DUNKEL INDEX
NBA
LA Clippers at Chicago
The Clippers look to take advantage of a Chicago team that is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 home games. LA is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Clippers favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-3)
Game 501-502: New York at Brooklyn (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 123.133; Brooklyn 120.716
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 2 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick:
Game 503-504: LA Lakers at Cleveland (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 119.487; Cleveland 114.176
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 5 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 505-506: Denver at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 119.315; Detroit 111.349
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 8; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 4 1/2; 202
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-4 1/2); Under
Game 507-508: Washington at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 109.956; New Orleans 119.761
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 10; 190
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 4; 186 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-4); Over
Game 509-510: LA Clippers at Chicago (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 123.392; Chicago 118.156
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 5; 192
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 3; 187
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-3); Over
NCAAB
North Dakota State at Minnesota
The Golden Gophers look to build on their 10-3-1 ATS record in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. Minnesota is the pick (-14) according to Dunkel, which has the Golden Gophers favored by 17 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-14)
Game 511-512: St. Joseph's at Villanova (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Joseph's 66.565; Villanova 58.432
Dunkel Line: St. Joseph's by 8; 140
Vegas Line: St. Joseph's by 4; 136
Dunkel Pick: St. Joseph's (-4); Over
Game 513-514: West Virginia at Duquesne (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 64.076; Duquesne 55.743
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 8 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 7; 139
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-7); Under
Game 515-516: George Washington at Rutgers (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: George Washington 52.305; Rutgers 61.392
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 9
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (-7 1/2)
Game 517-518: Cal Poly at Nevada (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cal Poly 52.112; Nevada 59.215
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 7
Vegas Line: Nevada by 6
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (-6)
Game 519-520: Santa Clara at San Jose State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Santa Clara 54.906; San Jose State 53.695
Dunkel Line: Santa Clara by 1
Vegas Line: Santa Clara by 5
Dunkel Pick: San Jose State (+5)
Game 521-522: Chattanooga at LSU (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chattanooga 46.745; LSU 61.628
Dunkel Line: LSU by 15
Vegas Line: LSU by 18
Dunkel Pick: Chattanooga (+18)
Game 523-524: North Dakota State at Minnesota (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 58.448; Minnesota 76.169
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 17 1/2; 129
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 14; 133 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-14); Under
Game 531-532: Binghamton at Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Binghamton 37.414; Michigan 72.019
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 34 1/2; 140
Vegas Line: Michigan by 38; 132 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Binghamton (+38); Over
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Denver vs. DetroitFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Pistons are coming off a loss to the Sixers last night in Philadelphia, by a score of 104-97. They are back home Tuesday on the second half of a back to back, taking on the Denver Nuggets. After a rough start to the season, Detroit has tightened up their defense, and they are playing much better ball, especially at home.
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Both these teams have trended toward the over in recent games, with Detroit seeing the total go over in each of their last four games, and Denver having seen the total go over in six of their last seven games. Because of that, we see a total in this game that is far higher than it has been in any of Detroit's previous five home games.
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Detroit is 2-2 in it's last four games at the Palace of Auburn Hills, and the Pistons have held opponents to an average of just 91 points per game during that time.
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The Nuggets are a good team at home, but they aren't the same team on the road. They have really struggled away from home lately, with only one win in their last five on the road.
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Denver won in their last trip to the Palace, however prior to that, they had lost 14 straight to the Pistons in Detroit.
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I think the Pistons will slow the pace at home tonight, keeping this a low scoring affair.
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Denver vs. DetroitREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Yesterday, we successfully played on the Pistons to finish "over" the number at Philadelphia, a game that topped the total by double-digits.
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We're getting a considerably higher number to work with for tonight's game vs. Denver; I feel that the value has now shifted the other way.
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While I was happy to see them give up 104 at Philly last night, (I had a play on the 76'ers) the Pistons have been relatively stingy here at home. For the season, they're holding visiting teams to a respectable 94.9 points per game, on 42.9% shooting. Games here are averaging 195 points.
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This will be the sixth time that the Pistons will have played the second of back to back games. The previous five games produced an average of 193 points.
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True, the Nuggets can score. They check in averaging 100.7 points per game, 99.4 ppg away from Denver. The Pistons tend to try and slow things down against better offenses though.
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For the season, the "under" is already 4-1 when Detroit has faced an opponent which averages 99 or more points per game. (The "under" is now 32-24/57% their last 56 in that situation.)
