Tom Freese
Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets
Prediction: Over
Denver is 27-14 OVER in home games after winning 5 or 6 of their last 7 games and they are 46-26 OVER at home on Tuesday. The Nuggets are 8-3 OVER vs. a team with a losing record and they are 4-1 OVER when their opponent scored 100 or more points in their last game. Golden St is 6-2 OVER with no rest and they are 35-17 OVER on Tuesday. The Warriors are 6-2 OVER after allowing 100 or more points in their last game and they are 5-2 OVER vs. an opponent who scored 100 who scored 100 points in their last game. PLAY ON 'OVER'
BEN BURNS
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Montreal Canadiens
PICK: Montreal Canadiens
The Canadiens, could really use a victory, as they're coming off back to back defeats. Those losses came against a pair of talented offensive teams, Washington and Pittsburgh. Both rank in the top four in the league in terms of goals scored, per game. The Pens average 3.2 gpg. while the Caps average a whopping 3.5. Tonight, they take a step down in class to face a Toronto team that averages only 2.7 gpg and which got blanked last night.
Including last night's loss, the Leafs are now a dismal 0-6 (-6.4) in division play. On the other hand, the Habs are a solid 4-1 (+3.5) in their divisional games. That includes a 2-0 mark against Toronto.
Some teams are good at bouncing back from a bad loss. Others respond well when playing the second of back to back games. Unfortunately, for Toronto fans, the Leafs don't fall into either of those categories. They're 1-7 this season when coming off a loss by two goals or more and they're also 1-3 when playing the second of back to back games. Looking back further and we find them at a money-burning 9-21 their last 30 when playing the second of back to back games. Given the situation, the price seems reasonable. Consider Montreal
Dave Price
1 Unit on the Boston Celtics -3
The Bobcats are playing well since adding Stephen Jackson to the lineup. They come into this one having won four in a row. But Boston has also won four in a row and I think the Celtics send a message to the Cats tonight. Charlotte has played Boston about as tough as any team in the East over the last couple seasons. Part of that is because the Celtics would overlook the Bobcats. But Boston did not overlook the Cats in the season's first meeting, crushing them 92-59. Charlotte has won 4 in a row, including a win over Cleveland, so the Celtics will not take this game lightly. Boston is 6-1 on the road this season and when it gets right down to it, the Celtics have too much talent and too much depth for the Bobcats to overcome. Boston is an impressive 18-6 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points (line -3.5 at some books) under coach Rivers, winning in these spots by an average score of 99 to 91.4. Take Boston.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Denver Nuggets -14
Off a home upset loss to the lowly T-Wolves, expect the Nuggets to roll at home tonight against a Warriors team that is just 2-7 on the road. Denver is 7-1 at home and winning by an average of 11.7 points. They should be able to cover the 14 points in this highly motivated spot against a Warrior team giving up 114.6 ppg on the road. Plus, the Warriors find themselves in a letdown spot after a blowout win over Indiana last night. The Nuggets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU loss and the Warriors are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Denver. Lay the points.
Jr Tips
HEAT at TRAIL BLAZERS
The Miami Heat haven't had much success over the past two weeks. They begin a four-game road trip tonight as they try to avoid losing for the sixth time in eight games tonight when they visit the Portland Trail Blazers who are seeking a fifth straight win in the series. Miami won seven of its first nine games to give it the second-best record in the Eastern Conference but has gone 2-5 since to drop four games and coming off a 92-85 loss to Boston on Sunday. Miami will face a Portland team that is allowing an average of 89.0 points, second lowest in the NBA. The Heat have shot 34.5 percent from the field and fell 106-68 in their last vist to Portland. The Trail Blazers have won six of seven at the Rose Garden although they loss 108-92 to Utah on Saturday, allowing the Jazz to shoot an opponent season-high 60.6 percent after losing the night before 106-96 to Memphis on Friday. The Blazers are rested after playing back to back games and 4 games last week. They will get back to playing Blazer defense and as always it will be tough for Miami to score against Portland as they play a slow tempo game which compliments their defense.
TAKE UNDER 184
Glenn McGrew
Hornets at Lakers
The Hornets are adjusting to life without Chris Paul, playing well, on a 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS run. They won straight up three times as a dog. This team has talent, with David West, newcomer Emeka Okafor and Darren Collison. The Lakers haven't had any competition of late, beating up on the Bulls, Thunder, Knicks, Warriors and Nets. LA has three losses (13-3), yet 14 of their 18 games (including this one) are at home. Play the Hornets.
