Jeff Alexander
Tulsa -10
Arkansas-Little Rock is 2-12 ATS as a road underdog or pickem over the last two seasons, and it falls to 0-7 ATS in this set when catching 10 points or more. It has dropped these seven by 28.1 points on average. Tulsa has won three straight at home in the series with the last two wins coming by 14 and 16 points, respectively.
Dave Price
Minnesota Timberwolves +1
The Timberwolves have had Detroit's number. They have won six in a row against Detroit with four of the wins coming by double digits. Look for them to continue their dominance over the Pistons in this advantageous spot. Minnesota will undoubtedly be the fresher team as this will be just its third game this month while the Pistons will be playing their third game in four days. You can also argue that Minnesota will be the more motivated team following an ugly home loss to the Heat. The Pistons were defeated by Miami in their last game, but they haven't lost any sleep over that one because they beat the Heat Dec. 3. You want to take road teams when the line is +3 to -3 that are playing three games or fewer in a 10-day span if they check in off a loss at home. Doing so has produced a 34-10 ATS mark since 1996. In addition, Minnesota is 12-2 ATS the last three seasons following a home loss of 10 points or more. Take the Timberwolves.
Jack Jones
Brooklyn Nets -2
Sure, the Brooklyn Nets have been one of the worst teams in the league up to this point. However, their early struggles have created some line value in backing them going forward. If you would have set this line before the season, the Nets would have been a double-digit favorite over the Celtics.
While Brooklyn is undervalued right now due to a poor start, Boston is overvalued due to a recent stretch of solid play. The Celtics have won three straight coming into this one while covering the spread in all three. However, they should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers tonight.
The Nets have started to get healthy of late with the recent returns of Deron Williams and Brook Lopez. They are coming off a 90-82 road win at Milwaukee on Saturday, and have had two days to rest since that victory. Lopez scored 32 points, grabbed seven rebounds and dished out four assists in the win.
Boston is 43-71 ATS in its last 114 games off a road win by 10 points or more. The Celtics are 44-73 ATS after scoring 100 points or more in three straight games since 1996. The Celtics are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Brooklyn is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on two days' rest. Bet the Nets Tuesday.
Red Dog Sports
Ottawa Senators vs. Buffalo Sabres
Play: Ottawa Senators -126
Our free play is to take the Ottawa Senators as they are off a home shootout win vs. Philadelphia last night and get to play the worst team in the NHL (Buffalo) tonight. It is a road game and that is why it is anywhere from -126 to -140. Look for the Sens to keep on winning in a down year so far.
Matt Fargo
Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets
Pick: Brooklyn Nets
Boston has been playing very well with three straight wins and has taken over first place in the Atlantic Division. The Celtics are 10-12 overall and are exceeding expectations even though it still has a losing record. Beating Denver at home was a big victory but after taking out the rival Knicks by 41 points on Sunday in New York, they are in for a big letdown tonight, especially facing the struggling Nets. Boston is 5-7 on the road and going back it is 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Additionally, the Celtics are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win of more than 10 points. It has certainly been a tough start for the Nets as they are 6-14 overall including a 2-6 record at home. They are coming off a win at Milwaukee on Saturday to provide at least a little bit of momentum and in addition, they will finally see the return of point guard Deron Williams who has missed the last nine games with an ankle injury. While a January return was expected for Paul Pierce who has a fractured third metacarpal bone in his right hand, he could very well come back tonight to face his former team and he will try his bet to do so. The Nets have gone six straight home games without a cover but that changes tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
COLUMBUS -107 over New Jersey
OT included. We have to give the Devils a lot of credit for their win over the Rangers on Saturday in a very difficult scheduling situation. However, the Rangers are having difficulty winning, Henrik Lundqvist has been shaky all season and the Rangers blew a 2-0 lead in that one. That victory was New Jersey’s third over its past nine games and first in four games. This is still a very offensively challenged bunch that regularly registers 20-23 shots on net per game. Martin Brodeur is the confirmed starter here and that works to our advantage as well.