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As for the Nuggets, they've seen the "under" go 58-47-3/55% the past couple of seasons, when laying points, including a 5-3 "under" record when they've been listed as road favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range.
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With the line having already climbed a bit from its opener, take a look at the Under.
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Cal Poly SLO at NevadaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Cal Poly SLOFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cal Poly is not especially talented, but extremely well coached and very high hoop IQ team. Nevada is almost the polar opposite. UNR wins on paper, but on the court I'd rather take the points with Cal Poly.
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Knicks at NetsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The battle for the pride of the Big Apple! This game will a playoff atmosphere and the under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. New York plays exceptional defense, 9th in the NBA in points allowed with big Tyson Chandler in the low post. The under is 11-5 in the Knicks last 16 vs. the NBA Atlantic, where they are in first place. Brooklyn is on a 6-2-1 run under the total and 6th in the NBA in points allowed, and 4-0-1 under against the Eastern Conference. And the under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings when the Nets have home court. Play the Knicks/Nets under the total.
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Denver Nuggets -5FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We are going to the Palace @ Auburn Hills.... The Denver Nuggets (10-11) are in the middle of a five-game road trip and need a W.. These Nuggets are "Power Rated" here @ - 11.31 points tonight from our camp. The Pistons will not hang with the Nuggets as they are lead @ point guard by Ty Lawson ... " flat out Great Motor". The edges are huge with the rebounding and bench for the visitors. The #'s punch in @ Denver Nuggets are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs. NBA Central
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Denver Nuggets vs. Detroit PistonsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Denver NuggetsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Denver is far from a top team but they are still one of the top offensive teams in the league - 9th in points. Detroit is adequate on the defensive end but they struggle to score which is why I think Denver can win easily even on the road, where they have struggled. Both teams are coming off losses but you have to like the depth of Denver with 6 players averaging between 10 and 16ppg. I also like the matchup of Ty Lawson against Brandon Knight as it will tire out the Pistons leading scorer. As long as they make enough shots to control the pacer Denver should be in control throughout. Nuggets are a solid 5-2 ATS with one day of rest this season.
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Denver vs. DetroitFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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What to expect: Nothing new or different here. The Nuggets will continue to feast offensively, scoring over 100 points for the 10th time in their last 11 games. The problem is, they're not stopping anyone, and the Pistons will be no exception. Since being held under 90 points in three straight games, the Pistons have responded by scoring at least 97 in each of their last four. Behind a three-point shooting barrage led by Brandon Knight and Kyle Singler, we'll see them top the century mark based on pace alone on Tuesday night. Expect to see both teams shoot well north of their season average in what turns into an entertaining non-conference matchup in Auburn Hills. The last five meetings in this series have easily eclipsed 200 points, and we'll see more of the same tonight.
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Final verdict: Nuggets 107 Pistons 104
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Los Angeles Clippers vs. Chicago BullsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Los Angeles ClippersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It's tough for me to lay points on the road in the NBA but here is a good situation as the Clippers are hot with six straight wins overall and three straight by double digits. You have to like the fact that they took care of the Bulls once already this year too, winning by 21 in LA. I'll give the edge to the Clippers tonight for a small play.
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New York at BrooklynFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Brooklyn +3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The oddsmakers have taken notice of the improved Knicks team. They were a great buy early as they were under the radar, covering eight of their first nine. That value has flipped as the Knicks just 5-6 against the line in their last 11, despite winning six of their last seven. The Nets have a talented team for the first time in several years. Brook Lopez is a game-time decision and if he gets some minutes here he blocks the lane for the Nets and the Knicks are not a very patient team, and will end up taking long jump shots. That is exactly what happened in the first matchup with the Knicks firing up 21 from deep connecting on only 6. The Nets are at their best off of one day of rest where they have failed to cover just one of their last 10. Play on Brooklyn.
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New York at BrooklynFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that 190 or fewer points will be scored in this game. Knicks have been playing very well to date and one of the dominant reasons is their strong ball handling. They rank best in the NBA sporting a 1.830 assist to turnover ratio. They are a tremendous perimeter shooting team and work the ball well to get the best open look at the rim. Brooklyn does not pressure ball handlers all that much, especially in half court defense. Knicks are a rock solid 18-6 UNDER when facing teams who average seven or less steals per game on the season over the last two seasons. By comparison, the Knicks rank fourth in the NBA averaging 9.1 steals per game. These steals, though, to not translate into fast break scoring opportunities. Knicks rank 30th averaging 8.6 fast break points per game. This matchup favors a half court based style of play with both teams working the shot clock to single digits often. Take the UNDER.
