SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA
Miami (9-7, 7-9 ATS) at Portland (12-7, 10-9 ATS)
The slumping Heat begin a four-game Western Conference road trip with a visit to the Rose Garden for a tussle with the Trail Blazers, who have dropped two in a row.
Miami struggled offensively in consecutive home losses to Washington on Friday (94-84 as seven-point favorite) and Boston on Sunday (92-85 as a four-point underdog). The Heat are 3-6 SU and 1-8 ATS in their last nine games, with all three victories being one-point wins over Orlando (99-98), New Orleans (102-101) and New Jersey (81-80).
Portland has followed up a three-game winning streak with consecutive losses to Memphis (106-96 as an 11½-point home favorite on Friday) and Utah (108-92 as a five-point road ‘dog on Saturday). The Blazers, who have failed to cover in three straight games and six of their last eight after a 6-0 ATS run, gave up more than 100 points in their last two games after allowing just two of their first 17 opponents to reach triple digits. Also, prior to Friday’s shocking loss to Memphis, Portland had won six straight home games (4-2 ATS).
The Blazers swept the season series from Miami each of the last two years, cashing in all four games. In the last two meetings at the Rose Garden, Portland topped the Heat 112-106 as a 3½-point home underdog in 2007 and 106-68 as a 7½-point chalk in 2008. Still, the visitor is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 series clashes, and the winner has covered the spread in each of the last 11 meetings.
Miami is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 on Tuesday, but in addition to their 1-8 overall ATS slump, the Heat are on pointspread slides of 2-5 against winning teams, 1-4 versus the Western Conference, 0-5 after SU loss and 0-6 when playing after one day of rest. The Blazers have failed to cash in five of their last seven against the Eastern Conference, but they’re 8-3 ATS in their last 11 on Tuesday, 23-11 ATS in their last 34 as a favorite and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 when coming off two days of rest.
The over is 5-2 in the Heat’s last seven games overall, 25-10-1 in their last 36 after a SU defeat and 36-15-1 in their last 52 against Northwest Division foes, but they’re also on “under” runs of 4-1 on Tuesday and 5-2 against the Western Conference. Similarly, Portland carries “under” trends of 16-7 overall, 8-3 at home, 4-0 on Tuesday and 5-2 against the Southeast Division. However, the over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings between these squads in Portland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PORTLAND
New Orleans (7-10, 8-9 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (13-3, 8-8 ATS)
The surging Lakers shoot for their seventh straight win when they welcome the Hornets to the Staples Center.
New Orleans is coming off Sunday’s 112-96 loss at Sacramento as a four-point road underdog, ending a 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS run. Although the Hornets have taken four of their last six, both losses have come on the road, so they’ve now dropped four straight on the highway (1-3 ATS), giving up an average of 114.8 ppg. In fact, New Orleans is just 1-8 (3-6 ATS) as a visitor this year, with the lone victory coming against the Clippers. In those eight road defeats, the Hornets have surrendered an average of 111.3 ppg.
Los Angeles toyed with the winless Nets on Sunday, rolling 106-87 as a 14½-point home chalk, posting its sixth straight double-digit victory (5-1 ATS) while handing New Jersey its 17th straight loss to begin this season. The Lakers have averaged 108.5 ppg and allowed just 89.8 ppg during their winning streak, and since a 99-92 season-opening win over the Clippers, they’ve scored at least 100 points in their last 12 victories while netting just 83.3 ppg in their three losses.
One of the Hornets’ road losses came in Hollywood back on Nov. 8, a 104-88 setback as a 6½-point underdog. The Lakers have now taken five of the last six in this rivalry, but the teams have split the cash. Also, prior to last month’s matchup, New Orleans had cashed in five straight trips to Hollywood and the underdog had covered in 11 consecutive meetings, including nine outright upsets. The SU winner is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 head-to-head clashes.
