Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, December 10

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Kansas at Florida
The Gators host a Kansas team tonight that is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 road games. Florida is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Gators favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Florida (-2 1/2)

Game 517-518: Kansas at Florida (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 70.692; Florida 75.117
Dunkel Line: Florida by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-2 1/2)

Game 519-520: WI-Green Bay at Eastern Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Green Bay 58.106; Eastern Michigan 55.084
Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 3
Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 1
Dunkel Pick: WI-Green Bay (-1)

Game 521-522: Evansville at Xavier (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Evansville 58.461; Xavier 65.137
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Xavier by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Evansville (+11 1/2)

Game 523-524: Oakland at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 48.116; Indiana 77.498
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 29 1/2
Vegas Line: Indiana by 16 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-16 1/2)

Game 525-526: Dartmouth at Illinois (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dartmouth 47.543; Illinois 69.019
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 21 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois by 17
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (-17)

Game 527-528: Gonzaga at West Virginia (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Gonzaga 73.794; West Virginia 65.545
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 8
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 2
Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-2)

Game 529-530: Boise State at Kentucky (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 64.895; Kentucky 71.913
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 7
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (+11 1/2)

Game 531-532: Nevada at California (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 49.983; California 69.425
Dunkel Line: California by 19 1/2
Vegas Line: California by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: California (-14 1/2)

Game 533-534: IPFW at Bradley (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: IPFW 53.998; Bradley 54.848
Dunkel Line: Bradley by 1
Vegas Line: Bradley by 4
Dunkel Pick: IPFW (+4)

Game 535-536: South Dakota State at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota State 50.113; Minnesota 68.026
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 18
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 16 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-16 1/2)

Game 537-538: South Dakota at Kansas State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota 47.765; Kansas State 66.336
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 14
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (-14)

Game 539-540: Idaho State at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho State 46.165; Utah 67.097
Dunkel Line: Utah by 21
Vegas Line: Utah by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-15 1/2)

Game 541-542: AR-Little Rock at Tulsa (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: AR-Little Rock 49.106; Tulsa 56.398
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 10
Dunkel Pick: AR-Little Rock (+10)

Game 551-552: New Jersey Tech at Seton Hall (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey Tech 47.267; Seton Hall 58.369
Dunkel Line: Seton Hall by 11
Vegas Line: Seton Hall by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey Tech (+13 1/2)

Brandon Shively

South Dakota State vs. Minnesota
Play: South Dakota State +16½

This is an annual series and one that Minnesota has dominated by no surprise. They won 88-64 last year as a 15.5 point favorite. Minnesota is playing good ball this year under first year coach Richard Pitino. They are 8-2 overall, including a perfect 6-0 SU at home, winning by an average of 17 points on their home court. For South Dakota State, they are learning how to play ball without NBA draft pick Nate Wolters. The Jackrabbits are still a team that has perimeter shooters and can put the ball in the basket. Their struggles on offense have come though by the way off too many turnovers. What I like about this team tonight is that they have some big guards that can beat the press of Minnesota and get some easy baskets. Minnesota will then drop back into a zone and South Dakota State has shooters to make shots and they also have two legit scorers in the paint, including Florida transfer Cody Larson who is leading the team shooting 51% from the floor. Minnesota has a great team and they do not have many weaknesses, but this spread tonight is inflated because of previous series history, and this year's road struggles for the Jackrabbits, and the success of Minnesota at home. Look for South Dakota State to keep this game within the 11-14 point range tonight.

Art Aronson

Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Phoenix Suns +3

The Phoenix Suns (11-9) come off a 106-97 win at home over the Toronto Raptors. Markieff Morris had 22 points and 11 rebounds while P.J. Tucker had 18 points and 13 rebounds versus his old team that drafted him. The LA Lakers (10-10) come off a 94-106 loss at home to the Toronto Raptors on Sunday. Kobe Bryant had 9 points, 8 rebounds and 8 turnovers in his much talked about return. Nick Young led the Lakers with 19 points off the bench. The Suns are a very profitable 11-2 ATS as the underdog this season and 9-2 ATS on the road. Phoenix is 5-3 ATS when facing the Lakers the last three seasons. The Lakers have lost their last two games on home court and are still trying to get used to life with Kobe Bryant back in the lineup and I expect some more struggles here. Pau Gasol has been in a slump, averaging 11.3 points and 30.9 percent shooting in the last four games. Los Angeles is the worst defensive team in the Western Conference, allowing 103.0 points per game, and it's given up at least 100 in four straight contests for the first time this season. Grab the points with Phoenix with a strong chance at an outright win.