Rocketman
Los Angeles @ Anaheim
Pick: Anaheim -130
Anaheim is 5-1 SU and ATS at home vs Los Angeles the past 3 years. Kings are 9-19 in their last 28 games as a road underdog. Kings are 16-35 in their last 51 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Kings are 2-5 in their last 7 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Kings are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a win. Ducks are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home favorite. Ducks are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a favorite. Ducks are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Ducks are 6-2 in their last 8 home games. Ducks are 7-3 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Favorite is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Home team is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings. Kings are 4-9 in the last 13 meetings. Kings are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in Anaheim. We'll recommend a small play on Anaheim tonight!
VEGAS EXPERTS
Michigan State at North Carolina
You can't fault the oddsmakers for favoring North Carolina here in Chapel Hill, but they are most certainly not the better team in this matchup. Michigan State has revenge for last year's poor performance in the NCAA Finals and most of the key cogs from that Tar Heels lineup have graduated. The Spartans are 14-5 ATS on the non-conference road. UNC is just 5-13 vs. the number in the home favorite role & 0-8 ATS at home off consecutive non-conference games!
Play on: Michigan State
Sports Gambling Hotline
Phoenix -7 at NEW YORK
We are on a 12-6 comp play run the last 18 days.
For Tuesday night, we will ride the 14-3 Suns to the win and cover at New York.
Phoenix is off to a 2-0 start both straight up, and against the spread on their current road trip, and the Suns have won 4 in a row overall as they hit the Garden hardwood tonight.
New York meanwhile, has dropped 5 in a row, and they have failed 2 of their last 3 when catching points.
The Suns have covered in 6 of their last 8 road games, and they have beaten back the Knicks in 5 of the last 6 tilts.
Things are going very well right now for the front-running Suns, and we do not see them slipping up against the 3-14 Knickerbockers.
Play on Phoenix minus the number.
5♦ PHOENIX
Karl Garrett
Washington at TORONTO -6
Winner on the Jazz last night to make it 2 in a row with my comp plays.
Tonight look for the Toronto Raptors to put a licking on the Washington Wizards.
Washington heads north of the border at just 2-6 both straight up, and against the spread on the road this season, while Toronto has been able to win and cover 5 of their first 8 at home this year.
The Raptors have dropped 3 straight, but that losing streak will come to a halt this evening against a Wizards team they have won 3 of their last 5 against, both straight up, and against the spread.
Until I see a little more consistency from Washington when they are away from home, I will go against them every chance I get, and tonight is one of those go against nights for me.
G-Man backing the Raptors minus the number.
2♦ TORONTO
Michael Cannon
Wake Forest +10' at PURDUE
I am 37-24-1 with my last 62 overall free plays.
Take the points with Wake Forest tonight on the road against Purdue.
We’re getting some good value with the Demon Deacons here. That’s because they went out and laid an egg on Saturday against William & Mary, losing 78-68 as a 16-point home chalk.
Wake Forest obviously will want to atone for that performance and you’re going to see a better effort out of them tonight.
Purdue hasn’t played a very tough schedule so far, with the exception of the Boilermakers’ 73-72 win over Tennessee on Nov. 23.
Wake Forest has cashed in six of its last seven games on Tuesday and five of its last six as an underdog.
The Boilers are on ATS slides of 1-3-1 after a SU win and 1-5 against the ACC.
Take the points as Wake Forest stays within the number.
2♦ WAKE FOREST
Chris Jordan
Utep at NEW MEXICO STATE +3
Playing New Mexico State tonight against the Miners, as it's pure home value in getting points with a quality basketball team that is slated to finish in the upper half of the Western Athletic Conference.
I know the Aggies are 2-3 in this young season, but I'd venture to say they've played tougher competition than UTEP has thus far.
Not an alarmingly competitve slab, but St. Mary's, New Mexico and Fullerton are all teams that challenge in their respective conferences and can be tough to play in the preseason.
They're most certainly a lot tougher than the likes of Texas Southern, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Arkansas State and North Carolina A&T - the quartet of cupcakes the Miners have faced.