In addition to covering in five of their last six overall, the Hornets have gotten the money in four of five as an underdog and five of six when catching 11 points or more.. On the flip side, New Orleans is on pointspread declines of 3-9 on the road, 4-11 against the Western Conference and 4-9 after a SU defeat. Los Angeles is riding ATS streaks of 5-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 7-2 after a spread cover, 5-2 against the Western Conference and 4-1 against teams with a losing record.
The Hornets are on “over” runs of 4-0-1 on the road, 4-1 on Tuesday and 3-1-1 against the Pacific Division. The Lakers are on “under” stretches of 13-5-1 at home, 7-2 against the Southwest Division and 8-2-1 after a spread-cover. Finally, the under is 6-2 in the last eight overall meetings between these teams, but seven of the last nine battles at Staples Center have gone over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(9) Michigan State (5-1, 2-3 ATS) at (10) North Carolina (6-1, 2-4 ATS)
The Spartans look to avenge their loss to North Carolina in last year’s national championship game when they trek to Chapel Hill for an ACC/Big Ten Challenge showdown at the Dean Smith Center.
Michigan State suffered its first defeat Friday in the Legends Classic in Atlantic City, N.J., falling 77-74 to Florida as a 3½-point favorite, but the Spartans rebounded Saturday with a 106-68 pummeling of UMass as a 16½-point favorite in the consolation round. Michigan State has scored at least 74 points in every game this year, averaging 86.2 points per game on 50.4 percent shooting. Defensively, Tom Izzo’s squad is yielding 66 ppg on 37.3 percent shooting, with opponents making just 25.2 percent of their three-point attempts against the Spartans.
The Tar Heels got embarrassed in the 2K Sports Classic championship game back on Nov. 20, losing 87-71 to Syracuse as a 1½-point favorite. But the Tar Heels got healthy last week with a pair of home wins over Gardner-Webb (93-72 in a non-lined contest) and Nevada (80-73, falling short as a 15-point favorite). The victory over Nevada gave coach Roy Williams his 600th career win. Like Michigan State, North Carolina is lighting up the scoreboard with 83.7 ppg (51.8 percent shooting), but it has surrendered 71 ppg despite limiting opponents to just 41.1 percent shooting.
The Tar Heels have scored at least 70 points in 44 of 45 games since the start of last season, hitting the 80-point mark 35 times during this stretch. Also, since the final game of the 2006-2007 regular season, Roy Williams’ squad is 83-9 SU, including 3-0 and ATS against Michigan State. Two of those three victories over the Spartans came in the NCAA Tournament – 81-67 as a 10-point favorite in the second round in 2007 and 89-72 as a 7½-point chalk in last year’s national title game. The other was UNC’s 98-63 rout as a 10-point favorite in last year’s ACC/Big Ten Challenge, a battle that occurred at Ford Field in Detroit, which also was the site of the national championship game rematch.
In last year’s two wins over Michigan State, North Carolina averaged 93.5 ppg while making 47 percent of its shots and held the Spartans to 67.5 ppg (37.2 percent). The Tar Heels also defeated Michigan State 87-71 as a 4½-point favorite in the Final Four en route to their 2005 national title, making UNC 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four meetings with the Spartans – all as a favorite – with those four wins coming by margins of 16, 14, 35 and 17 points.
Michigan State is on ATS hot streaks of 10-3-1 on the highway, 9-4 ATS against non-conference foes and 5-2 as an underdog (all on the road), but it is also in pointspread slumps of 1-5 versus ACC opponents, 5-15-2 on Tuesday and 1-4 after a SU win. North Carolina carries positive ATS trends of 7-3 at home, 40-14 against non-ACC opponents, 6-0 versus the Big Ten, 7-1 against opponents with a winning record and 7-3 following a SU win. However, the Heels have failed to cover in 10 of their last 14 when favored by seven points or less.
The over is 5-1 in the Spartans’ six games this year, and the over is 19-9 in the Tar Heels’ last 28 Tuesday contests and 23-11 in their last 34 after a non-cover. Finally, the total has alternated in the last four matchups between these college hoops powers, with the 2009 national championship contest jumping over the posted number.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA and OVER
Wake Forest (4-1, 1-1 ATS) at (4) Purdue (5-0, 2-2-1 ATS)
Wake Forest looks to rebound from a stunning first loss of the season when it travels to Mackay Arena for a battle with the fourth-ranked Boilermakers in the annual ACC/Big Ten Challenge.