The Blue Jackets are suddenly high on our radar. After seeing this team struggle through the first quarter of the season, they have looked like an entirely different group lately. Columbus deserved a better fate in its loss last night in Pittsburgh, as they took it to the Penguins for most of the evening and played an outstanding road game. Goaltender Curtis McElhinney has been rock solid in net in every game he’s played since taking over from the injured Sergei Bobrovsky. The Jackets roll out four solid lines. Their top line of Matt Calvert, Brandon Dubinsky and Cam Atkinson are playing as good as any line in the NHL right now. Ryan Johansen is a legit star that plays on another outstanding line aside R.J. Umberger and Nick Foligno. Defensively, the Jackets are solid too. The Jackets terrible start has this team as the most undervalued and underrated team in the NHL. We promise you that there is a lot of profit to be made in playing them and it very likely starts here.
St. Louis -½ +111 over WINNIPEG
Regulation only. What a great spot for the Blue Notes. St. Louis is in a rare mini-funk with three losses in four games, including a 5-2 setback to the Ducks in their latest. Jaroslav Halak allowed three goals on eight shots in that game before being yanked in favor of Brian Elliott. Elliott allowed one goal on 14 shots the rest of the way and now he gets the call for this one. Halak’s .910 save percentage ranks him third last among the #1 starters in the league. He’s about the only reason the Blue Notes lose when they do because St. Louis is a team that rarely gets outplayed, outshot or out-chanced. The Blues figure to be in a foul mood after losing three of four and they found themselves in a very favorable spot against an inferior squad.
What the Jets lack in talent they more than make up for in heart. That’s not to say they don’t have talent because they do and they should continue to battle for a playoff spot the rest of the year. However, Winnipeg returns home from a six-game trip all against Eastern Conference teams. The West has beaten up on the East all season and Winnipeg figures to need a game or two to get back to playing a hard-nosed, Western Conference brand of hockey. The Jets have dropped four in a row and eight of their last 10 games against Western Conference foes. In a difficult spot, that number figures to grow to five losses in a row.
Phoenix +122 over COLORADO
Regulation only. The Avalanche have dropped two of three and they are playing .500 hockey over their past 12 games. When you read the injury report on the Avs, you will see that both Ryan Wilson and Jan Hejda are out. That may not seem like much but Wilson is +2 while Jan Hejda is at +17. That’s an incredible statistic on Hejda that should not be overlooked. Colorado’s only win since losing Hejda was a 3-2 victory in Calgary. The Avs also have a recent 8-2 loss to Edmonton, a 7-3 loss to St. Louis and a 4-1 loss to the Panthers.
Meanwhile, the Coyotes have not lost this year playing on three days rest. In fact, dating back to last season, the Coyotes have not lost in regulation on three days rest in eight straight. In other words, the Coyotes are at their best when they are a rested bunch like they are here after being off since Friday. They’ve also had great success against the Avs, defeating them in 10 of the past 14 meetings including four of the last five in Colorado. A live dog almost every time they take the ice, these Coyotes offer up great value tonight in a situation that they rarely lose in. We’re playing the Coyotes in regulation only because Mike Smith is a poor shootout goaltender.
Pass NBA & CBB
LT Profits
Miami vs Indiana
Pick: Over 191
Yes, the Indiana Pacers have the best record in the NBA at 18-3 thanks to a defense that leads the league in points allowed at just 89.5 per game, but the Pacers have not yet had to deal with LeBron James and the Miami Heat. Thanks to James having probably the best season of his career so far while shooting career-highs from the floor (59.4 percent), beyond the three-point arc (44.4 percent) and the foul line (78.7 percent), the Heat are scoring the most points in the Eastern Conference with 103.5 per game. As great as the Indiana defense is, James is simply indefensible right now so Miami should score its share of points here. That would force the Pacers to score more points than they usually do if they are going to win this game. The ‘over’ is 9-4 in the last 13 head-to-head meetings.
Green Bay vs Eastern Michigan
Pick: Green Bay -2.5
The Green Bay Phoenix are 5-2 while the Eastern Michigan Eagles are 5-3, but that is where any similarities between these teams end. Green Bay is the only Horizon League team ranked in the Pomeroy Top 100, now at 77th following a nice upset win over Virginia on Saturday. Even the two Green Bay losses were impressive as they lost by three points to Wisconsin and by 12 points to a Harvard team ranked 29th on Pomeroy and that received some Top 25 votes in the AP Poll this week. Eastern Michigan is ranked 190th overall, as after beginning the year 5-0 vs. a bunch of cupcakes, the Eagles have now lost three straight since the real competition started. We do not see EMU scoring many points here with a team that ranks 288th in offensive efficiency. Eastern Michigan is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.
