Andre Gomes
Washington / New York Over 194
The Knicks won't have Tyson Chandler and Kenyon Martin for tonight, so Coach Mike Woodson won't have other option that start the game immediately with a super small lineup, possibly with Chris Copeland. This will turn the Knicks into a very vulnerable team down low, not just in post up defense, but also on their rim defense. These are good news for Washington, who not only has Emeka Okafor and Nene Hilario in the frontcourt, as the Knicks won't be able to stop John Wall's dribble penetrations tonight.
Besides that, the Knicks are coming from a big win at Oklahoma City last Sunday afternoon and they will have a big game in Chicago in their following contest, so it's normal that they will suffer a letdown in terms of lack of defensive effort tonight. Washington will have a nice edge in transition offense tonight, with John Wall leading the way. The problem for the Wizards will be to defend the Knicks's offense. The NY team is on fire on offense thanks to Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith, whose isolation plays have been amazing lately with 1.03 PPP with their last 10 games! The Knicks's floor spacing is excellent and the advantage of playing small ball is that Washington's frontcourt isn't used to be forced to have to defend away from the rim, something that will allow the Knicks to torch them with continuous treys. This will consequently turn this game into a high scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Phoenix / Houston Over 211.5
Houston is back to their regular level on offense, after some struggles on a four-game span where they faced four top teams: San Antonio, Indiana, Memphis and the LA Clippers. The team has also benefited from James Harden's return, who has already played his team's last three games. On the other hand, the pace factor of the Rockets has increased again on their last five games: 95.06, 93.56, 97.54, 94.06 and 101.43! Their number of fast break points scored and points in the paint have also improved as well. When the Rockets are playing well on offense, these two areas are where they do the most damage and they have averaged 21.5 fast break points and 54 points in the paint in their last four games!
The Rockets couldn't have asked for a better opponent tonight than the Suns's terrible defense. Phoenix has been also playing at a very fast pace, while showing absolutely no defense whatsoever. A good offensive team that likes to play fast and has a good transition offense like the Rockets can have huge offensive outcomes against them. This is why Sacramento scored 117 points against the Suns, while the LA Clippers scored 126 points and Golden State 111 points. The Suns's transition defense is non-existent and so, they are allowing 1.28 PPP (Points Per Possession) on transitions over their last 10 games! On the other side, Phoenix's offense may not be as consistent as their defense (in the bad sense of course), but Goran Dragic can definitely explore Houston's poor PG defense, while the Suns have decent athleticism to score a decent number of points tonight against a poor Rockets defense in a fast paced contest. Therefore, I expect this game to be a very high scoring affair and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Tony George
NY Yankees -126
Andy Pettitte takes the hill for the Yankees and he should be able to slow down the Tribes offense tonight, and this is a team he has owned who starts a bad pitcher against him. This is all about pitching in this game, and of course the better team laying a short number.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
New York -121 over CLEVELAND: The Yankees are showing that their offense is not dead, even with all the injuries as they come in 9th in scoring and 10th in hitting and they have put up 18 runs in their last 2 games. With NY it has been their pitching, that ranks 27th in ERA, that has let them down. Not tonight though as Andy Pettitte looked very good in his opener and he should continue that in this one. Andy has had some recent success vs the Tribe, as the Yanks have wn each of his last 3 starts vs them, while he didn't allow more than 1 ER in each of those starts. Carlos Carrasco gets the call for the Indians and he hasn't made a start since 2011 and in his last 6 starts of that year he was 0-6 in his team starts, with a 7.92 ERA. One of those starts were right here vs the Yanks and he allowed 6 ER's in just 4 innings of work in that starts. Cleveland's offense has put up 19 runs in their last 2 games, so it is starting to come around, but I don't see it happening tonight vs a tough Andy Pettitte. Look for the Yanks to take another from the Tribe here.
SEATTLE -148 over Houston: As Scott said yesterday on First Preview, the AL West will be decided by Houston. The teams that figure out that beating Houston is a must, will thrive in this division. Im not saying that Seattle will win the division, but they are a much improved team and if they have any hopes of staying in the rest then they must win these games. Seattle took their home opener last night over the Astros by a 3-0 count. Houston's offense is struggling having bee shut out 3 times, while not scoring more than 3 runs in any game during their 6 game losing skid. Coming to a pitcjhers park vs a starter they have never seen will not help this offense at all. Brandon Maurer has just 1 career starts and that was last week, but he was 9-2 with a 3.24 ERA in the Minors last year and facing the Houston offense is just like facing a minor league offense. Erik Bedard pitched well for the M's when he was here, but since leaving he has not fared very well vs his former team, going 1-3 with a 5.46 ERA in 5 career starts vs them. Seattle is not an offensive powerhouse, but they have upgraded their offense and just like last night they should put enough runs on the board to get the win here.