After crushing its first four opponents by an average of 24.5 points per game, the Demon Deacons took the court Saturday as 16-point home favorite against William & Mary and lost 78-68. Wake Forest shot a woeful 35.1 percent from the floor and committed 25 fouls, which led to 35 free-throw attempts for William & Mary compared with just 12 for the Deacons. Wake Forest had held its first four opponents to 56, 58, 60 and 52 points.
Purdue has jumped out to a 5-0 start for the second consecutive season, and the Boilermakers are on a 10-1 roll dating to the start of last year’s Big Ten postseason tournament. Purdue, which is averaging 77 points per game, has been challenged just once this year, and that was on Nov. 23 in the finale of the Paradise Jam tournament in St. Thomas, when it held off 10th-ranked Tennessee 73-72, pushing as a one-point chalk. The Boilers followed that with Saturdays’ 64-38 rout of Central Michigan, coming up just short as a 26½-point home favorite.
Although both compete annually in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, this is the first-ever head-to-head meeting between these schools.
Wake Forest has cashed in six of its last seven games on Tuesday and five of its last six as an underdog. Purdue is in ATS funks of 1-3-1 after a SU victory and 1-5 against the ACC, but it is 5-2 ATS in its last seven when favored by 7 to 12½ points.
The Demon Deacons are riding “over” trends of 9-3 overall, 4-1 in non-conference play, 9-3 as an underdog, 4-0 after a SU defeat and 4-1 after a non-cover. The over is also 4-1 in the Boilermakers’ last five Tuesday contests, but otherwise Purdue is on “under” streaks of 5-2 in non-league games and 5-0 against the ACC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Maryland (4-2, 2-2 ATS) at Indiana (3-3, 2-3-1 ATS)
The Terrapins try to bounce back from a disappointing showing in the Maui Invitational when they hit the road again, stopping at Assembly Hall in Bloomington for an ACC/Big Ten Challenge contest against Indiana.
Maryland routed Maui Invitational host Chaminade 79-51 as a 26-point favorite on Nov. 23, but it followed that with non-competitive upset losses to Cincinnati (69-57 as a 3½-point favorite) and Wisconsin (78-69 as a two-point underdog). The Terps, who dropped out of the Top 25 with those defeats, outscored their first four opponents by an average of 30.5 points per game (80.3-49.8), allowing 55 points or less in all four wins, but they’ve been outscored by 10.5 ppg (73.5-63) in their two losses.
The Hoosiers halted a three-game SU losing skid and an 0-3-1 ATS slide with Saturday’s 90-72 home rout of Northwestern State, cashing easily as a 13-point favorite. Indiana tallied 45 points in each half in scoring the most points in any game since coach Tom Crean took over at the start of last season, eclipsing the previous high-water mark of 83. The Hoosiers are struggling defensively, though, yielding 69 points or more in four straight games (75.3 ppg average).
These schools squared off twice in an eight-month span in 2002. First, Maryland earned a 64-52 victory as a 7½-point home favorite in the 2002 national championship game, with the Hoosiers gaining a small bit of revenge the following season in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, prevailing 80-74 in overtime as a 3½-point home chalk.
Despite the loss to Wisconsin in Maui, Maryland is still 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games against Big Ten opponents and 6-2 ATS in its last eight after a SU defeat, but the Terrapins have failed to cash in five of their last seven Tuesday outings and 13 of 18 when favored by less than seven points. Meanwhile, Indiana remains on ATS slides of 2-5-1 overall, 0-5 after a SU win, 0-3-1 as a ‘dog and 1-6 after a spread-cover.