Joe Gavazzi
Detroit -1
These are clearly two teams headed opposite directions. The T Wolves have had plenty of time to reflect on how poorly they have played. This is only their 2nd game in 10 days. The most recent outings have been a home loss to Miami by 21 and a road loss at OKC by 10. In all, the slide is 2-7 SU, ATS with the defense allowing 103 or more points in each of the last 4 games. Detroit is headed in the opposite direction on a 4-1 SU, ATS run. That lone loss came Sunday against Miami who was seeking revenge for the Detroit victory earlier in the week. Detroit has played well on this court posting a record of 5-3 ATS as home chalk. Let's side with the hotter team at home in a win situation.
Carlos Salazar
Miami vs Indiana
Pick: Under 190
It's only December but this could very well be an early preview of the Eastern Conference Finals. Carlos sees this as a defensive game with long possessions and will go way under the set total of 190. Bet the under with confidence.
DAVE COKIN
SAN ANTONIO SPURS AT TORONTO RAPTORS
PLAY: SAN ANTONIO SPURS -7.5
The Spurs are heading into Toronto off a double digit home loss to the Pacers. That’s bad news for the Raptors. The best teams in the league get my full attention when playing off losses, and the fact the Spurs got licked on their home court last game is even better news.
If you toss out a couple of meaningless losses at the finish line of the 2012-13 regular season, you’ll see how tough the Spurs have been off a loss. They’re off and running in this scenario so far this season. San Antonio is 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS off a loss.
It’s the first game back home off a three-game road trip for Toronto, and the Raptors will be playing without the traded Rudy Gay. The Raptors are getting terrific production from the backcourt tandem of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry. Amir Johnson is off a remarkable game against the Lakers and is on a pretty good roll right now. But this team is pretty thin in terms of quality depth, and that’s a potentially big factor against a very deep San Antonio squad.
It should be noted that not only did the Spurs lose that most recent game, they got humiliated in front of their fans. The final margin was bad enough with the Pacers winning by 11. But the Spurs were actually down 22 heading to the final quarter, and I cannot imagine that pleased Greg Popovich and this proud veteran cast.
You’ll have to pay the piper as far as the number goes tonight, as the Spurs are not going to be bargain priced. But the better teams never are, which is why it pays to wait for the good spots before firing. I see this as one that’s definitely worth playing, so I’ll spot the points tonight with the Spurs.
Nelly
Chicago Bulls - over Milwaukee Bucks
In the adjustment to playing without Derrick Rose the Bulls will have some inconsistency. The last several games have displayed that with differing results, getting convincing wins over Detroit and Miami, but also suffering a few ugly losses. The Bulls are still an excellent defensive team, featuring the fourth best defense in the NBA in terms of efficiency and Chicago has had two days to regroup after a loss to the Pistons, a revenge spot for Detroit and a bad spot for the Bulls coming off the win over the Heat. At 4-16 the Bucks have been one of the worst teams in the NBA and while injuries can shoulder some of the blame this is not a team that is doing much right. The Bucks were dogged by 7 in Boston last week and by 9.5 in Washington so this line is reasonable for the first meeting of the season between two nearby teams. The Bulls are 6-2 at home while Milwaukee is 2-8 on the road and this might be a tough spot for the Bucks after losing at home in a game they could have won against Brooklyn on Saturday. The Bucks have alternated home and road games the last 10 games for a taxing schedule with constant travel and Chicago is coming off its only non-overtime home loss of the season, setting up a nice rebound spot. Statistically there is no comparison between these teams even without Rose as the Bulls have dramatic edges on both sides of the ball. In road games Milwaukee allows 49 percent shooting and 104 points per game as the Bulls should be able to post a big number and Chicago should also have a tremendous rebounding edge in this matchup. Milwaukee is just 3-8 ATS as an underdog of at least four points this season.
Ian Cameron
Boise State at Kentucky
Play: Boise State +11
My clients and I cashed a ticket betting against Kentucky on Friday night in their loss against Baylor. They struggled in that contest and I expected to that continue as 11-point home chalk against a very solid Boise State squad.
Boise State is a strong offensive squad led by the quartet of Anthony Drmic, Derrick Marks, Jeff Elorriaga, and Ryan Watkins who are all averaging double digits. They rank second in the nation in scoring at 91.9 ppg with some of that largely being schedule related but this is still a team that can give Kentucky’s defense problems. I haven’t been impressed with UK’s defensive efforts in their step-up-in-class games against Michigan State and Baylor as they allowed both squads to shoot over 47% from the field. The Cats were supposed to have solid defensive presences on the court with the likes of Andrew Harrison, Willie Cauley-Stein and Alex Poythress but they are obviously still trying to find their way.