The thing I like about the Aggies is familiarity, and how much of it they have this season. Coach Marvin Menzies returns his entire roster from the 2008-09 season, when the Aggies were the youngest team in the WAC.
Now with a year under their belt, I expect a lot more cohesiveness from thsi scrappy bunch.
UTEP gets a rude awakening before taking nearly two weeks off, as the Aggies should win this outright.
4♦ NEW MEXICO STATE
Dominic Fazzini
Michigan State +3 at NORTH CAROLINA
I dropped the ball Monday with my complimentary selection on Virginia, but I'm still on a 14-4 run with my free plays. And I'm going with today's marquee college basketball game to pick up a winner today!
Michigan State has been looking forward to today's game against North Carolina since the hurt of losing last season's national championship game wore off.
The Tar Heels dominated the Spartans in last season's 89-72 victory, jumping out to a 24-point lead in the first half and cruising the rest of the way. But there is going to be a much different UNC team that takes the floor tonight than the one that cut down the nets in April.
Gone are stars such as Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green, who combined for 64 of UNC's 89 points against Michigan State. Only two players -- senior Deon Thompson and sophomore Ed Davis -- played even 10 minutes against Michigan State in last season's title game, and this year's team is very inexperienced, though talent is there, as evidenced by the Heels' 6-1 record.
But while UNC is averaging 83.7 points per game, it is allowing 71 despite playing only two top-flight opponents (Ohio State, Syracuse) thus far. The Heels had trouble putting away Nevada at home Sunday, trailing 64-62 before pulling away for an 80-73 victory.
Michigan State returns seven players who played at least 12 minutes in last season's national title game, including leading scorer Kalin Lucas (17.2 ppg this season), who heads a strong backcourt that includes Durrell Summers (13.2 ppg) and Chris Allen (12.3 ppg) that should make up for UNC's size advantage up front.
The Spartans are averaging 86.2 ppg on 50.4 percent shooting, and have scored at least 74 points in every game this season. Michigan State is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 road games and brings significant experience and motivation into tonight's game. Take the Spartans to cover the points.
3♦ MICHIGAN STATE
Stephen Nover
Virginia Tech -3 at IOWA
To those paying early attention to the Big Ten Conference, it's frightening to see how bad Iowa is this season.
The Hawkeyes are off to their worst start since 1929-30. They are 1-5 against the spread. The Hawkeyes struggled against North Carolina Central at home in their last game, winning by 10 as a 24-point favorite.
Now they have to step up and face an athletic ACC team playing basically a seven-man rotation. Look for Iowa to have problems trying to stop guard Malcom Delaney, who is the ACC's leading returning point-producer. He's averaging 21.8 points per game this season.
The spread is low because Iowa is home. But the crowd is going to be small and apathetic.
Virginia Tech isn't much either, but the Hokies still are better than the Hawkeyes.
3♦ VIRGINIA TECH
Jeff Benton
Virginia Tech -3 at IOWA
Hope you took advantage of Monday's 5♦ freebie winner on the Saints-Patriots UNDER the total. For Tuesday’s free play, I’ll go to college basketball and take Virginia Tech at Iowa.
This is a total go-against play with the Hawkeyes, who are just plain awful. Already this year, they’ve lost to Texas-San Antonio and Duquesne at home, as well as fourth-ranked Texas and Wichita State in a neutral-site preseason tournament. Most disturbingly, Iowa got blown out in three of those four games, losing by 12 to Texas-San Antonio, by 25 to Texas and by 17 to Wichita State.
The one positive for Iowa? It is coming off a victory, beating North Carolina Central 73-63 on Saturday. But even that win wasn’t impressive, because the Hawkeyes – despite a 1-5 record – were 24-point favorite over North Carolina Central and didn’t even come close to covering the spread. That makes Iowa 1-6 ATS in its last seven games going back to last season, and it has also failed to cover in its last five games as an underdog.
As for Virginia Tech, granted, it has failed to cover in five straight games going back to last year, but they were big favorites in three of those contests. Tonight, the Hokies are a very manageable chalk, and the bottom line is Duquesne and Texas-San Antonio can go into Iowa City and handle Iowa, so too can a quality ACC team with a very good, very underrated coach in Seth Greenberg.
4♦ VIRGINIA TECH