Ray Monohan

Gonzaga vs. West Virginia
Play: Gonzaga -2

This year’s Zags are not as good as last year’s but this is still a top 25 team. They have a great backcourt and nice size up front that is hard to match. Other than a loss to Dayton not one of their games has been close and I don’t expect this one to be either. Winning on the road is never easy but this is not a good West Virginia team. Sure they haven’t lost at home yet this season but any time they have played a decent team they have lost the game. Gonzaga is decent and then some and a guy like Kevin Pangos is the perfect kind of guy to lead your team to victory in a harsh environment.

Steve Rosen

Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Indiana Pacers -3

What is not to love about this game and more importantly this line. The better team is Indiana. They have home court advantage where they are 9-0, going up against a Miami road team who is 7-3. In their last 5 meetings in Indiana, the Pacers are 4-1 against Miami.

Rickie Robbins

Boston Celtics vs. Brooklyn Nets
Play: Boston Celtics +2

The Boston Celtics try to match a season-high fourth straight win tonight when they take on the struggling Brooklyn Nets.

The Celtics lost 10 of their first 14 games to start the season, but have since turned it around to win six of their last eight and their last three straight after thumping the Knicks by 114-73 on Sunday. Jordan Crawford made six threes to lead the team with 23 points, Jared Sullinger added 21, while Brandon Bass and Jeff Green added 16 apiece as the Celtics opened the game on a 25-3 run and showed no mercy, giving the Knicks the most lopsided game of the NBA this season. Aren't the Celtics supposed to be in a rebuilding year?

On the other hand, the Nets have been absolutely terrible so far this season, but can breathe a little sigh of relief as they head into tonight coming off a 90-82 win over the hapless Bucks. Brook Lopez proved unstoppable against the shorthanded Bucks, pouring in 32 points on 11 of 13 shooting, while Joe Johnson added 15 points but it's hard to get too excited about beating the worst team in the Eastern Conference and second worst team in the league. With the win, Brooklyn improve to 6-14 on the season and 4-8 on the road.

In ATS trends, the Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a losing record and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, while the Nets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall and 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.

With Lopez dominating the paint and making play after play out of double teams, the Nets looked earned a much needed victory and will be boosted by the probable return of Paul Pierce, but I can't resist taking the Celtics as the underdogs in this one. I have to stick with the team in much better form in this one, for sure.
Celtics+2

Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Phoenix Suns +3

Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers play host to the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday night from STAPLES Center.

Head to head, the Suns are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings while the home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Lakers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 game following a S.U. Loss, 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Suns on the other hand are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games, 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 vs. Western Conference and 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall.

With the Philadelphia 76ers now dropping off, the Phoenix Suns continue to be the NBA's biggest surprise through the first month and half of play. Portland has been awesome, but no one expect this Suns team to win a game, let alone 11 in their first 20 starts. Not only that, but Phoenix has been just about the best against the spread team there is, having covered the spread in 14 of 20. What's even more impressive, the Suns are a ridiculous 9-2 ATS on the road this season, covering in places like Houston, Portland, San Antonio and Oklahoma City.

The Los Angeles Lakers come into tonight's game off a 106-94 loss to the visiting Toronto Raptors on Sunday night, but they have been playing their best basketball of the season recently and most important of all, Kobe Bryant made a successful return to the hardwood after an eight month layoff. Bryant was clearly rusty and the Lakers had no answer for Toronto's Amir Johnson, but LA has still won six of their last nine overall and they have covered the sread in seven of those.

I thought Kobe's return on Sunday was going to be a distraction for his team and while I doubt that it the case tonight, I still think it's going to take the Lakers some time to get adjusted to him back in the lineup. On the other hand, the Suns have won four of six on the road and their most recent win was a 97-88 victory in Houston.
Suns+3

Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Miami Heat +3½

The Miami Heat have a tough challenge ahead of them on Tuesday, as the Heat head to Indiana to face off against the Pacers.

The Indiana Pacers are one of the elite teams in the league right now, as the Pacers are sitting at 18-3 this season, while going a perfect 9-0 at home. Indiana has the top rated scoring defense in the league, allowing just 89.5 points per game, and if the Pacers can stay healthy, and keep up the strong D all season long, Indiana will be a tough out. The Pacers are coming back home after a five game road trip, that saw Indiana go 3-2 overall, with losses against the Trail Blazers and the Thunder. The Pacers last game was on Sunday against OKC, so look for Indiana to be rested and eager to once again play in front of their home crowd.