On the flip side, Kentucky’s offensive game is strong inside but has struggled from the outside (33.6% from deep). There is no doubt Boise State is likely going to follow Baylor’s lead (and others) and play zone. Kentucky’s one advantage is likely to come on the glass on both ends of the floor. This is only Boise’s second road game of the season and Kentucky is poised to bounce back but it is still too many points to be offering a veteran, experienced squad. Last season BSU went on the road and beat Creighton 83-70 as 13-point road underdogs and hung tough with Michigan State in East Lansing losing 74-70 as 15-point dogs. Look for a similar showing tonight in Lexington.
River City Sharps
Utah -16.5
We are going to side with the Utes at home in this situation as Idaho State comes to town. ISU is 3-2 on the season, but really hasn't been tested yet and when they were, they were blown out by Arizona State. Utah also hasn't played a really ambitious schedule in getting to 7-1, their lone loss being to a good Boise State team. Still, Utah has played more games and a better schedule, and is at home. Idaho St has a hard time stopping people, especially on the road. They are allowing 83 ppg in roads games and their opponents are shooting over 48% from the field. Utah is holding opponents to just under 60 ppg at home and they are one of the better shooting teams in the country, hitting 54.7% of their shots this season. This game basically features a pretty good offensive team that shoots the ball tremendously well, against a terrible defensive squad. We know who we like!
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Wisc- Green Bay/ Eastern Michigan Under 134.5: Last year EMU was the one of the slowest paced teams in the nation. Their games often finished at 110 points or less and as the season goes on I see the same thing happening this year. The EMU offense is starting to look like in years past as they have scored just 61.3 ppg in their last 3 games. Defensively they haven't played all that bad as they have allowed 70.2 ppg, but on just 39.6% shooting. Wisc-GB does play good on offense and their defense isn't all that good, but this is their first true road game and they are playing at a team that will slow this game down to a snails pace. Really hard to see this one putting up more than 125 points.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Kansas/ Florida Under 136: Both of these teams can play some lockdown defense and neither team is a run an gun team. both teams like to work the ball around for a good shot and that should really take hold in the second half of this game as it is expected to be a close game, meaning both teams will look to value each possession down the stretch. This should be a tight game throughout with neither team topping 65 points.
South Dakota/ Kansas State Under 129.5: Both teams prefer a slow grind it out pace of a game and neither team is all that good on offense, with both teams scoring 65.5 ppg or less, while shooting 41.1% or less. Both teams are also poor from long range and neither team is great from the charity stripe. I expect this one in the low 120's at best.
Teddy Covers
Phoenix at LA Lakers
Play: Phoenix +3
It’s going to be a process before Kobe Bryant gets comfortable in this Lakers lineup. His quote following the Lakers 12 point home loss to lowly Toronto in his season debut: “My rhythm is completely out of sync.”
Head coach Mike D’Antoni agreed wholeheartedly: “He'll work through his issues, and again, they're baby steps. He's coming back from a tough injury, and he's coming off eight months ... he is human, I think. We have to understand it's going to take the other players around him. It's going to be a little painful at first.”
Kobe Bryant is worth at least two or three points to this spread, but the Lakers are probably at least two or three points WORSE with him back on the floor – for now – as they adjust to new rotations and get their superstar acclimated to game speed. Let’s not forget the excellent team chemistry this team had without Kobe on the floor for the first five weeks of the season – LA overachieved both SU and ATS. That makes the Lake-show an easy ‘bet against’ as they work Kobe back into the mix.
Meanwhile, the Suns have been a remarkable early season success story; the antithesis of a squad that was supposed to be ‘Riggin’ for Wiggins’; tanking away the 2013-14 campaign. If the season ended today, this supposed bottom feeder would be in the playoffs in the vastly tougher of the two conferences, ahead of such teams as Golden State, Memphis, the Lakers, Pelicans and T-wolves.
This is the Suns' best role, 9-1 ATS in their first ten tries as underdogs of +3 or higher this year. They’re getting great production from their bench and balanced scoring overall, with eight different players averaging at least 9.7 points per game; capable of withstanding a poor shooting night from any of their key scorers. The three points we’re catching here are a nice little cushion in a game that Phoenix is more than capable of winning in outright fashion.