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L.A. Lakers vs. ClevelandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: L.A. LakersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Lakers come into Cleveland off back to back losses to Utah and the Oklahoma City Thunder. I expect the suspect Lakers will be highly motivated to stop this losing streak tonight against the Cavs.
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The Cavaliers look primed for the taking as they have lost five in a row SU and ATS. Cleveland is just 2-6 ATS at home this year.
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The Cavs are allowing 100.5 points per game this year while scoring 94.3 per game for a differential of -6.2.Note: Cavs guard Kyrie Irving is expected to suit up tonight for the Cavs. I expect him to make things a little bit better for Cavs, but I still think the Lakers actually have the personnel to contain him.
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The Lakers can certainly score this year, averaging 101.8 points per game. Kobe Bryant is averaging an NBA’s best 28.6 point per game in an offense that is slightly improving with the hire of Mike D’Antoni.
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A visit to Cleveland should work as a perfect chance to succeed for the Lake show. The previous losses and poor ATS record this year for the Lakers have given us pretty decent value here.
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The Lakers have covered the spread in five of nine games this year against teams with losing records.
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Lay the points with the Lakers in what looks to be a potential blowout.
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Lakers vs. CavaliersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Well, it hasn't taken long for the Lakers to start playing Mike D'Antoni style basketball. D'Antoni failed to win at all with the Knicks and he failed to reach the Finals during his extended tenure in Phoenix because his teams simply couldn't get stops.
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D'Antoni's teams play consistently poor defense in every aspect of the game -- bad transition D, bad halfcourt D, bad low post D, bad perimeter D -- you name it, it's been bad. The Lakers have lost four of their last five, while allowing 113 points per game on better than 47% shooting in those defeats. LA has been particularly bad in transition, allowing 19 points per game on fast breaks over their last four contests. Kobe Bryant: "(We're") just giving up too many transition points."
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The Cavaliers certainly aren't defensive juggernauts either, allowing more than 100 points per game on 48% shooting so far this season. That 48% shooting allowed is dead last in the NBA. They're also dead last in blocked shots; without any sort of low post defensive presence; bad news against the likes of Dwight Howard. Their only win since Thanksgiving came in an uptempo 113-111 victory over the Hawks. Most of their near-misses in their last ten games have also come when the Cavs have pushed the pace: 110-108 to Miami, 108-104 to Orlando. The Cavs only chance against a team like LA is to run, run, run at every opportunity.
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The Cavs will get a major boost tonight with the return of star point guard Kyrie Irving to the lineup following an eleven game absence. Head coach Byron Scott: "I think all the guys are looking forward to having Irving back out there because he does make most of our guys' job a lot easier because he creates so much for himself and for his teammates. I'm sure the guys will be happy to have him back out there." Expect Irving to provide a nice boost for the Cavs offense in what should be an umtempo affair that gets up and over the total. Take the Over.
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Denver Nuggets -5FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Denver Nuggets will run the Detroit Pistons out of the building tonight. I look for the Nuggets to easily cover this 5-point spread on the road against a very tired Detroit team that won't be able to keep up.
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The Pistons will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days. They certainly showed signs of wearing down last night, getting outscored by 10 points in the second half to fall 97-104 at Philadelphia. Detroit simply will not be able to match the energy level of Denver in this one given the tough situation.
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The Nuggets have really owned the Pistons in recent meetings between these teams. Denver is a perfect 5-0 straight up in its last five meetings with four of those victories coming by 5 points or more. It won 109-100 in its last trip visit to Detroit.
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This play falls into a system that is 58-23 (71.6%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DETROIT) - after having lost 3 of their last 4 games, extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days. Bet the Nuggets Tuesday.
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New York Knicks -3FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Even if Brook Lopez ends up playing tonight, although the latest information I have seen indicates he won't, I like the Knicks laying a small number in this revenge spot.
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The Knicks lost the season's first meeting in OT despite shooting only 38.8 percent from the field. Since that game, they have shot better than 42.0 percent in six of seven contests and went 6-1 in these games. They lit up the defending champion Miami Heat on the road during this stretch, and they have the potential to do the same to the Nets tonight.
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The Nets have lost four in a row SU and ATS, and they are just 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 home games. They have allowed their opponents to shoot a jaw-dropping 52.1 percent during their four-game skid.
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The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the Knicks are 7-2-1 against the spread in the last 10 road meetings in the series. Take the Knicks.