The Miami Heat are sitting atop their division right now, with a record of 16-5 this season. The Heat always play well at home, but on the road Miami is playing well this season as well, going 7-3 overall. The Heat are playing balanced ball right now, ranking sixth in the league in both offensive and defensive scoring columns. The Heat are in the tail end of their four game road stretch that has seen Miami go 2-1 so far. Miami has had a day off after their last outing against the Pistons, and with the short trip to Indiana from Detroit, the Heat should be ready for the Pacers.

The Miami Heat are 11-10 against the spread this season, and this will be the first time all season that Miami has been listed as the underdog. The Heat are 7-3 against the spread on the road this year, and against Central division opponents, Miami is 4-2 ATS.

The Indiana Pacers are 15-6 against the spread this season, and at home, the Pacers are 6-3 against the spread. The under has also been the popular play for the Pacers at home as the numbers are 8-1 in favor of the under at home for Indiana.

Jim Feist

Boston Celtics vs. Brooklyn Nets
Play: Boston Celtics +2

You have a young, athletic team in Boston playing hard for their new coach, off a 114-73 rout of the rival Knicks -- on the road! The Celtics had leads of 12-0, 18-1 and 25-3. This is a team that won at Miami, as well. The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record. While Boston is up, Brooklyn is down, on a 3-8 ATS run while losing 4 of the last 6. Their last home game was a 113-83 loss to New York. The Nets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win. And when these teams meet the Celtics are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Brooklyn. Play the Celtics.

Bryan Power

Minnesota vs. Detroit
Pick: Minnesota

I don't think home court advantage is enough to account for Detroit being favored in this matchup. In my power ratings, I still have Minnesota ranked substantially higher (nearly 10 spots). We're also getting nearly a bucket with a team from the far superior Western Conference against an Eastern Conference foe. In my NHL betting, I was able to exploit the gap between the two conferences at will. I anticipate being able to do the same here on the hardwood.

The Timberwolves come into this matchup having lost back to back games and five of their last six overall. But those B2B losses came against Oklahoma City and Miami, while they've also fallen on the road to Indiana, Houston and Denver during this stretch. Those are all top 9 teams in the league right now. Minnesota's point differential of +2.8 PPG indicates that they are better than their 9-11 straight up record. I believe they are.

Most importantly, Kevin Love is expected back here after being out since Wednesday due to the death of his grandmother. Over the last three seasons, Minny is 12-2 ATS off a double digit home loss. Detroit is on a 13-27 ATS skid in non-conference games.

Will Rogers

Carolina vs. Edmonton
Pick: Edmonton

The Edmonton Oilers have been on a roll of late, despite losing in overtime to Calgary on Saturday. Edmonton has won 6-of-10 overall, and has alternated wins and losses in each of it's last seven games. They catch the Hurricanes coming off a late game in Vancouver on Monday, and Carolina has had a tough season so far.

Here are my keys to the game:

1: Fatigue - The Canes will be playing on back-to-back nights, for the second time in a week. They catch an Oilers team off two days rest, and Edmonton has thrived in such situations, winning four of it's last five.

2: Special Teams - The Oilers are slightly above average on special teams, with a power play clicking at 18.8%, and a penalty kill that ranks 14th with an 83% kill rate. The Canes are among the league's worst in both categories.

3: X-Factor - Goaltending is not the Oilers strong point, however Devan Dubnyk has turned in consecutive quality starts, allowing three goals on 60 shots in regulation time, with a win over the Avs and a loss in overtime to the Flames.

Wunderdog

Phoenix at Colorado
Pick: Phoenix +116

The line here may tell the story on its own, as the upstart Colorado Avalanche opened the season as a big surprise in the NHL. As expected, they have slipped back to ordinary as they are an even up at 6-6 in their last 12, including 2-2 at home as well. The Coyotes have been troublesome in recent games as well, and hope to get healthy at the expense of the Avalanche. Phoenix has come back strong after a poor offensive showing in their previous game, where they scored 2 or fewer goals, to follow at 7-3 in their last 10. Colorado has been an active team, and could be showing signs of fatigue here as they will be playing their fourth game in six nights - a situation they have been 2-9 in over their last 11. The Coyotes have been successful against Colorado with 10 wins in the last 14 meetings, as well as four of the last five here. Take Phoenix.