The over is 4-1 in Maryland’s last five non-conference games, but five of its last seven against the Big Ten have stayed low. The Hoosiers are on “under” runs of 6-2 in non-league action, 4-1 against the ACC and 5-1 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MARYLAND and UNDER
DUNKEL
Washington at Toronto
The Raptors look to take advantage of a Washington team that is coming off a 92-76 home loss to Charlotte and is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home. Toronto is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Raptors favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-7)
Game 701-702: Washington at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 110.809; Toronto 120.105
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 9 1/2; 218 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 7; 212
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-7); Over
Game 703-704: Boston at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 122.094; Charlotte 116.623
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 5 1/2; 186
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 3 1/2; 178 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-3 1/2); Over
Game 705-706: Phoenix at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 122.065; New York 117.072
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 5; 213 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 7; 225
Dunkel Pick: New York (+7); Under
Game 707-708: Golden State at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 112.121; Denver 128.628
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 16 1/2; 226
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 13; 233 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-13); Under
Game 709-710: Miami at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 117.387; Portland 121.362
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 4; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 7; 185
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+7); Over
Game 711-712: New Orleans at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 115.310; LA Lakers 131.687
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 16 1/2; 214 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 13 1/2; 205 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-13 1/2); Over
NCAAB
Wake Forest at Purdue
The Boilermakers look to take advantage of a Wake Forest team that is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games as a road underdog between 7 and 12 1/2 points. Purdue is the pick (-10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Boilermakers favored by 13. Dunkel Pick: Purdue (-10 1/2)
Game 713-714: Temple at Western Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Temple 62.049; Western Michigan 57.767
Dunkel Line: Temple by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Temple by 6
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (+6)
Game 715-716: Providence at Northeastern
Dunkel Ratings: Providence 58.915; Northeastern 62.833
Dunkel Line: Northeastern by 4
Vegas Line: Northeastern by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northeastern (-2 1/2)
Game 717-718: Wake Forest at Purdue
Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 64.353; Purdue 77.163
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 13
Vegas Line: Purdue by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (-10 1/2)
Game 719-720: Northwestern at North Carolina State
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 60.885; North Carolina State 68.677
Dunkel Line: North Carolina State by 8
Vegas Line: North Carolina State by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina State (-4 1/2)
Game 721-722: Maryland at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 62.720; Indiana 60.400
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Maryland by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+4 1/2)
Game 723-724: UL Lafayette at LSU
Dunkel Ratings: UL Lafayette 51.994; LSU 62.387
Dunkel Line: LSU by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: LSU by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL Lafayette (+12 1/2)
Game 725-726: San Francisco at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 45.951; Colorado 60.482
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado by 12
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-12)
Game 727-728: UTEP at New Mexico State
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 61.273; New Mexico State 56.397
Dunkel Line: UTEP by 5
Vegas Line: UTEP by 3
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (-3)
Game 729-730: Michigan State at North Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 74.170; North Carolina 75.511
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+2 1/2)
Game 731-732: Virginia Tech at Iowa
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 60.930; Iowa 62.508
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (+2 1/2)
Game 733-734: Pacific at Fresno State
Dunkel Ratings: Pacific 52.341; Fresno State 57.665
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 3
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (-3)
Game 735-736: Santa Clara at UC-Santa Barbara
Dunkel Ratings: Santa Clara 50.622; UC-Santa Barbara 57.211
Dunkel Line: UC-Santa Barbara by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: UC-Santa Barbara by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Santa Clara (+9 1/2)
Game 737-738: Idaho State at Notre Dame
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho State 45.585; Notre Dame 69.952