WASHINGTON -143 over Chicago It's true that Gio Gonzalez has struggled with the ChiSox, going 0-4 with a 5.86 ERA in 5 career starts vs them, but his last meeting with them was when he was an Oakland A, back in 2011. The Nationals are 25-8 with Gio on the hill, while he has gone 10-4 with a 2.24 ERA in this park in his career. The Nationals have struggled on offense thus far, but they should get back Laroche for this one, which will help immensely. Jake Peavy had a nice start to the year, but he is off a year in which he went 5-8 on the road and the Sox have lost 10 of his last 12 road starts overall, plus Jake is 2-12 following a quality start in his last outing. Washington is off a tough series with the Reds and would love to get back to winning and with Gio on the mound and Laroche back in the lineup the should have enough to come up with the win here.
San Francisco/ Colorado Over 7: Tim Lincecum had a good showing in his 1st outing, but he will be taking on a Colorado offense that has looked very good in the early going. The Rockies are 3rd in scoring, 1st in hitting and 1st in HR's in the early going and after being held to just 2 runls last night I see them bouncing back vs a weaker pitcher tonight. Giant starters have a 6.65 ERA in their home games thus far and I clearly expect at the least 3 runs from Colorado in this one. I also expect no less than 3 runs from the giants, who will be facing Juan Nicasio and his career 4.91 ERA on the road. Look for both offenses to have good showing vs some weak pitching ton1ght as we get at least 9 runs here. KEY TREND--- The Over is 6-1-1 in Tim's last 8 starts vs Colorado, with all 8 starts putting up at least 7 runs.
Ryan James
Philadelphia 76ers +7½
The last matchup between these teams went in the favor of the 76ers by 9 points. A chance in venue is not enough to swing this line by those 9 points plus an additional 7.5 points for a combined total of 16.5 points. The 76ers average only 1.7 points per game less on the road than they do at home and their defense allows only .7 points per game more when playing on the road. Brooklyn has been getting to much credit on their home court which is why they have a 14-22 ATS record. The Nets are also 2-3 straight up and 1-4 ATS in their last five games and they are facing a 76ers team that is 9-6 ATS in division games.
Jack Jones
Memphis Grizzlies -13.5
The Memphis Grizzlies still have a lot to play for as the season winds down. They would be the No. 5 seed in the Western Conference if the season were to end today, which means they would not have home-court advantage in the first round.
Memphis trails the Denver Nuggets by just one game for the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference. Los Angeles basically has the No. 4 seed locked up since it won the Pacific Division, but has a worse record than both Memphis and Denver.
What I'm saying is that the Grizzlies will not be taking the Bobcats lightly tonight, and I look for them to blow Charlotte out of the building because of it. The Bobcats currently own the worst record in the NBA at 18-59 for a second straight season.
Memphis has two of the best big men in the league in Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. I look for these two to dominate a banged-up Charlotte front line that simply doesn't have the talent to match up. Making matters worse is that DeSagana Diop (knee) and Brendan Haywood (foot) are out for the season, while Byron Mullens (elbow) is doubtful tonight.
The Bobcats are 14-38-2 ATS in their last 54 games following a ATS win. Charlotte is 7-22-1 ATS in its last 30 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Bobcats are 15-38 ATS in their last 53 vs. Western Conference opponents. Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday.
Dave Price
Washington Nationals -150
The Nationals hold the edge on the hill with Gio Gonzalez. The White Sox have yet to face a left-handed starter this season and will be up against one of the best lefties in baseball tonight. Gonzalez was lights out in his first start of the season, and the Nationals are 26-9 in his last 35 starts. They are also 8-1 in his last 9 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Jake Peavy was good in his first start as well, but that came at home. The road has been a lot bumpier for the former NL Cy Young as the White Sox are 2-10 in his last 12 road starts and 0-5 in his last 5 starts as a road underdog. The White Sox are only 8-21 in their last 29 games as a road underdog. Take Washington.