Larry Ness

Oklahoma City Thunder at Atlanta Hawks
Prediction: Atlanta Hawks

The Thunder lost 111-104 at Portland on Dec 4 (team?s only loss in its last 11 games) but have recovered quite nicely by scoring 227 points and shooting 55.8 percent in back-to-back victories, 109-95 at Hew Orleans and 118-94 at home over the Pacers. OKC shot a season-best 61.0 percent from the floor in scoring the most points given up by the Pacers since March 15, 2008. The league-best Pacers lead the NBA in opponent scoring (89.5) and shooting percentage (40.8), but Durant helped Oklahoma City break the trend with 36 points, 10 rebounds and five assists. Russell Westbrook (21.3-4.6-5.9) added 26 points and 13 assists.

The star duo also shot a combined 25 of 40 to help the Thunder win by double digits for the SIXTH time during the team?s current 10-1 stretch (7-4 ATS). Durant?s averaging a league-high 28.9 PPG (also 8.3 RPG and 5.0 APG) and has brought his best on recent trips to Atlanta, totaling 76 points and 21 rebounds in his last two road games against the Hawks. In fact, the Oklahoma City franchise has won 14 of its last 18 in Atlanta dating to its days as the Seattle SuperSonics. However, coming off that HUGE win over the Pacers and with a game tomorrow at Memphis, the Thunder just may be vulnerable.

The Hawks enter this contest on a three-game home winning streak, allowing 91.0 PPG on 41.7 percentage shooting. Al Horford (17.5-8.0) led seven players in double figures with 22 points and nine rebounds, while Paul Millsap (16.2-7.7) added 16 and 14, respectively, in Friday's 108-89 home victory over Cleveland. Kyle Korver (12.3) also set an NBA record by hitting a three-pointer for a 90th straight game for the Hawks, who have shot 40.4 percent from long range while reaching 100 points in four consecutive contests. "It feels good, I'm glad it's done," Korver said after finishing with 10 points and hitting 2 of 3 from beyond the arc. "My naps the last couple (game days) haven't been very solid."

PG Jeff Teague (16.6-6.9 APG) is having a solid season plus Lou Williams has now played in SIX of the last seven games he's played in just eight all year), which means the Hawks will again be getting his scoring ?punch? off the bench. Williams led the 76ers in scoring (while coming off the bench) two years ago (14.9) and last year, was averaging 14.1 PPG when he was lost in mid-January to an injury. Just a feeling. Take the points.

Jimmy Boyd

Brooklyn Nets -2

The Brooklyn Nets have been plagued by key injuries this season, and that is a big reason they have been unable to put a win streak together. That should change today with the return of Deron Williams who is playing is first game back since injuring his ankle back in November. The Nets are coming off a confidence boosting win on the road against Milwaukee, and with two days of rest before today's home game I think they should put together a solid performance against the Celtics.

The Boston Celtics are 0-5 ATS in their last five games when coming off a straight up win of more than 10 points. That trend should continue today as the oddsmakers have once again given too much respect to the Celtics in a game that should be played with plenty of motivation from Nets players after the blockbuster trade between these teams. The Nets are 9-3 ATS in their last 10 games wen playing on two days of rest.

Doug Upstone

Miami vs. Indiana
Play: Under 191½

On Tuesday, Play Under on road teams like Miami when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, who are scoring 103 or more points a game on the season, against opponent whose allowed 100 points or more in two straight contests. The rational here is if the total is this low and one team has such a high scoring average, the opposing team is presumed to bring the defensive intensity. In the past five years, this NBA system is 27-6, 81.8%.

Steve Janus

San Antonio Spurs -7½

The Spurs come into this one off an ugly 100-111 home loss to the Pacers. San Antonio hasn't lost back-to-back all season and I don't expect it come tonight. The Spurs are a well-oiled machine and I look for them to have their way with a Toronto team that is going to take some time to adjust to lift without Rudy Gay. While Gay wasn't shooting well from the field, opposing defenses had to respect him. Now they will be able to shift their attention to DeMar Derozan. I look for Toronto to struggle both offensively and defensively until they get a set rotation in place.

Road teams who feature good offensive (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive(98-102 PPG), after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Adding to this is the fact that the Spurs are 18-6 ATS when playing on 2 days rest, 21-9 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite and 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games following a loss at home.