swept the Red Sox in Boston to run their record to 4-2. Milwaukee smacked around Clay Buchholz and defeated both John Lester and Jake Peavy. They also did a number on several Red Sox relievers. They come into this series still undervalued and still very playable at this price. We know Kyle Lohse isn't going to blow away hitters with his mid-80s fastball. But it's also obvious that he owns three straight seasons of 30-plus starts, an ERA below 3.50 and double-digit wins. Are we giving Lohse enough credit? Look beyond the strikeouts and Lohse's skills aren't bad at all. His strikeout rate slipped but he maintained a solid command rate because of pinpoint control. Stable hit % and history versus both lefties and righties says that he's still keeping hitters on both sides off balance. Skeptics keep waiting for Lohse's numbers to better reflect his raw skills. But the 35-year-old continues to outperform by making good use of five pitches and providing consistency from start to start—a fact that has helped deliver at least 20 quality starts each of the past two years. And he has been excellent at avoiding disasters the past two seasons. While he won't get strikeouts, it's too easy to simply dismiss Lohse's past three seasons as repeated flukes. With that we’ll spot the cheap price, especially when you consider that current Phillies have hit just .229 in 144 career AB’s versus Lohse.
N.Y. Mets/ATLANTA over 7½
Aaron Harang came out in his first start as a Brave and made the Brewers look like a bunch of school children by throwing 6.2 innings of two-hit shutout ball. Harang comes up with a game like that from time to time but his chances of repeating it are about the same as Lindsay Lohan’s chances of handling her money well in Hollywood after a bender. Expectations for Harang entering 2013 were justifiably grim, as his skills and xERA suggested his sub-4 ERAs of the previous two seasons were a mirage. Harang’s ERA/xERA gap over the past three years is considerable, but the latter is still in line with his pedestrian results from previous years. Plus, career oppBA (.270), WHIP (1.35) and hit percentage of balls in play (46%) all suggest he's not fooling anyone. Harang also has a huge propensity for giving up home runs, especially with men on base. He gave up 26 last year in just 143 frames and most of those occurred at pitcher friendly Safeco. When Harang came over to the Mets he allowed five jacks in just 23 innings. Even if he has a decent game here, he’ll give up two or three runs and the Braves should take care of the rest to send this one over the number.
Last year was one of surprises for Bartolo Colon. First, he surprised everyone by coming off a 50-game PED-related suspension by delivering a career year at age 40. Then he surprised us in the offseason by landing a two-year contract with the Mets. Colon's numbers say he continues to get better with age but his skills disagree. A big part of Colon's recent success is his control. He simply doesn't allow walks. Colon has thrived, however, because of a high strand % and that’s a tough way to go about business. Lower hr/f and hr/9 rates in Oakland helped, too. However, Citi Field and other parks around the NL, including Turner Field isn't as forgiving. Colon's xERA provide a better picture of what his skills are more likely to deliver this year. Expect low strikeout totals, a lower strand percentage leading to a much higher ERA and nowhere near the 18 wins he put up for the A’s. Yes, Colon has defied the odds before but sooner or later the underlying skills will show up.
San Diego +128 over CLEVELAND
We targeted the Padres yesterday with Robbie Erlin going against Corey Kluber but that game was rained out. Today we get an even more favorable matchup. Kluber is battling everything right now. He had a horrible spring in which he posted an ERA of 5.60 after giving up 33 runs in 27 frames. He subsequently went out and got rocked in his first start in Oakland by allowing eight hits and five earned runs in 3.1 innings. To make matters worse, Kluber walked three batters and struck out just two. Those three walks he surrendered to Oakland is a tell-take sign of a pitcher that is not comfortable challenging hitters. He’s scared to come at them and that’s not the type of pitcher you want to back spotting a price. Additionally, the Indians bullpen has been a complete mess thus far.
Tyson Ross had a rough first outing against the Dodgers but we’re not going to put much emphasis on that because he had a huge breakout last year, which was masked only by a poor team and innings lost to a left (non-throwing) shoulder injury. Ross found command of his beastly slider and became one of the toughest starters to hit in the NL, with a 55% groundball lean to boot. A concurrent growth in strikeout rate and control is always a great sign and Ross’s command approached elite territory down the stretch. Ross transitioned to the starting rotation in late July and never looked back, putting up a 3.13 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. His 2H xERA of 2.42 in 2013 says it all—he was one of the game's best down the stretch. There are so many strong signs in Ross’s profile, making him one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game. Invest.
SEATTLE -1 +124 over L.A. Angels
The Angels have a lot of big names and high expectations, which make them perhaps the most overvalued team in baseball. It’s early but the Angels three wins in seven games all came against the Astros. When they hosted these Mariners last week back in Anaheim, Seattle swept them and outscored them 26-8. Now we get a repeat pitching matchup and we’ll repeat exactly what we wrote back on April 2 when these two starters hooked up because nothing has changed except the venue.