Jeff Alexander
Chicago Cubs -110
The Brewers have really struggled against lefty starters this season. They are 0-3 against southpaw starters, and I expect their struggles to continue on the road against Chicago's Travis Wood, who dazzled in his first start, giving up just 1 hit in 6 innings of a win against Pittsburgh. Wily Peralta wasn't nearly as sharp for Milwaukee in his season debut, giving up 4 earned runs in a loss to the Rockies. The Brewers are 9-21 in their last 30 games as a road underdog. The Cubs are 4-1 in Wood's last 5 starts as a favorite. Take the Cubbies.
Jimmy Boyd
Indiana Pacers -13½
The Pacers are coming off a tough loss to Washington and will face a Cleveland team that has been plagued by injuries. This matchup falls into a system to play against a team like Cleveland when they are playing for double revenge of two straight losses against an opponent when that opponent is coming off a road loss. This system is has a long standing history of success with a 429-313 (58%) ATS record over the last five seasons.
This game falls into another system to play on a favorite that is a good team like Indiana when they are outscoring their opponents by 3 or more points per game on the season and coming off a blowout loss by 15 points or more. This system is 90-54 (63%) ATS over the last five seasons. Indiana’s defense has been solid at home holding opponents to 88.7 points per game and they offense should have no problem scoring on a Cavaliers defense that is allowing 102.5 points per game on the road. The Pacers should pick up a big win today.
Jesse Schule
Philadelphia Phillies -179
The Mets hammered Roy Halladay and the Phillies last night, winning 7-2 in a blowout. They aren't likely to enjoy the same success in tonight's game, with Cliff Lee on the mound for Philadelphia.
Lee cruised through eight innings, allowing just two hits while striking out eight in his season debut. He struggled at the beginning of last season, but finished the year going 4-2 with a 1.44 ERA. He beat the Mets during that stretch, going eight innings, recording strikeouts in a 3-1 game.
The Mets will hand the ball to Dillon Gee, who was a winner in his season debut. That was against a light hitting San Diego lineup in the pitcher friendly Citi Field in New York. It could be a lot tougher in Philadelphia tonight, where Gee is 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA in his last four starts.
Jimmy Rollins has hit Gee hard, going 6-for-9 lifetime against the right-hander. Michael young is 2-for-3 versus Gee in his career.
Gee has better numbers in natural light in afternoon games than he has at night. Last season he was 4-7 with a 4.50 ERA under the lights, in comparison to posting a 2.49 ERA during the day.
The Phillies find themselves with a mismatch on the mound, with a little revenge in their minds after getting blown out by the Mets last night.
Don Best Consensus
Dodgers at Padres
Pick: Under
The under is 5-1 in Dodgers last 6 vs. National League West. The under is 4-0 in Padres last 4 overall. The under is 6-1 in Padres last 7 during game 1 of a series.
Nelly
Chicago Cubs - over Milwaukee Brewers
Travis Wood tossed a gem in his 2013 debut, allowing just one hit and no runs over six inning in Pittsburgh last week. Wood only needed 85 pitches as the Cubs eventually won 3-2 with the Chicago bullpen making things interesting in the end. The 26-year old left-hander is small in stature but he has proven to be a reliable option in the rotation and he pitched much better than his 6-13 record indicated last season. Wood allowed three or fewer runs in 20 of his 26 starts last season but he pitched in front of a lousy team and the Cubs lost 13 of his final 16 starts last season. Wood had two quality starts against the Brewers last season with just 11 hits allowed in 14 innings. The bullpen has been a serious concern for both Chicago and Milwaukee in the early going this season and Chicago should be in better shape in this game with a veteran on the mound. Wily Peralta will make just his seventh career start in this game for the Brewers and while his ceiling is high he clearly has some work to do. Peralta had good numbers in limited action last year but he struggled this spring and labored in his first start, a 7-3 loss at home against the Rockies in which he allowed four runs, six hits, and three walks in just over five innings. The Cubs have not been a great offensive team but both of these teams have been much stronger against right-handed pitching. Milwaukee is scoring just 2.9 runs per nine innings against southpaws this year so Wood could have an advantage on the mound. The conditions for the rare Wrigley Field night game will also be much cooler and than Monday's matinee where the ball was being pushed out. Without Jean Segura and Aramis Ramirez Milwaukee's lineup is already out of sorts and Ryan Braun just returned yesterday and may not be 100 percent. Milwaukee is 0-3 this season against left-handed starting pitchers and the Brewers pitching staff has allowed 43 runs in seven games, the second worst mark in baseball at his point. These teams look relatively even right now and this is a cheap price at home for the Cubs with the superior pitcher in a favorable match-up.