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 24 1/2
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 19 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (-19 1/2)
Game 739-740: Chattanooga at Jacksonville State
Dunkel Ratings: Chattanooga 42.428; Jacksonville State 51.135
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville State by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Jacksonville State by 6
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville State (-6)
Game 741-742: Evansville at Tennessee Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Evansville 50.397; Tennessee Tech 52.053
Dunkel Line: Tennessee Tech by 2
Vegas Line: Evansville by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee Tech (+1 1/2)
Game 743-744: Colorado State at Northern Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado State 53.068; Northern Colorado 55.078
Dunkel Line: Northern Colorado by 2
Vegas Line: Northern Colorado by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (+5 1/2)
NHL
Ottawa at San Jose
The Senators look to build on their 4-0 record in their last 4 games when playing with 2 days of rest. Ottawa is the pick (+170) according to Dunkel, which has the Senators favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+170)
Game 51-52: Toronto at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 11.066; Montreal 12.192
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-145); 6
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-145); Over
Game 53-54: Columbus at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.639; Chicago 12.033
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-230); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-230); Over
Game 55-56: Ottawa at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 12.457; San Jose 12.306
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-190); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+170); Under
Game 57-58: Los Angeles at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.469; Anaheim 12.695
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-135); Over
Frank Jordan
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Miami Heat vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Miami Heat +7
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Miami is 3-2 on the road but just 9-7 over all as they have dropped their last two and 6 of 10 over all. Portland has also dropped their last two games, but is 12-7 over all and 7-3 at home. Look for Wade and Roy to duke it out with Wade going crazy for 40 plus points getting Oden in foul trouble and taking him out of the game as the Heat get the big road win. Play Miami
Rob Vinciletti
UTEP vs. New Mexico State
Play: UTEP -3
The Miners of UTEP are shooting and defending early on far better than New Mexico State. UTEP is 17-6 vs losing teams,22-9 vs teams who allow 77 or more points per game and have won 4 of the last 5 times vs the WAC conference. New Mexico State is a paltry 11-25 vs winning teams and 2-8 as a home dog in this range and 5-24 as an underdog overall,losing 3 of the last 4 games vs Conference USA.
DC Riley
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Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens
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Tuesday night hosts a storied rival match between two teams currently occupying the Northeast division cellar. The 12-12-0-2 Canadiens are on a 2 game losing streak and are 2-3 last 5. The 6-11-5-2 Leafs had a 2 game win streak snapped by there Highway rivals the Buffalo Sabres last night. The Leafs who outshot the speedy Sabres 37-30 were shut-out 3-0 and now go into Montreal 7-19 LT26 on zero days rest and 17-36 LT53. Head to head Toronto has lost 2 straight in Overtime and are 0-3 LT3 and 4-6 LT10. Montreal has struggled lately and mainly due to injuries to many core players on both ends of the ice. Forwards B.Gionta, S.Gomez and M.D Agostini are all on the shelf and on D big tough penalty killing specialist Hal Gill and there #1 defenseman A.Markov. In goal Montreal has received solid goaltending with both keepers sporting below 3.00GAA and 0.909 Save %.
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In tonights match-up I see tremendous value in the underdog despite every trend pointing to Montreal. Toronto in there last 5 games have averaged 40 shots on goal with there constant fore- check and pressure. The relentless skating and speed has allowed the Leafs to play open creating a variety of scoring opportunities. Their power play is hitting at a very respectful 22.9% and there PK has started to improve. In goal look for veteran back-up MacDonald to give rookie net minder Jonas Gustavsson a rest and the leafs a enthusiastic performance.
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With Montreal missing many key players that play a 2 way game I see no threat for the Canadiens in either end. Montreal looking to stop the bleeding will play conservative and attack in the neutral zone to try and slow down the Leafs. Toronto can win this game with a physical presence as the Canadiens can be overwhelmed easily from the body. It should be noted that Toronto will not see Montreals enforcer G.Laraque as he is serving a suspension, I really see Toronto playing a strong game on both ends attacking with there strengths that Montreal cannot stop with there current roster situation. For Montreal to win they will need a huge performance from goaltender C.Price who will be see 35+ shots on goal.
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If history holds true we have a tremendous game that should end in dramatic fashion.