From our April 2 write-up with some minor changes:
There were openings in the back-end of the Anaheim rotation and Hector Santiago snuck into one of them. Santiago, who came over from the White Sox via a trade, impressed early in spring training but he ended it with a rough start against the Diamondbacks' Triple-A squad in which he gave up six runs in five-plus innings. Despite the outwardly impressive numbers, there are reasons to beware: His ERA looks good, but he’s been helped by favorable strand percentages the past two years. Santiago’s xERA says this isn’t the skill set of a sub-4.00 pitcher and he walks too many batters (113 BB in 224 career innings). Santiago also gives up a lot of fly balls as evidenced by his 37%/44% groundball/fly-ball split over his career. Leaving US Cellular Field (RH HR +38%) will help but right now the Mariners have some pop in their bats. Santiago’s fastball velocity is also heading in the wrong direction, as it declined from 93.8 in 2011 to 91.8 in 2013. Lastly and another concern for Santiago is that he had a big IP boost from 2012 to 2013. This is a risky skill set that could hurt your bankroll.
James Paxton went 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in 24 innings for Seattle as a September call-up. Paxton features a mid-90s heater, a changeup he'll use anytime and a curve as his out pitch. Paxton has maintained a 55% groundball rate throughout his minor-league career and matched that in the aforementioned 24 innings last September. Erosion of command on the way up the ladder is a concern but as 25-year-old ground-baller with three plus pitches, there's just too much upside in him to ignore against the Halos. Paxton certainly has value this early in the season and we’re on him again.
Psss NBA
LT Profits
Detroit vs Atlanta
Pick: Pistons +7
The Atlanta Hawks seem to be safe to hold on to the eighth and final playoff spot in the East as they lead the Knicks by two games with New York having only four games left, but the Hawks remain eight games under .500 at 34-42 and probably should not be favored by this much over anyone, as this line is shaded a bit because they are fighting for that spot while the Detroit Pistons are only trying to be spoilers. The Pistons did beat the Hawks that last time these teams met with six Detroit players scoring in double figures and the Pistons should be able to score again vs. an Atlanta defense allowed 102.0 points per game while ranking an identical 22nd in the NBA in field goal percentage allowed and in three-point defense. The Hawks are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall.
Will Rogers
Brooklyn vs. Miami
Pick: Brooklyn
This now looks like simply too many points for the Heat to be giving up against a Nets team that they have failed to beat all season.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. 1 out of 30 - There is only one team Miami has failed to defeat this year. That would be Brooklyn, who is a perfect 3-0 straight up and against the spread vs. the Heat this season, including an outright win here in Miami just last month as nine-point pups.
2. Nothing But Net - Since January 1st, Brooklyn is 32-13 straight up. No other Eastern Conference team can come close to matching that record.
3. X-Factor - Miami's big game is not this one, but a Friday date at home with Indiana that will likely decide who ends up with home court advantage in the East. I would not be surprised at all to see Dwyane Wade sit this one out.
Sean Murphy
San Antonio vs. Minnesota
Pick: San Antonio
Unlike previous years, the Spurs haven't shifted into cruise control down the stretch. Sure, they're putting Tony Parker on the shelf for this two-game road trip, but they're by no means going to lay down as they try to wrap up the NBA's best overall record this week.
Meanwhile, the T'Wolves have all but packed it in. They're left to play for lottery balls at this point, and they're going forward with a severely undermanned squad. Kevin Love is expected to return to the lineup after missing Sunday's game in Orlando, but guys like Kevin Martin and Nik Pekovic remain sidelined, striking a major blow to the team's chances of upsetting one of the league's elite teams.
Minnesota has enjoyed plenty of success at home against San Antonio in recent years, but this is a different T'Wolves team, with a much different attitude at the end of a trying season. They might be able to stay close for a while, but it should only be a matter of time before the Spurs talent and depth edges win out, and they put this one away for good.
Brady Kannon
Seattle -112
I think James Paxton is one of the best pitchers in The American League that not a lot of people know about. He cruised over The Angels last week in his season debut and now he gets to show his stuff to the home crowd in Seattle. The Angels were dominated by Seattle in Los Angeles and then got to get healthy against the lowly Astros. It's back into the frying pan tonight against a Mariners team that is playing very well early - and I expect that to continue as they make a run to win the division.
Harry Bondi
BOSTON (-125) over Texas
Another FREE WINNER here last night on the Red Sox and tonight we'll ride the BoSox once again. The shaky Texas bullpen is taxed after using six relievers in the last two nights and that will prove costly here again tonight, just as it did on Monday night in the late innings. Meanwhile the Sox bullpen is rested. Closer Uehara threw just one inning last night and he, along with the team's key set-up men, are well-rested and available tonight. Sox starter Felix Doubront's ERA was a full run lower last year at home than on the road and over the last three seasons the Sox are 62-48 against southpaw starters. Lay the short price.