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Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs
MATT FARGO
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Arizona @ USC
PICK: Arizona +7.5
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If anyone was able to see Arizona last week against Arizona St., they saw the emotion that the Wildcats came out with. There was talk all week about how the Wildcats would some in soft after tough losses against California and Oregon, the latter taking any shot away from a trip to the Rose Bowl. However, they came out just the opposite and if not for a momentum shift in the third quarter, the Wildcats would have likely run away with the game. It was a win nonetheless and they can carry that momentum into their final game of the season against USC which will once again have bowl implications. A bigger bowl means more money and for Arizona, it is one of the few teams that need to rely on this money. Any money made during bowl season gets taken away from what needs to be raised by the staff and boosters and it is a significant chunk. That is a reason why you do not see this team give up late in the season and last year was a perfect example as was last weekend. Arizona could finish as high as a second-place tie and as low as sixth place depending on the outcome of this week’s Pac-10 games. The dream of the Rose Bowl was gone and the Wildcats could have easily folded but instead they rose to the occasion and I expect more of the same this coming weekend. The Trojans got by again last weekend over rival UCLA and you could see the emotion that they put into that game as it got pretty dicey near the end of the game. After a 4-1 start, the Trojans are 4-2 in their last six games but it is a very unimpressive 4-2. Three of those wins came by a touchdown or less while the two losses were by 27 and 34 points so this is not even close to the USC that we are used to. The Trojans outgained UCLA by only 14 total yards which actually snapped a streak of four straight games where they were actually outgained themselves. On the season, USC is +49.7 ypg in yardage differential, the first year since 2001 that the differential has been this low when it was outgained on the season. In contrast, the Wildcats are +96.2 ypg in differential and that is with playing a schedule ranked 12th in the nation compared to USC’s 10th ranked slate. The gap has been closing between these two teams. USC has won seven straight games in this series and Arizona lost the first three games after head coach Mike Stoops took over by a combined 111-33. But in 2006 it was just a 17-point game and the last two years have been wins by the Trojans by only seven points. Clearly those were better USC teams than what is on the field this season so it looks as though we are getting value on Arizona based on the USC name alone. USC is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a straight up win and 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after covering the spread. The Wildcats are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and they have covered four straight in this series, all as underdogs. 3* Arizona Wildcats
BIG AL
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Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors
Prediction: Washington Wizards
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This is a matchup between two teams that have been major disappointments on the season. Washington checks in with a 5-10 record, and the Wizards have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their 15 games. Toronto is a tad better at 7-11 but is on a three-game SU/ATS losing streak since its 123-111 home win over the Pacers. The problem for the Raptors has largely been on the defensive end. In its last nine games, Toronto has allowed all of its opponents to score over 100 points, and its last four have all scored over 110. That is good news for the Wizards, as Washington generally does pretty well when it puts the ball in the hoop. In games this season where the Wizards have scored 94 or more points, they're 5-2 and have only lost one game by more than three points. The Raptors are also 1-11 ATS after surrendering 105+ points over their previous three games, and 20-36 ATS off a straight-up loss. Take the points with the Wizards.
JIM FEIST
PHOENIX SUNS NEW YORK KNICKS
TAKE OVER
You will see a lot of things this game, but there's one thing you won't see: Defense. These teams are ranked in the Top 10 in points scored, and both in the bottom six in points allowed. The Knicks allow 109 ppg, third worst in the NBA, while the Suns are No. 1 in scoring (112 ppg) and shooting (50%). A huge edge here is the Phoenix three-point shooting, which is a sizzling 44% -- easily No. 1 in the league. The Knicks are poor at defensive rotations on the perimeter. Phoenix has been on a tear offensive during their 4-game win streak, scoring 117, 126, 120 and 113 points (2-1-1 over the total), while three of the last five games for the Knicks have gone over. You think NY coach Mike Dantoni is going to try and beat his old team by slowing the pace down? Play the Suns/Knicks Over the total.
EZWINNERS
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Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Purdue Boilermakers
Play: Purdue Boilermakers -10.5
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Wake Forest lost most of their talent from last seasons team with the exception of forward Aminu Al-Farouq. This years Demon Deacons team has a lot of question marks that should get exposed in this game against the Boilermakers. Wake is a poor shooting team from three point range and the free throw line and they don't play very much defense. Purdue retains its top six players from last year's 27 win team and this team is very solid defensively. They are a legit Final Four contender and should show it in this match up. Lay the points.
Drew Gordon
Miami at PORTLAND -7
14-6 roll L20 Free Plays! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Heat/Trail Blazers match up.
This match up posed several large problems for the Heat, but let's start with the most obvious: Miami is playing piss-poor basketball right now, going 3-6 SU and 1-8 ATS over their L9 games overall! Two of those three wins were in the final moments by just 1-point, so its conceivable the Heat could've gone 1-9 SUATS over that span. In other words, the line on this game may "seem" a bit steep, but fact is the Heat are playing garbage basketball right now.
The other issue facing the Heat is they simply do not match up well with the Trail Blazers, which is a reason Portland is 4-0 SUATS in their L4 meetings! Talented, athletic bigmen (Oden, Aldridge) ; a true star in Roy and a smart PG in Blake ; Coupled with a deep bench and a nasty habit of bringing their "A" game at the Rose Garden all tell me one thing: The Heat are in trouble tonight.
Finally, with the Blazers having lost two straight, including a home game to Memphis, we're actually seeing some value here. Quite frankly, I could easily see the Blazers winning this game by double-digits, but we get a relatively compact line thanks to their 2-game slide. Truth be told, Portland is an elite team at home, and right now the Heat are WAY overmatched in this contest. It doesn't help that the Blazers have also had more rest, and the Heat have huge games with Denver and the Lakers on deck over this road trip. In the end, this one gets ugly, as the Blazers snap their slide at the expense of the Heat.
Take Portland over Miami in this NBA match up.
2♦ PORTLAND
Bobby Maxwell
Wake Forest +9 at PURDUE
Scored the FREE winner Monday with St. Mary's as the Gaels went into San Jose State and got the win and cover. Tonight I've got another comp winner coming on the college hardwood as I grab the points with Wake Forest at Purdue.
After a humiliating loss on Saturday, I expect Wake Forest to come out tonight and play its best game of the young season. The Demon Deacons are 8-1 in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge and they are high flying and average 78.4 points a game.
Wake Forest has got some major scoring threats in Aminu Al-Farouq who is second in the ACC in scoring (18.8 ppg) and rebounding (11.2 rpg). He was just 4-of-18 from the field against William & Mary on Saturday but he did pull down 20 rebounds. Wake lost to William & Mary and they shot just 35.1 percent from the floor.
The Demon Deacons are 8-1 all-time in the Challenge and 3-1 on the road in the Challenge since its inception.
Purdue hasn’t been beating up on quality opposition so far this season, with its lone quality win this early season coming against Tennessee 73-72 on a neutral court. The Boilermakers are on ATS slides of 1-5 against ACC teams and 1-3-1 after a straight-up win.
Wake Forest sits on ATS runs of 5-1 as a ‘dog, 6-1 on Tuesdays, while Purdue is on a 1-5 ATS slide against ACC teams.
2♦ WAKE FOREST
James Patrick Sports
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Maryland vs. Indiana
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The ACC - Big Ten Challenge tips-off on Tuesday at Assembly Hall in Bloomington as HC Gary Williams comes calling with his Maryland Terrapins. Maryland returns every significant contributor from last season's NCAA Tournament team that lost to eventual runner-up Memphis in the second round. Not any great performances as of yet for the Turtles but our Tuesday selection in NCAA College Hoops is Maryland Turtles in this match-up. Beware the Turtles here.
LT Profits
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Wake Forest at Purdue
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The Purdue Boilermakers may be a perfect 5-0 and ranked fourth in the country, but the 4-1 Wake Forest Demon Deacons will be no pushovers in this Big Ten/ACC Challenge contest.
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Yes, Wake Forest got upset at home by William & Mary on Saturday, but they were no doubt already looking ahead to this battle after a 4-0 start and they will be much more focused tonight. The Demon Deacons are averaging 78.4 points per game and hitting a very nice 47.7 percent from the field, and their fast-break style could give the normally stiff Purdue defense fits.
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Yes, the Boilermakers have some excellent defensive numbers, but the only real opponent they have faced so far is Tennessee, and the Boilers barely escaped that game with a narrow 73-72 win, allowing a season high in points. Wake is just as athletic as Tennessee is, and if they can score around 70 points, then Purdue would have a difficult time covering this double-digit spread, considering that their offense is shooting a mediocre 44.7 percent from the floor.
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While we are not necessarily calling for an outright upset here in West Lafayette, we would not be totally shocked if Wake Forest did just that. In any event, we do see them sticking within single-digits for the entire game.
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Pick: Wake Forest +11
SPORTS WAGERS
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Columbus +2.30 over CHICAGO
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The Blackhawks are good, real good in fact and they have as good a chance as anyone to win the Stanley Cup. They have everything, speed, tons of talent, a great defense that can also move the puck out quickly, gritty players and a Bob Gainey type player in John Madden. Having said that, this tag on the Jackets is just too good to pass up on when you consider the situation and the fact that the Jackets are not easy to beat. Chicago returns home from a grueling six-game trip that took them through Western Canada for three games and to the West Coast for the other three for games in San Jose, Anaheim and Los Angeles. All that in 11 days and there’s a chance we could catch them a bit flat here. The Jackets broke an ugly four game losing streak with an impressive 5-2 win over the Blue Notes last night. A single win changes everything. It relieves some pressure, it instills confidence and when you have Rick Nash on your team and very good supporting cast, you can win on any given night. Yes, it’s going to be a tough win but the Jackets can do it and the tag seals the deal. Play: Columbus +2.30 (Risking 2 units).
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Los Angeles +1.20 over ANAHEIM
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When you wager on or against the Ducks you’re really never sure what you’re going to get. This team could look like one of the elites one night and a complete disaster the next. However, when you wager on the Kings, you’re almost guaranteed a strong effort and that makes them worthy of a look in this one. The thing that is really unappealing about the Ducks here is that they’ve been home far too long and in fact, this will be its seventh home game in a row. I’ve heard players and coaches both talk about how it’s not beneficial to be on such long home stands because the players come to practice and then go home to spend time with the wife and kids or girlfriend. On the road they hang together, eat together, win together and lose together and they’re always together. Thus, a good balance of home and road games works well but extended home stands usually do not. The Ducks are playing decent but they’re going to hit the road after this one and that is something they may be looking ahead to. The Kings remain focused and have played well on the road all year with nine wins in 15 games. Play: Los Angeles +1.20 (Risking 2 units).
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Ottawa +1.79 over SAN JOSE
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This is another one that can’t be ignored because the Sens are so capable of beating anyone. They have not played as good on the road as they have at home but that can change because this is a dangerous team that seems to be getting stronger all the time. It’s also worth noting that D-man Anton Volchenkov has missed 14 games with a dislocated right elbow and reports are that he will return here. That’s huge because Volchenkov is a great player and Ottawa’s best defenseman by far. The Sens have recent wins over Pittsburgh, 6-2, Buffalo, 5-3 and Washington, 4-3. They’ve won five of seven with only losses over that stretch coming against the Devils and Bruins. Incidentally, in that loss to the Bruisn they led 2-0 before running into some penalty trouble and that ultimately did them in. The Sharkies return home from a brief two game trip to Edmonton and Vancouver and that trip is never an easy one. Anyway, this isn’t about playing against the Sharks, It’s more about playing on the Sens and unless the situation is completely unfavorable, which this one is not, backing the Sens with a tag like this has to be considered very good value indeed. Play: Ottawa +1.79 (Risking 2 units).
MTi Sports
New Orleans Hornets at Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: New Orleans Hornets
The Lakers are off an easy win over the Nets in which they fired?em up from beyond the arc. LA made 13-of-25 three-pointers and Kobe Bryant was 5-of-8 from long range. This, actually, is the kiss-of-death for LA. The Lakers are 0-12 ATS at home with rest off of a game in which Kobe Bryant shot better than 50% from the arc and scored fewer than 40 points. As a team, LA is 0-11 ATS (-10.5 ppg) after a win against the Nets and 0-9 ATS (-9.2 ppg) sas a favorite with at most one day of rest after a game in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line. Grab the points.